Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:06 UTC
Downtrend from late-August peak, now basing in a range · RSI 42 · price 4,162.49
Lower highs since 4696.74; 4066–4227 range for three weeks.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4696.74 peak on 25 Aug. The 28 Sep breakdown below 4250 turned the decline into a 4066–4227 range that has held for three weeks, with price below EMA(20) and a rolling-over EMA(50). Daily highs keep stalling at the range top, close to the 23.6% retracement of the Aug–Oct drop. Buyers defended the range low on 7 Oct and again after the hot CPI print on 14 Oct. Thursday's rebound came as Treasury yields slid despite the PPI beat.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,307.26
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4227 range top breaks the range and opens the fib 38.2 at 4307
- Lower-high trendline from 4510.88 sits near 4200 and is capping recent daily highs
- Daily close below the 4066 range low would extend the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych and the 3942 june low
- Fed Chair Warsh speaks in about 6h; a shift in October hike odds could materially change this read
- FOMC on 27–28 Oct is the overarching catalyst for a range resolution
17:51 UTC
Downtrend since late August, basing in a range · RSI 43 · price 4,147.10
LH/LL from the 4697 Aug peak; 4066–4227 range since 28 Sep.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 4697 peak on 25 Aug, with the 4400 sept high on 18 Sep marking the last lower high before the 28 Sep breakdown. Price has since held a three-week 4066–4227 range, with the range top capping four daily attempts and price trading below a declining EMA(50) near 4237. This week's hot CPI print drove a test toward the range low at 4074 before falling yields lifted price back to 4147, and RSI near 43 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.60
Resistance: 4,227.30, 4,237.00, 4,399.50
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4227 range top and the ema50 near 4237 would break the lower-high trendline structure, with the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct decline at 4307 next
- Close below the 4066 range low exposes the 4000 round number and the 3943 june low
- Reclaim of the 4400 sept high needed to invalidate the downtrend read
- Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read after hot PPI lifted October hike odds