21:07 UTC
Downtrend since late-August peak, now basing in a range · RSI 47 · price 4,165.79
Lower highs from 4697; three-week range 4066–4227 below EMA20/EMA50.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 25 Aug peak at 4697. The 28 Sep breakdown below the mid-September lows shifted the market into a three-week range between the 4066 range low and the 4227 range top, with price below a falling EMA(50) near 4245 and the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Oct decline at 4307 untested. This week saw a rejection near 4200, then a hot CPI drove a dip to 4073 that held above the range low. A roughly 10bp drop in US yields lifted price back to 4166, still beneath EMA(20) near 4199 and the descending lower-highs line.
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,307.26, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4227 range top and the lower-highs line would challenge the downtrend read and opens the 38.2% fib at 4307
- A daily close below the 4066 range low would extend the lower-low sequence and expose the july low at 3942
- Recovery beyond the sept highs near 4400 would mark a full structural reversal of the Aug–Oct decline
- US housing starts (Tue) and S&P Global PMIs (Fri Oct 23) feed October FOMC hike pricing, which is currently 16%, and could break the range either way