21:07 UTC
Downtrend from August peak, ranging through October · RSI 44 · price 4,185.93
Lower highs from 4697; 4066–4228 range below falling EMA50.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 25 Aug peak at 4697, and the 28 Sep drop through 4250 flipped the D1 trend down, with price now below a falling EMA(50) near 4229. October has settled into a 4066–4228 range: the range floor near 4070 held twice, while the range top caps alongside EMA(50) and the descending lower-high line. Price is sitting just above the 78.6% retracement of the August rally. Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales run triggered a rally as yields eased, but it stalled below 4200 with 10y yields still above 5%, and gold booked a modest weekly loss.
Support: 4,070.00, 4,000.00, 3,943.00
Resistance: 4,228.00, 4,316.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
- D1 close above the 4228 range top and EMA(50) would break the lower-high line and open the 4316 breakdown level, then the 4400 lower high
- D1 close below the 4070 range floor confirms a range break toward the 4000 round number and the 3943 july low
- Fri Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations: hot prints that revive October hike odds could materially shift this read
- A further leg higher in the 10y yield from 5.14% would keep pressure on the range top