Gold has held a 4066–4227 range since the late-September sell-off. Highs are stepping lower at 4227, 4217 and 4199 while the range low printed a higher low at 4073, so the range is contracting. Thursday's rebound from that low followed the hot PPI and retail-sales run, but it has faded back below the EMA20/50 cluster near 4157. Price is now testing the 50% fib of the 4073–4199 rebound at 4136, with 10y yields at 5.14% weighing, and ATR(14) near 2550 pips sits well below late-September levels, consistent with compression.
Support: 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,157.00, 4,198.77, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
An H4 close below 4136 (50% fib) opens the path to the 4104–4110 swing low and the 4066–4073 range low
A close back above the 4157 ema cluster and the lower-high trendline near 4190 would break the lower-high sequence and put the 4227 range high back in play
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
Multi-week range 4066–4227 with lower highs since late Sept.
Gold has held a 4066–4227 range for three weeks after the late-September gap lower. Highs have stepped down from the 4227 range top to the 4198.77 lower high and 4190 this week. The mid-month dip to 4073 was bought as the AI-led equity selloff dragged yields lower, despite hot PPI. Price has now slipped back below EMA20 and EMA50, which sit flat and close together, and sits near the 50% retracement of that 4073–4199 swing. ATR(14) near 2,750 pips is well below its late-September level, so the range is compressing beneath the falling trendline.
Support: 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,198.77, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4130 swing low exposes the 4066–4073 range low
Close above the 4198.77 lower high breaks the falling trendline; 4227 range top is the larger cap
Fri S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and USD
13:06 UTC
Sideways, lower highs compressing the range · RSI 52 · price 4,160.56
4066–4227 range since late September; lower highs at 4227, 4217 and 4199 against a twice-held range low at 4066/4073.
After the late-September slide from 4376, gold has rotated inside a 4066–4227 range for three weeks. The range low at 4066/4073 has been defended twice, while successive lower highs at 4227, 4217 and 4199 are tightening the box. Hot PPI and retail sales were shrugged off as falling yields and the AI-led equity selloff drove last week's rebound toward the 4199 lower high. Price now sits on flat EMA20/EMA50 near 4160, with ATR(14) around 2,750 pips, well below early-October expansion, and the 38.2% fib of the 4073–4199 leg near 4151 lines up with the 4147 swing low.
Support: 4,147.20, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,198.80, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4199 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 4227 range top in play
Failure to hold the 4147 swing low exposes the 4130 higher low, then the 4066 range low
Fri Oct 23 S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
09:05 UTC
Sideways, rebounding toward range top · RSI 58 · price 4,175.37
Three-week range 4066-4227, lower highs and higher lows converging.
Gold has held a 4066-4227 range since the late-September gap lower. The post-CPI dip to the 4073.55 cpi low was absorbed as falling yields and a softer USD lifted it back above 4150. Swing highs at 4227, 4217 and the 4198.77 week high are drifting lower while lows are rising off the cpi low, so the range is narrowing and price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 28 dollars is off the late-September expansion, consistent with compression rather than a trending phase.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,198.77, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4198.77 week high and the 4227.28 range top would end the three-week range
Failure to hold the 4150 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 4073.55 cpi low
Fri Oct 23 S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift the read via Fed hike pricing
4066-4227 range; lower highs at the top, higher low at the base.
After the late-September slide from 4350, gold has spent three weeks in a 4066-4227 range. The hot US CPI print knocked it to the 4073.55 cpi low. It then rebounded as falling yields and AI-led equity weakness pushed the USD lower, leaving a higher low against the 4066.52 range low and a tentative double bottom. Highs are compressing, though, from the 4227.28 range top to the 4217.25 prior high and now the 4198.77 lower high. Price sits just above flattening EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR near 30 dollars, so the range is narrowing rather than trending.
Support: 4,147.00, 4,073.55, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,198.77, 4,217.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4198.77 lower high breaks the descending-highs line; acceptance above the 4227.28 range top would mark a range break higher
Failure to hold the 4147 swing low exposes the fib 61.8% near 4121 and the 4073.55 cpi low
A break below the 4066.52 range low would void the double bottom and resume the September decline
Fri Oct 23 S&P PMIs and UoM 5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Range 4066–4227, lower highs compressing toward higher-low shelf.
Gold has held a 4066–4227 range since the late-September slide. The range floor at 4066/4074 has been tested twice, and highs have stepped lower from the 4227 range top to the 4199 lower high. The rebound from Wednesday's CPI-driven low, extended by the yield drop despite hot PPI, has built higher lows near 4155 and is now pressing the 78.6% fib of the 4217–4074 drop, with price above flat, converging EMA20/EMA50. ATR(14) near 30 has compressed from the late-September expansion, leaving price squeezed between the lower-highs line and the higher-low shelf.
Support: 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,198.77, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4199 lower high and the lower-highs line breaks the descending cap and opens the 4227 range top
Loss of the 4155 higher low exposes the 4130 swing low, then the 4066–4074 range floor
Thu jobless claims and Fri PMIs / UoM 5y inflation expectations could move real yields and shift this read ahead of the Oct 27–28 FOMC
Hormuz/Iran headlines at the open could lift USD and test the higher-low shelf