XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in early Asia · RSI 35 · price 4,134.78
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open high at 4190.31.
Rejection at 4190.31 at the London open started the London-NY selloff. NY broke the 4150 range floor as oil-driven yield gains firmed the USD, and the 4149.38 bounce failed. Early Asia Tuesday has extended the lower highs below Monday's 4136.60 prior low to a new session low at 4132.89, with RSI(14) near 35, not yet stretched.
Support: 4,132.89, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4132.89 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4130 round number
A close back above the 4136.60 prior low, then the 4142.92 reopen high, would break the lower highs sequence
Reclaiming the 4150 range floor would mark the break as a false break; that level sits near the 38.2% of the London-NY selloff
Oil and 10y yield headlines can move this; Tue US housing data at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
Lower-high chain from 4190.31; new session low below prior-day low.
London faked above the Asian range to 4190.31, then the sell-off broke the 4150 range floor during NY hours as WTI near $99 lifted 10y yields to 5.144%. Early Asia has extended the lower highs below Monday's 4136.60 prior low to a 4132.89 session low, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,132.89, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 4136.60 prior low keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a close above the 4142.92 session high breaks it
4130 round number is the next reference below the 4132.89 session low
Reclaim of the 4150 range floor would turn the NY break into a false break
Any leg higher in the 10y yield or WTI extends the oil-to-yields pressure on gold; a pullback in either eases it
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low in early Asia · RSI 30 · price 4,133.16
Lower highs from 4190.31 London high; Monday low 4136.60 broken.
Lower highs have stacked since the 4190.31 London high. NY broke the 4150 range floor as WTI near $99 lifted 10y yields to 5.144%. Early Asia session has now broken Monday's 4136.60 prior low to a session low at 4133.07, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 4,133.07, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4136.60 prior low would make the Asia break a false break
Reclaim of the 4142.92 session high breaks the lower-highs chain, with the 4150 range floor above
RSI(14) sub-20 would flag a stretched move; the 4100 round number is the next marked level below
Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts/Permits; oil and 10y yield moves remain the main driver
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4190 failed break; pressing the day low in early Asia.
London's push above Monday's Asian range to 4190.31 failed. The NY-open break through 4158.8 accelerated the slide as firmer oil lifted yields and the USD. Early Asia has set a lower high at 4142.9, the Asia high, under the 4149.4 swing high. Price is now probing the 4136 day low, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 4,136.10, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,142.90, 4,149.40
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 4136 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4130 round number
M15 close above the 4149.4 swing high, through the lower-high trendline, negates the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 4142.9 Asia high would turn the day-low probe into a false break
Moves in the 10y yield and WTI remain the driver in thin Asia hours
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, pressing the day low · RSI 36 · price 4,137.15
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4190 London-open high.
Gold faded from the London-open high at 4190.31, and the NY open drove it through the 4150 range floor as firmer oil lifted the 10y yield to 5.144%. The lower-high trendline still caps every bounce. Early Asia trade is back on the 4136.60 day low, with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,130.00
Resistance: 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136.60 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4130 round number
Thin early Asia: the 4142.92 session high is the first cap overhead
Reclaiming the 4150 range floor and the lower-high trendline breaks the downtrend read
A rebound that stalls at the 38.2% fib near 4157 keeps the sequence intact
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits, plus WTI and 10y yield moves, could shift this read
Lower highs from 4190.31; NY broke 4150, now compressing 4136.60–4149.38.
London was rejected at 4190.31 and set a lower-high line. NY then broke the asian low at 4165.71, the london low at 4158.76 and the 4150 range floor, as WTI near $99 lifted the 10y yield to 5.14% and supported the USD. Since then price has compressed between the 4136.60 day low and the 4149.38 bounce high, which capped at the 23.6% of the london-ny drop. Early Asia trade is thin near 4141, with RSI(14) around 36.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.38, 4,158.76, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.38 bounce high / 4150 range floor breaks the lower-high line and opens the 4158.76 london low
Failure to hold the 4136.60 day low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the 4165.71 asian low would negate the London-NY breakdown
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits could jolt yields and this range
London's push to 4190.31 was a false break of the Asian high, and the NY open broke the 4150 range floor as oil-driven yields hit 5.14%, printing a session low at 4136.60. The rebound high at 4149.38 stalled at the 23.6% fib, just under the range floor, and price is now drifting near 4141 after the reopen. The descending trendline from the London high still caps each bounce.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.38, 4,150.00, 4,158.76
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor and the 4149.38 rebound high negates the breakdown read
Break below the 4136.60 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery to the 4158.76 london low would test the descending trendline
Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts/Permits and any WTI or 10y yield move could shift this read
22:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum stalling near the low · RSI 45 · price 4,140.45
Lower highs from 4190.31, base forming at 4136.60–4137.70.
London's push to 4190.31, above the Asian range high, failed. The NY open then broke the 4158.70 pre-NY low and took gold under the $4,150 range floor as oil-driven yield gains lifted the USD. Late NY trades just above the 4136.60 session low after a bounce stalled at 4149.70, the 23.6% retracement of the London-NY drop and a touch of the lower-highs line. RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.70, 4,158.70
What it said to watch
A close below the 4136.60 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery above 4149.70, the range floor, and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday down-structure; 4158.70 pre-NY low sits above that
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and a further rise in the 10y yield from 5.14% could shift this read
Lower highs from London peak; late-NY band 4136.6–4150.
Gold reversed from the 4190.3 London high, then lost the 4158.8 London low and the 4150 range floor at the NY open as firmer oil lifted yields and the USD. Late NY compressed into a 4136.6–4150 band, with the session low retested into the close and RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.80
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4150 range floor turns the break into a false break; the 4158.8 London low near the 38.2% of the London-NY drop is next overhead
Failure to hold the 4136.6 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead of Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; no scheduled US events in the next 8h
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 45 · price 4,140.45
Lower highs from 4190.31 London high; tight 4136–4149 box in late NY.
Gold slipped below the Asian low at 4165.71 during London and broke the London low and the 4150 range floor in NY as higher yields and firmer oil weighed, printing a day low at 4136.60. The late-NY bounce saw rejection at 4149.38, a lower high at the 23.6% retracement of the London-NY drop. Price is back pressing the day low into the Asia open, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.38, 4,158.76, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4136.60 day low extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence
Close above the 4149.38 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and reclaims the 4150 floor
Reclaiming the 4158.76 london low would neutralise the NY breakdown; 4165.71 asian low above that
Thin Asia-open liquidity; 10y yield at 5.14% and WTI near $99 remain the drivers, with Tue 12:30 UTC housing data next
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling near the lows · RSI 47 · price 4,140.45
Lower highs under 4150, holding above the 4136.60 day low.
Gold has fallen about $54 from London's 4190.31 high. London broke the 4165.71 Asian low, and the NY open extended the slide through the $4,150 range floor to a 4136.60 day low, as firmer oil and a 5.14% 10y yield lifted the USD. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 4149.38 swing high, the 23.6% retrace of the drop. Lower highs since keep price pressed against the descending line at about 4142 into the end of the NY session.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.38, 4,158.76
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.38 swing high and back over the $4,150 range floor would undo the breakdown, with the 4158.76 pre-NY low next overhead
Failure to hold the 4136.60 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Close through the descending line near 4142 would end the lower-high chain since London
Further rise in the 10y yield above 5.144% or WTI holding $99+ could extend the move away from $4,150 during the Asia session
21:06 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near the day low · RSI 37 · price 4,140.45
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; Asian range broken lower.
London set the session high at 4190.31 and reversed, then took out the Asian range low (4165.71) and the London low at 4158.76 into the NY open. Rising yields and WTI near $99 pushed gold under the $4,150 range floor. The bounce from the 4136.60 day low stalled at 4149.38, at the 23.6% of the 4190–4136 drop, and late-NY price is back testing the day low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.76
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor and the lower-high line would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4136.60 day low extends the lower-low chain; a hold would mark a second test of the level
Reclaim of the 4158.76 london low would put price back toward the broken Asian range
Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts/Permits and any further move in the 10y yield off 5.144% could shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 39 · price 4,138.25
Lower-high/lower-low chain; late-NY bounce capped, retesting NY low.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4190.31 London-open high. The NY open broke the 4158.76 London low and extended to the 4136.60 NY low as WTI near $99 lifted the 10y yield and USD. The late-NY bounce was rejected at the 4149.38 bounce high, just under the 4150 range floor and the 23.6% fib, and price is back retesting the NY low with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.38, 4,158.76, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136.60 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4149.38 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4158.76 london low next overhead
Reclaim of the 4165.71 asian low, near the 50% fib, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Daily rollover is due in the next bar, so thin liquidity can distort ranges
Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts/Permits and oil-to-yields headlines could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; Asian range broken lower.
London set the session high at 4190.31 and reversed. Price broke the 4165.71 Asian low before NY extended the slide to a 4136.60 session low, as WTI near $99 lifted the 10y yield to 5.144%. The late-NY bounce stalled at 4149.38, under the $4,150 range floor and near the 23.6% retrace, and price is now drifting back toward the session low with RSI(14) at 42, not stretched.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.38, 4,157.12, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
A break below the 4136.60 session low extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 4149.38 bounce high and the lower-high line breaks the intraday sequence; fib 38.2 at 4157.12 and the Asian low at 4165.71 sit above
Any further rise in the 10y yield or WTI is the main intraday driver; Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts is the next scheduled US data
Lower highs from the London-open peak; range floor at 4150 lost, bounce capped below it.
Gold topped at 4190.31 at the London open, broke the asian low near 4165.71 in London and slid through the 4150 range floor during NY hours as WTI near $99 pushed the 10y to 5.144% and firmed the USD. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 4148.70 bounce high, a retest of the range floor from below, and price is now back near the 4136.60 session low with RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,148.70, 4,150.00, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
Close below the 4136.60 session low extends the lower-high, lower-low chain
Close back above the 4150 range floor and the 4148.70 bounce high breaks the descending highs line
Recovery through the asian low at 4165.71 would neutralise the day's breakdown
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and any further 10y yield move above 5.144% could shift this read
Lower highs since London, range floor broken and retested from below.
Gold broke the london low at 4158.76 and the 4150 range floor at the NY open as rising yields on higher oil lifted the USD, printing a session low at 4136.60. The rebound stalled at 4149.38, the 23.6% of the day drop fib and just under the range floor. Price is now leaning on the 4141 micro floor in a thin late-NY tape, with lower highs intact since the Asian-session high at 4190.
Support: 4,141.40, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.76
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold 4136.60 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Break of the lower highs trendline from 4190 would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts and permits are a medium-impact risk to the USD and yields
Lower highs from London high, Asian range broken lower, NY low 4136.60 holding.
Rejection at the 4190.31 London high turned into a slide through the asian low (4165.7) and the london low, then below the 4150 range floor in NY as oil-driven yields climbed to 5.14%, printing a ny low at 4136.60. The bounce stalled at the bounce high near 4149.4, right at the 23.6% fib. Price is drifting at the 4141.5 micro low late in the NY session, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,141.50, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.40, 4,158.80, 4,165.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.4 bounce high and the 4150 range floor negates the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4136.60 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 4158.8 london low would put the asian low at 4165.7 back in play
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and any further rise in the 10y yield could shift this read
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 46 · price 4,143.80
Lower highs from 4190 session high; tight 4141–4149 box under range floor.
London sold off from the 4190.31 session high and broke the asian low at 4165.70. NY extended the slide through the $4,150 range floor as WTI near $99 lifted 10y yields to 5.144%. The NY-afternoon day low at 4136.60 held, and the bounce stalled at the 4149.40 bounce high, the 23.6% fib, leaving price compressing above the 4141.50 late low.
Support: 4,141.50, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.40, 4,157.10, 4,165.70
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4149.40 bounce high and the $4,150 floor opens the fib 38.2 retrace at 4157.10
Break of the 4141.50 late low exposes the 4136.60 day low; a close below extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 4165.70 asian low would negate the London-NY downtrend read
Another leg higher in the 10y yield from 5.144% or WTI holding above $99 keeps pressure on the range floor
Lower highs below Asian low; tight 4136–4150 base in NY.
London open briefly lifted gold above the Asian high to 4190.31 before reversing. Price broke the asian low at 4165.70 and then slid through the 4158.70 breakdown pivot and the $4,150 floor in early NY as oil-driven yields (10y 5.144%) firmed the USD. Late NY is basing between the 4136.60 session low and a 4149.40 bounce high, which sits at the 23.6% fib of the 4190–4136 leg, with lower highs still capping.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,149.40, 4,158.70, 4,165.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.40 bounce high and the lower highs trendline would break the late-NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4136.60 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of 4158.70 breakdown, near the 38.2% fib, would put the asian low at 4165.70 back in play
Asia session open could set a new range; WTI and Middle East headlines remain the yield driver for gold
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 50 · price 4,145.25
Lower highs since the 4190 London high; tight 4143–4149 consolidation above the session low.
London faded a false break of the Asian high near 4190. NY broke the 4158.7 shelf at 13:30 UTC and ran to a 4136.60 session low as the oil-driven yield rebound firmed USD. The late-NY bounce off the NY base near 4142.9 is stalling below the 4150 range floor and EMA20, with lower highs intact.
Support: 4,142.90, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.70, 4,165.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4150 range floor breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4158.7 breakdown level, near the 38.2% retrace of the drop at 4157.
Loss of the 4136.60 session low resumes the downtrend leg.
Asian low at 4165.7 now caps from above; a reclaim would negate the range break.
10y yield vs 5.144% and WTI / Middle East headlines are the live drivers, with no US data in the next 8h.
Range break lower, lower highs since London open, retest of 4150 from below.
The Asian bid was capped at 4190.31 at London open, and lower highs followed. NY broke the 4158.69 breakdown level and the $4,150 range floor as an oil-driven yield rebound (10y 5.144%) firmed the USD, extending to a 4136.60 session low. The late-NY bounce is stalling at 4148.70, just under the range floor and the lower-highs line, with the 4143.53 pullback low beneath.
Support: 4,143.53, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.69, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor and the lower-highs line weakens the breakdown read
Rejection at 4150 followed by a break of the 4143.53 pullback low puts the 4136.60 session low back in play
Reclaim of the 4158.69 breakdown level reopens the 4165.71 Asian low
10y yield vs 5.144% and WTI near $99 remain the main drivers into Asia
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits could shift the read at the next NY open
Lower highs from 4190.31 session high; broken floor at 4150 now overhead.
Gold faded from the 4190.31 session high at London open as yields and USD firmed. It broke the asian low at 4165.71 in London, then the 4150 broken floor in the first hour of NY, printing a day low of 4136.60. The late-NY bounce stalled at 4148.70, a bounce high just under the broken floor and the descending line, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 4,142.90, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,148.70, 4,150.00, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4150 and the descending line would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the ny shelf near 4142.9 puts the 4136.60 day low back in play
A break below the 4136.60 day low extends the lower-low chain into the Asian session
Tue US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift yields and this read
Lower highs from 4190.31, lows to 4136.60; bounce testing 4150.40 lower high.
London faded a marginal break of the Asian high to 4190.31. NY open then took gold through the $4,150 floor to a 4136.60 day low as USD and yields regained footing. The late-NY bounce has reclaimed ema20 near 4145 and is pressing the 4150.40 lower high, close to the 23.6% retrace of the London high–day low drop.
Support: 4,145.00, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.40, 4,158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4150.40 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 4158.70 london low and the 38.2% retrace near 4157 in view
Loss of ema20 near 4145 and a break of the 4136.60 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Tue US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
Lower highs from the 4190.31 London high; Asian range broken lower, price back inside the 4142.9–4150.4 box.
London open pushed above the Asian high to 4190.31, failed there and reversed. The Asian low at 4165.7 and the London low at 4158.7 then gave way into the NY open as USD and yields firmed, extending to a 4136.60 session low. The late-NY bounce has carried back into the 4142.9–4150.4 box, with RSI(14) near 45 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 4,142.87, 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.41, 4,158.69, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
A close above the 4150.4 box high and the 23.6% fib near 4149 opens the London low at 4158.7, where the lower-high trendline from 4190 also sits.
Failure to hold the 4142.9 box low exposes the 4136.60 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain.
Recovery above the Asian low at 4165.7 would neutralise the session downtrend read.
A further rise in the 10y yield above 5.13% keeps pressure on the $4,150 area into the Asia session.
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken lower.
London open briefly pushed above the Asian high to 4190.31, then reversed. The selling broke the Asian low near 4165.7 and the london low at 4158.76, and NY extended through the $4,150 floor to a 4136.60 session low as the USD and yields regained footing. Late-NY bounce stalled at 4146.32 (bounce high), still capped by the descending trendline off the London highs.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,146.32, 4,150.00, 4,158.76
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 floor would undercut the breakdown read
Break of the 4136.60 session low extends the lower-low chain
Descending trendline near 4154 and the 38.2% fib of the 4190–4136 leg (~4157) sit just under the london low at 4158.76
Asia session open may stay quiet; no scheduled US data until Tuesday's 12:30 UTC housing releases
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 4,141.77
Lower highs from 4190 London high; post-NY breakdown base 4136–4150.
London opened with a false break of the Asian high to 4190.31. A chain of lower highs then gave way to a NY-open drop through the $4,150 broken floor as USD and yields regained footing, printing a session low at 4136.6. Price is now compressing in a tight 4136–4150 band below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 42 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 4,136.60
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.70, 4,177.08
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 broken floor would neutralise the breakdown and put the 4136–4150 band in range terms
A break of the 4136.6 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 4158.7 london low, near the 38.2% fib at ~4157, brings the lower-highs trendline (~4155) and the 4177 lower high into play
Tue 12:15–12:30 UTC ADP and housing data are the next scheduled risk; a renewed rise in US yields keeps pressure on the floor
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4190 London high; 4150 range floor broken.
London rejected the 4190.31 day high and broke below the Asian range. NY then cut through the 4150 range floor as the 10y yield rebounded to 5.13% and USD firmed. Late NY is printing a lower high at 4144.86 under the descending trendline, with the session low at 4136.92 and RSI(14) near 31, soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,136.92, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,144.86, 4,150.00, 4,158.69
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4150 range floor would read as a false break of the range
Holding below the 4144.86 lower high and the descending trendline keeps the lower-high chain intact
A break of the 4136.92 session low extends the leg, with the 4100 dip demand zone the next reference
A reclaim of the 4158.69 london low and the 38.2% retrace (~4157) would neutralise the selloff structure
Tue 12:30 UTC housing data and moves in the 10y yield could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the 4150 range floor, tight late-NY drift.
Gold was rejected at 4190.31 in early London. It then slid through the Asian low, Friday's low at 4155.84 and the 4150 range floor into the NY open as the yield rebound firmed USD. Price is now drifting in a series of lower highs into a 4137.35 session low, with RSI(14) near 35 and no oversold reading.
Support: 4,137.35, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,150.06, 4,155.84, 4,167.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor would turn the NY-open break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4137.35 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 4100 round number the next marked level
Lower-highs trendline from 4190 (4177, 4167 lower high) now sits near the 4155 friday low; rebounds stalling there keep the sequence intact
A further rise in the US 10y yield from 5.13% would add pressure on the session low
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open high, below the broken 4150 range floor.
Gold stepped down from the 4190.31 London open high and broke the $4,150 range floor in the first hour of NY. It also cleared the friday low and london low, and is printing a 4138.85 session low, with RSI(14) near 29. A firmer USD and the 10y back at 5.13% have capped each bounce, with the lower-highs trendline still intact.
Support: 4,138.85
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,155.80, 4,158.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4138.85 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the lower-highs trendline (~4153) and the friday low at 4155.8 would end the intraday downtrend read; the london low at 4158.8 sits just above
Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts/Permits is the next scheduled USD risk; quiet calendar until then
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 26 · price 4,141.92
Asian range broken lower, NY base near session low.
London's poke above the Asian range high stalled at 4190.31 and was rejected. Lower highs followed through the day, and the NY open broke the 4158.7 London low and the $4,150 range floor as USD steadied with the 10y back near 5.13%. Price is now holding just above the 4138.85 session low with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 4,138.85
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.70, 4,165.70
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4138.85 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 4150 range floor would flag the NY breakdown as a possible false break
Close back above the 4158.7 london low (38.2% fib) undermines the downtrend read; the 4165.7 asian low sits near the 50%
US 10y holding above ~5.1% keeps the pressure on; a yield slide could shift this read
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, basing after the NY open selloff · RSI 32 · price 4,143.94
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high; Asian range and 4150 floor broken.
London set the session high at 4190.31, then a lower-high chain took gold through the Asian low at 4165.7 and broke the $4,150 range floor at the NY open as USD and yields found footing. Since then price has held a tight NY shelf at 4142–4139 just above the 4138.85 session low, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR around $6.
Support: 4,142.05, 4,138.85
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,158.70, 4,165.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor puts the pre-NY low at 4158.7, also the 38.2% fib, back in play
Break below the 4138.85 session low extends the lower-low chain after London close
Close above the lower-high trendline from the London high breaks the intraday downtrend sequence
Asian low at 4165.7 is the reclaim that would neutralise today's breakdown
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4190 London rejection; NY broke the 4150 range floor.
London was rejected at 4190.31, broke below the Asian low at 4165.71, and the NY open took out the London low and the $4,150 range floor as USD and yields found footing. Price has since printed a fresh session low at 4139.64 after London close. RSI(14) near 25 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 4,139.64, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,150.41, 4,158.69, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4150 range floor would turn the break into a false break
A hold below the 4158.69 London low, which sits near the 38.2% fib, keeps the lower-highs sequence intact; reclaiming the 4165.71 Asian low invalidates it
Acceptance below the 4139.64 session low leaves little intraday structure before the 4100 demand zone
Thin late-NY and Asia session trade can exaggerate moves around 4140
Lower highs from London's 4190 top; NY broke the Asian range low and is coiling in a 4142–4150 flag.
London faded from a 4190.31 session high in a chain of lower highs. The NY open bar then broke the 4158.76 london low and the 4150 range floor, with the NY open high at 4167.21 capping. Gold printed a 4142.05 session low as USD and yields found footing, and has since coiled in a tight 4142–4150 flag with RSI(14) near 27, short of an extreme.
Support: 4,142.05, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,150.41, 4,158.76, 4,167.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150.41 broken floor neutralises the flag. The 4158.76 london low is the next cap, then 4167.21 ny open high.
Close below the 4142.05 session low extends the lower-low chain. Little intraday structure sits between there and the 4100 psych level.
The lower-highs trendline from London (~4161 now) and the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY drop (~4160.5) cap rebounds. Real yields remain the driver into Tuesday's 12:30 UTC housing data.
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY breakdown · RSI 32 · price 4,146.58
Lower highs from 4190; tight 4143–4150 box below broken floor.
London open briefly broke above the Asian range high to 4190.31. The move was rejected and started a lower-high line through the London-NY decline. The NY open then broke Friday's 4155.84 low (friday low), the 4158.76 london low and the $4,150 broken floor, with a session low at 4142.85 as USD and yields found footing; the NAHB miss gave gold little lift. Price is now compressing in a 4143–4150 box with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,142.85
Resistance: 4,150.40, 4,155.84, 4,158.76
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150.4 broken floor returns price to the $4,150–4,200 range
Failure to hold the 4142.85 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the friday low at 4155.84 and the london low near 4158.8 (38.2% of the London-NY decline ~4161) needed to challenge the lower-high line
Calendar clear for the next 8h; US Housing Starts and Building Permits Tue 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing after the break · RSI 32 · price 4,146.23
Lower highs from the 4,190 London high; 4,150 range floor broken, base forming near 4,143.
London rejected a push to 4,190.3 above the Asian range. Price then fell through a lower-high trendline, and the NY open cut through the 4,158.7 prior lows, the Friday low and the 4,150 range floor despite the soft NAHB print. Since then it has been compressing between 4,143 and 4,150, with the 4,142.8 session low tested twice and RSI(14) near 32, soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4,150.4 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4,142.8 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 4,155.8 Friday low and 4,158.7 prior lows needed to challenge the lower-high trendline; 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop sits near 4,161
US 10y / real yields remain the driver; a renewed yield bid would pressure the post-break base
London open briefly pushed above the Asian range high to 4190.31, then met rejection and sold through the Asian low near 4165. A lower-high chain followed. The first hour of NY broke the 4150 range floor and the 4155.84 friday low as USD and yields found footing, printing a session low of 4142.83 with RSI(14) near 28. Price is now holding just under 4150 in a tight base mid-NY session.
Support: 4,142.83, 4,140.00
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,155.84, 4,167.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor would mark the NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4142.83 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4140 round number
Reclaim of the 4155.84 friday low and the 4167.21 lower high needed to break the lower-highs sequence
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC is the next calendar risk
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 29 · price 4,148.20
London rejection at 4190, Asian low and Friday low broken, NY pushed below the 4150 range floor.
Gold was rejected at 4190.31 at the London open, printed lower highs through the morning, then slipped through the Asian low (4165.71) and Friday low (4155.84). The drop extended to a 4142.87 session low in the first hour of NY as USD and yields steadied. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme, and the bounce is so far holding under the 4150 range floor.
Support: 4,142.87
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,155.84, 4,165.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor would turn the NY break into a false break
Loss of the 4142.87 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the Friday low at 4155.84, then the Asian low at 4165.71 (near the 50% fib of the London-NY selloff), would neutralise the down-leg
Price back above the London lower-highs trendline would end the intraday lower-high structure
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY session · RSI 29 · price 4,145.09
Lower highs since London open high, range floor broken.
Gold has built lower highs from the 4,190 London-open high and lost the 4,165.71 Asian low before noon. The first hour of NY broke the $4,150 range floor and Friday's 4,155.84 low, printing a session low at 4,142.87, as yields and USD found footing. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme. ATR(14) has expanded to about 760 pips.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4,150 range floor would mark the move as a false break
Failure to hold the 4,142.87 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4,140 round number
Reclaim of the 4,155.84 Friday low, then the 4,165.71 Asian low and the lower-highs trendline, needed to neutralise the downtrend read
No US data in the next 8h; yield and USD drift is the main driver, with housing data Tue 12:30 UTC
13:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into NY · RSI 32 · price 4,150.89
Lower highs from the London high; Asian range broken lower.
London faded from the 4190.31 session high, broke the 4165.7 Asian low and set a chain of lower highs as USD and yields found footing. The first hour of NY extended the drop to a 4150.06 session low, right on the $4,150 range floor. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,150.06
Resistance: 4,158.70, 4,165.70, 4,177.08
What it said to watch
A sustained M15 hold below the 4150.06 session low breaks the $4,150 range floor and extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 4158.7 prior low, then the 4165.7 Asian low, would mark the NY push as a false break of the floor
A close above the lower-highs trendline near 4169 and the 4177.08 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Moves in US yields and the USD drive direction; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
Lower highs since London's session high, compressing above the session low.
London rejected a brief poke above the Asian high at the 4190.31 session high, then broke the 4165.71 Asian low. That set off a chain of lower highs into a 4158.69 session low early in NY, with the old Asian low now capping bounces. RSI(14) sits near 41, no extreme. Price is drifting inside the $4,150–4,200 range as USD and yields steady, with Friday's low at 4154.71 and the 4150 range floor just below.
Support: 4,158.69, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,165.71, 4,177.08, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4165.71 asian low neutralises the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4158.69 session low exposes the 4154.71 friday low and the 4150 range floor
A close above the 4177.08 lower high breaks the descending structure and puts the 38.2–50% retrace of the fade from the session high (4170.8–4174.5) in play
No USD data in the next 8h; Housing Starts on Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
13:17 UTC
Downtrend since London open, momentum flattening · RSI 43 · price 4,163.48
Lower highs below broken Asian low, holding above session low.
London briefly cleared the Asian range to a 4190.31 london high, then rejected and sold through the 4165.71 asian low into a 4158.76 session low as USD and yields found footing. Early NY is capped at the former asian low with RSI(14) near 43, and the friday low at 4154.71 and 4150 range floor sit below.
Support: 4,158.76, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,165.71, 4,177.08, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4165.71 asian low and the falling trendline near 4170 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4177.08 lower high (50% fib zone near 4174.5) would reopen the 4190.31 london high
Failure to hold the 4158.76 session low exposes the 4154.71 friday low and the 4150 range floor
US yield moves into NY hours remain the primary driver; no scheduled US data before Tuesday's housing releases
13:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early NY · RSI 39 · price 4,162.36
Lower highs and lower lows since the London rejection; trading below the Asian range.
London open pushed above the Asian high to print a London high at 4190.31, then reversed. The drop cut through the Asian low at 4165.7 and made a session low of 4158.76 in the first hour of NY, with lower highs at 4177 and 4170 along the way. RSI(14) sits near 39 and price is just above the Friday low at 4154.7, with the $4,150 range floor below as USD and yields find footing.
Support: 4,158.76, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,165.71, 4,177.08, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Asian low at 4165.7 would turn the range break into a false break
Close above the 4177.08 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure at the 4158.76 session low exposes the Friday low at 4154.7 and the 4150 range floor
No scheduled USD data in the next 8h; yields and AI-equity moves remain the NY session driver
London rejection at 4190, Asian range broken lower.
London opened with a push above the Asian range to a 4190.31 session high that was rejected. Price then slid through the 4165.7 Asian low, printing lower highs at the 4177.08 swing high and the 4169.91 lower high, with a 4158.76 session low into the London-NY transition as the USD and yields firmed. RSI(14) sits near 42, price below both EMAs, and 4150 range floor plus the 4154.71 friday low lie just beneath.
Support: 4,158.76, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,169.91, 4,177.08, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4169.91 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4158.76 session low exposes the 4154.71 friday low and 4150 range floor
Reclaim of the 4177.08 swing high puts price back inside the Asian range
First hour of NY: a renewed yield or USD move could extend or reverse the London leg
12:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 4,164.32
Lower highs and lower lows since 4190.31; Asian range broken to the downside.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4190.31 Asian high as USD and yields found footing. London broke the asian low at 4165.71 and set a session low at 4158.76 into the London-NY transition. Price is now retesting 4165.71 from below with RSI(14) near 39, under both EMAs and just above the friday low and the 4150 range floor.
Support: 4,158.76, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,165.71, 4,177.08, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
NY open within the hour; a hold below the asian low at 4165.71 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Break of the 4158.76 session low exposes the friday low at 4154.71 and the 4150 range floor
Close above the 4177.08 lower high, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian drop, breaks the lower highs trendline
Recovery through the 4190.31 asian high would negate the intraday downtrend read
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since early London · RSI 44 · price 4,166.55
Asian high swept and rejected, Asian low broken; lower-high/lower-low chain through London.
London opened with a sweep of the Asian high to the 4190.31 london high that failed. Price then slid through the Asian low near 4165.71 to a session low at 4158.76, with each lower high (4177.08 swing high, 4169.91) capped as the USD and yields found footing. Price sits back at the Asian low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 44 and the broader 4150–4200 range intact.
Support: 4,158.76, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,169.91, 4,177.08, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
Close above the 4177.08 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 4169.91 lower high, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib, keeps the downtrend chain intact
Failure to hold the 4158.76 session low exposes the 4154.71 friday low and the 4150 range floor
US yield moves during NY hours are the main driver; Tue housing data at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
12:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 35 · price 4,160.71
Lower highs and lows from 4190.31; Asian range low broken.
Rejection at the 4190.31 London high, below Friday's 4198.77 spike, started a lower-high sequence. Price has slipped through the Asian low at 4165.71 into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) ~35, with the Friday low at 4154.71 and the 4150 range floor next below. The digest frames gold as pinned in a quiet $4,150–4,200 range while USD and yields steady.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,165.71, 4,177.08, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the asian low at 4165.71 would turn the range break into a false break
M15 close above the 4177.08 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Friday low 4154.71 and the 4150 range floor: area to watch for rejection or break; loss of 4150 exits the digest's range
No US data until Tue 12:30 UTC housing releases; yield moves during NY hours remain the main driver
11:47 UTC
Intraday lower highs inside a range · RSI 43 · price 4,169.50
Two-sided false break of the Asian range, lower-high sequence since London open.
London pushed through the Asian high at 4187.6 to a 4190.3 session high, then reversed and broke the Asian low to a 4162.4 London low before reclaiming it. That is a two-sided false break inside the wider 4150–4200 range. The rebound stalled at the 4177.1 swing high near the 50% fib of the London drop, leaving the lower-high line intact with RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,162.40, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,177.10, 4,187.60, 4,190.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4162.4 london low negates the false break and exposes the 4154.7 friday low near the 4150 range floor
Close above the 4177.1 swing high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 4187.6 asian high and 4190.3 session high
NY open at 13:30 UTC with an empty US calendar; moves in US yields remain the main driver for this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 44 · price 4,170.94
London sweep of Asian high, false break of Asian low.
London swept the 4187.64 Asian high to a 4190.31 session high and reversed. Lower highs followed, and a dip to the 4162.37 session low briefly broke the 4165.71 Asian low before price reclaimed it. The bounce stalled at the 4177.08 lower high near the 50% fib of the London selloff, with price back below both EMAs, RSI(14) ~44, and gold still in the quiet $4,150–4,200 band.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,162.37, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,177.08, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4177.08 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line from the session high
Failure to hold the 4165.71 Asian low and 4162.37 session low exposes Friday's 4154.71 prior low
Reclaim of the 4190.31 session high puts the 4198.77 prior high and the $4,200 band top in play
No US data in the next 8h; into the NY open, Treasury yields and US-Iran headlines are the swing factors
Asian range swept both sides; price rotating back inside.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 4187.6 to a 4190.3 session high and failed. Price then swept the Asian low at 4165.7 into a 4162.4 session low before buyers stepped back in. Late in the London session, price is reclaiming EMA20/EMA50 and pressing the 50% fib of that drop near 4176, inside the quiet $4,150–4,200 band the digest flags with no fresh catalyst.
Support: 4,165.70, 4,162.40, 4,155.80
Resistance: 4,176.30, 4,187.60, 4,190.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 4176.3 opens a retest of the Asian high 4187.6 and session high 4190.3
Failure back below the Asian low 4165.7 and session low 4162.4 exposes the Friday low at 4155.8
No US data in the next 8h; at NY open, US yields and US-Iran headlines are the factors that could break the range read
Lower highs through London, marginal break of Asian low.
London open briefly poked above the Asian range to a 4190.31 london high, was rejected, and the London drop has since extended in a lower-highs sequence. Price is now just under the 4165.71 asian low after printing a 4162.83 session low. RSI(14) is near 31, and the softer USD tone has not shown up in price.
Support: 4,162.83, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,165.71, 4,172.47, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4165.71 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above 4172.47 breaks the lower highs sequence and the London trendline
Failure to hold the 4162.83 session low exposes the 4154.71 friday low and the 4150 range floor
NY open and US-Iran headlines could reset the session range; no US data due in the next 8h
10:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high · RSI 34 · price 4,165.93
Lower highs since London open, testing Asian low.
London open pushed above the 4187.64 Asian high to the 4190.31 london high, then reversed. The failed push has unwound into steady descending highs back to the Asian range floor, with a marginal new session low at 4164.79. RSI(14) sits near 34 and price is below both EMAs, as firmer US yields cap gold despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,164.79, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,173.96, 4,179.63, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4164.79 session low exposes the 4154.71 friday low and the $4,150 range floor
M15 close above the 4173.96 lower high, near the 38.2% of the london drop, breaks the descending highs sequence
Reclaim of the 4179.63 swing high returns price to mid-Asian range and negates the false-break read
No US data due in the next 8h; NY open and yield moves are the next swing factor before Tuesday housing data
10:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London open high · RSI 42 · price 4,168.54
Lower highs since 4190.31, pressing the Asian low.
London open briefly pushed above the Asian range high to the 4190.31 session high and was rejected. Since then a chain of lower highs has dragged price back onto the 4165.71 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below both EMAs. The Monday tape is quiet with no US data: a softer USD on the AI-equity unwind is being offset by firm yields and Iran-related haven demand.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,172.78, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.71 Asian low breaks the Monday range and exposes the 4155.84 Friday low
Close above the 4172.78 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 4190.31 session high
NY open is the next liquidity test of the Asian low; no US data today, with Tue 12:30 UTC housing data the next scheduled risk
10:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed London push · RSI 40 · price 4,167.34
Lower highs since London open, back at Asian range low.
London open briefly cleared the 4187.6 asian high to a 4190.3 session high, then reversed. The rejection left a false break, and price has since stepped lower through a chain of lower highs, almost fully retracing the Asian low to session high leg back to the 4165.7 asian low. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR(14) is about $6.4 mid-London, with a softer USD failing to lift gold and no US data on the slate today.
Support: 4,165.70, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,172.80, 4,187.60, 4,190.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.7 asian low exposes the 4154.7 friday low
Reclaim of the 4172.8 lower high breaks the intraday lower-high chain
Return above the 4187.6 asian high and 4190.3 session high would negate the false break
NY open liquidity could widen the range beyond the Asian range
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London rejection · RSI 40 · price 4,168.23
Lower highs and lower lows from the 4190 session high, pressing the Asian low.
London open briefly pushed through the Asian high at 4187.64 to a 4190.31 London high and was rejected, leaving a false break. A string of lower highs, the latest at 4179.63, has carried gold back to the foot of the Asian range near 4168, with the Asian low at 4165.71 just below. The macro digest describes a quiet Monday, with a softer USD offset by firmer yields and US-Iran haven demand.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,179.63, 4,187.64, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.71 Asian low opens the Friday low at 4154.71
Close above the 4179.63 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4187.64 Asian high would void the London false break
No US data until Tuesday's housing releases at 12:30 UTC; US-Iran headlines are the main intraday risk
09:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 40 · price 4,168.44
False break of Asian high, now testing Asian low.
London open briefly pushed above the Asian range to a session high at 4190.31, then reversed. Price has printed a lower high at 4179.63 and is now pressing the Asian low at 4165.71, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40. Gold remains capped beneath Friday's prior high at 4198.77 and the $4,200 handle, with the digest citing safe-haven USD demand and heavy December Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,154.71, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,179.63, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.71 asian low exposes the friday low at 4154.71, then the 4150 psych level
Close back above the 4179.63 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Recovery through the 4190.31 session high toward the 4198.77 prior high would negate the false-break read
No US data in the next 8h; US yields and US-Iran headlines remain the swing drivers into the NY session
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64 intact; London false break above, now lower half.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 4187.64 to 4190.31, but the move was rejected and unwound to a session low of 4169.30. Price is back in the lower half of the Asian range with RSI(14) near 40. This fits the digest: early gains on receding October Fed-hike bets stalled below $4,200 as the haven USD held firm.
Support: 4,169.30, 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Break below the 4165.71 asian low exits the Asian range and exposes the 4155.84 friday low
Hold of the 4169.30 session low keeps price inside the Asian range
Recovery above the 50% retrace near 4179.80 weakens the London rejection read
Reclaim of the 4187.64 asian high and 4190.31 london high negates the false break; the 4198.77 friday high caps below $4,200
No US data in the next 8h; NY open flows and yield/USD tone drive the next leg
09:06 UTC
Intraday pullback inside Asian range · RSI 41 · price 4,170.12
False break of Asian high, lower highs since London open.
London open pushed just above the Asian range top to a 4190.3 session high and was rejected, with a lower high at 4179.6 since then and price back near 4170, the 78.6% retrace of the Asian low-to-session high leg. Asia's yield-driven firming has faded, with haven USD demand keeping gold below 4200.
Support: 4,165.70, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,179.60, 4,190.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.7 asian low turns the false break into a range break, with the 4154.7 friday low next
Reclaiming the 4179.6 lower high negates the London-session lower-high sequence and the trendline from the session high
Tue Oct 20 US housing data at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst; geopolitical headlines are the near-term swing factor until then
08:46 UTC
Range-bound, sliding off the London high · RSI 45 · price 4,171.85
Asian range intact after a failed London-open push above the Asian high.
London open pushed through the 4187.6 Asian high to a 4190.3 London high. The move did not hold, and price has slid back to the 4171 intraday low, which sits on the 78.6% fib of the Asian-London leg, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below EMA20/50. Gold stays capped below $4,200 despite lower yields after Warsh offered no policy signal.
Support: 4,171.10, 4,165.70
Resistance: 4,179.60, 4,187.60, 4,190.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171 intraday low and 78.6% fib exposes the 4165.7 Asian low
Recovery above the 4179.6 lower high reopens the 4187.6 Asian high and 4190.3 London high
No US data until Tue 12:15 UTC, so yield/DXY and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor into NY hours
08:31 UTC
Two-way, rising lows inside the session range · RSI 48 · price 4,177.78
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64; London false break above the Asian high, back mid-range.
London open pushed past the Asian high at 4187.64 to a London high of 4190.31 and was rejected to 4172.95. Price is back mid-range near 4178 with RSI(14) neutral around 48. Asian session lows have stepped higher off the 4165.71 Asian low along a rising trendline, helped by softer yields after Warsh gave no policy signal, while the sub-$4,200 cap keeps the topside contained.
Support: 4,171.95, 4,165.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4190.31 London high reopens the Friday high at 4198.77 and the $4,200 cap
Break of the 4171.95 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 4165.71 Asian low
No scheduled US data in the next 8h. The Tue 12:15 UTC ADP/housing block is the next calendar risk, so yield and DXY headlines drive the session
08:16 UTC
Sideways, two-way chop inside session range · RSI 47 · price 4,178.15
Monday range 4165.71–4190.31; London false break of asian high rejected.
London open pushed through the 4187.64 asian high to a 4190.31 session high, but the false break was rejected back to 4172.95, just above the 4171 swing low. Price sits mid-range near 4178, at the 50% of the session range fib, with RSI(14) ~47. Gold stays capped below $4,200 as lower yields after Warsh's non-committal remarks are offset by haven USD demand.
Support: 4,171.13, 4,165.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4190.31 session high reopens Friday's 4198.77 prior high and the $4,200 cap
Failure to hold the 4171 swing low exposes the 4165.71 asian low
Return above the 4187.64 asian high after the rejection would undercut the false-break read
US 10Y yield moves are the main driver with no USD data in the next 8h; Tuesday's ADP and housing releases are the next scheduled risk
London false break above Asian range high, price back to mid-range.
Early London pushed through the 4187.64 Asian high to a 4190.31 London high, then reversed hard back to 4173. That turned the move into a false break with price mid-range below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 45. The 4171 swing low and the rising Asian higher-low line are now under test, with gold still capped below $4,200 after Warsh's no-signal remarks only modestly eased yields.
Support: 4,171.13, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low line and exposes the 4165.7 Asian low
Loss of the Asian low reopens Friday's 4154.7 low, the base of the Friday NY spike
M15 close back above the 4190.3 London high negates the false break and opens the 4198.8 Friday high and the $4,200 cap
Price holding between the 0.618 and 0.786 fib of the Asian low to London high leg keeps the range read intact
US 10Y yields and DXY swings during London-NY transition remain the main intraday driver; no US data due in the next 8h
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64; marginal London break rejected.
Gold drifted up through the Asia session from Friday's 4165.79 close as Warsh gave no policy signal and yields eased. Early London pushed past the Asian range high at 4187.64 to a 4190.31 London high, but the bar closed back at 4182.73. That rejection keeps price inside the range and below the 4198.77 Friday high and the 4,200 psych cap.
Support: 4,171.13, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4190.31 London high reopens the 4198.77 Friday high and 4,200 psych
Failure to hold the 4171.13 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 4165.71 Asian low
Loss of the asian low puts the 4154.71 Friday low back in play
No US data in the next 8h; Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC housing and ADP data are the next scheduled USD risk
Rising lows pressing a 4185–4189 cap; London open testing the Asian high.
Gold built a 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range on rising lows after Friday's spike to 4198.77 faded. The London open poked to a 4189.32 session high and price now sits back at the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 58. Softer yields after Warsh's neutral IMF remarks support the drift, but the 4200 psych cap is still overhead.
Support: 4,182.30, 4,171.13, 4,165.71
Resistance: 4,189.32, 4,198.77, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4189.32 session high opens the 4198.77 friday high and the 4200 psych cap
Close back below the 4182.30 london low turns the Asian-high poke into a false break
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 4171.13 swing low exposes the 4165.71 asian low
No US data in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines driving haven USD demand could shift this read
07:16 UTC
Range with rising lows, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 4,183.52
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64, higher lows; London open probed above the top.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 4187.64 to a 4189.32 session high, then slipped back inside to 4183.5, near the 61.8% retrace of Friday's 4198.77–4155.84 drop. Asian lows have stepped up from 4165.71 to the 4171.13 swing low as easing yields after Warsh's neutral tone lift gold, but price remains capped below 4,200.
Support: 4,171.13, 4,165.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,189.32, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4189.32 session high opens Friday high 4198.77 and the 4,200 cap
Break of the rising-lows trendline and 4171.13 swing low exposes the Asian low at 4165.71
US-Iran headlines driving safe-haven USD demand could cap gold below the Asian high
07:05 UTC
Range with rising lows, pressing range top · RSI 59 · price 4,186.79
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64 with a higher-low chain; London open testing the top.
Gold is at London open, testing the Asian high at 4187.64 after a higher-low chain built off the 4165.71 Asian low. The latest swing low at 4171.13 sits on the rising-lows line. Softer yields after Warsh's neutral tone are lifting price, but the range top has capped four tests since the open.
Support: 4,171.13, 4,165.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 Asian high opens the 4198.77 Friday high and the 4200 psych cap
A break of the rising-lows line and the 4171.13 swing low returns price to the Asian range floor at 4165.71
No US data today. US 10Y yield moves into the NY session are the main driver of this read
Asian range 4165.7–4187.6, flat cap near 4186 with rising lows.
Late Asia session. Monday's session has built a 4165.7–4187.6 range off Friday's 4165.8 close. Supply has capped the 4185–4187 asian high zone three times while rising lows have lifted to 4171, compressing price just under both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at 45. Warsh's no-signal remarks trimmed October hike bets, but the haven USD bid is limiting follow-through.
Support: 4,171.10, 4,165.70, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,187.60, 4,198.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.6 asian high breaks the range top and opens the 4198.8 friday high and 4200 psych cap
Loss of the 4171 rising lows and the 4165.7 asian low exposes the 4154.7 friday low
London open is minutes away; a range break with ATR near $6.4 would set the session direction
US-Iran / Hormuz headlines driving a haven USD bid could cap any push toward the 4200 psych level
Asian range 4165.7–4187.6 with lows rising beneath a flat 4185–4187 cap.
Late in the Asian session, gold has built a 4165.7–4187.6 range above the 4154.7 friday low. Supply has capped 4185–4187 repeatedly, and the rising lows since 01:15 UTC are now being tested at 4174 after the 05:45 rejection from 4186. Lower yields after Warsh's non-committal remarks are lifting the metal, but a haven USD on US-Iran tension is capping follow-through. Price sits just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 4,174.10, 4,165.70, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,187.60, 4,198.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4174 breaks the rising lows and reopens the 4165.7 asian low
Loss of the asian low puts the 4154.7 friday low back in play
Close above the 4187.6 asian high exposes the 4198.8 friday high and the 4200 psych cap
London open in roughly 30 minutes is the first test of the Asian range
US-Iran or Hormuz headlines driving haven USD demand could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building · RSI 49 · price 4,176.55
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64, flat top near 4186 with rising lows.
Late in Monday's Asian session, gold is holding a 4165.71–4187.64 range. Rising lows off the asian low keep meeting supply near 4186, and lower yields after Warsh's non-committal remarks have lifted price off Friday's close. The last bar pulled back onto the rising line and the 50% fib of the Asian swing near 4176, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR around 630 pips.
Support: 4,174.14, 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
A close above the 4187.64 asian high after the London open breaks the range and brings the 4198.77 friday high into view
A close below the rising line and the 4174.14 higher low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 4165.71 asian low and then the 4155.84 friday low
A safe-haven USD bid from French debt stress or Hormuz tension could cap the range top regardless of the intraday structure
06:04 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building · RSI 57 · price 4,183.48
Asian range compressing higher lows under a flat 4186-4188 cap.
Late Asian session, with London open approaching. Gold is pressing the 4187.64 Asian high after a chain of higher lows from the 4165.71 Asian low up to 4174.14, as softer yields after Warsh's non-committal remarks lend support. Friday's NY whipsaw from 4154.71 to 4198.77 faded back toward the 4155.84 Friday low, leaving the Friday high just below the $4,200 cap as the next reference.
Support: 4,174.14, 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 4198.77 friday high and the $4,200 cap
Close below the 4174.14 higher low breaks the trendline and exposes the 4165.71 asian low
Loss of the 4155.84 friday low would mark a lower-low below Friday's NY range
London open liquidity could resolve the Asian compression quickly
05:46 UTC
Sideways, higher lows pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 4,184.80
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64, higher lows compressing under 4185–4188.
Late Asia session. Gold is back at the top of its 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range after the 05:30 bar lifted off the 4174.14 swing low. Lows have stepped higher since 01:15 while highs keep stalling at 4185–4188. The firmer tone fits lower yields after Warsh gave no policy signal, though Friday's NY spike to 4198.77 faded and the 4200 psych level has not been tested.
Support: 4,174.14, 4,165.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asian high breaks the compression and opens the path to the 4198.77 friday high and the 4200 psych level
Rejection at 4185–4188 into London open keeps the range read intact
A break below the 4174.14 swing low and the higher-low trendline ends the higher-low chain; the 4165.71 asian low is next
US 10Y yields and the dollar are the main drivers; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
05:32 UTC
Sideways, compressing in Asia · RSI 47 · price 4,177.62
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64, higher lows under a flat 4185 cap.
Monday's Asia session is coiling inside 4165.71–4187.64. Higher lows have printed into the twin lows at 4174.14, while supply caps the 4184–4185 range cap near the 61.8% of Friday's spike fib (4198.77–4155.84). RSI(14) sits neutral at 47 and price hugs the EMA20, with gold held sub-$4,200 as softer yields after Warsh's non-committal remarks offset a safe-haven USD bid.
Support: 4,174.14, 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,184.79, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the twin lows at 4174.14 exposes the asian low at 4165.71, then the friday low at 4155.84
M15 close above the 4185 range cap and asian high at 4187.64 reopens the friday high at 4198.77
London open in ~1.5h is the likely trigger to resolve the Asian range
No US data until Tue ADP/housing at 12:15–14:00 UTC; US yield and DXY moves remain the driver until then
05:16 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 54 · price 4,179.78
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64 with lower highs and higher lows.
Gold is coiling late in Monday's Asia session after a near-flat weekend gap. Price sits mid-range within the 4165.71 asian low to 4187.64 asian high, with lower highs at 4184.5–4184.8 and higher lows stepping up from 4165.71 to 4173.16. Lower yields after Warsh's no-signal IMF remarks give a mild lift, but price remains well under Friday's spike high at 4198.77.
Support: 4,173.16, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,184.79, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asian high breaks the compression and opens Friday's high at 4198.77 and the 4200 cap
Failure to hold the 4173.16 higher low exposes the 4165.71 asian low, then the 4154.71 friday low
London open in ~2h is the likely trigger for resolving the lower highs / higher lows squeeze
Renewed US-Iran headlines lifting safe-haven USD would cap moves toward the range top
05:05 UTC
Two-way range, higher lows building in late Asia · RSI 61 · price 4,183.40
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64; higher lows pressing the range top.
Late in Monday's Asian session, gold is pressing the 4187.64 Asian high with a higher-low chain at 4165.71, 4169.27 and 4173.16, helped by softer yields after Warsh gave no policy signal. Friday's NY swing still frames the picture, from the 4154.71 Friday low to the 4198.77 Friday high. RSI(14) at 61 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 4,173.16, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 Asian high opens the 4198.77 Friday high and the $4,200 cap
Loss of the 4173.16 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and returns focus to the 4165.71 Asian low
A break below the 4154.71 Friday low would mark a lower low through Friday's NY swing
London open in about 2h is a typical point for the Asian range to resolve
04:47 UTC
Neutral, compressing in Asia · RSI 57 · price 4,180.24
Asian range with higher lows against lower highs.
Late Asia session is compressing inside the 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range. Higher lows at 4169.27 and 4173.16 sit against lower highs at 4184.52 and 4183.86, with price near 4180 in the upper half and above both EMAs. The mild bid tracks fading October hike odds after Friday's NY swing from 4154.71 to 4198.77 unwound.
Support: 4,173.16, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,184.52, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4184.52 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 4187.64 Asian high in play; acceptance above that exposes the 4198.77 friday high
Failure to hold the 4173.16 higher low returns focus to the 4165.71 Asian low, then the 4154.71 friday low
London open in roughly 2h is the likely catalyst for resolving the Asian range
No top-tier US data until Tue 12:30 UTC housing releases; US yields and DXY drive moves in the meantime
04:31 UTC
Sideways, contracting inside Asian range · RSI 53 · price 4,176.05
Lower highs vs rising lows within 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range.
Asia session is boxed between the 4165.71 asian low and the 4187.64 asian high, after Friday's NY whipsaw from 4154.71 to the 4198.77 friday high. Lower highs at 4187.64, 4184.52 and 4182.11 against rising lows are squeezing price to 4176, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 53, as fading October hike odds give only mild support.
Support: 4,173.16, 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,182.11, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4182.11 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4187.64 asian high back in play
Loss of the 4173.16 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 4165.71 asian low, then the 4155.84 friday low
London open in ~2.5h is the likely catalyst for a break of the Asian range
Clearance of 4187.64 opens a run at the 4198.77 friday high; no top-tier US data until Tuesday's housing releases
Asian range with lower high and higher low, contracting.
Late in the Monday Asia session, gold is holding a 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range inside Friday's 4154.71–4198.77 NY swing. A lower high at 4184.52 and a higher low at 4169.27 have squeezed price into a tight 4178–4182 band, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 54. Fading October hike odds give a mild lift but no break yet.
Support: 4,169.27, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,184.52, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asian high breaks the compression and opens the friday high at 4198.77
Failure to hold the 4169.27 higher low exposes the 4165.71 asian low and the 4154.71 friday low
London open in roughly 3h is the likely catalyst to resolve the lower highs / higher lows squeeze
No US data until Tue housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC; a US yield move remains the main driver
04:04 UTC
Sideways, contracting inside Asian range · RSI 56 · price 4,179.96
Lower high and higher low tightening inside the 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range.
Mid-Asia session, gold is coiling inside a 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range. A lower high at 4184.52 and a higher low at 4169.27 are squeezing price around the 50–61.8% retrace of Friday's NY drop from 4198.77 to 4154.71. The mild bid tracks fading October hike odds and a soft USD, but supply has capped each push toward 4185.
Support: 4,169.27, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,184.52, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asian high breaks the range and opens a path back to the 4198.77 friday high
Loss of the 4169.27 higher low reopens the 4165.71 asian low; below that, the 4154.71 friday low is exposed
London open in about 3h is the usual catalyst for resolving the Asian range
No top-tier US data until Tuesday's housing releases; moves in US yields and the USD remain the main driver
03:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 54 · price 4,179.08
Asian range 4165.7–4187.6, lower highs vs higher lows.
Monday's Asia session has built a 4165.7–4187.6 range inside Friday's 4154.7–4198.8 swing. Lower highs at 4187.6, 4184.5 and 4182.1 are pressing against a higher low at 4169.3 along a rising trendline, a tightening consolidation. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and the mild bid tracks fading October hike odds and Middle East risk.
Support: 4,169.27, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,182.11, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4182.1 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 4187.6 asian high back in play
A break of the 4187.6 asian high leaves the 4198.8 friday high as the next reference
Loss of the 4169.3 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 4165.7 asian low, then the 4154.7 friday low
London open in ~3h is the likely test of the Asian range edges
No US data until Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; US-Iran / Hormuz headlines are the near-term event risk
03:31 UTC
Sideways, contracting in Asia · RSI 50 · price 4,179.48
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
Late Asia session, gold is coiling inside the 4165.71 asia low to 4187.64 asia high. Lower highs at 4187.64 and 4184.52 and higher lows at 4165.71 and 4169.27 are squeezing price near 4179, with RSI(14) flat around 50. The mild firmness tracks fading October hike odds and geopolitical support after Friday's NY whipsaw, which ran from the 4154.71 friday low to the 4198.77 friday high.
Support: 4,169.27, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,184.52, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4184.52 lower high breaks the contraction and puts the 4187.64 asia high, then the 4198.77 friday high, in play
Failure to hold the 4169.27 higher low reopens the 4165.71 asia low, with the 4154.71 friday low below
London open is the likely range-expansion window; ATR(14) is about $7.5 per bar
No US data until Tue housing at 12:30 UTC; yield and US-Iran headlines are the main swing risk to this read
03:16 UTC
Sideways, contracting inside Asian range · RSI 51 · price 4,179.06
Lower high 4184.52 and higher low 4169.27 compressing within the Asian range 4165.71–4187.64.
Late Asia session: gold is holding 4179, mid-way through Monday's Asian range of 4165.71–4187.64. The swings are tightening, with a lower high at 4184.52 and a higher low at 4169.27. Mild support from fading October hike odds has lifted price off Friday's close, but it is still well inside Friday's NY swing between the friday low at 4154.71 and the friday high at 4198.77. RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 4,169.27, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,184.52, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 4198.77 friday high
Failure to hold the 4169.27 higher low puts the 4165.71 asian low back in play; below that, the 4154.71 friday low
Acceptance above the 4184.52 lower high would end the contraction read
London open is the likely first test of the Asian range; no US data until Tue housing at 12:30 UTC
03:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing inside Asian range · RSI 47 · price 4,176.58
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64, lower high and higher low narrowing price.
Monday Asia opened with a small gap above Friday's 4165.79 close and has built a 4165.71–4187.64 Asian range on mild support from fading October hike odds and Hormuz headlines. A lower high at 4184.52 and a swing low at 4169.27 are compressing price near 4176.6, with RSI(14) flat near 47 and price just above both EMAs.
Support: 4,169.27, 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,184.52, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asian high breaks the range and brings the 4198.77 friday high back into view
Failure to hold the 4165.71 asian low opens the 4155.84 friday low
Break of the lower highs line near 4184.52 or the higher lows line near 4169.27 would end the compression read
London open is the next session test of the Asian range. No US data until Tuesday's housing releases at 12:30 UTC
02:47 UTC
Sideways, contracting inside the Asian range · price 4,176.97
Lower highs at 4187.64 / 4184.52 against higher lows at 4165.71 / 4170.10 and 4169.27.
Asia range 4165.71–4187.64 with a lower high at 4184.52, inside Friday's range.
Late in the Monday Asia session, gold has built a 4165.71–4187.64 range. The latest push printed a lower high at 4184.52 and was rejected back to a 4170.1 swing low, leaving price at 4172 just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral at 48. The early bid came on a softer USD and fading October hike odds, but the action remains contained inside Friday's 4154.71–4198.77 range.
Support: 4,170.10, 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,184.52, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.71 asian low breaks the session range and exposes the 4154.71 friday low
Close above the 4184.52 lower high and 4187.64 asian high reopens the 4198.77 friday high
London open in ~4h typically sets the break direction of the Asian range
No US data until Tuesday's housing releases; US-Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main intraday wildcard
02:17 UTC
Sideways, rebounding inside Asian range · RSI 56 · price 4,181.20
Asian range 4165.71–4187.64, flat base near 4166.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap above Friday's 4165.79 close. Price has held a 4165.71–4187.64 range, and the 01:15 UTC dip to the session low was bought back to 4181, just under the 61.8% fib of Friday's NY slide from the 4198.77 friday high. RSI(14) is neutral at 56, and weekend Hormuz headlines are the only fresh driver, with no US data until Tuesday.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,182.37, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 session high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 4198.77 friday high
Rejection at the 4182.37 61.8% fib keeps the range read intact
Loss of the 4165.71 session low reopens the 4154.71 friday low
London open is the next test of the Asian range; any Hormuz/Iran escalation headlines could jolt this read
02:04 UTC
Two-way, mid-range · RSI 49 · price 4,175.01
Asian range 4165.7–4187.6 contained inside Friday's 4155.8–4198.8 range; lower highs against higher lows.
Gold opened the week bid on weekend Hormuz headlines. The Asia session rally stalled at the 4187.6 Asian high and fully retraced to the 4165.7 Asian low, just above Friday's close. Price has steadied near 4175, roughly the 50% retrace of Friday's NY drop from 4198.8 to 4155.8, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.6 Asian high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 4198.8 Friday high
Failure to hold the 4165.7 Asian low breaks the higher lows line and reopens the 4155.8 Friday low
London open could expand the Asian range; Hormuz/oil headlines are the main risk, with no US data due in the next 8h
Asia session opened flat to Friday's close and ran to an asia high of 4187.64 on weekend Hormuz haven headlines, then the rally was rejected and gave it all back. Buyers stepped in twice near the 4166 asia low, and price is now mid-range at the 50% of Friday's 4198.77–4155.84 drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.64 asia high reopens the 4198.77 friday high
Loss of the 4165.71 asia low exposes the 4155.84 friday low
Hormuz/Iran headlines through Asia and into the London open could break the session range
Acceptance above the 50% of the friday drop fib near 4177 shifts the read from range to recovery
01:32 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a two-day range · RSI 47 · price 4,171.07
Asian session lower highs off 4187.64, holding above the 4165.71 Asian low.
Gold firmed at the Asia open on weekend Hormuz headlines, then saw rejection at the 4187.64 Asian high and printed lower highs at 4181.58 and 4178.31. Price is sitting near the 50% level of the Asian rally fib from Friday's 4155.84 swing low, just below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,178.31, 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4165.71 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4155.84 swing low
A close above the 4178.31 lower high breaks the Asian trendline and reopens the 4187.64 Asian high
The 4198.77 Friday high caps the two-day range; acceptance above it would end the range read
Further Hormuz or Iran headlines into the London open could materially shift this read
Asian range 4166–4188 forming inside Friday's 4155–4199 range.
Asia opened with a small gap above Friday's 4165.8 close and ran to 4187.6 on the weekend Hormuz headlines. That high was rejected below the 4198.8 friday high and the move has fully retraced to the 4166.2 asia low, keeping the lower highs from Friday intact. Price is now just under the ema20 (4174) and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,166.20, 4,155.80
Resistance: 4,174.20, 4,187.60, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4166.2 asia low (Monday open area) exposes the 4155.8 fri ny low
Recovery through the ema20 at 4174 and the 4187.6 asia high would break the lower highs line from the 4198.8 friday high
Further Hormuz/Iran or oil headlines during the Asia session could extend the Asian range before London open
01:06 UTC
Asia rebound fading, mid-range · RSI 55 · price 4,175.01
Gap-up Asia leg capped below Friday high, deep pullback.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap above the 4165.79 Friday close and ran to a 4187.64 Asian high, where it met rejection below Friday's 4189–4198 NY spike zone. Price has since retraced about 73% of that leg to a 4172.01 pullback low and is holding just above EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and weekend Hormuz headlines as the backdrop.
Support: 4,172.01, 4,165.79, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4172.01 pullback low targets a fill back to the 4165.79 Friday close
Loss of 4165.79 exposes Friday's 4155.84 NY low
Close above the 4187.64 Asian high opens a retest of the 4198.77 Friday high
Escalating Hormuz/oil headlines during Asia could shift this read via yields and the USD
00:47 UTC
Range, Asia leg retracing · RSI 55 · price 4,173.61
Asia lower high under Friday highs, pullback past 61.8%.
Early Asia opened with a small gap above Friday's 4165.79 close and pushed to a 4187.64 session high. That high stalled as a lower high below the 4198.77 friday high, and price has since slipped past the 61.8% retrace of the Asian leg toward the 4172.22 pullback low. RSI(14) is near 55 and price sits between EMA20 and EMA50, a neutral M15 read with Hormuz headlines the only fresh driver into the open.
Support: 4,172.22, 4,166.25, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Holding the 4172.22 pullback low near the 61.8% keeps the Asian leg structure intact
M15 close below the 4166.25 asian low fills the weekend gap and exposes the 4154.71 ny low from Friday
Close above the 4187.64 session high breaks the lower-high line from Friday and puts the 4198.77 friday high in play
Hormuz/Iran or oil headlines into London open could move yields and USD and shift this read
00:32 UTC
Two-way, Asia bounce fading · RSI 53 · price 4,174.93
Asia high rejected below Friday high, pulling back into the 61.8% fib.
Gold opened Monday Asia with only a small gap above Friday's 4165.79 close, despite the weekend Hormuz headlines. It rallied to an Asia high of 4187.64, short of the 4198.77 Friday high, then saw a rejection. Price has slipped back to the 61.8% fib at 4174.42 and is sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 4,174.42, 4,166.25, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 4174.42 exposes the 4166.25 asia low and Friday's 4165.79 close
M15 close above the 4187.64 asia high reopens the 4198.77 friday high
Loss of 4166.25 puts the 4155.84 fri ny low back in play
Hormuz escalation headlines during Asia could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday higher lows, stalling below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 4,180.27
Asia HL chain from weekly open, pullback off 4187.64.
The Asia session opened with a small gap above Friday's 4165.79 close on weekend Hormuz headlines. Price then built higher lows up to the asian high at 4187.64, and the latest bar showed a rejection back toward 4180. That puts price between the 38.2% fib at 4179.5 and the session high, with the higher low at 4174.42 sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the Asia leg.
Support: 4,174.42, 4,166.25, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Close below the higher low at 4174.42 (61.8% fib) breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the weekly open at 4166.25
Acceptance above the asian high at 4187.64 brings Friday's london high at 4192.28 and the friday high at 4198.77 back into view
Loss of the weekly open puts Friday's ny low at 4155.84 in play
Further Hormuz or oil headlines into London open could extend or reverse the opening gap; no US data due in the next 8h
00:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the weekly open · RSI 69 · price 4,186.14
Higher highs and higher lows through the Monday Asia session, retracing Friday's NY sell-off.
Gold opened the week marginally higher on Hormuz haven headlines and has climbed from the 4166.25 open low to 4186, reclaiming about 70% of Friday's sell-off from the 4198.77 friday high. Early Asia structure is a clean higher-high, higher-low chain above rising support, with the 4180.20 swing low and 4174.42 asia base beneath. RSI(14) is near 69, firm but not stretched, as price nears Friday's London high at 4192.28.
Support: 4,180.20, 4,174.42, 4,166.25
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.28 london high opens the path to the 4198.77 friday high and the 4200 round number
Break of rising support and the 4180.20 swing low turns focus back to the 4174.42 asia base
Loss of the 4166.25 open low erases the Monday rally and returns price to Friday's 4155–4166 lows
Fresh Strait of Hormuz incidents or oil moves during Asia could materially shift this read