XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Downtrend since Monday's high, below both EMAs · RSI 30 · price 4,136.18
Lower highs from 4190, marginal break under 4150 range floor.
Gold failed at the 4190 Monday high in the London session and printed a sequence of lower highs into NY hours. Price fell back through the 4168 weekly open and under the 4150 range floor as WTI near $99 lifted 10y yields to 5.144%. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) at the 50% retracement of last week's 4073.55–4198.77 rally, with RSI(14) pressed near 30 and the thu low at 4130 the next reference beneath.
Support: 4,130.37, 4,121.40
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,168.37, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 4150 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4130 thu low exposes the fib 61.8% at 4121
A move through the lower highs trendline and the 4168 weekly open would undo the Monday sell-off
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; Fri Oct 23 PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
Lower high Monday; marginal break below 4150 range floor.
Gold opened the week at 4168.37 and London lifted it to a 4190.31 Monday high, a lower high under Friday's 4198.77. NY hours then drove the slide through the 4150 range floor as WTI near $99 pushed 10y yields to 5.144%. Price is now basing just above the 4136.60 session low, at the 50% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Friday advance, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,168.37, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4150 range floor would turn the break into a false break, with the weekly open at 4168.37 next overhead
Failure to hold the 4130.37 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4121 and the wed low at 4073.55
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the 4190.31 monday high would reopen tests of the range top
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Short-term downtrend since Monday's London high · RSI 32 · price 4,140.45
Lower highs under 4198.8; marginal break below 4150 range floor.
Gold set a 4190.3 Monday high at the London open, a lower high under Friday's 4198.8 week top. It then slid below EMA(20) near 4156 and the 4168.4 weekly open into NY hours as WTI near $99 lifted the 10y yield to 5.144% and firmed the USD. Price now sits just under the 4150 range floor, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 4073.6–4198.8 recovery, with RSI(14) near 32. The 4136.6 day low has held through the late NY session.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,130.40, 4,121.40
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,168.40, 4,190.30
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4150 range floor would mark the break as a false break and put the 4168.4 weekly open back in play
Failure to hold the 4136.6 day low (50% fib) exposes the 4130.4 thu low and the 61.8% fib at 4121.4
Lower highs from 4198.8 to the 4190.3 monday high stay intact while price holds below EMA(20)
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and moves in the 10y yield (5.144%) or WTI (~$99) could shift this read
20:03 UTC
Rally stalled, rolling over below EMAs · RSI 35 · price 4,141.51
Lower high at 4190 under 4198.8 week high; 4154.7 fri low broken.
Monday's Asian push from 4168 stalled at a 4190.3 monday high at the London open, a lower high under Friday's 4198.8 week high. Price then slid through the NY session as WTI near $99 lifted the 10y yield to 5.144% and firmed the USD. The drop broke the 4154.7 fri low, which also breaks the higher-low line off Wednesday's 4073.6 base and completes a shallow double top. Price sits at 4141.5, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Wed–Fri rally, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,130.40, 4,121.40
Resistance: 4,154.70, 4,190.30, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 4154.7 fri low (and the 4150 range floor) negates the double top break
Failure to hold 4136.6 monday low and 4130.4 thu low exposes the fib 61.8 at 4121.4
Lower-highs line from 4198.8 week high to 4190.3 monday high caps any rebound unless cleared
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; 10y yield extending above 5.144% is the main headwind
Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower high under 4200 and a break of the 4150 floor.
Gold opened the week at 4168.37 and was bid toward 4190.31 into London. That stalled below Friday's 4198.77 peak, a second rejection under 4200. During NY hours an oil-driven yield rebound and a firmer USD pushed price through the 4150 range floor to a Monday low of 4136.60, near the 50% retracement of the 4073.55–4198.77 rally. Price is now consolidating near 4145, below EMA20 (~4158), with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,130.37, 4,121.40
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,168.37, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4150 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the Monday low at 4136.60 exposes the Thursday low at 4130.37 and the 61.8% fib at 4121.4
A move back above the weekly open at 4168.37 and the lower-highs trendline would reopen the Monday high at 4190.31
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and the 10y yield vs 5.144% could materially shift this read
17:06 UTC
Turning lower, lower high below week high · RSI 31 · price 4,139.11
Lower high at 4190.31, NY break below Friday low.
Gold opened the week at 4168.37 and reached 4190.31 in the London session, a lower high against the 4198.77 week high. The NY session then took out the Friday low near 4147 as the 10y yield rebounded to 5.13% and the USD firmed. Price now sits below the weekly open and an EMA(20) near 4160, with RSI(14) near 31, parked at the 50% retracement (4136) of the Wednesday-to-Friday rally, just above the Monday low at 4137.35 and the Thursday low at 4130.37.
Support: 4,137.35, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,147.22, 4,168.37, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the Friday low at 4147.22 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the Thursday low at 4130.37 exposes the 61.8% fib near 4121 and the Wednesday low at 4073.55
Reclaiming the weekly open at 4168.37 neutralises the lower highs sequence from the 4198.77 week high
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits, then Friday's PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, could shift the yield-driven read
Lower high under 4198.77 week high; Friday low 4154.71 still intact.
Gold recovered all of Wednesday's NY-session flush to 4073.55 in Thursday's Asia session as yields slid, shrugged off the hot-PPI dip to 4130.37 and pushed to a week high of 4198.77 on Friday. Monday's London-session rejection at 4190.31 set a lower high under that peak. The fade since has taken price below the weekly open at 4168.37, EMA(20) near 4170.6 and EMA(50) near 4166.7, with RSI(14) easing to about 43. Price now sits just above the Monday low at 4158.76 and the Friday low at 4154.71, while the fib 38.2 of the Wednesday–Friday impulse at 4150.94 lines up with the 4150 range floor.
Support: 4,158.76, 4,154.71, 4,150.94
Resistance: 4,168.37, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the fib 38.2 at 4150.94 and the Friday low at 4154.71 would break the higher-low sequence from Wednesday and expose the 50% retracement at 4136.16
A recovery above the weekly open at 4168.37 and EMA(20) would reopen the Monday high at 4190.31
A close above the week high at 4198.77 breaks the lower highs line and tests the 4200 cap
US Housing Starts / Building Permits (Tue 12:30 UTC) are the near-term data risk; Friday's PMIs and UoM inflation expectations are the larger test of the 4150–4200 range
4155–4199 range after Wed–Fri recovery; Monday printed a lower high.
Gold recovered from Wednesday's 4073.55 low to a 4198.77 friday high in the NY session, the 1%+ Thursday rally coming as yields slid on AI-equity stress. Thursday's hot PPI dip to the ppi low at 4130.4 was absorbed, and the recovery has held above the fib 38.2% of the Wed–Fri leg near 4151. Since Friday, price has rotated inside a 4155–4199 range: Monday's London push stalled at 4190.3 for a lower high below the friday high, and the slide back under the 4168.4 weekly open has pushed price below EMA(20) near 4172 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s toward the friday low at 4155.8.
Support: 4,155.80, 4,151.00, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,168.40, 4,190.30, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the friday low at 4155.8 and the fib 38.2% near 4151 breaks the range floor and exposes the ppi low at 4130.4
Reclaiming the weekly open at 4168.4 and EMA(20) restores the mid-range read; a close above the monday high at 4190.3 and friday high at 4198.8 would break the lower highs line and open the $4,200 cap
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC, then Friday's S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, could shift the read via yields
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's NY-session drop to 4073.55. It recovered most of that move through Thursday even as US PPI and retail sales ran hot, with a slide in yields pulling the USD off its highs. Since then the advance has stalled under 4200: Friday's NY spike to the 4198.77 friday high and Monday's London-open push to the 4190.31 monday high both faded, forming lower highs against the rising lows. Price now sits just below EMA(20) near 4174 but above EMA(50) and the 4168.37 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 47, mid-range.
Support: 4,168.37, 4,162.37, 4,150.94
Resistance: 4,174.00, 4,190.31, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4198.77 friday high and 4200 breaks the lower highs and opens the path toward the 4230 range top
Failure to hold the 4162.37 monday low breaks the higher-lows trendline from Thursday
A move below 4150.94 (38.2% fib of the Wed–Fri rally, near the 4150 range floor) exposes the 50% level near 4136
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits and Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs could shift yields and the USD, and with them this read
10:04 UTC
Recovery stalling under $4,200 · RSI 47 · price 4,167.33
Higher lows from Wednesday's low now meeting lower highs below $4,200.
Gold recovered from Wednesday's CPI-driven low at 4073.55, printing higher lows on Thursday and Friday as falling yields and a softer USD lifted it. Friday's NY-open spike stalled at the friday high of 4198.8, and Monday's London-open rejection at the monday high of 4190.3 left a lower high below $4,200. Price has since slipped back under the ema20 near 4174 to test the weekly open and monday low at 4165.7, sitting on the 23.6% fib of the CPI low to friday high rally, with EMA(50) just below and RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 4,165.70, 4,158.40, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,174.00, 4,190.30, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4190.3 monday high and 4198.8 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the $4,230 range top
Failure to hold the 4158.4 friday low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4150 range floor near the 38.2% fib
A sustained H1 hold back above the 4174 ema20 restores the recovery read inside the range
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing data and any renewed yield uptick could shift the read; Friday's PMIs and UoM inflation expectations are the larger risk this week
Higher lows since Wednesday, lower highs since Friday: compression.
The hot CPI print knocked gold to 4073.55 on Wednesday. It then recovered through Thursday's PPI beat as yields fell, peaking at the 4198.80 week high in Friday's NY session, just shy of the $4,200 cap. Monday's London open push to the monday high at 4190.30 was rejected, and price is back at the weekly open near 4168, which aligns with EMA(50) and the 23.6% fib of the CPI-low rally. EMA(20) at 4174.50 now sits overhead, and RSI(14) has slipped to 46. Higher lows and lower highs are converging into a tightening range.
Support: 4,168.40, 4,155.00, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,174.50, 4,190.30, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4198.80 week high and $4,200 breaks the lower-high line and the cap in place since Friday
Failure to hold the weekly open at 4168 and the higher-low line exposes the friday low near 4155 and the 38.2% fib at 4151
A break below the 4130.40 ppi low ends the higher-low sequence from Wednesday's CPI low
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 4174.50 would put price back inside Monday's upper Asian range
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing data, then Fri PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, could shift Fed hike pricing and this range
The hot CPI print knocked gold to a 4073.55 low in Wednesday's NY session. Falling yields then drove a post-CPI rally to 4198.77 on Friday, with a run of higher lows along the way. Friday's NY spike was rejected short of the 4200 round number, and Monday's London session stalled at a 4190.31 session high. That leaves price sitting on the EMA(20) just above the 4168 weekly open, with RSI(14) mid-range near 55, consistent with the 4155-4200 range that has held since Friday.
Support: 4,168.40, 4,155.80, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,190.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 4168 weekly open and the 4155.8 swing low would break the higher-lows sequence from Friday
Losing the 4147 friday low exposes the 50% post-CPI fib near 4136
Acceptance above the 4200 round number clears the two-week cap; the digest flags 4230 as the range top beyond
Reclaiming the 4190 session high would turn the EMA(20) back into support
Tue 12:15-14:00 UTC US ADP/housing data, then Fri PMIs and UoM 5y inflation expectations, could materially shift this read via yields
07:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the CPI low, pressing the 4200 cap · RSI 64 · price 4,189.05
Higher lows since Thursday under flat resistance near 4200.
The hot US CPI print knocked gold to 4073.55 in Wednesday's NY session. Since Thursday's Asia session the metal has carved higher lows at 4130, 4147, 4154.7 and Monday's 4165.7, helped by falling yields and Warsh's neutral tone eroding October hike odds. The 4200 cap rejected Tuesday's high and Friday's NY spike to 4198.77. Monday's Asian session has held above the weekly open at 4168 and the H1 EMA20 near 4177, with RSI(14) at about 64 and price testing the Asian high at 4189.
Support: 4,177.00, 4,168.37, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,189.32, 4,199.50, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 cap would break the two-touch ceiling and opens the path toward the 4230 range top
Loss of the weekly open at 4168 and the rising higher-low trendline would end the higher-low sequence
Break of the 4154.7 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI-low rally, would shift the read back to range
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 4177 keep the post-CPI recovery structure intact
Tue US housing data from 12:15-14:00 UTC and Fri PMIs plus UoM inflation expectations could reprice yields and this read
The hot CPI print knocked gold to 4,073.55 in Wednesday's NY session, and the CPI rebound has since retraced most of that leg as falling yields lifted the metal, carving higher lows at 4,130, 4,147, the 4,155 swing low and Monday's 4,165.71 Asia-session low. Friday's NY push stalled at 4,198.77, a second rejection at the 4200 cap after Tuesday's 4,200.49 high. Price now sits above a rising EMA(20) near 4,176, with RSI(14) around 58 and Monday's high at 4,187.64 the nearest cap. Warsh's lack of a policy signal has eroded October hike bets and kept yields soft.
Resistance: 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 cap resolves the two-week range higher toward the 4,230 October range top
Break of the monday low at 4,165.71 and the higher lows trendline shifts focus to the 4,155 swing low and the 38.2% CPI rebound retracement near 4,151
Failure to hold the ema20 near 4,176 into the London session would show the Monday drift losing traction
Tue ADP, Housing Starts and Permits (12:15-14:00 UTC) could move yields and shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, flat cap at 4200.
Wednesday's hotter US CPI knocked gold to 4073.6 during NY hours. The move was fully retraced from Thursday's Asia session as yields fell, leaving a sequence of higher lows at 4130.4, 4154.7 and 4165.7. Friday's NY spike to 4198.8 was rejected beneath the same 4200 cap that held on Tuesday, but the Friday low stayed above the 38.2% retracement of the CPI-low impulse. Monday's Asian session has reclaimed the weekly open and EMA(20) near 4175, with RSI(14) back near 59 and price pressing the 4187.6 Asian high.
Support: 4,175.00, 4,168.40, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,187.60, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 cap opens the path to the 4230 range top
Failure to hold the weekly open at 4168.4 and the rising lows trendline puts the friday low at 4154.7 and the 38.2% CPI impulse fib near 4151 back in play
Tue Oct 20 ADP and housing data (12:15–14:00 UTC) and Fri Oct 23 PMIs/UoM 5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
Wednesday's CPI selloff to 4073.55 has been fully unwound. Since Thursday's PPI bar the chart shows a rising support line of higher lows, with lower yields and a softer USD doing the lifting. Friday's NY spike to the friday high at 4198.77 was rejected just under the 4200 cap set on Tuesday. The pullback then stalled at the friday low of 4155.84, a shallow retrace of the cpi low to fri high leg. In Monday's Asia session price is holding above the weekly open of 4168.37 and back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 51. The asia high at 4187.64 is the first lid.
Support: 4,168.37, 4,155.84, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,198.77, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 cap (4198.77–4200.49) ends the week-long ceiling and breaks the range read
Repeated rejection near the asia high of 4187.64 keeps price compressed between the rising support line and the 4200 cap
Loss of the weekly open and then the friday low at 4155.84 breaks the rising support line from the ppi low
A break of the 4130.37 ppi low exposes the 61.8% retrace of the cpi low to fri high leg near 4121
Tue 12:30 UTC housing data and Fri UoM 5y inflation expectations/PMIs could shift yields and materially change this read
Higher lows since Thursday's PPI low, two rejections under the 4,200 cap.
Gold has retraced most of Wednesday's CPI-driven drop to 4,073.6. Since Thursday's PPI low at 4,130.4 it has printed higher lows as yields and the dollar eased into Friday, and that post-CPI rally stalled at the 4,200 cap, rejected for a second time during NY hours Friday at 4,198.8. Monday's Asia session is holding above EMA(20) near 4,172 with RSI(14) around 55, still below the Monday high at 4,187.6.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Monday low at 4,165.7 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the Friday low at 4,154.7 and the 38.2% retrace of the post-CPI rally near 4,151
Acceptance above the Monday high at 4,187.6 brings the 4,200 cap back into play; a clean break opens the 4,230 range top
Tue 12:30 UTC housing data and Fri PMIs / UoM 5y inflation expectations could shift the yield-driven read
Higher lows since Wednesday's 4073.55 low, highs capped at 4187–4200.
Gold dropped to 4073.55 on Wednesday's hot CPI during NY hours. It then reversed from Thursday's 4130.37 PPI low as Treasury yields fell, carving a sequence of higher lows that held through Friday. The NY-open spike to 4198.77 on Friday met rejection just under the 4200.49 prior high, and Monday's Asia session has opened at 4168.37 and stalled at a 4187.64 Monday high. Price sits slightly above EMA(20) near 4172 and holds above the 23.6% recovery fib around 4169, with RSI(14) flat near 53, so the recovery is compressing beneath 4200 rather than extending.
Support: 4,165.71, 4,154.71, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,200.49, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 prior high, capped on Tuesday and Friday, opens the 4230 range top named in the October range
Loss of the 4165.71 Monday low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 4154.71 higher low and 38.2% recovery fib near 4151 in play, with the 4130.37 PPI low beneath
Weekend Hormuz/Iran headlines at the Asia open and US yield moves could materially shift this read; Tue US housing data and ADP at 12:15–14:00 UTC are the next scheduled risk
01:07 UTC
Range-bound after the CPI rebound, compressing · RSI 52 · price 4,174.36
Lower highs below the 4200 range top against rising lows since Thursday.
Wednesday's hot-CPI flush to 4073.55 in the NY session was unwound by Friday as lower Treasury yields fed the rebound. That rebound stalled at the range top, with lower highs at 4200.49, 4198.77 and today's 4187.64 monday high set against a line of rising lows from 4147. Price sits just above EMA(20) near 4171 and the 4168.37 weekly open, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and ATR(14) contracting to about $14.5 as the range tightens. The Asia session open on weekend Hormuz headlines lifted price to the monday high before supply capped it, while the friday low and the thursday low frame support below, the latter near the 50% level of the cpi rebound fib.
Support: 4,168.37, 4,155.84, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,187.64, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the $4,230 October range top
Failure to hold the 4155.84 friday low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 4130.37 thursday low near the 50% cpi rebound fib
Repeated rejection at the 4187.64 monday high keeps the compression intact above the weekly open
Escalating Hormuz/Iran headlines and Tue Oct 20 US housing data (12:30 UTC) could shift yields and this read
00:04 UTC
Recovery from post-CPI low, capped near 4200 · RSI 57 · price 4,185.83
Higher lows since Wednesday, highs stalling at the 4198–4200 range cap.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's post-CPI low at 4073.55. Thursday's PPI-session dip to 4130 and Friday's 4155.84 swing low both held the higher-low trendline as falling yields offset hot US data. The rebound met rejection at the 4198.77 friday high during NY hours, just under Tuesday's 4200.49 week high, and Monday's Asia session has pushed back above EMA(20) and the 4165.79 weekly close toward that range cap, with RSI(14) near 57 mid-range rather than stretched.
Support: 4,165.79, 4,155.84
Resistance: 4,198.77, 4,200.49, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200.49 week high breaks the range cap and opens the path to the 4230 range top
Loss of the 4155.84 swing low and the higher-low trendline, near the 38.2% retrace of the post-CPI rebound at 4151, would end the recovery structure
Slip back below EMA(20) and the 4165.79 weekly close returns price to Friday's 4155–4190 chop
Hormuz headlines around the open and Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts could materially shift this read via yields