Gold opened the week at 4188.56 and set the 4217.25 week high in Monday's Asia session. It then printed lower highs into Wednesday's hot CPI, which drove a false break of the 4140s floor to 4073.55 during NY hours. Thursday's rebound came as yields slid despite the hot PPI, and it has retraced to the 61.8% fib near 4162 along a rising trendline of higher lows. Price holds above EMA20 (~4153) and EMA50, with EMA20 just crossing above EMA50, while RSI(14) near 59 has cooled since the NY push to the 4176.45 Thu high, the first cap below the week open and the 4200 range cap.
Support: 4,162.36, 4,153.30, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,176.45, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (06:30 broker), about 6.5h away; a hawkish lean could unwind Thursday's rebound
H1 close below the rising trendline and EMA20 (~4153) puts the 4130.37 PPI low back in focus, with the 4073.55 CPI low beneath
H1 close above the 4176.45 Thu high opens the path to the 4188.56 week open and the 4200 range cap
Repeated stalls at the 61.8% fib would mark it as a lower-high zone inside the range
22:03 UTC
Recovering within range, higher lows since CPI · RSI 63 · price 4,170.87
Higher lows off 4073.55 week low; testing upper half of 4073–4217 range.
Wednesday's hot CPI flushed gold from 4139 to a 4073.55 week low during NY hours. Thursday's Asia session then reclaimed most of the drop as yields slid and USD came off its highs, and the PPI low at 4130 and a 4143.82 higher low have since held along the rebound trendline. Price closed the NY session at 4170.87, above EMA(20) and the 61.8% fib of the week's 4217–4073 decline, with RSI(14) near 63. Tuesday's 4200 high and Monday's 4217 week high still mark the range top.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,176.45, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4176.45 session high opens the path to the 4200 tue high / range cap
Failure to hold the 4143.82 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and puts the 61.8% fib reclaim in doubt
Loss of the 4130 ppi low reopens the 4100 area and the CPI week low
21:06 UTC
Rebound off CPI low, still below week open · RSI 63 · price 4,170.87
Higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low, pressing the lower-highs line inside the weekly range.
Wednesday's hot CPI print at the NY open drove a $70 flush to the 4073.55 cpi low. Thursday's yield slide reversed it: higher lows formed from Asia through NY, and the ppi low near 4130 held twice to shape a double bottom. Late NY hours lifted price to 4176, retracing roughly three-quarters of the cpi drop fib and edging over the lower-highs line from Monday's 4217 week high. EMA(20) near 4150 caught the 16:00 UTC dip, RSI(14) sits at 62, and the week open at 4188.56 plus the 4200 range cap that rejected Tuesday's Asia rally still sit overhead.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean risks unwinding Thursday's rebound
H1 close above the 4188.56 week open puts the 4200 range cap and 4217 week high back in play
H1 closes back below the lower-highs line and EMA(20) near 4150 would mark the late NY push as a false break
Break of the higher-lows line and the 4130 ppi low exposes the 4073.55 cpi low
V-shaped recovery from CPI false break, testing upper half of week range.
Wednesday's hot CPI print drove a false break below the 4147 range floor to the 4073.55 week low. Gold has since retraced past the 61.8% level of the week's decline as falling yields outweighed Thursday's large PPI beat, with higher lows at the 4130 thu low and 4144. A late-NY push cleared the lower-high line from Monday's 4217 week high and the 4168.66 prior high, leaving price above EMA(20) near 4156 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, just under the 4188.56 weekly open and the 4200 range top.
Support: 4,168.66, 4,156.00, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,188.56, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC in the Asia session: a hawkish lean that revives October hike odds could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4200 range top, where Tuesday's rally was rejected, opens the path to the 4217.25 week high
Rejection at the 4188.56 weekly open, near the 78.6% retracement, would mark it as a fresh lower high
Failure to hold the 4168.66 prior high returns price toward ema20 near 4156
A break of the 4130 thu low takes out the higher-low line from Wednesday's low
19:04 UTC
Recovery from CPI low, stalling under lower-highs line · RSI 59 · price 4,159.57
Lower highs from 4217 week high; higher lows off 4073.55 CPI low; 4130–4168 range.
Gold has carved lower highs from Monday's Asia-session week high at 4217.25 and Tuesday's 4200.49 tue high. Wednesday's hot CPI print sent it to the 4073.55 week low during NY hours, before Thursday's Asia session recovered most of the drop as yields fell, building higher lows since the CPI low. Price is now compressing in a 4130–4168 range at the 61.8% retracement and the falling lower-highs line, with the 4168 thu high rejected after the hot PPI whipsaw at the NY open, EMA(20) and EMA(50) converged near 4146 and RSI(14) at 59.
Support: 4,147.00, 4,130.40, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4168 thu high and the lower-highs line opens the path to the 4200 tue high and 4217 week high
Loss of the 4130 thu low breaks the range floor and exposes the 4100 area and the 4073.55 week low
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 4147 keep the higher lows sequence intact
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 GMT Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; 4130–4169 consolidation after V-shaped rebound.
Gold opened the week at 4188.56 and printed the 4217.25 week high in Monday's Asia session. Since then it has set lower highs at 4200.49 and 4168.66, and Wednesday's hot US CPI drove a NY-hours flush to the 4073.55 cpi low. Thursday's Asia-session rebound on falling yields and a softer USD reclaimed EMA(20) near 4145 but stalled around the 61.8% retracement of the week's drop near 4162. The hot PPI whipsaw in the first hour of NY then held the 4130 twin lows before a rejection at the 4168.66 thu high, leaving RSI(14) in the mid-50s inside a 4130–4169 consolidation.
Support: 4,145.30, 4,130.40, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,168.66, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4168.66 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the path to the 4200.49 tue high
Failure to hold the 4130 twin lows and the recovery lows trendline exposes the 4073.55 cpi low
Loss of EMA(20) near 4145, which coincides with the 50% fib, returns price to the lower half of the consolidation
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Chair Warsh at 03:30 GMT Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 4217 peak; post-CPI V-rebound consolidating 4130–4169.
Wednesday's hot CPI print drove a NY-session flush to the 4073.55 week low. Asia-session buying on Thursday, helped by falling yields, then retraced half of the Monday-to-Wednesday drop. Price now sits on the 50% level, with EMA(20) and EMA(50) converged around 4144–4145 and RSI(14) flat near 52. The hot PPI spike to the 4168.66 ppi high stalled just above the 61.8% fib and at the lower-high line from Monday's 4217 peak. Thursday's 4130 low has held twice as the floor of the current consolidation.
Support: 4,143.90, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,168.66, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4168.66 ppi high and the lower-high line would break the week's lower-high sequence and expose the 4200 range top
Loss of the ema20 and then the 4130 thu low reopens the post-CPI base toward 4100 and the 4073.55 week low
Rejection again at the 61.8% fib keeps the Thursday consolidation intact below the lower-high line
Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC, during Asia hours) could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Rebound from CPI low, capped by lower highs · RSI 50 · price 4,148.88
Lower highs from 4217 week high; higher lows since 4074; 4130–4169 consolidation.
The week opened at 4188.56 and set its 4217 week high in Monday's Asia session. A lower high at the 4200 range top on Tuesday preceded Wednesday's hot-CPI slide in the NY session to the 4074 week low. Thursday's rebound came mostly in the Asia session as yields and the USD faded on AI-led risk-off, shrugging off the hot PPI. Since then price has chopped 4130–4169 around the 50% retracement of the week's drop. The PPI-hour dip printed a higher low at 4130, while the push to the 4169 thu high faded under the lower-high line. RSI(14) sits near 50, with price just above EMA(20) and EMA(50), which have converged near 4143.
Support: 4,130.40, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,168.66, 4,200.49, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hike signal puts the 4100 area and the 4074 week low back in focus
H1 close below the 4130 higher low breaks the rebound line and Thursday's recovery structure
H1 close above the 4169 thu high and the lower-high line opens the 4200 range top, with the 4217 week high above
Sustained trade below the ema20 cluster near 4143 shifts the 50% retracement from pivot to cap
Hammack at 20:30 UTC is a read-across ahead of Warsh
Lower highs since Monday; higher lows off Wednesday's CPI low.
Gold has printed lower highs all week: 4217 on Monday, the 4200.5 range top on Tuesday and 4170 on Wednesday. The hot CPI print then drove a NY-session slide to the 4073.6 CPI low. Thursday's recovery started in the Asia session as yields and the USD slipped on AI-led risk-off, and price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 4144, with demand stepping in at the 4130.4 Thu low twice, including through the hot PPI release. The rebound stalled at the 4168.7 Thu high, just above the 61.8% fib of the week's decline and under the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 4,144.00, 4,130.40, 4,073.60
Resistance: 4,168.70, 4,188.60, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4168.7 Thu high and the lower-highs line opens the 4188.6 weekly open, then the 4200.5 range top
Failure to hold the 4130.4 Thu low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4073.6 CPI low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC during the Asia session; it is the key event for October hike odds and could materially shift this read. Hammack at 20:30 UTC comes first.
Lower highs from 4217.25; post-CPI base holding 4130.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4217.25 week high in Monday's Asia session. Selling on Wednesday's hot CPI, into the NY session, set a 4073.55 low, and Thursday's Asia-led rebound on falling yields reclaimed EMA(20) near 4142. The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales beats then triggered a two-way spike: a sweep below the 4130 Thursday lows was bought back, but the push to 4168.66 met rejection at the lower-high trendline, just under Wednesday's 4170 high and the 61.8% fib of the week's drop, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 4,142.00, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,188.56, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4170 Wednesday high and the lower-high trendline would break the week's descending structure, putting the 4188.56 weekly open and the 4217.25 week high in view
Loss of EMA(20) near 4142 and the 4130 Thursday lows would unwind the rebound and reopen the 4073.55 CPI low
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read after the hot PPI
13:05 UTC
Corrective rebound inside a week of lower highs · RSI 57 · price 4,152.73
Lower highs from Monday's 4217 Asia-session peak, through Tuesday's 4200 tue high and Wednesday's 4170 pre-cpi high, set the week's tone before hot CPI in Wednesday's NY session flushed price to the 4073.55 cpi low. Thursday's Asian session recovered most of that leg as the equity sell-off pulled yields lower. The rebound has stalled at the 4160 cap (thu high, near the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline), while the 4130 floor (thu low) held twice, including on the hot-PPI spike. Price sits above EMA(20) near 4140 with RSI(14) around 57, mid-range rather than stretched.
Support: 4,145.40, 4,130.37, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4162 thu high and 61.8% retracement opens the 4170 pre-cpi high, then the 4200 tue high
Acceptance below the 50% fib at 4145 shifts focus back to the 4130 floor
Failure to hold the 4130 thu low exposes the 4073.55 cpi low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read as yields digest the PPI beat
Lower highs 4217/4200; higher low 4131.49 under 4162 cap.
Lower highs from Monday's Asia-session 4217.25 week high and Tuesday's 4200.49 led into Wednesday's NY-session hot-CPI flush to the 4073.55 cpi low. Thursday's Asia rebound, on falling yields and a softer USD, retested the pre-CPI breakdown zone and twice met supply at the 4161.75 rebound cap, right at the 61.8% fib, leaving a higher low at 4131.49 beneath. Price is sitting on EMA(20) near 4139 and EMA(50) near 4143 with RSI(14) back to ~53, mid-way between the 4100 range floor and the 4188.56 weekly open.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,188.56, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 4100 range floor back in focus
H1 close above the 4161.75 rebound cap and the lower-highs line opens the 4188.56 weekly open, then the 4217.25 week high
Failure to hold the 4131.49 higher low confirms a lower high at the cap and exposes 4100, then the 4073.55 cpi low
Lower highs from 4217 since Monday; CPI false break of 4100 floor reclaimed, higher low at 4131.
The week opened at the 4188.56 weekly open. Monday's Asia-session spike to 4217 was rejected, and a lower-highs sequence followed with 4200 on Tuesday, before Wednesday's hotter US CPI print in the NY session knocked gold through the $4,100 range floor to a 4073.55 week low. That break has failed: easing yields drove the rebound mostly in Thursday's Asia session, lifting price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) in the ema zone near 4140 and through the 61.8% fib at 4152. Price is now retesting the 4161.75 thu high, which has capped two attempts and sits just under the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) at 61 and not yet stretched.
Support: 4,140.00, 4,131.49, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,188.56, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~90 min) could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4161.75 thu high and the lower-highs line opens the path to the weekly open at 4188.56 and the range top near 4200
Failure to hold the ema zone near 4140 and the 4131.49 thu low breaks the rebound support line and puts the 4073.55 week low back in view
EMA(20) is converging on EMA(50) from below; an ema cross would confirm the post-CPI recovery structure
10:03 UTC
Week of lower highs, sharp rebound off CPI low · RSI 62 · price 4,157.01
Lower highs from 4217 into a CPI flush to 4073.55, then a V-recovery with a higher low at 4131.5.
The week opened near 4188.56 and printed its high at 4217.25 in Monday's Asia session. It then built a run of lower highs: 4200.49 on Tuesday (the range top) and 4170.40 before Wednesday's hot US CPI. The CPI beat flushed price to 4073.55 during NY hours, below the 4100 range floor. That break faded fast as yields and the USD eased, and Thursday's Asia and London sessions lifted gold to the 4161 session high, setting a higher low at 4131.5 on the way. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 4138 and above the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline (≈4152). RSI(14) is near 62 as it retests the 4161 session high, the second touch there today.
Support: 4,138.00, 4,131.50, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,161.00, 4,170.40, 4,200.50
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 4100 floor and the cpi low back in focus
H1 close above the 4161 session high and the 4170.4 pre-cpi high breaks the week's lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the ema20 near 4138 and the 4131.5 higher low undercuts the higher-lows recovery line
4200.5 range top capped Tuesday; it is the next level to watch for rejection or break if 4170 gives way
Lower highs from 4217; CPI break of 4100 reclaimed, price testing the lower-highs line.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session spike to the 4217.25 week high, with Tuesday's 4200.49 the last test of the range top. Hot US CPI then broke the 4100 round number in Wednesday's NY session to a 4073.55 week low. That break failed: today's Asia session reclaimed 4100 and ran to a 4161.75 rebound high as yields and the USD eased, and the pullback to 4131.49 into London open held EMA(20), near 4135. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop (~4152) and on the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) back near 60 from 21 at the low.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,200.00, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4161.75 rebound high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4200 range top and the 4217.25 week high back into view
Loss of the higher-lows line and the 4131.49 pullback low, where EMA(20) also sits, exposes the 4100 round number
Acceptance back below 4100 would undo the false break and re-open the 4073.55 week low
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; rebound stalled near the 61.8% retrace.
Since Monday's 4188.56 open, gold has printed lower highs at 4217, 4200, 4170 and 4161. Asia-session gains were sold through London and NY, and the hot US CPI beat on Wednesday drove a NY-session flush to the 4073.55 cpi low, briefly below the 4100 round number. Thursday's Asia rebound came as yields and USD eased; it cleared the 50% of the week fib and stalled at the 4160.87 asia high just under the 61.8%, while the 4131.49 pullback low held near the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster around 4133–4138, with RSI(14) back at ~58 from oversold.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,160.87, 4,170.40, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4160.87 asia high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the week's lower-high sequence, with the 4170.40 pre-cpi high next
Failure to hold the 4131.49 pullback low reopens the 4100 round number and the 4073.55 cpi low
Range top at 4200.49 capped Monday and Tuesday; only acceptance above it alters the 4100–4200 range read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, Asian rebound fading · RSI 50 · price 4,138.19
Lower highs all week; rebound capped near 61.8% retrace.
Each day this week printed a lower high from Monday's 4217.25 peak. During NY hours Wednesday, the hot US CPI beat flushed price through 4100 to the 4073.55 cpi low before a false break of the range floor developed. The Asian session rally to the 4160.87 asia high, helped by easing yields and USD, stalled just shy of the 61.8% level of the week fib and below the lower highs line. Rejection there has price back under psych 4150, holding above EMA(20) near 4131 and the session low but pinned at EMA(50) around 4141, with RSI(14) cooled to ~50.
Support: 4,131.49, 4,111.40, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,160.87, 4,200.49
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4131.49 session low exposes the 4111 asia base where Thursday's rally launched
H1 close above the lower highs trendline and the 4160.87 asia high breaks the week's descending sequence; range top at 4200.49 next
Hourly acceptance back above psych 4150 shifts the read back toward the upper half of the week fib
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read; a move back below 4100 reopens the cpi low
06:04 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound fading · RSI 52 · price 4,135.56
Lower highs each session since Monday; break below 4100 reversed.
Gold has printed a lower high every session since Monday's 4217.25 week high. Wednesday's hot US CPI print extended the slide during NY hours to a 4073.55 CPI low before the drop below the 4100 round number failed, and Asia reclaimed it as yields and USD eased. The Asian rebound stalled at the 4161.75 Asia high, at the 61.8% of the week-decline fib and under the lower-highs line. Price now sits between EMA(20) near 4130 and EMA(50) near 4142, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 4,129.90, 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,145.40, 4,161.75, 4,188.56
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 4145 and then the 4161.75 Asia high would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of EMA(20) near 4130 shifts focus back to the 4100 round number; a close below the 4073.55 CPI low confirms a fresh lower-low
Weekly open at 4188.56 marks the upper half of the 4100–4200 range a softer-USD rebound would need to clear
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; Asia rebound capped at 61.8% retracement.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4217.25 week high. Wednesday's hot US CPI extended the slide during NY hours to a 4073.55 cpi low, with RSI(14) dipping below 20. Thursday's Asia session rebound came as yields and the USD faded their post-CPI spike, and it reclaimed both EMAs before stalling at the 61.8% fib with a 4161.75 asia high. Price now sits on the 50% fib at 4145.4, with EMA(50) at ~4142 just beneath and EMA(20) at ~4130 still below EMA(50).
Support: 4,145.40, 4,130.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.40, 4,188.56
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 50% fib at 4145 and EMA(50) exposes the ema20 near 4130.
A close above the 4161.75 asia high and the lower-highs trendline opens the path to the 4170.40 pre-cpi high, then the 4188.56 weekly open.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.7h) could materially shift this read; a loss of 4100 puts the 4073.55 cpi low back in play.
Lower highs since Monday; CPI range break, now retracing.
Gold has printed lower highs from Monday's 4217.25 week high, and Wednesday's hot US CPI broke the 4140s floor during NY hours for a week low at 4073.55. Asia session buying today has retraced to a 4161.75 Asia high, just under the 61.8% fib of the week's drop and below the 4170.40 Wed high, with RSI(14) back at 57 after the oversold CPI flush. Price is now pivoting on the EMA50 near 4142. Below that, the EMA20 near 4128 lines up with the 38.2% retracement, ahead of the 4100 range floor.
Support: 4,142.20, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,161.75, 4,170.40, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4170.40 Wed high and the lower-highs line breaks the week's descending structure; 4217.25 week high is the next reference
Rejection at the 4161.75 Asia high / 61.8% fib keeps the move a retracement of the CPI breakdown
Failure to hold the EMA20 near 4128 exposes the 4100 range floor and the 4073.55 week low
Lower highs Mon–Wed; CPI break below 4100 reversed, lower-highs line cleared in Asia.
Hot US CPI knocked gold from the 4170 CPI-day high to a 4073.55 CPI low in Wednesday's NY session, a break below the 4100 range floor that did not hold. Asia session demand has since recovered nearly the whole drop, cleared the lower-highs line from Tuesday's 4200 top and lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the mid-60s. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the 4217 week high to CPI low decline, just under the CPI-day high, with the weekly open near 4189 above that.
Support: 4,135.87, 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,170.40, 4,188.56, 4,217.25
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4170 CPI-day high opens the path to the 4189 weekly open
Close above the 4217 week high negates the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the pre-CPI low at 4136 puts the 4100 range floor back in focus
Acceptance back below 4100 re-exposes the 4073.55 CPI low and revives the range-break read
Highs have stepped lower all week, from Monday's 4217 to Tuesday's 4200 and the 4170 wed high. Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked gold through the 4100 range floor to a 4073.55 cpi low during NY hours, but price reclaimed 4100 by the NY close, and a sharp Asia session rally has carried it back to the pre-CPI 4140 area. The 4151 asia high stalled at the 50% level of the Monday–CPI fib, just under the 4156 cpi high and the lower highs trendline, with RSI(14) back near 57 and price above ema20 (~4123) but pinned at EMA(50) (~4141).
Support: 4,122.60, 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,151.38, 4,155.77, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4156 cpi high and the 4170 wed high breaks the lower highs trendline and the 61.8% Monday–CPI fib level
Rejection at the asia high with a slip back below ema20 near 4123 puts the 4100 range floor back in play; acceptance below it revives the CPI breakdown
A move through the 4073.55 cpi low would extend the week's lower-low sequence
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday, about 10h out, could materially shift this read, as could Fed Chair Warsh's remarks
Lower highs intact; rebound testing trendline after range-floor false break.
Lower highs at 4217, 4200 and 4170 shaped the week until Wednesday's hot US CPI print broke the 4100 range floor in the NY session and set a week low at 4073.55. So far that break has been a false break. Price ground back above 4100 into the NY close, then added nearly $28 in the first hour of the Asia session, reclaiming EMA(20) near 4121 and EMA(50) near 4140 as RSI(14) recovered to about 58. The rebound is now pressing the lower-highs trendline and the 50% retracement of the week's 4217–4073 decline around 4145–4150, with the 4146.60 session high capping it so far.
Support: 4,121.00, 4,100.00, 4,073.55
Resistance: 4,146.60, 4,162.40, 4,170.40
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% fib at 4162 would break the week's lower-high sequence, with the 4170 cpi-day high next
Rejection at the 4146.60 session high and a slip back below EMA(20) near 4121 would break the rebound higher lows and expose the 4100 range floor
Acceptance back below 4100 restores the CPI breakdown and puts the 4073.55 week low back in focus
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims, plus Fed Chair Warsh's remarks, could materially shift this read