21:08 UTC
Downtrend from August peak, now ranging · RSI 40 · price 4,155.68
Lower highs since 4696.74; 4066–4227 range.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4696.74 peak on Aug 25. The Sep 28 breakdown from the 4245 area left price below a flattening-to-falling ema50 near 4290, and the Aug–Oct decline has since paused in a 4066–4227 range for about two and a half weeks. This week's push above 4200 met rejection under the lower-high trendline, and today's hotter core CPI, with yields and the dollar firm, adds pressure, though the daily closes so far have not broken the range floor at 4066.
Support: 3,959.70
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,290.00, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4066 range floor confirms a lower-low and exposes the july base near 3960
- Daily close above the 4227 range top and the lower-high trendline challenges the downtrend read
- ema50 near 4290, with the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline at 4307 just above, is the next test on any recovery
- Reclaiming 4399.53, the last lower high, would break the lower-high sequence
- US PPI, Retail Sales and claims Thu 12:30 UTC, plus Fed Chair Warsh's speech, could materially shift this read