NY high 4198.77 rejected; higher low at 4155.84, compressing 4166–4170 into the weekly close.
The NY session spike to the 4198.77 session high was fully rejected. Gold fell back inside the Asian range (4147.22–4186.34) as yields firmed into the US close, with Friday's Industrial Production beat keeping the strong-data story in place. Demand at the 4155.84 NY low held above the morning low, and the late bounce stalled at the 4172.52 bounce high, right at the 38.2% fib. Price is now compressing in a 4166–4170 micro range into the weekly close.
Support: 4,166.08, 4,155.84, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,172.52, 4,186.34, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4172.52 bounce high (38.2% fib) reopens the 4186.34 asian high and then the 4198.77 session high
Loss of the micro range at 4166 and a break below the 4155.84 ny low would expose the 4147.22 asian low
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) bring gap risk to the Monday open and could reset this structure
20:32 UTC
Intraday down from session high, flattening into the close · RSI 55 · price 4,168.83
Failed push above London high, lower highs since; late-NY drift between 4155 and 4172.
NY broke above the London high to a day high of 4198.77 as yields slid, then gave it all back as yields firmed again. A floor formed just above the ny low at 4154.71. The late bounce stalled at 4172.52, a swing high at the 38.2% fib of the sell-off, and price is drifting mid-range in the final minutes of Friday's session.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,172.52, 4,186.34, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
A close above the 4172.52 swing high reopens the Asian high at 4186.34
Failure to hold the 4154.71 ny low exposes the Asian low at 4147.22
Weekend IMF meetings carry gap risk into the Monday open versus the 4198.77 day high and the Asian low
Thin late-Friday liquidity; ATR near $5.8 is set to compress into the close
Lower highs off 4198.77 day high, late-NY range 4156–4172.
The Industrial Production beat drew a dip to 4154.71, then a spike to the 4198.77 day high. That high was rejected as yields firmed, and price slid back to the 4156 NY low twice. Into the pre-weekend close gold is chopping between 4156 and the 4172.52 range top, sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the asian low-to-day high leg.
Support: 4,155.84, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,172.52, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4172.52 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the path toward the day high at 4198.77
Failure to hold the 4155.84 NY low exposes the 4147.22 asian low
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) bring gap risk into the Monday Asia session open
20:05 UTC
Down from day high, stabilising · RSI 49 · price 4,167.97
Post-rejection base, 4155.8–4172.5 late-NY range.
The NY spike after the US data tagged a day high at 4198.8, just shy of 4200, and was rejected as yields firmed. The selloff sent price back inside the Asian range, where it has held a base low near 4155.8 through late NY hours. The bounce stalled at the 4172.5 swing high, the 38.2% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and price pinned to EMA20 into the weekly close.
Support: 4,155.80, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,172.50, 4,186.30, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
Close above the 4172.5 swing high opens the 50% fib near 4177 and then the asian high at 4186.3
Failure of the 4155.8 base low exposes the 4150 area and the asian low at 4147.2
Thin liquidity into the weekly close; weekend IMF meetings carry gap risk into the reopen
Reclaim of the 4198.8 day high would put the 4200 rejection area back in play
19:47 UTC
Two-way intraday, rebounding off NY lows · RSI 54 · price 4,169.16
Rejection below 4200, then double bottom at 4155–4157 with the bounce capped at 38.2% fib.
NY open spiked to a 4198.77 ny high as yields eased after Warsh, but the move was rejected shy of 4200. It then unwound to a 4155–4157 double bottom as Treasury yields firmed into the US close. The late-NY bounce is stalling at the 4172.5 bounce high, the 38.2% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) mid-range near 54.
Support: 4,155.84, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,172.52, 4,186.34, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Close above the 4172.5 bounce high (38.2% fib) opens 4177–4182 (50–61.8%) and then the 4186.3 asian high
Failure at the 4155.8 ny low breaks the double bottom and exposes the 4147.2 asian low
Repeat rejection under the 4198.8 ny high keeps the 4200 cap intact
Friday close and thin late-NY liquidity; weekend IMF meetings carry headline risk into the Monday open
19:32 UTC
Two-way range after NY spike faded, late bounce · RSI 50 · price 4,170.14
Lower highs off 4198.8 day high, double low near 4156, minor higher high back above 4167.9.
Early-NY spike on a softer USD ran to a 4198.8 day high, then met rejection below 4200 and faded all the way back to a double low at 4156. The late-NY bounce has reclaimed the 4167.9 break level, with RSI(14) at 50 and price between EMA20 (~4167) and EMA50 (~4172, near the fib 38.2).
Support: 4,167.90, 4,155.80, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,172.20, 4,178.60, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
Close above the 4178.6 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and opens the path back to the 4198.8 day high
Failure at the fib 38.2 / EMA50 near 4172 keeps the fade intact; a slip back under the 4167.9 break level returns focus to the double low
Loss of the 4155.8 double low exposes the 4147.2 asian low
Friday close at 21:00 UTC in thin late-NY trade; weekend IMF headlines are the next event risk
19:17 UTC
Intraday downswing, flattening late NY · RSI 46 · price 4,165.34
Lower highs at 4167.9 over a 4155 NY low; compression after a failed spike.
Early NY swept down to 4154.71, then spiked through the London high to a 4198.77 day high on the softer USD and easing yields. Price was rejected just under 4200 and has given back almost the whole spike. Late NY is compressing between the 4155 NY low and lower highs at 4167.9, still below EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,167.90, 4,171.50, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4167.9 lower highs reopens the 61.8% fib of the NY spike at 4171.5
Failure to hold the 4155 NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4147 Asian low
A return to the 4198.77 day high would retest the sub-4200 rejection
Thin late-Friday trade into the weekend IMF meetings can produce headline-driven gaps
19:06 UTC
Pullback from NY high, momentum fading · RSI 38 · price 4,160.44
Lower highs from 4198.77, basing 4155–4160 into the Friday close.
Gold spiked from the 4154.71 spike low to the 4198.77 NY high after the 13:15 UTC US data and a softer USD, but supply capped it just under $4,200 and the move has fully unwound. Late NY is basing at 4155–4160 beneath a 4167.89 lower high, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,167.89, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.71 spike low exposes the asian low at 4147.22
Break above the 4167.89 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the pullback read
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed headlines could gap price at the Monday open
18:47 UTC
Downtrend from the NY session high · RSI 41 · price 4,158.98
Lower highs from 4198.8, price back inside the Asian range.
The post-Industrial Production flush to the 4154.71 ny spike low was bought to a 4198.77 session high, which was rejected just under $4,200. NY hours have since retraced the whole leg on lower highs to 4155.84, putting price back inside the Asian range and below the 4186.34 Asian high. Late NY on Friday, RSI(14) sits near 41 and ATR runs about $7, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,167.90, 4,186.34, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4154.71 ny spike low exposes the 4147.22 asian low
A reclaim of the 4167.9 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off near 4172 in play
The asian high at 4186.3 and the session high at 4198.8 cap the upside below $4,200
Friday close and weekend IMF headlines could gap the open
Lower highs since NY rejection below 4200, pressing 4155–4160 shelf.
NY session swept the 4154.71 ny low and spiked to a 4198.77 session high on USD softness, but met rejection just under the 4200 psych and has stepped down in lower highs since. Price is back on the 4155–4160 shelf near the swing low. The bounce stalled at the 4167.89 lower high, a shallow retracement well short of the fib 38.2% at ~4172.8.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,167.89, 4,186.34, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.71 ny low exposes the 4147.22 asian low, the base of the Asian range
Close above the 4167.89 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 4186.34 asian high
Friday weekly close and weekend IMF meeting headlines could gap price at the Asia session open
Recovery back through the 4198.77 session high and 4200 would invalidate the rejection read
Lower highs since NY peak, basing above 4156.79 swing low.
Early NY swept the ny low at 4154.71, then the softer-USD bid ran price to a session high of 4198.77, where it was rejected below the 4200 psych level. The leg has since retraced about 78.6% in a lower-high sequence. Late NY is basing above the 4156.79 swing low, with the 4167.89 minor high capping the bounce and RSI(14) at 43, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,156.79, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,167.89, 4,171.54, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4156.79 swing low and 4154.71 ny low exposes the 4147.22 asian low
Reclaim of the 4167.89 minor high and the 4171.54 fib 61.8 breaks the lower-high sequence
Thin late-Friday trade and weekend IMF headlines carry gap risk into the open
4198.77 session high / 4200 psych remains the cap; a rebound in yields or the USD would undercut the bounce
Lower highs since 4198.77 NY high, lows holding 4155-4157.
Early NY spiked from 4154.71 to a session high of 4198.77 on the softer USD, clearing the London high before rejection just under $4,200. The leg has since fully unwound to a 4156.79 swing low in late NY, with a lower high at 4167.89 and price back under the London low at 4171.34.
Support: 4,156.79, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,167.89, 4,171.34, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4156.79 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4147.22 asian low
Reclaim of the 4171.34 london low breaks the lower-high chain off the 4198.77 session high
Friday late-NY liquidity into the weekend close; Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact
17:47 UTC
Pullback after NY spike, momentum soft · RSI 40 · price 4,164.32
Lower highs from 4198.77, retesting pre-spike lows.
The NY spike ran from 4154.71 to a 4198.77 day high, was rejected under 4200 psych, and has retraced about 80% of the move into a 4156.79 ny low after London close. RSI(14) sits near 40 with price below both EMAs. The 17:30 bounce to 4167.89 is the first higher high since the sell-off, as yields and USD stabilise per the digest.
Support: 4,156.80, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,171.50, 4,186.30, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
A close below the 4154.7–4156.8 ny low pair erases the NY spike and exposes the 4147.2 asian low.
A reclaim of the 4171.5 fib 61.8 would mark the drop as corrective, with the 4186.3 asian high next.
The 4198.8 day high and 4200 psych remain the session cap.
Thin Friday liquidity into the close; the US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact.
17:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed NY spike · RSI 36 · price 4,160.31
Lower highs from 4198.77, testing swing lows.
The NY-open spike off the 4154.71 spike base cleared the London high at 4192.28 and printed a session high at 4198.77, but supply capped it below the 4200 round number as the USD dip stalled. Price has since given back about 90% of that spike in a chain of lower highs. After London close it is pressing the 4156.79 swing low, with RSI(14) near 36 and inside the Asian range.
Support: 4,156.79, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,169.92, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4154.71 spike base fully erases the NY spike and exposes the 4147.22 asian low
Reclaim of the 4169.92 lower high breaks the descending lower-high sequence
Friday late-NY liquidity thinning into the weekly close; the 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is low impact
17:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the NY high · RSI 35 · price 4,157.26
Lower highs and lower lows since 14:15 UTC, back inside the Asian range.
The NY-open surge from the 4154.71 NY low, driven by the USD slide and easing yields, stalled at the 4198.77 NY high just under $4,200. That rejection has since unwound the whole move. London and NY breaks above the Asian high at 4186.34 have failed, and late in the NY session price is pressing the NY low through a chain of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet stretched.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,166.33, 4,177.80, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.71 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4147.22 Asian low
Reclaim of the 4166.33 lower high breaks the descending chain, with the fib 50% at 4177.8 next in line
Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact; thin late-Friday trade and any renewed yield or USD move remain the main swing factors
17:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed NY spike · RSI 40 · price 4,160.10
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4198.77 NY high, price pressing the swing low.
NY session spiked from the 4154.7 NY low through the London high at 4192 to 4198.77 as USD stayed on the back foot. The break failed with a rejection just below 4200, and the move has since unwound in a lower-high chain back to the 4158 swing low. RSI(14) sits near 40, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,158.40, 4,154.70, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,169.90, 4,178.60, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
A break of the 4154.7 NY low completes a full retrace of the NY rally and exposes the 4147.2 asian low
An M15 close above the 4170 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the fib 50% retrace of the NY drop sits at 4178.6
Recovery through the 4198.8 NY high and 4200 psych would negate the false break
Budget statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact; a move in US yields remains the main driver into the close
16:47 UTC
Intraday reversal lower, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 42 · price 4,165.36
NY spike to 4198.77 rejected below 4200; lower highs into 4158–4166 support.
NY open swept down to the 4154.71 spike base, then squeezed to a 4198.77 session high. Supply capped it below 4200 psych, and the spike has since unwound into the low 4160s on a run of lower highs. Price sits near the 78.6% fib of that move, with long lower wicks at the 4158.58 swing low; RSI(14) is near 42 and price is below both EMAs as yields and USD stabilise after Warsh's no-guidance remarks.
Support: 4,158.58, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,171.54, 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4158.58 swing low and 4154.71 spike base exposes the 4147.22 asian low
Reclaim of the fib 61.8 at 4171.54 would break the lower-high sequence; london high 4192.28 is next overhead
Push back through the 4198.77 session high and 4200 psych would invalidate the rejection read
Friday NY afternoon into the weekly close: renewed yield or USD moves remain the swing factor; 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is low impact
16:32 UTC
Intraday down-leg after NY spike, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,163.01
NY rally reversed below 4200; lower-high sequence pressing the 4160 swing low.
After the US IP print, the NY dip to the 4154.71 ny low reversed into a false break of the 4192 London high. That rally was rejected at a 4198.77 day high just under 4200. Price has since given back almost the entire leg through a chain of lower highs and sits at 4163, near the 78.6% NY rally fib and just above the 4160 swing low, with RSI(14) ~42 and price below both EMAs as yields and USD stabilise.
Support: 4,160.17, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,169.92, 4,181.47, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4160 swing low exposes the 4154.71 ny low, then the 4147 asian low
Recovery above the 4170 lower high breaks the down-sequence; 4181 lower high is next
4198.77 day high / 4200 psych capped NY; a close above it negates the rejection read
US Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is low impact; yields/USD drift into the weekly close is the main driver
False break above london high, price back inside Asian range.
Early NY ran from the 4154.71 ny low to a 4198.77 ny high, clearing the 4192.28 london high as yields eased, but supply capped it just under $4,200. The whole spike has since retraced to a 4160.17 swing low, with price back inside the 4147–4186 Asian range and RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 4,160.17, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Hold of the 4160.17 swing low; a break exposes the 4154.71 ny low and then the 4147.22 asian low
M15 close back above the 4192.28 london high reopens a test of the 4198.77 ny high and $4,200
Late-Friday NY liquidity and the 18:00 UTC Budget Statement (low impact) may leave the NY spike fib range unresolved into the close
16:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend after NY spike faded · RSI 39 · price 4,168.75
Lower highs from 4198.77, back below London low.
Demand stepped in at the ny low of 4154.71 around the US data and drove price to a 4198.77 day high as yields eased. That false break of the london high at 4192.28 met rejection under 4200, and price has since faded to 4168, between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the NY rally fib. Lower highs along the fade line, RSI(14) at 39 and closes below the london low at 4171 leave the 4163 swing low as the next reference, after London close.
Support: 4,163.19, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,171.34, 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
Close back above the london low at 4171.34 and the fade line would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4163 swing low exposes the ny low at 4154.71, then the asian low at 4147.22
A move through the london high at 4192.28 and the day high at 4198.77 reopens the 4200 handle
Weekend IMF Fed commentary is the main risk to yields; the 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is low impact
15:47 UTC
Two-way, pulling back from NY high · RSI 46 · price 4,173.39
NY sweep-and-reversal leg now 61.8% retraced, back inside London range.
NY open swept the london low and the 4163.19 pre-ny low down to the 4154.71 ny low, then reversed hard to a 4198.77 ny high as the USD slide extended. That push was a false break of the 4192.28 london high and was rejected just shy of $4,200 psych. Price has since given back 61.8% of the leg and sits on the 4171 london low, with RSI(14) near 46 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,171.34, 4,163.19, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,181.94, 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171 london low turns the NY leg into a full retracement toward the 4163.19 pre-ny low and the 4154.71 ny low
Reclaim of the 4182 38.2 fib and the 4192.28 london high reopens the 4198.77 ny high and $4,200 psych
London close ~16:00 UTC can thin liquidity. The 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is low impact, so US yields and USD remain the swing factor.
False break above London high, retracing to 50% of NY leg.
NY flushed to a 4154.7 NY low, then spiked through the 4192.3 London high to a 4198.8 session high as yields and USD eased, but stalled below 4,200 psych. Four straight red bars have pulled price back to the 50% retracement near 4176.7, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,171.40, 4,154.70
Resistance: 4,181.90, 4,192.30, 4,198.80
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 near 4171.4, which lines up with the London swing low, opens a full round-trip toward the 4154.7 NY low
Recovery above the fib 38.2 at 4181.9 puts the 4192.3 London high and 4198.8 session high back in play
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact; a yield rebound into the weekly close could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Two-way, NY spike fading · RSI 53 · price 4,178.93
NY low sweep to 4154.71, then failed push above the London high.
Early NY hours swept below the swing low to a 4154.71 NY low, then reversed sharply to a 4198.77 session high on the softer USD and yield drop. That high has since been rejected: the move back below the 4192.28 London high reads as a false break, and price now sits at 4179. That is just under EMA20 and between the 38.2–50% retrace of the NY rally.
Support: 4,171.34, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4192.28 London high reopens the 4198.77 session high and the $4,200 handle
Failure at the 4171.34 swing low (below the 50% NY rally retrace) exposes the 4154.71 NY low
US yields and DXY into the weekly close remain the driver; the 18:00 UTC Budget Statement is low impact
NY sweep of London low then V-reversal to new session high; pullback under way.
Early NY hours swept below the London-session swing low at 4171 to the NY low at 4154.71, then reversed sharply to a session high of 4198.77 as easing yields and a softer USD carried gold. That high was rejected just shy of the 4200 psych level, and price is easing back below the London high at 4192 with RSI(14) cooling from 70s to the mid-50s.
Support: 4,171.34, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4198.77 session high and 4200 psych extends the NY rally leg
Price holding beneath the 4192.28 london high keeps the rejection read in play
Failure to hold the 4171.34 swing low (61.8% of the ny rally fib) unwinds most of the reversal
Renewed rise in US yields or a DXY bounce into the weekly close could materially shift this read; Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact
Sweep of lows to 4154.71 then V-reversal into session high, rejection at 4198.77.
Gold swept below the 4171.34 swing low to a 4154.71 NY low just before NY open, then reversed nearly 44 dollars in the first hour of NY as USD and yields eased. Supply capped the move at a 4198.77 session high just shy of the $4,200 cap. Price is now back below the London high at 4192.28, holding above the 38.2% of the NY rally fib near 4182, with RSI(14) cooling to about 55 and ATR(14) near 9.5 dollars.
Support: 4,171.34, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,198.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4198.77 session high clears the $4,200 cap and opens the path to the 4230 October range top
Failure to hold the 50% of the NY rally fib near 4177 and the 4171.34 swing low puts the 4154.71 NY low back in play
A break of the higher lows trendline from 4147.22 to 4154.71 would mark a shift to lower lows
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the Friday close in yields and USD could materially shift this read
V-reversal from NY low, new session high above London high.
Early NY trade flushed through the London lows to the 4154.71 NY low around the 13:15 UTC industrial production print, then reversed sharply as the USD and yields kept easing. The rally cleared the 4192 London high and stalled at 4198.77, just under the 4200 round number, with RSI(14) near 67 and the Asian high at 4186 now underneath.
Support: 4,192.28, 4,186.34, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
A sustained close above the 4200 round number opens the path to the 4230 range top
A close back below the 4192 London high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4186 Asian high exposes the 4154.71 NY low, which is the base of the NY rally fib
The US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC or a rebound in yields could materially shift this read
Higher low at NY open (4154.71 above Asian low 4147.22); V-recovery to the 4192 London high.
First hour of NY broke the london low at 4171.34 and flushed to 4154.71. Demand stepped in there and price recovered the whole move in three bars, back to the 4192 session high set in London, as easing yields and a softer USD keep gold bid below $4,200. RSI(14) is near 62, not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 890 pips ($8.9), so bars are wide.
Support: 4,181.40, 4,171.34, 4,154.71
Resistance: 4,192.75, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.75 session high opens the 4200 round number, which is the digest's range cap
Rejection at 4192 again leaves a second failure at the session high; losing the 4181.40 breakout bar low would confirm it
Break of the london low at 4171.34 negates the NY open false break and exposes the 4154.71 ny low
Rising lows trendline from the Asian low to the NY low marks the higher-low structure; a close below it breaks that chain
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC (f/c -29B$) and any yield rebound could shift this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday range, sharp rebound to the highs · RSI 60 · price 4,189.26
V-shaped recovery from 4154.71 retesting the 4192 session high; higher low above the Asian low.
The US Industrial Production beat drove a dip to 4154.71, beneath the 4171.34 swing low, but it failed to lift the USD. Gold then reversed the whole London pullback and is retesting the 4192.28 session high early in the NY session. The day range of 4147–4192 is intact, and the IP low sits as a higher low above the Asian low.
Support: 4,171.34, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4192.28 session high breaks the day range and brings the 4200 round number, the digest's stated cap, into play
A stall at 4192 followed by a drop back through the 4171.34 swing low would turn the rebound into a rejection
A break of the 4154.71 IP low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 4147.22 Asian low
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Fed-speak at the weekend IMF meetings could shift the USD tone
13:47 UTC
Two-way intraday, lower highs since London high · RSI 46 · price 4,175.00
London range 4171–4192 with descending highs; NY false break below range low reclaimed.
Gold rallied off the 4147 asian low to a 4192.28 session high early in London, then printed a chain of lower highs into the NY session. The early-NY drop broke the 4171 london low and reached a 4154.71 spike low around the hot IP print (0.7% vs 0.4%). That move was fully reclaimed within one bar as the USD stayed offered, leaving price at the 61.8% retrace just under the 4179.8 lower high.
Support: 4,171.30, 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,179.80, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4171 london low turns the false break into a failed reclaim and exposes the 4154.71 spike low
Close above the 4179.8 lower high breaks the descending highs line and opens the 4192.28 session high, then the 4200 round number
Thin calendar until the 18:00 UTC Monthly Budget Statement; yields and the USD likely drive the rest of NY hours
13:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 33 · price 4,161.39
London rejection at 4192, LH/LL chain, broken shelf at 4171.
London cleared the Asian high and printed a session high at 4192.28 before rejection, then a lower-high chain capped by the trendline into 4181.54. Early NY broke the 4171 broken shelf after the hotter import-price print and extended to an NY low of 4154.71 around the Industrial Production release. Price now sits mid-Asian range with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 640 pips.
Support: 4,154.71, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,171.34, 4,181.54, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4171.34 broken shelf invalidates the lower-low read
Failure to hold the 4154.71 NY low exposes the 4147.22 asian low
A break of the session-high trendline above the 4181.54 lower high would put 4192.28 session high back in play
Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is a secondary risk; yields and USD remain the main driver into the weekly close
13:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 38 · price 4,165.83
Lower highs/lower lows off the 4192 session high; back inside the Asian range.
London pushed through the Asian high to a 4192.28 session high but failed to hold, printing a series of lower highs into the NY open. The hotter US import-price print at 12:30 UTC knocked gold to a 4163.19 NY low, near the 61.8% retrace of the asia-london leg, with price below EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 4,163.19, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,171.34, 4,181.54, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC, f/c 0.4%) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4163.19 NY low breaks the 61.8% retrace of the asia-london leg and exposes the 4147.2 asian low
Reclaim of the 4171.3 prior low, then a break of the lower-highs trendline near the 4181.5 lower high, would negate the pullback structure
Close back above the 4192.3 session high puts the $4,200 cap back in play
13:04 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 41 · price 4,169.95
Lower highs and lower lows off the 4192 session high, holding mid Asian range.
London's rejection at the 4192.28 session high started a sequence of lower highs. The first NY hour cut to a 4163.19 NY low, and price now sits on the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41. Softer USD and yields kept gold firm overnight, but supply has capped every push below 4,200.
Support: 4,163.19, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,181.54, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read within the next bar
An M15 close below the 4163 NY low (61.8% area) exposes the 4147 Asian low
A close above the 4181.5 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4192 session high
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 4,175.03
Lower highs off 4192 session high, 4171 swing low holding.
London swept the 4186 asian high on the softer-USD, lower-yield backdrop but was rejected at 4192, a session high just shy of the $4,200 cap. A lower high sequence (4185, 4182, 4181.5) has since pulled price to the 38.2% fib of the 4147–4192 move near 4175. The 4171 swing low is holding, with price just under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50 into the NY open.
Support: 4,171.34, 4,164.43
Resistance: 4,181.54, 4,186.34, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4171 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the fib 61.8 at 4164
M15 close above the 4181.5 lower high breaks the pullback trendline; 4186 asian high and 4192 session high next
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower highs since London · RSI 45 · price 4,177.28
Lower highs off 4192.3 session high, holding 4171-4169 base.
London pushed through the Asian high at 4186.3 to a 4192.3 session high below the $4,200 cap, then faded back inside the range, printing lower highs into the London-NY transition with the latest at 4179.9. Dips are holding the 4171.3 swing low just above the 50% fib (4169.5) of the Asian low to session high leg. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s as softer USD and yields keep gold firm but capped.
Support: 4,171.30, 4,169.50, 4,164.40
Resistance: 4,179.90, 4,186.30, 4,192.30
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4179.9 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs trendline from the session high
Failure to hold the 4171.3 swing low and 50% fib at 4169.5 exposes the 61.8% fib near 4164.4
Reclaim of the 4186.3 Asian high reopens the 4192.3 session high and the $4,200 cap
Asian range high cleared then rejected; LH/LL chain since 4192, price at 38.2% retracement.
Gold climbed off the 4147 Asian low as US yields and the dollar slid, and London briefly cleared the 4186 Asian high to a 4192 session high before rejection. A chain of lower highs since then (4185, 4182, 4176) has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib near 4175, with the 4171 swing low the nearest floor and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,171.34
Resistance: 4,182.00, 4,186.34, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 50% fib at 4169.7
Recovery above the 4182 lower high breaks the pullback structure, with the 4186 asian high next
Fresh push through the 4192 session high would negate the rejection read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-open rejection.
London open pushed through the 4186.3 Asian high to a 4192.3 session high but could not hold it. Since then the lower high sequence (4185.2, then 4182.0) has taken price back through the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally near 4175, with RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs. A softer USD has not carried gold toward $4,200 today.
Support: 4,169.30, 4,163.30, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,182.00, 4,186.30, 4,192.30
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4182.0 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs and reopens the 4192.3 session high
A failure to hold the 4169.3 prior low, which sits near the 50% fib, exposes the 4163.3 swing low near the 61.8% retracement
A drop through the 4147.2 Asian low would undo the full Asian-session rally
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 45 · price 4,178.19
Lower highs off 4192.28 session high, London low 4172.64 holding.
Softer USD and yields fuelled the rally off the 4147 Asia low. London then pushed through the asian high at 4186.34 to a 4192.28 session high, where it met rejection and slipped back inside the Asian range. Since then price has printed lower highs down to 4182, and the london low at 4172.64 sits near the 38.2% fib of the 4147–4192 leg, with RSI(14) near 45 and price under EMA20.
Support: 4,172.64, 4,168.93, 4,164.43
Resistance: 4,182.00, 4,186.34, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
Break below the 4172.64 london low exposes the 4168.93 swing low and the 61.8% fib at 4164.43
Close above the 4182 lower high and descending trendline undoes the pullback read; above the 4192.28 session high, the $4,200 cap comes back into view
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands in the first hour of NY and could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 48 · price 4,178.34
Higher lows intact; false break above Asian high, retracing toward the 38.2% fib.
London cleared the Asian high at 4186.34 and printed a 4192.28 session high, but faced rejection there and slipped back inside the Asian range. The pullback found a floor at the 4172.64 London low, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-to-session high leg. Price sits under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 48, while softer yields keep gold just below the $4,200 psych level.
Support: 4,172.64, 4,169.31
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4186.34 Asian high would negate the false break and reopen the 4192.28 session high and 4200 psych
Failure to hold the 4172.64 London low exposes the 4169.31 swing low, near the 50% fib
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands early in the NY session; a yield move on the print could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, lower highs and lower lows since 4192.28.
A softer USD and lower yields carried gold from the 4147 Asian low through the 4186.34 Asian high. London's push to a 4192.28 London high was rejected, and price slipped back inside the range to the 38.2% fib of that leg near 4175. Lower highs at 4185 and a 4172.64 swing low frame the pullback, with RSI(14) at 43 and price sitting on the ema50 near 4174.
Support: 4,172.64, 4,168.93
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4172.64 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4168.93 pre-london low and the 50% fib near 4170
Reclaim of the 4186.34 Asian high and the lower highs trendline reopens the 4192.28 London high and the 4200 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) around the NY open could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 4,174.11
Lower high under session high; first lower low forming mid-London.
Gold climbed from the 4147.22 Asian low on softer yields after Warsh's neutral IMF remarks, and London extended the move to a 4192.28 session high. Price was rejected short of the $4,200 round number, set a lower high at 4185.20 and is now back near 4174, below EMA20 and on the 38.2% retracement of the rally. RSI(14) is at 41, and the pre-London low at 4168.93 sits close to the 50% level.
Support: 4,172.94, 4,168.93, 4,163.33
Resistance: 4,185.20, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4172.94 intraday low extends the lower-high sequence toward the pre-London low at 4168.93, then the 4163.33 swing low near the 61.8% fib
A reclaim of the 4185.20 lower high reopens the 4192.28 session high and the $4,200 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London break above Asian high faded.
Higher-low chain from the 4147.22 Asian-session low, extended by the 03:45 UTC pop after Warsh's speech as yields and the USD slipped, stalled at the 4192.28 session high in London. The break above the 4186.34 asian high failed and price is back inside, holding the 4175.17 london low at the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 48, with price just under EMA20.
Support: 4,175.17, 4,168.93, 4,163.33
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4175 london low and rising trendline breaks the HL chain, exposing the 4168.93 swing low and the 4163.33 warsh base (61.8% fib)
Reclaim of the 4186.34 asian high reopens the 4192.28 session high and the 4200 psych level
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) during NY hours could materially shift this read
London cleared the Asian high at 4186.34 and printed a 4192.28 session high, then faded to a 4175.17 pullback low, the 38.2% fib of the 4147–4192 leg. The HH/HL chain from the warsh low at 4163.33 is still intact, with softer yields and a weaker USD keeping gold supported beneath the 4200 round number. Price is back below the Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 4,175.17, 4,168.93, 4,163.33
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4175.17 pullback low and rising support breaks the HH/HL chain; failure to hold the 4168.93 swing low confirms a lower low
Close back above the 4186.34 Asian high reopens the 4192.28 session high and the 4200 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) during the NY session could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the Asian low; first micro lower low after the London rejection.
Gold climbed from the 4147.22 Asian low during the Asia session as Warsh's neutral remarks and softer yields weighed on the USD. London open pushed through the 4186.34 Asian high to a 4192.28 session high, short of the 4200 round number, and was rejected. The pullback held at the 38.2% fib near 4175 and price is back near 4182 with RSI(14) at 54, mid-London.
Support: 4,175.17, 4,168.93, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
A close back above the 4186.34 asian high and the 4192.28 session high reopens the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4175 38.2% fib exposes the 4168.93 swing low; a break there ends the higher-low chain
False break above Asian high; testing higher-low chain.
Gold climbed from the 4147.22 Asian low to the 4186.34 Asian high during Asia as the USD slipped after Warsh's neutral remarks. Early London pushed through the Asian high to a 4192.28 session high, then sold off sharply back below it. Price now sits at the 38.2% retrace near 4175 on the HL trendline, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 4,168.93, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4168.93 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the 50% retrace
Reclaim of the 4186.34 Asian high reopens the 4192.28 session high and 4,200 psych range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
09:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after London high · RSI 53 · price 4,180.62
Higher lows since the Asian low; false break above the Asian high.
Softer yields and Warsh's neutral remarks lifted gold from the 4147 Asian low. London then pushed through the Asian high at 4186.34 to a 4192.28 session high, but a $10 rejection bar put price back inside the Asian range, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 53. The 4178.50 swing low, the rising higher-low trendline from 4163.33 and the 4169 consolidation floor at the 50% fib are the nearby supports.
Support: 4,178.50, 4,169.30, 4,163.33
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4186.34 Asian high negates the false-break read and puts the 4192.28 session high and 4200 psych in play
Failure to hold the 4178.50 swing low exposes the 4169 consolidation floor and 50% fib
A break of the higher-low trendline and 4163.33 ends the higher-low sequence from the Asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift this read via yields and USD
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 56 · price 4,182.62
Higher lows from the Asia low; London break of Asian high rejected back inside.
Gold climbed from the 4147.22 Asia low through the 4186.34 asian high early in London, helped by softer USD and falling yields. The latest bar was rejected sharply at the 4192.28 session high, dropping back inside the Asian range and onto ema20 and the rising trendline. The london low at 4178.50 still holds the higher-low chain, with RSI cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 4,178.50, 4,168.93
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4178.50 london low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 4168.93 swing low near the 50% fib
Close back above the 4192.28 session high reopens the 4200 range top cited in the macro digest
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
HH/HL chain from Asia low, London broke Asian range high.
London cleared the asian high at 4186.3 and pushed to a session high of 4192.3. That extends the higher-low sequence from the 4147 Asia low along the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched. Softer USD and falling yields underpin the move, and the 4200 round number, the digest's range-top rejection area, sits just overhead.
Support: 4,186.34, 4,178.50, 4,168.93
Resistance: 4,192.28, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4200 round number would mark the range top holding again
M15 close back below the asian high at 4186.3 turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the london low at 4178.5 and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain; swing low 4168.9 next
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Higher lows since the Asian low at 4147.22; London broke the Asian high and is stalling under 4190.
London cleared the Asian high at 4186.34 and printed a session high at 4189.84. The dip to the 4178.50 swing low held as a fourth higher low off the 4147.22 Asian low, keeping price on rising support, while a softer USD and lower yields underpin the move. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched, and price is pressing the 4,190–4,200 range-top zone with two tests of 4189.
Support: 4,186.34, 4,178.50, 4,168.93
Resistance: 4,189.84, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 4189.84 session high opens the 4200 round number, the top of the two-week range
A slip back below the 4186.34 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4178.50 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain; the 4168.93 higher low and the 50% retracement of the Asia-London leg sit below
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields
Asian range high broken in London, holding just above it.
London open broke the Asian range high at 4186.34 and printed a session high at 4189.84. The dip held at the 4178.50 swing low, extending the higher-low chain from the 4147.22 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 63. A softer USD and falling yields after Warsh's neutral remarks are behind the bid, and price is now pressing the 4,170–4,200 two-week range top.
Support: 4,178.50, 4,168.93
Resistance: 4,189.84, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4178.50 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts 4168.93 back in play
4168.93 higher low sits near the 50% fib of the Asia low to session high leg; losing it, and the rising trendline, ends the intraday uptrend read
A close above the 4189.84 session high exposes the 4200 round number, the rejection area at the range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian high, then pulled back above 4178.
Asia session rallied from the 4147.22 low in a higher-low chain, helped by the softer USD and falling yields. London open cleared the Asian high at 4186.34 to a session high of 4189.84. The pullback has held 4178.50 on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 61 and the 4200 round number above.
Support: 4,178.50, 4,168.93
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,189.84, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4178.50 pullback low and trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 4168.93 swing low
Back inside the Asian range below 4186.34 turns the London breakout into a false break
Close above the 4189.84 session high opens a test of 4200, the round number and range top
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 55 · price 4,179.82
HH/HL chain since Asian low; London false break of Asian high.
Gold climbed off the 4147.22 asian low and London open pushed through the 4186.34 asian high to a 4189.84 session high. That push was rejected, and price slipped back to the prior high near 4177 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s. The leg tracks the softer USD and falling yields, and price is now pressing the $4,170–4,200 range top flagged in the macro read, with the 4169 swing low still holding the HL chain.
Support: 4,177.36, 4,169.31, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,189.84, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4169.31 swing low breaks the HL chain and opens the fib 50–61.8% zone at 4168–4163
Acceptance back above the asian high and 4189.84 session high puts the 4200 round number in play
Loss of the prior high at 4177 keeps the London false break in focus
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London pushed above the Asian high.
Early London extended the Asia-session climb from the asian low at 4147.22, clearing the Asian high at 4186.34 to a session high at 4189.84 as a softer USD and falling yields underpin gold. Price is pausing just under the 4200 psych at the digest's range top, with higher lows at 4163 and the swing low at 4168.93 holding the trendline and RSI(14) at 63, not stretched.
Support: 4,176.32, 4,168.93, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,189.84, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4186.34 Asian high would turn the London push into a false break
Loss of the london low at 4176.32 puts the 38.2% fib near 4173.5 in play
Close below the 4168.93 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Acceptance above the 4189.84 session high opens the 4200 psych, the two-week range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields
07:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at London open · RSI 62 · price 4,182.93
Higher-low chain from the 4147 Asian low; London poked above the Asian high and closed back inside.
Gold rallied through Asia from the 4147 low on a softer USD after Warsh's neutral remarks. Higher lows are holding above the rising trendline. London open pushed past the 4186.3 asian high to a 4189.84 session high, but the bar closed back below that level, and RSI(14) is near 62, short of an extreme.
Support: 4,176.30, 4,169.00, 4,163.30
Resistance: 4,186.30, 4,189.84, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4189.84 session high would put the 4200 round number in play, the top of the range cited in the market digest
Loss of the 4176.3 london low exposes the rising trendline
Below the trendline, the next level is the 4169 asian floor, which sits at the 50% fib of the Asia rally
Close below the 4169 asian floor breaks the higher-low chain; the 4163.3 swing low is next
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields
07:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending at London open · RSI 65 · price 4,187.80
Higher lows from the Asian low; breakout above the 4169–4186 consolidation.
Gold climbed through Asia off the 4147 Asian low as the USD slid on Warsh's neutral remarks. The 03:45 UTC spike to the 4186 prior high capped a 4169–4186 consolidation, and London open has broken above it to a 4188.8 session high. Higher lows at 4163 and 4169 keep the trendline intact, and RSI(14) near 65 is not stretched.
Support: 4,186.30, 4,169.00, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,188.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A return below the 4186 prior high would mark a false break back into the 4169–4186 range
4200 psych is the digest's prior rejection area, a zone to watch for rejection or break
A close below the 4169 range low and the higher-low trendline breaks the stepping structure, exposing the 4147 asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read in the NY session
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 62 · price 4,186.33
Higher lows from Asian low; 4169–4181 box broken at London open.
Gold cleared Thursday's 4177.36 prior high during Asia as Warsh's neutral IMF remarks pushed the USD to a 10-day low. Price then held a 4169–4181 box before the London open lifted it to a 4186.50 session high. Higher lows from the 4147.22 Asian low remain intact, and RSI(14) near 62 is not stretched.
Support: 4,177.36, 4,168.93, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,186.50, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186.50 session high opens the path to the 4200 round number, the prior rejection area
Failure to hold the 4168.93 swing low breaks the higher-low chain from the Asian low
A slip back under the 4177.36 prior high returns price to the 4169–4181 box
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 60 · price 4,179.04
Higher low at 4147, Asian breakout above NY high, 4169–4181 box.
With the USD near a two-week low, the Asia session cleared the prior NY high at 4177.36 and printed 4186.34. The pullback was absorbed at the 4168.93 range floor, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4147–4186 leg, with rising support from the Asian low intact. London open is pressing the 4181.56 range top with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 4,177.36, 4,168.93, 4,163.33
Resistance: 4,181.56, 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186.34 asian high reopens the 4200 round number
Loss of 4177.36 (prior NY high) returns price to the 4169–4181 box
Break below the 4168.93 range floor exposes the 4163.33 swing low and rising support
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift the read via yields
06:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 59 · price 4,178.25
Higher lows since 4147; 4169–4186 consolidation after breakout.
Asia session reversed from the 4147 Asian low and cleared yesterday's NY high at 4177.36, tagging an Asian high of 4186.34 as USD sits at a two-week low on falling yields after Warsh's neutral remarks. Since then price has held a 4169–4186 consolidation, with the pullback stalling near the 50% of the Asia leg. Higher lows from the 4163 swing low remain intact into the London open.
Support: 4,169.00, 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4169 range low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4163 swing low
Acceptance above the 4186 Asian high opens the 4200 psych level, the cap flagged in this week's range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Loss of 4147 Asian low would unwind the full Asia leg
06:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 4,175.15
Asian low 4147.22 above Thursday's 4130 spike low, new high at 4186.34; tight 4169–4177 range since 05:00 UTC.
Asia dipped to the 4147.22 Asian low, then reversed through Thursday's 4177 NY high to 4186.34, extending gold's rebound with USD near a two-week low. Since 05:00 UTC price has compressed between the 4169 range low and the 4177 range top, holding the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 ahead of London open.
Support: 4,168.90, 4,163.30, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.30, 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4177 range top reopens the 4186.34 Asian high, then the 4200 round number
Loss of the 4169 range low exposes the 4163 swing low and the 61.8% fib near 4162
Break below the 4147.22 Asian low would undo the overnight reversal
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields
Asia ran from the 4147.22 asian low to a 4186.34 session high around Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks as the USD slid. The spike was rejected and price has since compressed into a 4169–4177 box under the prior high. It now sits on the box floor near the 38.2% of the Asian leg fib ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral and price just under EMA20.
Support: 4,169.30, 4,163.30, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,177.30, 4,186.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4169 box floor exposes the 4163 swing low and the 61.8% of the Asian leg fib near 4162
Close back above the 4177 prior high reopens the 4186 session high, with the 4200 round number above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) and the Treasury yield reaction could materially shift this read
Asia higher low at 4147, breakout above NY prior high, now consolidating 4169.5–4181.
Gold broke the NY prior high at 4177 after Warsh's neutral IMF remarks extended the USD slide, printing a session high of 4186.3 late in Asia. Price has since held a tight range above 4169.5, near the 38.2% fib of the asian low to session high leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~59 heading into London open.
Support: 4,169.50, 4,163.30, 4,147.20
Resistance: 4,177.40, 4,186.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4169.5 range low exposes the 4163 higher low and the 50% fib
Loss of 4163 breaks the Asia higher-low chain and opens the 4147 asian low
Repeated closes back below the 4177 prior high turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 4186.3 session high extends the breakout toward the 4200 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields
Higher low at 4147 then breakout to 4186; now consolidating 4169.5–4176.
Asia dipped to the 4147.22 asian low, then rallied through yesterday's NY prior high at 4177.36 to a 4186.34 session high as Warsh's neutral IMF remarks extended the USD slide. Price has since slipped back under 4177 and is holding a 4169.5 pullback low near the 38.2% retracement ahead of London open, RSI(14) cooling to the high 50s.
Support: 4,169.52, 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4177.36 prior high reopens the 4186.34 session high and the 4200 psych cap
Close below the 4163.33 swing low breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain from the asian low
Loss of the 4169.52 pullback low exposes the 50–61.8% retracement band near 4167–4162
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift yields and this read
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after Asia high · RSI 60 · price 4,174.21
Higher-low chain from 4147; breakout above prior high now being retested.
Asia session lifted gold off the 4147.22 Asian low and through the prior high at 4177.36 as yields and the USD slid, printing a 4186.34 session high. The pullback has held a higher low at the 4169.70 pullback low, just above the 38.2% fib, with price back under the prior high into the late-Asia, pre-London-open window and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 4,169.70, 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4177.36 prior high and 4186.34 session high re-opens the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4169.70 pullback low and 4163.33 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 50% fib near 4166.8
Loss of the 4147.22 Asian low would erase the full Asia session rally
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
05:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 4,171.81
Higher lows from 4147.22, pullback below prior high.
Late Asia, gold cleared yesterday's NY prior high at 4177.36 and printed a 4186.34 session high as the USD slide on falling yields extended. It has since faded back under that level to the 38.2% fib of the 4147–4186 Asian leg, with the higher-low chain still intact above the 4163.33 swing low and RSI(14) cooled to ~58.
Support: 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close back above 4177.36 prior high restores the breakout and puts the 4186.34 session high and 4200 round number back in play
Loss of the 4163.33 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, marks a false break of the prior high and exposes the 4147.22 asian low
London open in under 2h will show whether price holds the Asian range upper half
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift the read via yields
Higher lows 4147 → 4163 → 4172; holding just under broken prior high.
Asia climbed from the 4147 Asia low through Thursday's 4177 prior high and spiked to a 4186 session high around Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech, as USD extended its slide on lower yields. Price has since settled into a 4172–4179 band at the 38.2% of the Asia rally, retesting the prior high from below. The higher-low chain keeps the micro-uptrend intact, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~64.
Support: 4,172.14, 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4172 swing low opens the 4163 higher low and the 50–61.8% of the Asia rally fib
Break of the Asia HL trendline and 4163 exposes the 4147 Asia low
Acceptance above the 4186 session high brings the 4200 round number into view
London open in ~2h and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia higher low 4163.33 and higher high 4186.34; retesting broken NY high.
Asia session built higher lows from the 4147.22 asian low and spiked through the 4177.36 prior high around the scheduled Warsh window. It printed a 4186.34 session high before an upper-wick rejection. Price is now retesting the prior high ahead of London open, RSI(14) near 63, with the USD softness in the digest underpinning the move.
Support: 4,177.36, 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Holding the 4177.36 prior high keeps the Asia breakout intact. A close back below it exposes the 50% asia rally fib near 4167.
An M15 close above the 4186.34 session high opens the 4200 round number, flagged in the digest as a prior rejection area.
A break of the rising trendline and the 4163.33 swing low ends the higher-low chain and reopens the 4147.22 asian low.
Further Warsh headlines and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
04:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 62 · price 4,176.04
Higher lows off the Asian low; breakout above prior high now under test.
Gold climbed off the Asian low at 4147.22 and spiked through the prior high at 4177.36 during Fed Chair Warsh's speech, extending the yield-driven rebound. The move printed a session high at 4186.34, then met rejection and slipped back to the 4177 area in late Asia trade, with RSI(14) cooling to about 62 and the swing low at 4163.33 still intact.
Support: 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,186.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 4177.36 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A close above the 4186.34 session high opens the path toward the 4200 psych level
A break of the 4163.33 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 4147.22 Asian low
Warsh speech is still live; an explicit October hike signal could reverse the post-speech spike
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC adds NY-session event risk
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 69 · price 4,182.96
HH/HL chain from Asian low; breakout above prior high.
Gold climbed off the 4147.22 Asian low in a higher-low sequence. The Warsh speech drove a 17-dollar bar through the 4177.36 prior high to a 4183.60 session high, with RSI(14) near 69. The 4163.33 swing low set during the speech marks the latest higher low on the rising support line.
Support: 4,177.36, 4,163.33, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,183.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Warsh is still speaking. A hawkish turn on October hike timing could reverse the spike quickly.
Failure to hold the 4177.36 prior high on a closing basis would mark the breakout as a false break.
An M15 close below the 4163.33 swing low breaks the rising support line and the higher-low chain from the Asian low.
The 4200 round number is the digest's cap area, an area to watch for rejection above the 4183.60 session high.
A move back under the 4147.22 Asian low would erase the whole Asia-session advance.
03:48 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back into the speech · RSI 61 · price 4,169.86
Higher lows from 4143.82 and 4147.22; Asia high swept, then faded.
Asia session pushed through the late-NY high at 4177.36 to an asian high at 4179.92, then rejected. Price faded to a speech low of 4163.33 as Warsh went live, near the 50% fib of the 4147–4180 Asian leg. The HL chain from the 4143.82 swing low and the 4147.22 asian low, built after Thursday's post-PPI spike, is intact.
Support: 4,163.33, 4,147.22, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,179.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Warsh speech is live: a signal that an October hike is in play could break the 4163.33 speech low and the 61.8% fib near 4159.70
An M15 close above the 4179.92 asian high clears the swept ny high and opens the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4147.22 asian low breaks the HL trendline and exposes the 4143.82 swing low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
03:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after high sweep · RSI 61 · price 4,169.27
Asian higher low at 4147 then rally into a sweep of the prior high, now pulling back.
Late in the Asia session, gold ran from the 4147.22 asian low through the late-NY prior high at 4177.36 to a 4179.92 session high, but that bar closed back below the level. The rejection has eased price to 4169, just above the 38.2% fib near 4167, with the breakout pt at 4162 below. The bid tracks the post-PPI retreat in yields and the USD.
Support: 4,162.24, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,179.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (now) could materially shift this read. A hawkish turn on hike odds is the main downside risk per the digest.
An M15 close above the 4179.92 session high invalidates the rejection read and opens the 4200 round number.
Failure to hold the 4162 breakout pt (50% fib ~4163.6) exposes the 4147.22 asian low.
London open in ~3.5h will test whether the Asian range of 4147–4180 holds.
Asia session broke above the late-NY high; price holding just under the session high.
The Asia leg ran from the 4147.22 asia low, a higher low on the trendline from the 4143.82 NY low, to a 4179.92 session high. That took out the 4177.36 ny high as yields and the USD kept retreating. Price is holding just under the high with RSI(14) near 65, and the 4168.51 late ny base sits below.
Support: 4,168.51, 4,163.57, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,179.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC; a hawkish framing could quickly unwind the Asia leg.
An M15 close back below the 4168.51 late ny base would turn the move above the ny high into a false break, with the fib 50% at 4163.57 the next level below.
Failure to hold the 4147.22 asia low breaks the higher-low trendline and the HH/HL chain.
Acceptance above the 4179.92 session high opens the path to the 4200 round number.
03:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 68 · price 4,175.54
Higher lows from 4147.22, break above the prior NY high.
The Asia session reversed off the 4147.22 Asian low with a chain of higher lows along the asia rally line. The 02:45 UTC bar broke the prior NY high at 4177.36 to a session high of 4179.92 as yields and the USD stayed heavy. Price is sitting just under the NY high with RSI(14) near 68, and the 4166 breakout pt is the first reference below.
Support: 4,166.15, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,177.36, 4,179.92, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone that rebuilds hike odds would pressure the breakout
An M15 close back below the 4166 breakout pt and the asia rally fib 50% near 4163.6 would mark a false break of the NY high
Acceptance above the 4179.92 session high opens the 4200 round number
A break of the asia rally line, then the 4147.22 Asian low, would negate the higher-low structure
02:46 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding within it · RSI 56 · price 4,163.61
Asia higher low off 4147, capped at the 61.8% retrace.
Late Asia session has recovered most of the slide from the 4177.36 prior high to the 4147.22 Asian low, with the 4166.15 session high stalling at the 61.8% retrace. This follows Thursday's yield-led rally, which faded the hot PPI print. Price is back above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 56, and rising lows from the 4143.82 NY low are intact ahead of Warsh at 03:30 UTC.
Support: 4,151.84, 4,147.22, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,166.15, 4,172.64, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone has scope to reprice hike odds
M15 close above the 4166.15 session high and 61.8% retrace opens the 4172.64 asia open, then the 4177.36 prior high
Loss of the 4151.84 asia shelf exposes the 4147.22 asian low
A break of the 4143.82 ny low breaks the rising lows and the rebound structure
02:32 UTC
Asian pullback stalling, rebound in progress · RSI 51 · price 4,161.59
Pullback from 4177 high, sweep below 4151.84 double low reversed at 4147.
Asia faded the late-NY session high at 4177.36, which printed on Thursday's yield-led USD retreat. A sweep of the 4151.84 double low to the 4147.22 Asian low was reversed within two bars, and price is now testing the 50% fib of the pullback near 4162 with RSI(14) at 51 and ATR around 540 pips.
Support: 4,151.84, 4,147.22
Resistance: 4,162.30, 4,172.64, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 4162.3 opens the 4172.64 asia open shelf and the 4177.36 session high
Slip back under the 4151.84 double low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low test of the 4147.22 asian low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks 03:30 UTC (~1h); a hike signal or a dovish tilt could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing near Asia lows · RSI 45 · price 4,156.69
Lower highs off the NY high; Asia range 4147.22–4172.64, price in lower third.
Gold absorbed the hot-PPI whipsaw to the 4130.37 ppi low as yields and the USD slid, then rallied to the 4176.45 ny high. It has since faded through the Asia session to a 4147.22 asia low, about a 61.8% fib retracement of the late-NY leg. Lower highs are capped by the asia trendline after a rejection at the 4160.79 swing high. Price sits just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,147.22, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,160.79, 4,172.64, 4,176.45
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, a high-impact risk that could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4160.79 swing high and the asia trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 4172.64 asia high and 4176.45 ny high above
Failure to hold the 4147.22 asia low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4143.82 ny low, then the 4130.37 ppi low
02:03 UTC
Short-term pullback inside a late-NY uptrend leg · RSI 38 · price 4,155.26
Asia lower highs and lower lows off the 4177 NY high, small bounce off the session low.
The Asia session has given back most of the late-NY rally to the 4177.36 NY high, which was built on falling yields and a softer USD after the hot PPI was faded. Price is printing lower highs, with a rejection at the 4160.79 bounce high and an asian low at 4147.22, and is now back near the 61.8% fib around 4156. RSI(14) is near 38 and price is below both EMAs. The 12:30 UTC PPI bar swept to the 4130.37 PPI low and was bought.
Support: 4,147.22, 4,144.00, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,160.79, 4,172.64, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
Failure to hold the 4147.22 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4144 swing low, then the 4130.37 ppi low
An M15 close above the 4160.79 bounce high and the Asia trendline negates the lower-high structure and puts the 4172.64 asian high and 4177.36 ny high back in play
Lower highs from 4172.64 asian high, testing session low near 61.8% fib.
Asia has erased most of the late-NY push to the 4177.36 ny high, the post-PPI leg that came on falling yields and a softer USD. Price has stepped down from the 4172.64 asian high, with a rejection at the 4160.79 lower high. It now sits just above the 4147.22 session low, near the 61.8% fib of the 4130–4177 move, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,147.22, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,160.79, 4,172.64, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, about 1h45m away. Hawkish remarks could reprice hike odds and materially shift this read.
An M15 close below the 4147.22 session low and the 4143.82 swing low puts the 4130.37 ppi low in view.
A close above the 4160.79 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and reopens 4172.64.
A hold at the 61.8% fib near 4148 keeps the pullback a retracement of the post-PPI leg.
01:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia session · RSI 40 · price 4,149.99
Lower highs from 4172.64 Asian high, 4151.84 floor broken.
Asia session has unwound Thursday's late NY push, with price stepping down from the 4172.64 Asian high. Supply capped the bounce at 4160.79, a lower high, and the 01:15 UTC bar broke the 4151.84 double low. Price now sits near 4150, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4130.37 PPI low to 4177.36 rally as USD softness meets pre-Warsh caution, with the ny swing low at 4143.82 next below.
Support: 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,151.84, 4,160.79, 4,172.64
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h): could materially shift this read and expand range well beyond ATR
An M15 close back above the 4151.84 broken low puts the range break in doubt
Failure to hold the 4143.82 ny swing low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 4130.37 ppi low
A close above the 4160.79 lower high breaks the Asian descending trendline and the lower-high chain; the asian high at 4172.64 sits above
Asia lower highs from 4172.64, base at 4151.84 tested twice.
Gold's late-NY push on falling yields and a softer USD peaked at the 4177.36 ny high. Asia has since bled back to a 4151.84 session low, tested twice near the 78.6% fib of the 4143.82–4177.36 leg. Price is now rotating around 4158, just under the short EMAs, with RSI(14) back near 51.
Support: 4,151.84, 4,143.82
Resistance: 4,160.79, 4,172.64, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks 03:30 UTC (~2h); a hawkish tilt could reprice hike odds and break the current base
M15 close below the 4151.84 session low ends the double-test hold and exposes the 4143.82 swing low
Reclaim of the 4160.79 minor high and ema20 reopens the 4172.64 asia high and 4177.36 ny high
Asia lower highs retracing late-NY rally, basing at asian low.
Gold's late-NY push to the 4177.36 NY high came as yields and USD retreated despite hot PPI. The Asia session has since given back most of it along a line of falling Asia highs, and price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the NY rally. The 4151.84 asian low has held twice, the 4157.90 lower high caps price, and price trades below both EMAs.
Support: 4,151.84, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,157.90, 4,162.70, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4151.84 asian low exposes the 4143.82 ny swing low, the base of the NY rally fib
Recovery above the 4157.90 lower high and the Asia highs line reopens the 4162.70 breakout point, with the 4177.36 ny high above
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 4130.37 ppi spike low is the reference below the ny swing low
Lower highs from the 4177 NY high; early Asia basing at 4151.84.
Gold extended Thursday's rebound on lower yields and a softer USD to a NY high at 4177.36, then slid from the reopen in a chain of lower highs to the 78.6% retracement of the NY leg. Early Asia has held the asian low at 4151.84 twice and is retesting the 4153–4158 shelf the late-NY breakout launched from, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 4,151.84, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,163.93, 4,168.66, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~3h), a high-impact event that could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the asian low at 4151.84 extends the lower-low sequence toward the ny low at 4143.82, then the post-PPI data low at 4130.37
A reclaim of the 4163.93 lower high breaks the Asia downswing and puts the data high at 4168.66 and the ny high at 4177.36 back in view
Asia lower highs unwinding late-NY breakout, back below 4162 prior cap.
Late-NY broke the 4162 prior cap and ran from the 4143.82 ny low to a 4177.36 day high on softer yields and USD, with AI-equity stress outweighing hot PPI. Early Asia has given most of it back with a string of lower highs. Price sits just under the 61.8% retrace of that late-NY leg, with the 4151.84 asian low the first marker below and RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 4,151.84, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,161.80, 4,168.66, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
Warsh speaks 03:30 UTC (~3h): high-impact event that could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4151.84 asian low extends the retest toward the 4143.82 ny low, with the 4130.37 data low from the PPI/retail spike below that
Reclaim of the 4162 prior cap restores the breakout read, with the 4168.66 post-data high and 4177.36 day high above
Gold's late-NY push on falling yields ran from the 4143.82 swing low to a 4177.36 NY high. The move stalled just above the $4,170 area and Asia has faded it in a steady sequence of lower highs, retracing roughly 75% of the late NY leg to a 4151.84 Asian low. RSI(14) sits near 40 and bar ranges are compressing ahead of Warsh at 03:30 UTC.
Support: 4,151.84, 4,143.82, 4,130.37
Resistance: 4,163.93, 4,170.42, 4,177.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4151.84 asian low exposes the 78.6% fib and the 4143.82 swing low
Recovery above the 4163.93 lower high and the 4170.42 asia open breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone puts the 4130.37 ppi low back in view
Retest of the 4177.36 ny high would bring the $4,170-4,177 failed-high zone back into focus
Back inside 4144–4169 post-PPI range after false break above.
Gold's late-NY push through the 4168.7 ppi high to a 4177.4 day high, on lower yields despite the hot PPI, has been fully faded into the Asia open. Price is back at 4155, below the 61.8% of the NY rally fib (4143.8–4177.4) and inside the post-PPI range, a false break with RSI(14) near 36. Range floor is the 4143.8 swing low.
Support: 4,143.80, 4,130.40
Resistance: 4,168.70, 4,177.40
What it said to watch
Holding below the 4168.7 ppi high keeps the false break read; a reclaim reopens the 4177.4 day high
Loss of the 4143.8 swing low exposes the 4130.4 ppi low from the 12:30 UTC data spike
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read