Lower highs from 4696.74, latest low 4235.03, last bar reclaims EMA(50).
Gold's four-month advance from 3959.13 peaked at 4696.74 and has since traced a chain of lower highs — 4631, 4510, 4473, 4402 — into a 4235.03 low, the correction accelerating after the FOMC delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% with the current-year dot lifted to 4.1%. The last session printed a wide-range bullish reversal off 4257.51 to close 4361.28, back above the EMA(50) at ~4336 but still under the flattening EMA(20) near 4369. The 4327/4336 area is the 50% retracement of the 3959–4696 swing and has capped repeatedly this week, so acceptance above it is the first structural change of note; RSI(14) near 46 sits mid-range with no daily oversold reading.
Support: 4,336.29, 4,275.00, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,402.51, 4,473.09
What it said to watch
Daily close above 4402.51 prior high would break the lower-high sequence off 4696.74
Loss of the 4275 pivot on a daily close reopens the 4235.03 month low and the 61.8% retracement
Sustained trade below the ema50 at 4336 keeps the corrective structure intact
S&P Global PMIs on 23 Sep and Fed-speak on the 'one more hike' question are the main catalysts into next week
11:59 UTC
Correction inside a broader uptrend, lower highs since late August · RSI 42 · price 4,340.74
Descending channel off the 4696 aug peak; chain of lower highs and lower lows, price pivoting on ema50.
After basing near 3959 in late June and rallying through August to the 4696 aug peak, gold has spent three-and-a-half weeks in a descending channel, with every bounce capped lower — 4450 prior high, then the 4368 swing high. This week's hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and 10y yields at 5% drove the flush to the 4235 month low, but the last session closed 76 dollars off that low at 4340.74, back on top of ema50 while still under a falling EMA(20) near 4367. RSI(14) at 42 has cycled down without reaching oversold, consistent with correction rather than trend break.
Support: 4,335.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,368.10, 4,450.00
What it said to watch
Daily close below 4235 month low confirms another lower low and voids the channel-base hold
Daily close above the 4368 swing high breaks the four-week lower-high chain
Loss of ema50 around 4335 puts 4291 swing low back in play
Today's US claims / Philly Fed cluster and Friday's Fed speakers can reset the yield-driven read
11:58 UTC
Corrective downtrend within a larger recovery · RSI 42 · price 4,340.74
Lower highs since the late-Aug 4696 peak; base holding above the 4235 monthly low.
The four-month D1 picture is two-phase: the June slide to 3959 gave way to a six-week recovery that topped at 4696 in late August, and since then price has carved a clean chain of lower highs. The hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and the 10y above 5% drove last week's break to the 4235 monthly low, with the 4368 prior high capping every rebound attempt this week; the latest session closed at 4340.74 after bouncing off 4257, still beneath EMA(20) near 4367 and a flattening EMA(50) around 4345. RSI(14) at 42 has cycled lower without reaching oversold, leaving the 4275 pivot as the hinge of the post-FOMC band.
Support: 4,275.00, 4,235.00, 4,076.00
Resistance: 4,368.00, 4,441.00
What it said to watch
A daily close below the 4235 monthly low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 4076 prior base back in view
Loss of the 4275 pivot re-opens the 4235 area; holding it keeps this week's basing intact
A daily close above the 4368 prior high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4441 swing high the next structural reference
Today's US claims / Philly Fed cluster and next week's S&P Global PMIs are the near-term drivers of this read