21:08 UTC
Broader uptrend, four-week corrective phase · RSI 47 · price 4,378.16
Lower highs since the 4697 peak, base holding above 4235.
The advance off the 3959 base peaked at 4696.74 and has since traced a five-week sequence of lower highs (4511, 4443, 4403), with the hawkish Fed hike and the 10-year back at 5% driving the flush to a one-month low at 4235.03. Two sessions of recovery as yields and crude eased reclaimed the 4320 area where the 100-day SMA sits, leaving the last close at 4378.16 — above EMA(50) but still under EMA(20) and under the 4400 psych gate. RSI(14) near 46 is mid-range, consistent with correction inside a higher-timeframe uptrend rather than trend reversal.
Support: 4,320.00, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,510.88, 4,696.74
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4400 psych gate would put the 4510.88 prior high back in play
- Failure to hold the 4320 100d sma re-exposes the 4235 post-fed low and the multi-week rising base
- A close below the 4235 post-fed low breaks the higher-low chain and invalidates the corrective read
- S&P Global US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC is the week's main data risk for this structure