21:08 UTC
Broad uptrend, five-week corrective downtrend in force · RSI 50 · price 4,368.29
Lower highs from 4697 into a 4235 base, price back at ema20.
The June–August advance off 3959 peaked at the 4697 cycle high five weeks ago, and price has since traced a clean descending channel of lower highs and lower lows into a 4235 six-week low set last week — the leg lower accelerated after the Fed's 25bp hike and the lift in the dot plot. The last two sessions rebounded roughly 140 dollars off that low and closed 4368.29, sitting on the 20-day EMA with the ema50 at 4345 now just beneath as the nearest shelf. RSI(14) is neutral at 50 after cycling out of the low-40s, so the weekly cadence is corrective consolidation rather than trend resumption: the 4235–4400 band has contained the last eight sessions.
Support: 4,345.00, 4,283.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,511.00, 4,697.00
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4400 prior high breaks the chain of lower highs and opens the 4511 swing high
- Failure to hold 4345 (ema50) and then the 4283 swing low puts the 4235 six-week low back in play
- A close below 4235 confirms a fresh lower low and extends the channel
- S&P Global flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep (Services f/c 56.0, Manufacturing f/c 53.5) is the week's only top-tier print and can materially shift this read