21:10 UTC
Five-week correction inside a higher-level uptrend · RSI 51 · price 4,368.91
Lower highs since 4696, 4235 base holding, price pinned at EMA cluster.
The advance off the 3959 base topped at the 4696 cycle high in late August, and the tape since has been a five-week chain of lower highs — 4510, 4473, then a twice-rejected 4400 range cap. Last week's Fed hike drove the flush to the 4235 six-week low, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the whole up-leg and has held, with price now back at the 4345 EMA(50) and RSI(14) flat near 51. Recent weekly cadence has been rejection into 4400 followed by a probe of the 4290s swing low, leaving a 4235–4400 band that contains everything since the peak.
Support: 4,345.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,510.00, 4,696.00
What it said to watch
- A daily close above 4400 range cap breaks the lower-high chain and re-opens 4473–4510 prior high
- Failure to hold 4235 six-week low confirms a lower low beneath the 61.8% retracement
- Loss of the 4345 ema50 on a closing basis turns the current base into the upper half of a wider range
- US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr are the immediate event risk to this range read