21:08 UTC
Downtrend stalling, corrective bounce underway · RSI 55 · price 4,378.16
Lower highs from 4680 intact, but higher lows since the 4235 base.
The three-week sequence of lower highs from 4680 through 4510 and 4431 is still the dominant structure, but the 4235 post-Fed low printed alongside the earlier 4253/4261 lows has built a double-bottom base and price has since carved higher lows at 4264, 4305 and 4340. The recovery through the 100d sma near 4320 came as Treasury yields eased off 5% and the oil rally cooled, lifting bullion back above both the EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time in two weeks. ATR(14) near 45 dollars is still elevated by the FOMC spike bar, and 4400 — the round number that capped the last four attempts — is the immediate gate.
Support: 4,340.00, 4,320.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,431.00, 4,510.00
What it said to watch
- A sustained H4 close above 4400 would put the 4431 prior high and the lower-high trendline in play
- Loss of the 4340 higher low re-exposes the 100d sma at 4320 and the 4235 post-fed low
- S&P Global US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's main data event and can reset this range read
- A decisive US 10-year break above 5% has capped every bounce in this window