XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at the weekly low · RSI 53 · price 4,130.88
Lower highs compressing into a flat 4105–4112 floor.
Lower highs run from Monday's London-session peak at 4190, through Tuesday's NY spike to the 4155 tue high, to Wednesday's repeated cap at the 4142 wed high. Below, the 4111.7 tue low and the 4105 weekly low have held for two sessions. Late in Wednesday's NY session price undercut the weekly low and snapped back into the 4130s as oil eased on the Iran-cargo news, a false break that leaves price above the ema20 near 4127 and just under EMA(50) near 4132, with RSI(14) near 53 and price capped below the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-to-Wednesday decline near 4138.
Support: 4,111.70, 4,105.00
Resistance: 4,142.20, 4,168.40
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4142 wed high and the lower-high line breaks the descending sequence, with the 4155 tue high next and the 4168 weekly open beyond it
Failure to hold the ema20 near 4127 puts the 4111.7 tue low back in focus
A close below the 4105 weekly low turns the false break into a range break, exposing the 4070 monthly floor
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs plus UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs since Monday's 4190 week high; Wednesday range 4105–4142 with a false break at the lows.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open week high at 4190. The slide accelerated into NY hours as oil and yields firmed, and Tuesday's NY spike to the 4155 tuesday high faded. Late in Wednesday's NY session, a dip to a 4105 week low below the 4106 Asian low and the 4112 tuesday low reversed sharply on oil-easing cargo headlines, a false break that lifted price back above the ema20 near 4128 and the EMA(50) to press the 4142 wed high, which sits just above the 38.2% fib of the Monday-high-to-week-low move. RSI(14) has recovered to ~59, its highest reading since Monday's slide began.
Support: 4,128.00, 4,111.70, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,142.17, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4142 wed high puts the 4148 fib 50% and the 4155 tuesday high in play
Failure back below the ema20 near 4128 re-exposes the 4112 tuesday low and the 4105 week low
Recovery of the 4168 weekly open would break the lower-high sequence from Monday
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read; oil and Iran headlines remain the main driver
Lower highs since Monday, lows compressing; falling wedge testing its top.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open peak at 4190. The main legs lower came during NY hours on Monday, and Tuesday's housing-data spike to the 4155 tue high faded fully. Lows are compressing into a falling wedge, from the 4111.7 tue low to the 4105 week low. Late in Wednesday's NY session that week low was swept and reclaimed on the oil-relief cargo headline, lifting price back above EMA(20) at ~4128 and EMA(50). Price is now pressing the day high near 4142 and the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) back at 57 and the bar sitting just above the 38.2% retracement of the Mon–Wed decline.
Support: 4,128.00, 4,111.68, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,142.17, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4142 day high and the lower-highs line breaks the wedge top; the 50% retracement near 4148 and the 4155 tue high come next
Reclaiming the 4168 week open would neutralise this week's decline
A slip back below the ema20 near 4128 returns focus to the 4105 week low and the wedge base
A close below the 4105 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the context's 4100/4070 range floor
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read; oil and Iran headlines remain the swing driver
20:04 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, basing near weekly low · RSI 57 · price 4,134.88
Lower highs from 4190; Wednesday range 4105–4142 after reclaimed break.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4190 peak at Monday's London open. The main leg down came in Monday's NY session as WTI and Treasury yields firmed, and Tuesday's NY spike to 4155 on the housing misses faded fully. Wednesday has held a 4105–4142 range: a late-NY break of the prior 4106 low to a new weekly low at 4104.98 was reclaimed within the hour as oil eased on the US cargo headlines, leaving price just above the EMA(20) near 4127 and pressing the lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) near 57 is below the range top at 4142 and the 38.2% retracement of the Mon–Wed decline near 4138.
Support: 4,127.00, 4,104.98
Resistance: 4,141.90, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4142 range top and the lower-highs trendline opens the 4155 Tue high, then the 4168 weekly open
Loss of the ema20 near 4127 puts price back into the lower half of the range
Failure to hold the 4105 weekly low after the false break would confirm a fresh lower-low
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4190; Wednesday range 4106–4141 rejected from the top.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190 peak. The dominant leg came in Monday's NY session from above the 4168 weekly open, and Tuesday's oil-driven NY spike to 4155 faded within hours. Wednesday's bounce off the 4106 weekly low stalled four times near 4141, just above the 38.2% of the weekly drop, before a late-NY rejection put price back below EMA20 (4124.6) and EMA50 (4131.5). Price now sits on the 4111.7 Tuesday low with RSI(14) at 42, as the firmer oil-to-yields chain keeps rallies capped.
Support: 4,111.70, 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,124.60, 4,141.10, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4106 weekly low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 round number, with the 4070 monthly range floor beyond
Recovery above the 4141 Wednesday high and the lower highs trendline breaks the downtrend read, exposing the 4155 Tuesday spike high
Hourly closes back above EMA20 near 4124.6 would mark the late-NY rejection as a failed push
Thu 12:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Fri 13:45 UTC flash PMIs could materially shift this read
US-Iran and oil headlines have driven the week's intraday spikes; WTI near $99 is the swing factor for yields
Lower highs since Friday; base at 4106–4112, capped at 4142.
Gold has printed a run of lower highs since Friday's 4198.77 NY-session peak. Monday's London-open high came in at 4190.31, Tuesday's high at 4155.49 came on a US-Iran headline spike that faded within the hour, and the week low at 4106.24 printed in Wednesday's Asia session. Wednesday's London session lifted price off the 4111.7 base and back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), but the Wed high at 4141.9 sits on the 38.2% retracement and the lower-highs trendline, which has capped NY hours so far. RSI(14) near 59 is the firmest reading of the week, while firm yields and ~90% December hike pricing have kept rallies contained.
Support: 4,128.00, 4,111.70, 4,106.24
Resistance: 4,141.90, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4141.9 Wed high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 4155.49 Tue high, then the 4168.37 weekly open
A drop back below EMA(20) near 4128 returns price to the 4111.7 base; failure there exposes the 4106.24 week low
Thu 12:30 UTC Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs could materially shift this read
A US-Iran or oil headline drove Tuesday's spike; a repeat could test the 38.2% retracement and trendline cap
Lower highs since Monday; rising lows under a 4141.9 cap.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-session peak at 4190.31. Tuesday's NY spike to the 4155.49 tue high on US-Iran headlines faded, and firmer yields and oil pushed price to a 4106.24 week low in Wednesday's Asia session. Wednesday's London rebound stalled at the 4141.9 wed high, near the 38.2% retracement of the weekly drop, and NY hours have capped it there three times; price holds above EMA(20) at ~4126.6 and sits just under EMA(50) near 4132. RSI(14) bottomed near 43 at Wednesday's lower price low against roughly 33 at the tue low, a bullish divergence inside the downtrend.
Support: 4,126.60, 4,111.68, 4,106.24
Resistance: 4,141.90, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4141.9 wed high clears the lower-highs trendline and breaks the sequence of lower highs, putting the 4155.49 tue high and the 4168.37 weekly open in view
Loss of ema20 near 4126.6 and the rising lows line, then a break of the 4111.68 tue low, would expose the 4106.24 week low and void the divergence
Thu 12:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Fri PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines drove Tuesday's spike and fade; a repeat would test the 4141.9 cap
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 54 · price 4,131.55
Lower highs from 4190, basing 4106–4142.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open peak at 4190.31. The NY session drove the break below 4150, and Tuesday's US-Iran headline spike to 4155.49 faded back into a 4106–4142 base as yields and oil kept rallies capped. Wednesday's Asia week low at 4106.24 undercut the tue-wed lows by only a few dollars while RSI(14) set a higher low near 40, and the London bounce stalled at the wed high of 4141.90, near the 38.2% retrace of the week slide and on the lower-high line, leaving price pinned at EMA(50) ~4132 with the ema20 at 4126 below.
Support: 4,125.90, 4,106.24
Resistance: 4,141.90, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the wed high 4141.90 breaks the lower-high line and opens the tue high at 4155.49
A retake of the tue high 4155.49 brings the weekly open at 4168.37 back into view
H1 close below the ema20 near 4126 returns focus to the tue-wed lows ~4111; failure there confirms a lower-low below the week low 4106.24
Thu 12:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs could materially shift this read; oil and US-Iran headlines drove Tuesday's spike
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum slowing into a base · RSI 55 · price 4,129.24
Lower highs since Monday; base forming 4106–4112.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190 week high. Monday's slide came in the NY session, and Tuesday's Iran-diplomacy spike to the 4155 Tuesday high faded as oil and yields stayed firm. Wednesday's Asia-session week low at 4106 held, and London lifted price to a 4142 day high, just above the 38.2% fib retrace of the week's drop, where supply capped it at the lower-highs trendline. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 4125 but below EMA(50) around 4132, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s after cycling up from the 40s.
Support: 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,141.90, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4142 day high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 4155 Tuesday high in play; clearing that breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4168 week open
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 4125 returns price to the 4106 week low; a break there exposes the 4100 round number
Meta Q3 tonight, Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri PMIs could materially shift this read via yields
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London high at 4190.31. Tuesday's NY spike on US-Iran relief stalled at 4155.49 (tue high), and today's London bounce off the 4106-4112 repeat lows hit rejection at the 4141.90 session high, near the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop, as firm oil and yields kept Fed-hike pricing alive. Price now sits between EMA(20) at 4125 and EMA(50) at 4132 with RSI(14) near 51, consolidating below the 4168 weekly open.
Support: 4,125.20, 4,111.70, 4,106.24
Resistance: 4,132.30, 4,141.90, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4141.90 session high and the lower-highs line breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4155.49 tue high back in play
H1 closes back below EMA(20) at 4125 return focus to the 4111 repeat lows; rejection under EMA(50) at 4132 keeps the downtrend read intact
Failure to hold the 4106.24 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the $4,070 monthly range floor
Meta earnings later today and Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims could move yields and materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday, base at 4106-4112 broken higher.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open high at 4190.31, as oil-driven inflation fears and firm yields kept Fed-hike bets alive. Tuesday's US-Iran relief spike to the 4155.49 Tuesday high faded within the NY session. Asia and London then tested 4106-4112 three times into the 4106.24 week low, forming a tentative triple bottom. The 11:00 UTC London push broke the lower-highs line and the 4129 neckline, stalled at the 4141.90 session high near the 38.2% Mon-Wed fib, and pulled back to the EMA(20) around 4124-4125 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) recovering to ~57.
Support: 4,124.50, 4,106.24
Resistance: 4,141.90, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 4125 returns price to the 4106-4130 base and undoes the breakout
Failure to hold the 4106.24 week low confirms a lower low, with the digest's 4070 monthly range floor next
Close above the 4141.90 session high and the 50% Mon-Wed fib at 4148 opens the path to the 4155.49 Tuesday high, then the 4168.37 weekly open
Meta earnings tonight, Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri PMIs/UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
12:04 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, short-term momentum turning up · RSI 60 · price 4,140.97
Lower highs and lows; Wednesday range broken higher.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's NY session, sliding from the 4190.31 week high to a 4106.24 week low in Wednesday's Asia session as oil and US yields firmed. Tuesday's US-Iran headline spike to the 4155.49 Tue high faded inside the same NY session. London has now lifted price out of Wednesday's 4106–4132 range, through the lower-high trendline and above EMA(20) near 4125 and EMA(50) near 4133, testing the 38.2% fib at 4138, while RSI(14) near 60 confirms a bullish divergence against the week low.
Support: 4,131.80, 4,125.00, 4,106.24
Resistance: 4,155.49, 4,168.37, 4,190.31
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4131.8 range top and EMA(50) returns price to Wednesday's range
Close above the 4155.49 Tue high, beyond the 50% fib at 4148, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4168.37 weekly open in view
Failure to hold the 4106.24 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the $4,070 range floor
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines moving WTI remain the main intraday driver of spikes like Tuesday's
Lower highs since Monday; tight 4106–4132 range Wednesday.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-session peak at 4190, failing to reclaim the 4168 weekly open. The main legs lower came during NY hours Monday and in Tuesday's Asia session as oil-driven inflation fears and Fed hike pricing weighed, and Tuesday's NY spike to 4155 (tue spike) on US-Iran headlines faded within two bars. Wednesday has compressed between the 4106 week low and the 4132 wed high, with price just above EMA(20) near 4123, below EMA(50) near 4131, and RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 4,111.70, 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,131.80, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close above the wed high and lower-highs trendline near 4132 breaks the sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 4138, then the 4155 tue spike
Failure to hold the Tuesday low at 4111.7 and the 4106 week low exposes the 4100 round number
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
US-Iran or oil headlines have already driven a 40-point intraday swing this week
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 4190 high; tight range above 4100.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London-open peak at 4190. Monday's NY session broke below 4140, and Tuesday's Asia session pressed it to the 4111.7 Tuesday low as oil-fed hike fears weighed. A US-Iran diplomacy headline lifted price to the 4155 Tuesday high during NY hours, near the 61.8% of the week's slide, but that spike was rejected within the hour and price fell back under the EMA50. Wednesday's Asia dip pierced the Tuesday low to a 4106 week low, and price has since compressed into a 4106–4131 consolidation, hugging the EMA20 at 4121 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,121.00, 4,131.60, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4106 week low and the 4100 round number extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the EMA50 near 4131.6 and the lower-highs trendline (~4134) breaks the consolidation; the 4155 Tuesday high near the 61.8% fib is the next reference
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims, Fri PMIs and US-Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; tight range just above the weekly low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London high at 4190. Tuesday's NY spike to 4155 on US-Iran diplomacy headlines met rejection within hours as oil-fed Fed-hike fears returned. Wednesday's Asia session set a new weekly low at 4106, and price has since compressed into a 4110–4130 range, pinned at EMA(20) near 4121 and held under the ema50 cap near 4132. RSI(14) is holding in the mid-40s rather than pressing lower, so downside momentum has flattened just above the 4100 round number.
Support: 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,132.00, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
Hourly acceptance below the 4106 weekly low and the 4100 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema50 cap at 4132 and the lower-highs trendline brings the 38.2% fib of the week's decline (~4138) and the Tue high at 4155 into view
A move back through the Tue high and the 4168 weekly open would break this week's lower-high structure
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims, Fri PMIs and US-Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high; tight range just above 4100.
Gold has slipped from the 4168.37 weekly open and printed lower highs since Monday's London-session high at 4190.31. The main legs lower came during NY hours Monday and through Tuesday's Asia and London sessions, as oil-fed Fed-hike pricing kept pressure on. Tuesday's NY spike to 4155.49 (tue high) on US-Iran headlines stalled just shy of the 61.8% retracement and faded. Since then price has compressed between the 4106.24 week low printed in Wednesday's Asian session and the 4131.77 lower high, sitting on EMA(20) near 4121.7 with RSI(14) flat around 47 and the 4100 round number just below.
Support: 4,121.70, 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,131.77, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4106.24 week low and acceptance under the 4100 round number would extend the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4131.77 lower high breaks the compression; the 4155.49 tue high and the lower-highs trendline sit above
Loss of EMA(20) at 4121.7 returns price to the base of the range
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs, plus US-Iran/WTI headlines, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's London-open high.
Gold has stepped lower every session since Monday's London-open high at 4190.31, losing the 4168.37 weekly open as WTI near $99 and the 10y around 5.14% kept December hike pricing intact. Tuesday's NY spike to 4155.49, near the 61.8% of the Monday-to-Wednesday decline, met rejection and fully faded. Wednesday's Asia session printed a week low at 4106.24, and price now sits on Tuesday's 4111.7 low, below EMA(20) near 4121 and EMA(50) near 4131. RSI(14) around 40 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,120.90, 4,131.77, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance below the 4106.24 week low and the 4100 range floor extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of EMA20 and a close above the 4131.8 lower high would break the lower-highs pattern; the lower-highs trendline sits near 4138
Tue NY high at 4155.49 marks the upper boundary of the Monday-to-Wednesday decline retracement
Thursday's jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and Friday's PMIs, plus US-Iran/oil headlines, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, Asia compressing near the week low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's early-London top at 4190, and the weekly open at 4168 now sits well overhead. Each bounce has stalled under the descending trendline. Tuesday's NY spike to the tue high at 4155 came on US-Iran headlines that knocked oil lower. The rejection was fully unwound within three bars, and the Asia session then printed a fresh week low at 4106 as oil firmed. Price is pinned just under ema20 near 4122, with RSI(14) in the low 40s and a tight 4106–4129 Asian range sitting above the tue low and the 4100 psych level.
Support: 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,122.30, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance below the 4106 week low and the 4100 psych level extends the lower-low sequence. The digest flags long-liquidation risk below 4100.
A sustained hold above the 4111 tue low keeps the Asian range intact.
A reclaim of ema20 and the descending trendline exposes the tue high at 4155, inside the 50–61.8% zone of the Monday high to Wednesday low fib.
A close back above the 4168 weekly open invalidates the week's downtrend read.
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims, plus Fri PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, could materially shift this read. Iran/oil headlines remain the main intraday driver.
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday's 4198.77 peak.
Gold has stepped lower since Friday's 4198.77 peak. Monday's London-open high at 4190.31 gave way to NY-session selling and a fresh weekly low at 4106.24 in Asia today, well under the 4168.37 weekly open. Tuesday's NY spike to 4155.49 (tue high) on US-Iran headlines met rejection between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the decline and faded back under the ema20 near 4120.50, with oil-driven Fed-hike pricing keeping gold heavy. RSI(14) near 38 holds below the midline without reaching oversold, and price has been capped by the lower-highs line all week.
Support: 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,120.50, 4,155.49, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4106.24 weekly low, then acceptance under the 4100 round number, extends the lower-low sequence. The digest flags long-liquidation risk below that level.
Price is capped by the ema20 near 4120.50 so far. Repeated H1 closes back above it would ease near-term pressure toward the tue low / tue high band.
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4155.49 tue high breaks the lower-high structure. A reclaim of the 4168.37 weekly open would then come into focus.
Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:45 UTC S&P PMIs could materially shift this read. US-Iran / oil headlines remain a constant intraday swing factor.
Lower highs from 4190.31; tight 4106–4132 range for 16 bars.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's 4190.31 London peak. The main leg lower came into Monday's NY session and extended to the 4111.7 Tue low, and the Tuesday NY spike to the 4155.49 tue high on US-Iran deal headlines met rejection and faded as oil stayed elevated. Today's Asia session set a fresh 4106.24 week low, with price capped just below the ema20 near 4123, RSI(14) around 43 and the descending lower-highs trendline intact.
Support: 4,111.70, 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,123.00, 4,138.35, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 near 4123 and the 4131.77 Asia high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4106.24 week low and the tue low at 4111.7 exposes the 4100 round number
Reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 4138 and the lower-highs trendline would challenge the downtrend; the tue high at 4155.49 sits above
US-Iran/Hormuz headlines and WTI near $99 are driving the intraday swings; Thu 12:30 UTC Jobless Claims is the next scheduled risk
Lower highs and lower lows from 4198.77; rallies fading below ema20.
Gold has printed lower highs since Friday's 4198.77 NY-session peak. Monday's slide started in London and extended through NY, taking price well below the weekly open at 4168.4, and Tuesday's Iran-report spike to the tue high at 4155.5 was rejected near the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Today's Asia session made a fresh week low at 4106.2 before price settled back near 4118, below ema20 (~4123), with RSI(14) in the mid-40s as oil-driven Fed-hike risk caps rebounds despite a softer USD.
Support: 4,106.20, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,123.00, 4,155.50, 4,168.40
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above ema20 near 4123 and the lower-highs trendline (~4141) would ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the week low at 4106.2 exposes the 4100 round number
Tue high at 4155.5 near the 50% fib of the week decline separates a corrective bounce from a recovery toward the weekly open at 4168.4
Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday's S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines and WTI near $99 have driven the sharpest H1 swings this week
Lower highs and lower lows; price pinned under ema20 near the week low.
Monday's London high at 4190.31 capped price below Friday's 4198.77 peak, and the week's decline from the 4168.37 weekly open has run through Monday NY and Tuesday London, where the Tue low printed at 4111.68. Tuesday's NY spike to the 4155.49 Tue high on US-Iran deal reports faded back under ema20 as crude stayed elevated and Fed-hike pricing held. Asia set a fresh week low at 4106.24, but the bar closed back above the Tue low, and RSI(14) near 44 sits above Tuesday's ~34 reading.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,106.24, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,136.30, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below 4106.24 week low confirms a lower-low and voids the false break; below that, the 4100 round number is the next reference
Close back above ema20 and ema50 (4136, near the 38.2% of the week decline) tests the lower-high trendline around 4142
Close above the 4155.49 Tue high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts price back over the 4150 range floor
Thu jobless claims (f/c 200K), Fri PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, plus US-Iran and oil headlines, could materially shift this read
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's London high at 4190.31. It slid through the 4168.37 weekly open, and the US-Iran-driven NY spike on Tuesday to the 4155.49 swing high was rejected between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the Mon high-Tue low fib as oil stayed elevated. Wednesday's Asian session added another lower high at 4131.77. Price is now back under the ema20 near 4124.80 with RSI(14) near 39, testing the 4111.68 week low that held twice in Tuesday's London session.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,099.95
Resistance: 4,124.80, 4,131.77, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4111.68 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4099.95 prior low from last Thursday's Asian session
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 4131.77 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
4155.49 swing high sits just above the former $4,150 range floor; a close above it invalidates the lower-high line
Thu 12:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Fri 13:45 UTC PMIs / 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read, alongside US-Iran and oil headlines
Gold opened the week at 4168 and peaked at 4190 into the London open on Monday. It then slid through London and NY hours below the 4150 range floor as oil-driven inflation fears and firm yields weighed. Tuesday's NY spike to 4155 on US-Iran headlines met rejection back under the range floor, between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the Mon-Tue drop. Price has since faded back toward the 4111.68 Tuesday low, capped by ema20 near 4124, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,124.00, 4,150.00, 4,168.37
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4111.68 tuesday low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 4100 round number
Reclaim of ema20 near 4124 and then the 4150 range floor would invalidate the range break read, with the weekly open at 4168 above
A break of the lower-high trendline from Monday's 4190 high, now near 4145, would end the sequence of lower highs
Jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC, plus US-Iran/oil headlines, could materially shift this read