21:07 UTC
Downtrend from late-August high, now ranging · RSI 40 · price 4,112.71
Lower highs since 4696.74; three-week 4066–4227 range.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 25 Aug peak at 4696.74, at 4399 mid-September and 4227 in early October. The 28 Sep breakdown pushed price into a three-week range between the range floor at 4066 and the range top at 4227, which also sits on the 23.6% level of the decline fib. Price is in the lower half of that range, below the ema20 (~4160) and a falling EMA(50), with hot core PPI and oil-driven Fed-hike pricing capping each weekly rebound.
Support: 4,019.20
Resistance: 4,160.00, 4,227.28, 4,307.30
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4066 range floor marks a range break and exposes the aug low at 4019, then the june low near 3942
- Recapture of the ema20 near 4160 would return price to the middle of the range
- Close above the 4227 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2 fib at 4307 in view
- Fri S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, then next week's FOMC, could materially shift hike pricing and this read