21:07 UTC
Downtrend since late-August peak, now breaking lower · RSI 37 · price 4,037.74
Lower highs from 4696.74; October range broken to the downside.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 25 August peak at 4696.74. The 28 September drop opened a four-week October range between the 4066.52 range floor and the 4227.28 range top. Yesterday's close at 4037.74 broke that floor to a ten-week low as oil-driven Fed-hike fears overrode lower yields, and price now sits below both EMA(20) and a rolling-over EMA(50), past the 78.6% retracement of the June–August rally.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,066.52, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 4066.52 range floor would mark the break as a false break
- Failure to hold the 4000 psych level exposes the 3942.64 june low
- Reclaim of the 4227.28 range top and the lower-highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read
- Fri S&P Global PMIs and UoM 1-yr inflation expectations, then next week's FOMC, could materially shift this read