21:07 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since late August · RSI 32 · price 3,997.08
LH/LL sequence from 4696.74 peak; October range broken lower.
Downtrend since the 25 Aug peak at 4696.74, with a lower-high/lower-low chain and price below a falling EMA(50), now near 4212, since late September. This week's roughly 4% slide broke the October 4066–4227 range through the broken low at 4066.52 to a 3975.70 swing low, unwinding the whole August rally as an oil-driven rise in Fed hike pricing outweighed falling Treasury yields. Price closed just under the 4000 psych level and is pressing the June low zone around 3942–3960, with RSI near 32 approaching oversold and ATR around $73.
Support: 3,975.70, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,066.52
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 3975.70 swing low and the 3942.64 june low extends the lower-low chain into levels last seen before the June–July base
- Recovery back above 4000 psych and the broken low at 4066.52 would mark this week's range break as a false break
- Close above the falling trendline from the August peak and ema20, together near 4130–4150, would challenge the downtrend read
- RSI(14) below 30 would put the Aug–Oct decline into oversold territory for the first time in this window
- Fed decision Wed Oct 28, 18:00 UTC: December hike pricing near 78% and WTI around $100 could materially shift this read