21:08 UTC
Downtrend since late-August peak, below falling EMA(50) · RSI 34 · price 3,993.78
Lower highs and lower lows; early-October range broken to the downside.
Gold has been in a two-month downtrend since the 25 Aug peak at 4696.74, with a lower-high trendline running through 4510, 4399 and 4217 and price below a falling EMA(50) near 4189. Last week the 4070 range floor of the early-October range gave way as WTI above $100 revived December-hike pricing, and price slid to a 3-month low at 3975.70. Monday's session closed just under the 4000 psych level, with RSI near 34: soft, but not yet oversold.
Support: 3,975.70, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,070.00, 4,189.00
What it said to watch
- Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a 'no urgency' tone that cuts December hike odds matters more than a priced-in hawkish hold
- Daily close back above the 4070 range floor would turn the break into a false break
- Failure to hold the 3-month low at 3975.70 extends the lower-low chain toward the july low at 3942.64
- Recovery stalling below the 4189 ema50 or the lower-high trendline near 4110 keeps the downtrend structure intact; the 38.2% retracement of the Aug-Oct decline sits near 4251