Lower highs since 4510.88; rebound capped at 4400 range top.
Lower highs have run from the 4510.88 early-month peak. The rebound from the 4235 six-week low stalled at the 4400 range top, and supply capped each retest at 4371-4383. Hot US PMIs and 10y yields above 5.1% pushed gold back below the 4300 round number, through the 61.8% of the rebound fib, and it is now probing the 4275 swing low near the 78.6% level. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to about 3,050 pips from the 4,000+ seen earlier in the window.
Support: 4,275.00, 4,254.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,350.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 4275 swing low exposes the 4254 prior low and then the 4235 6-week low.
A recovery above the 4300 round number, then the 4350 prior pivot, would return price to the middle of the range.
An H4 close above the 4400 range top and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read.
Thursday's Williams remarks, Jobless Claims (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson, plus the Trump-Xi meeting, could materially shift this read via yields.
Lower highs under a falling trendline; price back in lower half of 4235–4400 range.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 4510 early-month peak. Last week's rebound from the 6-week low at 4235 stalled at the 4400 range top and the falling trendline. Hot US PMIs lifted the USD today and dragged price back below the 4300 psych level, through the 61.8% rebound fib, with the 4371 lower high now capping. ATR(14) near 32 is well below the late-August expansion bars, so the 4235–4400 range is compressing while price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 4,253.74, 4,235.03, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,371.23, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4253.74 swing low and 4235 6-week low confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend toward the 4200 round number
Recovery back above the 4300 psych level would put price back inside the rebound fib zone
A break above the 4371 lower high and the falling trendline near 4378 would end the lower-high sequence and reopen the 4400 range top
Thu Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), Williams/Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak and the Trump–Xi meeting could materially shift this read
13:27 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat floor · RSI 38 · price 4,304.93
Lower highs from 4510 capping a 4235–4400 range; lows holding 4235–4291.
Gold has carved a sequence of lower highs from the 4510 early-month peak down to 4376. Lows between the 4235 six-wk low and the 4291 tuesday low keep holding, giving a descending-triangle shape inside the 4235–4400 range. Price now sits below the ema20 near 4338 and the flat EMA50, and is testing the 61.8% level of the 4235–4400 bounce as USD strength on hawkish-Fed pricing presses the floor. ATR(14) near 31 has compressed from the mid-month expansion.
Support: 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,338.00, 4,376.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4291 tuesday low exposes the 4235 six-wk low and the range floor
Close above the 4376 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending sequence, putting the 4400 range top back in play
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4338 would neutralise the current leg lower
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
The lower-high sequence from the 4510.88 early-month peak is intact. The rally off the 4235 six-week low stalled at the 4400 swing highs, and the 4371 lower high has since turned price back toward the 4291.6 swing low and the 61.8% fib of that rally, as the hawkish post-hike Fed lifts the dollar. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near $31 is contracting inside the 4235-4400 range rather than expanding.
Support: 4,291.60, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,350.00, 4,371.20, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4291.6 swing low would confirm a lower low and expose the 4235 six-week low
Recovery above the 4350 round number and the 4371 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline
H4 close above the 4400 swing highs would invalidate the downtrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Broad downtrend, now ranging near the lows · RSI 39 · price 4,321.04
Lower highs under 4400, flat floor at 4291/4235.
After the 4235 range low, the 4235–4399 rally was rejected and gold has since printed a clean lower-high sequence — 4376 prior high, then 4371, then 4369 — while the range floor built by the 4291 swing low has so far held. Hawkish Fed repricing and a dollar at seven-week highs have capped every push toward the 4400 round number, leaving price back below both EMA20 (~4348) and EMA50 with RSI near 39. ATR(14) around 3,100 pips is range-width rather than expanding, and the 4300 psych level is the pivot for whether this two-week consolidation holds.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,291.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,348.00, 4,376.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4291 swing low confirms a lower-low and puts the 4235 range low back in play
A reclaim of the 4376 prior high would break the lower-high sequence and re-open the 4400 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr shortly after are the near-term catalysts for a range break either way
Sustained trade back above the ema20 near 4348 would neutralise the current downside drift
Two-week range 4291–4400 inside a larger lower-high sequence.
Gold shed roughly 400 dollars from 4641 to the 4235 swing low across the window as the hawkish Fed repricing lifted the Dollar, and the last two weeks have been sideways repair inside a 4291–4400 range. Price is pinned between a flat EMA20 (~4345) and EMA50 (~4351), with the 4377 prior-high cluster and the 4400 psych cap — which also sits on the 38.2% retracement of the 4641–4235 leg — rejecting every probe. ATR(14) near 29 dollars is off the post-Fed extremes, a compression consistent with range behaviour rather than trend extension.
Support: 4,291.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,351.40, 4,377.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 acceptance above the 4400 psych cap would invalidate the range read and put the 4438 half-way retracement in play
Failure to hold the 4291 range low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4235 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's highest-impact print and can resolve the compression either way
A close back above the 4351 ema50 with EMA20 crossing up would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Three-week lower-high sequence capped at 4400, basing above 4291.
The slide from 4670 exhausted at the 4235 swing low after the Fed's 25bp hike and hawkish guidance, and price has since carved a 4291–4400 band with two clear rejections into the range top. EMA20 (4347.6) and EMA50 (4349.2) have flattened and converged right under spot at 4364, which is also roughly the 78.6% retracement of the 4402–4235 impulse leg — a classic compression signature after an ATR(14) peak near 28 dollars. Lower highs at 4402, 4399 and 4397 keep the ceiling well-defined while the week low at 4291 has held on two tests.
Support: 4,349.00, 4,291.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,400.00
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC (Services f/c 56, Manufacturing f/c 53.5) is the immediate catalyst for this range read
An H4 close above 4400 would break the range top and invalidate the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4291 week low re-opens the 4235 swing low and confirms the downtrend is resuming
Sustained trade back below the ema50 cluster at 4349 would neutralise the current basing attempt