21:07 UTC
Pullback from August high, lower highs building · RSI 44 · price 4,291.11
Lower highs since 25 Aug peak; lows at 4235–4283 holding so far.
Gold has retraced roughly half of the 30 Jun–25 Aug rally (3943 to 4697). Through September it has printed lower highs at the 4511 sep 3 high, ~4434 and the 4400 lower high, while the 4235 swing low, sitting on the 61.8% retracement, has held. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs and 10y yields above 5.1% knocked price back through 4300 and under both EMA(20) and the flattening EMA(50) near 4340–4350, with RSI drifting in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,235.03, 4,166.01
Resistance: 4,340.00, 4,399.53, 4,510.88
What it said to watch
- D1 close below the 4235 swing low and 61.8% fib confirms a lower low and exposes the July range top at 4166
- Reclaim of the ema50 near 4340, then a close above the 4400 lower high, breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the sep 3 high at 4511 back in view
- Fri Durables, UoM inflation expectations and Fed's Williams/Hammack could move yields and materially shift this read