21:07 UTC
Downtrend from late-Aug peak, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 4,286.06
Lower highs since 4697 into a flat 4235–4245 floor.
Gold has printed a chain of lower highs since the 25 Aug peak at 4697. The Jun–Aug rally is now retraced beyond 50%, and price is pressing a 4235–4245 floor that has held for two weeks, sitting just above the 61.8% fib near 4231. Tuesday's rejection near 4375, on hawkish Fedspeak and 10y yields above 5%, left a lower high at 4400 and closed the week below the ema50 (~4336), with RSI near 45 and EMA20 rolling toward EMA50 showing fading momentum rather than a washed-out move.
Support: 4,235.00, 4,166.00
Resistance: 4,336.00, 4,399.50, 4,510.90
What it said to watch
- D1 close below the 4235 swing low confirms a lower-low and opens the July range top near 4166
- Close back above the ema50 and the lower-high line near 4320–4340 eases the downtrend read; 4400 lower high, then the 4511 sept high, sit above
- Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and October hike odds
- EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the swing-trend roll-over