21:06 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into the floor · RSI 45 · price 4,286.06
Lower highs since 4510.88 pressing a flat 4235-4244 base.
Lower-high sequence intact since the 4510.88 peak, with each rally capped earlier: the 4399.53 range top, the 4376.03 swing high, and now a 4315.66 lower high. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 after Wednesday's hawkish-Fed, 10y-above-5% selloff. Demand has held twice at the 4244.29 swing low and the 4235.03 range floor, so price is compressing into a descending-triangle-like base, and ATR(14) near 3,200 pips is narrower than the mid-month expansion.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,315.66, 4,376.03, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 4235.03 range floor confirms a lower-low and breaks the multi-week base
- H4 close above the 4315.66 lower high, just over the 38.2% fib retrace of the 4399.53-4244.29 swing near 4304, breaks the latest lower-high
- The lower-highs trendline near 4352 and the 4376.03 swing high sit above; only a close over the 4399.53 range top unwinds the downtrend read
- Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; JOLTS and Fedspeak on Tue are earlier risk