Lower highs have stepped down from 4510.88 to the 4315.66 lower high, with repeated rejection near 4376 earlier in the week. Around 70% October hike odds and 10y yields above 5.1% pushed price to the 4244.29 swing low, which sits just above the 4235.03 window low and makes the 4235-4245 area a two-test base. Price is sitting on EMA20 and remains below EMA50, with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 33 dollars shows no compression. Lifts so far have stalled below the fib 38.2 at 4340.4 of the 4510.88-4235.03 leg.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,315.66, 4,340.40, 4,376.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235.03 window low confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Break above the 4315.66 lower high, then the fib 38.2 at 4340.4, challenges the lower-high sequence
Repeat rejection near 4376 would keep the descending trendline intact
Fed's Hammack today 18:00 UTC and Wed ADP/GDP (12:15-12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4510.88 vs a flat 4235-4255 base.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510.88 swing high, capped by a descending trendline, while lows hold a flat 4235-4255 base, giving a descending-triangle shape. Wednesday's PMI beats and 5.1% 10y yields drove the leg from the 4371 lower high to the 4244 weekly low. Price is back at the 38.2% retracement near 4303, just above EMA20 but below EMA50, with ATR(14) near 3,100 pips, well below early-window readings, and the fib 50% at 4322 is the next cap.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,321.90, 4,371.23, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235 window low breaks the flat base and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the fib 50% at 4322 and the descending trendline near 4352 would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 4371 lower high into view
Close above the 4399.5 swing high negates the downtrend structure
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; next week's PCE and NFP test October hike pricing
09:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs compressing into a floor · RSI 38 · price 4,280.44
Lower highs from 4510.88 against a flat 4235-4250 base; descending-triangle shape.
Lower highs have stepped down from 4510.88 to 4399.53 and then 4376.03 along a falling trendline, now near 4345. Lows have held flat between the 4235.03 window low and the 4244.29 swing low, giving a descending-triangle shape. The latest rejection off 4376 came after Wednesday's hot US PMIs lifted October Fed hike odds toward 70% and pushed the 10y above 5.1%. Price sits below the 4300 pivot and both EMAs, with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 3000 pips is compressed against the early-window swings.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,345.00, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235.03 window low breaks the flat base and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 4300 pivot, near the 38.2% fib at ~4304, would ease pressure on the base
A close through the falling trendline near 4345 and then the 4376 lower high invalidates the lower-high read
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Lower highs compressing onto a flat 4235-4254 floor.
Gold has printed a clean sequence of lower highs since the 4510 peak. The 4400 range top was capped twice and the 4371 lower high was rejected. Price is now pressing a flat floor between the 4235 swing low and this week's 4244 weekly low, forming a descending-triangle shape, with the declining lower-high trendline near 4357. Wednesday's PMI beats, hawkish Fedspeak and a 10y above 5.1% drove the latest leg. Price sits below both EMAs, EMA20 is under EMA50, and ATR(14) near $30 is well down from early-window levels, so the range is compressing into the floor.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,371.23, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235 swing low breaks the triangle floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming 4300 psych, then a close through the lower-high trendline (~4357), would neutralise the downtrend read
A move back above the 4400 range top would invalidate the lower-high structure outright
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Williams/Hammack Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Durables at 12:30 UTC are also due; a miss could lift price off the weekly low
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs pressing a flat base · RSI 35 · price 4,267.16
Lower highs since 4510.88; lows holding the 4235-4290 base.
Gold has printed a clean lower-high sequence from the 4510.88 swing high (4442, 4399.53, 4371), all capped by a descending trendline, while lows have held a flat 4235-4290 base, giving a descending-triangle shape. Wednesday's PMI beats lifted the 10y above 5.1% and October hike odds to about 70%. That pushed price back below the 4300 psych level and both EMA20 and EMA50, into a retest of the weekly low at 4244.29 just above the 4235.03 swing low. ATR(14) near 2750 pips is contained rather than expanding, with price compressing into the base.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,340.20, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4235.03 swing low breaks the base and confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 4300 psych level puts the 4322-4340 fib 50-61.8 zone of the 4399.53-4244.29 drop back in play
Close above the descending trendline and the 4399.53 swing high invalidates the lower-high read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durables (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read