21:07 UTC
Corrective downtrend from late-August peak · RSI 41 · price 4,256.37
Lower highs since Aug 25; lows flattening 4235-4255.
Gold has printed a month-long chain of lower highs since the Aug 25 peak at 4697 and now trades below EMA(20) and a flattening EMA(50). Yields at 2007 highs and building October Fed hike bets continue to weigh on the metal. Each weekly rebound has capped along a descending trendline that sits near the ema20 around 4335. Demand has stepped in three times at the Sep 16 swing low near 4235, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Jul-Aug rally fib at ~4241. RSI near 40 reads soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,235.03, 4,120.00, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,335.00, 4,399.53, 4,510.88
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4235 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the july range near 4120, then the june low at 3943
- Daily close above the ema20 and descending trendline near 4335, then the 4400 swing high, would break the lower-high chain
- Recovery through the sep high at 4511 would negate the correction read
- JOLTS and Fedspeak Tue, then ADP Wed, followed by PCE and NFP later in the week, could materially shift this read if the 10y pushes past 5.27%