21:07 UTC
Downtrend since late-August peak, bounce stalling · RSI 43 · price 4,063.45
Lower highs/lower lows; October range broken lower, retesting range floor.
Gold has printed a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the late-August peak at 4696.74. Price sits below a falling EMA(50), and the lower highs trendline now runs near 4114. The month-long October range between the 4066–4073 range floor and the 4227 oct high broke lower last week, as oil-driven Fed hike pricing and a firm USD knocked price through the 4000 psych level to a swing low at 3975.70. The two-session bounce since has stalled at the underside of the old range floor, still short of the 23.6% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline near 4146.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,975.70, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,114.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 4073 range floor puts price inside the October range and weakens the breakdown read
- Rejection at the range floor keeps the retest from below intact
- A close below 4000 psych and the 3975.70 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 3942.64 june low
- Lower highs trendline near 4114 and the 4227 oct high must give way to break the lower-high sequence
- Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC, with Warsh presser fallout, could materially shift this read