XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:48 UTC
Post-Fed whipsaw, drifting lower into Asia · RSI 48 · price 4,053.59
Lower highs from 4071, tight 4051–4057 range at 50% fib.
The hawkish-leaning Fed hold and Warsh presser produced a 4025–4083 whipsaw. Price was rejected at the fed spike high and again near 4071, and has since settled into early Asia session at the 50% fib near 4054, with lower highs capping at the 4057 local high. The 4051 session low and 61.8% fib at 4047 sit just below; ATR remains elevated at about 1020 pips after the Fed bars.
Support: 4,050.87, 4,047.08, 4,036.06
Resistance: 4,057.01, 4,068.01, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4051 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4047, then the 4036 pre-fed low
Close above the 4057 local high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 4068 session high
Fed spike high at 4082.67 marks the top of the post-Fed range; a reclaim negates the fade
Core PCE, GDP and claims Thu 12:30 GMT (~13h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 4082.67 top, session low under test.
The hawkish-leaning Fed hold whipsawed gold from 4025 to a 4082.67 post-fed top during NY hours. That high was rejected, and since the reopen price has faded through the 50% fib to 4052, printing a lower high at 4057 and pressing the 4050.87 session low early in the Asia session. RSI(14) is neutral near 49, price is under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50.
Support: 4,050.87, 4,047.08, 4,036.06
Resistance: 4,057.01, 4,068.01, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
Break of the 4050.87 session low exposes the fib 61.8% at 4047 and the pre-fed low at 4036
M15 close above the 4057 lower high and the descending trendline reopens the 4068 session high
Core PCE and GDP on Thu at 12:30 GMT (~13h) could materially shift this read
Pullback to 50% of the 4025–4083 FOMC range, early Asia.
The hawkish Fed hold whipsawed gold. Price swept the Asian low near 4028 down to 4025.08, then spiked to 4082.67 before stalling below the 4070 area, and the reopen slid to a 4051.08 session low. Early Asia now sits on the 50% retrace of the FOMC leg (~4053.9) and a flat EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 4,051.08, 4,047.08, 4,036.06
Resistance: 4,068.01, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4051.08 session low exposes the fib 61.8 at 4047 and the pre-fed base near 4036
Recovery above the 4068 reopen high reopens the 4082.67 fomc high
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Warsh presser fallout still in play
Lower highs off the 4082.67 fomc high, still above the 4040.8 higher low.
The hawkish Fed hold triggered a 4025–4083 whipsaw. Supply capped price at the 4070 shelf into the NY close, and the early Asia session has faded to 4051, below ema20 and between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the fomc fib. The 4049.3 swing low is the immediate test, with the 4040.8 higher low still intact beneath it.
Support: 4,049.34, 4,040.82, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,054.20, 4,070.12, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
A close below the 4049.3 swing low exposes the 61.8% fomc fib near 4047 and the 4040.8 higher low
Failure to hold the 4040.8 higher low reopens the 4025 fomc low
A reclaim of ema20 near 4054 followed by a break of the 4070 shelf would invalidate the fade read
Core PCE / GDP on Thu at 12:30 UTC, plus ongoing Warsh presser fallout, could materially shift this read
False break above 4070 after FOMC, retracing the 4025–4083 leg.
The FOMC whipsaw swept the Asian low to 4025.08, then spiked to the 4082.67 fomc high above the prior 4070.75 session high. The break did not hold, and the Asia reopen has given back to 4051.85, below the 50% retrace and ema20, as the hawkish hold and oil above $103 weigh. Price is now nearing the fib 61.8 at 4047, with supply capping the open high at 4068.
Support: 4,047.10, 4,036.06, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,055.51, 4,068.01, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 61.8 at 4047 exposes the ny low at 4036
Acceptance back below 4036 puts the fomc low at 4025 in play and erases the post-Fed bounce
Reclaim of the post-fed low at 4055.5, then the open high at 4068, would neutralise the false-break read
Warsh press-conference fallout through Asia, and Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h), could materially shift this read
22:33 UTC
Post-Fed whipsaw, now pulling back · RSI 52 · price 4,055.13
Failed push above 4070, Asia session retracing toward 50% of post-Fed leg.
The Warsh presser whipsawed gold 4025–4067 before NY extended to the 4082.67 post-fed high. The break above the 4070 cap failed, and the new Asia session slid from 4064.81 to a 4053.87 session low, which sits on the 50% fib of the post-Fed leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price is hugging EMA20.
Support: 4,053.87, 4,049.34, 4,036.06
Resistance: 4,070.10, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4049.34 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) unwinds the post-Fed advance and exposes the 4036 pre-fed low
Reclaim of the 4070 cap reopens a test of the 4082.67 post-fed high
Holding the session low keeps the Asian range in development between roughly 4054 and 4068
Core PCE / GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4055.5 after the Fed sweep; drifting below 4070.
The 18:00 UTC Fed hold whipsawed gold to a sweep low at 4025.08 under the pre-fed low of 4036. Price then ran to a fed high of 4082.67 as the USD softened on Warsh's presser, before rejection back below the 4070 asia high area. Early Asia trade is thin, with price at 4062 near the 38.2% retrace of the post-Fed swing and holding above the 4055.5 post-fed low; RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 4,055.51, 4,036.06, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4055.5 post-fed low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 61.8% retrace near 4047, then the pre-fed low at 4036
Failure of the post-Fed trendline from 4027.5 confirms the rebound is unwinding
Close back above the 4070 asia high reopens the 4082.67 fed high
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Post-FOMC rebound, now pausing · RSI 59 · price 4,065.60
V-reversal from the fomc low; 4055–4071 consolidation under the 4070 pivot.
The FOMC presser whipsaw swept the Asian low to the 4025.08 fomc low. USD then softened on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line, and gold ran through the 4060 session highs to a 4082.67 fed high. Price is now holding a 4055–4071 consolidation into the new Asia session, capped at the 4070 pivot, with RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 4,055.50, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4070 pivot reopens the 4082.67 fed high, with the 4092 trigger flagged for short-covering above
Break below the 4055.5 pullback low puts the post-fed lows trendline and the 50–61.8% fib zone (4054–4047) in play
Loss of the 4025 fomc low unwinds the post-Fed breakout
Core PCE / GDP at Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The Fed hold and Warsh's presser whipsawed gold between the 4025.08 Fed low and the 4082.67 post-Fed high during late NY hours, as the USD softened after the presser. The move above the 4070.75 Asian high did not hold. Price is pivoting just under 4070 off a 4055.5 higher low that sits near the 50% of the post-Fed swing; RSI(14) is neutral at 58.
Support: 4,055.50, 4,047.10, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4070.75 Asian high reopens the 4082.67 post-Fed high, with the 4092 CTA trigger above it
Loss of the 4055.5 higher low breaks the post-Fed HL trendline and exposes the fib 61.8 at 4047.1
Return below 4047 puts the 4025.08 Fed low back in play
Core PCE and GDP at Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; thin Asia session comes first
Sweep of lows then HH 4082.67 / HL 4055.51, now compressing below Asian high.
The Fed hold at 18:00 UTC swept the 4025.08 fed low under the Asian low, then a V-shaped NY reversal ran through the 4070.75 Asian high to a 4082.67 session high as USD eased on Warsh's presser. The pullback held the 4055.51 swing low near the 50% fib, and late-NY price is now retesting the Asian high from below with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 4,055.51, 4,047.10, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4070.75 Asian high confirms the retest; a break of the 4082.67 session high brings the 4092 level flagged in commentary into view
Failure below the 4055.51 swing low breaks the post-Fed rising trendline and exposes the 61.8% fib at 4047.1
A drop back toward the 4025.08 fed low would leave the post-Fed rally as a false break above the Asian high
Thin late-NY and Asia liquidity ahead; Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/GDP could materially shift this read
Whipsaw low 4025, higher lows, capped near asian high.
Gold whipsawed on the hawkish 10-2 Fed hold, setting the fed low at 4025.08, then rallied as USD eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line. The move cleared the asian high at 4070.75 but met rejection at the 4082.67 session high. The pullback low at 4055.51 held near the 50% retracement, and late NY is pinned just under 4070.
Support: 4,055.51, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 4070.75 reopens the 4082.67 session high, with the 4092 cta trigger above
Loss of the 4055.51 pullback low breaks the rising post-Fed lows and exposes the 61.8% near 4047
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read; ATR near $11.65 per bar after the Fed spike
Higher low at 4055.51 after a sweep to 4025.08; capped by asia high.
The 18:00 UTC Fed hold swept the NY low to the fed low at 4025.08. Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser then drove a 57-point squeeze to a post-fed hi of 4082.67, clearing the 4060 london high and the asia high. Late NY pulled back to a 4055.51 pullback low near the 50% fib, and price now sits just under the 4070.75 asia high with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) expanded to roughly 1,190 pips.
Support: 4,060.14, 4,055.51, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4070.75 asia high reopens the 4082.67 post-fed hi, with the $4,092 short-covering level cited beyond
Loss of the 4055.51 pullback low and the post-fed support line exposes the 61.8% fib near 4047, then the fed low at 4025.08
Daily rollover at 21:00 UTC thins liquidity, so spikes around the asia high may not hold
Core PCE and GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4025 post-Fed low; capped near 4070 pivot.
The Fed hold whipsawed gold: the 18:30 UTC spike swept pre-Fed lows to the 4025.08 post-Fed low, then NY hours rallied through the 4070.75 Asian high to a 4082.67 post-Fed high. Price is now hovering just under the 4070 pivot. The 20:15 UTC swing low at 4056.94 held between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the post-Fed move, and the 4060 London high sits just above it.
Support: 4,060.14, 4,056.94, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4070.75 Asian high reopens the 4082.67 post-Fed high; the 4092 CTA trigger flagged in the digest sits beyond
Failure to hold the 4056.94 swing low breaks the post-Fed higher-low trendline and puts the 4025.08 post-Fed low back in view
Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) and lingering Warsh press-conference fallout could materially shift this read; ATR(14) near 1180 pips
False break above Asian high, retracing post-Fed leg.
The hawkish Fed hold set off a whipsaw late in the NY session. Price dipped to 4025.08, then ran through the 4070.75 Asian high to a 4082.67 post-Fed high, but could not hold above it and has dropped back to 4056, near the 50% fib of that leg. RSI(14) is neutral around 55 and ATR(14) has widened to about 1,140 pips. Re-firming oil and a steady USD, as flagged in the digest, fit the rejection near the 4070 area.
Support: 4,047.08, 4,036.06
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4070.75 Asian high negates the false break and puts the 4082.67 post-Fed high back in play
Prior swing at 4060.14 is the first cap overhead; repeated rejection there keeps the retracement intact
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 4047 exposes the 4036 pre-Fed low and the 4025 FOMC low
Core PCE and GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Post-FOMC rebound, stalling at Asian high · RSI 62 · price 4,069.76
V-recovery off 4025 post-fed low; break above 4070.75 Asian high met a rejection wick at 4082.67.
The hawkish Fed hold and Warsh's press conference whipsawed gold between the 4025 post-fed low and 4067 during the decision bars. Price then pushed through the 4070.75 Asian high and the London high at 4060. The 4082.67 post-fed high printed as a rejection wick, and price is now sitting back at the Asian high late in NY hours with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 4,060.14, 4,047.10, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4082.67 post-fed high puts the 4092 trigger level flagged for CTA short-covering in play
Sustained closes back under the 4070.75 Asian high would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4060 London high exposes the fib 61.8 retracement near 4047, then the 4025 post-fed low
ATR near 1250 pips reflects the FOMC spike and is likely to compress after the NY close
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC, plus continued fallout from Warsh's press conference, could materially shift this read
The FOMC hold whipsawed gold through a 4025.08 fomc low, sweeping the 4028 Asian low, before Warsh's press conference lifted it through the 4060.14 ny high and the 4070.75 asian high to a 4082.09 session high late in the NY session. Higher lows along the post-FOMC rising line show demand stepping in on each dip. RSI(14) at 66 is firm but not stretched, and ATR has widened to roughly $13.5.
Support: 4,070.75, 4,060.14, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,082.09, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4070.75 asian high returns price to the prior day range
Break of the post-FOMC rising line puts the 4060.14 ny high back in play
Acceptance above the 4082.09 session high opens the path to the 4092 short cover level cited by TD
Warsh press conference still in progress; Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Post-FOMC rebound inside day range · RSI 60 · price 4,061.45
False break of Asian low, higher lows since.
The hawkish 10-2 Fed hold and Warsh presser produced a $42 whipsaw. The FOMC low at 4025.08 briefly took out the Asian low near 4028 before reversing, and price has since printed higher lows to sit at 4061, near the 78.6% fib of the Asian high–FOMC low drop and just above the 4060.14 prior high. ATR has more than doubled to about $10.6, so the day's 4036–4060 intraday range no longer frames moves.
Support: 4,060.14, 4,040.82, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,067.52, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Supply near the FOMC high at 4067.52 and the Asian high at 4070.75 ($4,070 resistance); an M15 close above it breaks the day's range top
Holding the 4060.14 prior high keeps the rebound structure intact; slipping back below puts the post-FOMC HL trendline near 4049 in play
Loss of the 4040.82 swing low exposes the FOMC low at 4025.08 and negates the false-break read
Warsh press conference still in progress; December-hike guidance could produce another large-range bar
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~17h) are the next scheduled risk
19:32 UTC
Post-FOMC whipsaw, recovering into upper range · RSI 58 · price 4,055.66
Two-way FOMC spike 4025–4067.5; price back below 4060 session high.
The hawkish 10-2 Fed hold set off a two-way spike during NY hours. Price swept below the 4036 NY low to the 4025 FOMC low and tagged the 4067.5 FOMC high, then reclaimed 4055, above the 61.8% of the fomc swing and above the 4048 pre-FOMC high. The 4060 session high, set during London and the early NY session, still caps the day's 4036–4060 range, and ATR has roughly doubled on the release.
Support: 4,048.20, 4,036.10, 4,025.10
Resistance: 4,060.10, 4,067.50, 4,070.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4060 session high opens the 4067.5 FOMC high and the 4070.8 day high, which also lines up with the $4,070 resistance flagged in the digest
Slip back below the 4048 pre-fomc high returns price to the 4036 NY low and the range-bottom read
Loss of the 4025 FOMC low would turn the false break into a fresh lower low
Warsh press conference is still in progress and could extend the spike in either direction; Core PCE and GDP follow Thu 12:30 UTC
Wide intraday range 4025–4071; FOMC low swept day lows then reclaimed mid-range.
The hawkish 10-2 Fed hold and Warsh presser whipsawed gold through 4025–4067. The FOMC low swept the 4028 Asian and London lows before price snapped back to about 4050, near the 50–61.8% fib of the Asia high-to-FOMC low move. Late NY sits back inside the day's range with ATR swollen to roughly $10, and supply has capped rallies at the 4058–4060 session high twice since London.
Support: 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,067.52, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Close above the 4060 session high puts the 4067.5 presser high and 4070.75 Asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 4036 NY lows reopens the 4025 FOMC low
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lingering Warsh presser headlines keep spike risk elevated into the Asia session
Two-sided sweep of the 4025–4070 range; lower highs since 12:00 UTC before the spike.
The hawkish-leaning Fed hold whipsawed gold through both ends of the 24h range. A spike to the 4067.52 spike high was rejected just under the 4070.75 Asian high. Price then swept below the 4028 asia low to the 4025.08 fomc low and settled near 4034, still capped by the 4036 ny low. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 940 pips as Warsh's presser runs.
Support: 4,028.07, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,036.06, 4,048.19, 4,067.52
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4036 ny low and then the 4048 pre-fomc hi would reopen the 4060–4067 spike high zone
Acceptance below the 4025 fomc low turns the sweep of the asia low into a fresh lower-low
Warsh press conference in progress now; Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~17.5h) could reset the range
Wide two-way presser bar swept the day low and closed back above the NY range top.
After the in-line Fed hold, the 18:30 GMT Warsh presser bar ran both sides. It swept below the 4028 Asian-session lows to the 4025.08 fed low, then spiked to the 4067.52 fed high. Price settled near 4052, above the 4036–4048 NY range (ny lows to ny high) and the lower-highs line off the 4060 london high. ATR(14) has roughly doubled on the move and RSI(14) sits near 57, neutral, with an upper-wick rejection below the 4070.75 asian high.
Support: 4,048.19, 4,036.06, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,067.52, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4048 (ny high) returns price to the pre-Fed 4036–4048 NY range and negates the breakout
Acceptance above 4060 (london high) opens a retest of the 4067.5 fed high and 4070.75 asian high
Break below 4025 (fed low) would confirm a lower-low under the Asian-session lows
Warsh presser still live at window end; December-hike language and yield moves around 5.04% could whip either side of the presser bar range
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 43 · price 4,038.90
Lower highs 4060 → 4048, Fed spike held above Asian low.
The in-line 18:00 GMT Fed hold whipsawed gold between 4047.65 and 4030.34. The spike was rejected just under the ny high at 4048, which also sits at the 61.8% fib. It swept the ny low at 4036, then the fed low at 4029.75 held above the asian low at 4028. Price is pinned under EMA20/50 and a lower-high line from the 4060 london high as Warsh's presser opens, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR(14) about $5.5.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,029.75, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,048.19, 4,060.14
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4048 ny high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 4060 london high
Failure to hold the 4029.75 fed low and 4028 asian low confirms a lower low below the Asia-session base
Warsh press conference under way at 18:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the 4070 asian high is the next upside reference
Thu 12:30 GMT core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) is the next scheduled volatility point
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 35 · price 4,031.22
Lower highs 4060→4048→4047; FOMC bar broke 4036 prior lows.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4060.14 London high. The FOMC hold, with the statement keeping December live and USD firm, produced a two-way spike: a rejection at the 4047.65 fomc high, then a break of the 4036 prior lows to 4030.34. Price now sits just above the 4028.07 session low during NY hours, RSI(14) near 35 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,028.07, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,047.65, 4,060.14
What it said to watch
Fed press conference at 18:30 GMT could materially shift this read within the next few bars
M15 close below the 4028.07 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 psych level
Reclaim of the 4036 prior lows weakens the breakdown; a close above the 4047.65 fomc high breaks the lower-highs trendline
4060.14 london high caps the session; Thursday core PCE is next scheduled risk
Lower highs from 4060 compressing onto a flat 4036 NY floor.
Asia was rejected at the 4070 asia high and slid to a 4028 session low. London lifted price to the 4060 day high, then NY printed lower highs onto a 4036 NY low floor, leaving price at the 61.8% of the London leg. The FOMC decision bar spiked to 4047.65 and faded, still capped below the 4048 lower high.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,048.19, 4,060.14
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4036 ny low breaks the NY floor and exposes the 4028 session low
Close above the 4048 lower high and the NY lower-highs trendline opens the path to the 4060 day high
A break of the 4060 day high brings the 4070 asia high, the digest's support-turned-resistance, back into play
Lower highs from 4060, flat base at 4036 into FOMC.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4060 session high in the London-NY transition, fading below 4050 as USD firmed into the Fed. The 4048 spike high was rejected and price sits on the 4036 session low minutes before FOMC, RSI(14) near 41 and below both EMAs.
Support: 4,036.00, 4,028.10
Resistance: 4,048.20, 4,060.10
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC likely to resolve the 4036–4048 range
M15 close below the 4036 session low exposes the 4028 asian low
M15 close above the 4048 spike high and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 4060 session high, with 4070 asia high above
17:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from NY high, compressing pre-FOMC · RSI 39 · price 4,038.83
Lower highs from 4060, range 4036–4048 with twin lows.
Gold has slid from the 4060 NY high into a 4036–4048 box as USD stayed firm into the Fed. The 17:15 spike was rejected at the 50% fib of that drop near 4048, while twin lows around 4036 have held. RSI(14) sits near 39 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,048.19, 4,060.14
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 GMT and the 18:30 GMT presser are likely to resolve the 4036–4048 range
An M15 close below the twin lows at 4036 exposes the 4028 session low
An M15 close above the 50% fib at 4048 reopens the 4060 NY high
Lower highs since Asia high, NY low holding twice near 4036.
Gold has printed a lower-high chain at the 4070.75 Asia high, the 4060.14 lower high and the 4048.19 spike high as USD firmed into the Fed. NY-hours dips held twice at the 4036 ny low. The 16:45 UTC spike was rejected at the 50% retrace of the 4060–4036 drop, leaving price compressing below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,048.19, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
A close below the 4036 ny low exposes the 4028 asia low.
A close above the 4048 spike high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 4060 lower high.
The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read. A push through the 4070.75 asia high would invalidate the lower-highs line.
Lower highs at 4060 and 4046 since the 4070 Asian high; demand holding near 4036.
Gold was rejected at the 4070 Asian high, then printed lower highs at the 4060 swing high and the 4046 lower high. Into NY hours, the dip found demand at the 4036 swing low, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the 4028–4060 swing. Price is coiling below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37, as a firm USD keeps gold capped ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,028.24
Resistance: 4,046.31, 4,060.14
What it said to watch
Break of the 4036 swing low exposes the 4028 asian low
M15 close above the 4046 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 4060 swing high
FOMC at 18:00 GMT and the 18:30 presser, ~75 min out, could materially shift this read; ATR likely to expand from ~490 pips
A move back through the 4070 asian high would negate the lower-high sequence
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 4,040.39
Lower highs since 4060 session high; NY low 4036 tested twice.
Gold has printed lower highs through NY hours since the 4060.14 session high and now sits on the 61.8% retrace of the London rally near 4040. The NY low at 4036 has been tested twice as a firm USD caps the metal ahead of the 18:00 UTC FOMC; RSI(14) is in the mid-30s, not yet oversold.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,046.31, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Break of the 4036 NY low exposes the 4028.07 asian low and the 78.6% retrace near 4035
Close above the 4046.31 lower high breaks the NY lower highs trendline
Only a recovery of the 4060.14 session high reopens the 4070.75 asian high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4060.14, session low 4036 holding, inside Asian range.
Gold faded from the 4060.14 swing high at the London-NY transition, printing lower highs at 4057.8 and 4046.3 as USD held firm into the Fed. Price is back near the 4036 session low, tested twice during NY hours, and still sits inside the 4028–4070.75 Asian range. RSI(14) is near 38, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,046.31, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4036 session low exposes the 4028 Asian low
M15 close above the 4046.3 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 4060 swing high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 4070.75 Asian high is the digest's cap
Contracting range inside the Asian range, lower highs and higher lows.
Gold is still inside the Asian range (4028.07–4070.75). The NY high at 4060.14 was a lower high and drew a rejection down to a 4036.89 NY low, with the 4046.31 bounce high now capping as a firm USD weighs ahead of FOMC. Lower highs and higher lows are compressing price about two hours before the 18:00 UTC decision, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,036.89, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,046.31, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4036.89 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 4028.07 asian low back in play
Close above the 4046.31 bounce high reopens the 4060.14 NY high and the lower highs line
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC are likely to break the compression either way; ATR near 500 pips will expand
Break above the 4070.75 asian high invalidates the range read
Gold is still trading inside the Asian range (4028.07 day low to 4070.75 asia high), with lower highs at 4070.75 and the 4060.14 london high. The NY open sold off to the 4036.89 ny low, and the bounce is stalling near the 38.2% of that NY leg, just under the 4050 round number, as a firm USD keeps price below $4,070 into the Fed.
Support: 4,036.89, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 GMT and Warsh presser 18:30 GMT could break the session range in either direction
M15 close above the 4060.14 london high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4070.75 asia high above
Failure to hold the 4036.89 ny low exposes the 4028.07 day low
Rejection under the 4050 round number keeps the NY leg fib retracement shallow
4028–4060 range, second rejection under range top.
Gold failed for a second time under the 4058–4060 range top and slid to a 4036.89 NY low in the first hour of NY, breaking the 4043 midday pivot. The bounce stalled at the 4046.11 bounce high, near the 38.2% retrace, with price below both EMAs as USD firms ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 4,036.89, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,046.11, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Close below the 4036.89 ny low exposes the 4028.07 day low at the range base
Recovery through the 4046.11 bounce high and 4050 opens a retest of the 4060.14 range top
Lower-highs trendline from the 4070.75 asia high caps rallies while it holds
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range; lower highs from 4060, higher low above 4028.
London and the first NY hours have stayed inside the Asian range (4028–4070). Supply capped two pushes at the 4058–4060 london high, then NY slid to a 4036.89 ny low, a higher low above the asian low. A firm USD into the FOMC keeps price below EMA20 near 4047, with RSI(14) neutral at about 45.
Support: 4,036.89, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,060.14
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4036.89 ny low exposes the 4028 asian low; a break there marks a lower low on the session
Reclaim of the 4060 london high reopens the 4070 asian high, which is also the digest's $4,070 resistance
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC (about 3h away) could materially shift this read
Loss of the higher-low line from 4028 to 4037 shifts the read from range to downside continuation
Lower highs from 4070.75; NY broke the 4043 pullback low.
The Asia high at 4070.75 marked a rejection at the $4,070 support-turned-resistance, and the session has since printed a lower high at 4060.14. The first hour of NY broke the 4043 pullback low to set a ny low at 4036.89. Price sits near the 50% of the London rally fib, below 4050 psych and both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 43 in pre-FOMC caution.
Support: 4,036.89, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Close below the 4036.89 ny low exposes the 4028.07 london low and day low
Reclaim of 4050 psych and the lower highs trendline challenges the lower-high sequence toward 4060.14
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 4070.75 asia high is the upper boundary
Lower highs from 4070.75; NY broke the 4043 pullback low.
Gold met rejection at the 4060.14 session high, still under the lower highs line from the 4070.75 overnight high, then slid through the 4043.08 London pullback low in the first hours of NY as the USD firmed into FOMC. A session low at 4036.89 is holding for now, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,036.89, 4,028.07, 4,024.61
Resistance: 4,043.08, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Holding below the 4043 broken low keeps the lower-low sequence intact. A reclaim exposes the 50-61.8% zone of the NY decline fib at 4048.5-4051.3.
Failure at 4036.89 brings the 4028 asian low and the 4024.61 yday low into play.
A close above 4060.14 and the lower highs line would invalidate the intraday downtrend read, with the 4070.75 overnight hi next.
The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC, about 3h out, could expand ranges well beyond the ~5.4 ATR.
14:18 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower into NY · RSI 48 · price 4,047.66
Lower highs inside 4043–4060 band, higher low vs asian low.
Gold is ranging between the 4043 london low and the 4060 london high after the pre-London rebound from the 4028 asian low. The first hour of NY printed a lower high at 4057.8 and a ny low at 4045.5, leaving price on the 38.2% fib, with the lower highs line from the 4070.75 asian high still overhead as a firmer USD caps gold into FOMC.
Support: 4,045.52, 4,043.08, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,057.82, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4043 london low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4040 and the 4028 asian low
Close above the 4060 london high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 4070.75 asian high
Ny low at 4045.5 giving way would extend the lower high sequence
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 4060.14 ny high, pressing the 4043 london low.
Gold's early-NY spike to the 4060.14 ny high fell short of the 4070.75 asia high, the $4,070 cap flagged in the digest, and has faded on a firmer USD. Lower highs now press the 4043.08 london low near the 38.2–50% retrace of the 4028–4060 leg. RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and price sits below both EMAs four hours before the FOMC.
Support: 4,043.08, 4,040.30, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4043.08 london low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4040.3 and the 4028.07 day low.
A recovery through the lower highs line and the 4060.14 ny high reopens the 4070.75 asia high.
The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
13:48 UTC
Range-bound after London rebound, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 4,049.39
4043–4060 range since mid-London, lower highs from the Asia peak.
Gold set the asia high at 4070.75, then slid to a 4028.07 day low into London open. The London rebound stalled at 4058–4060, and early NY session rejected the 4060.14 range top as USD firmed ahead of FOMC. Price is rotating between the range top and the 4043.08 range floor, holding near the 38.2% retracement of the London leg with a 4045.84 swing low beneath.
Support: 4,045.84, 4,043.08, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4060.14 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 4070.75 asia high
Failure to hold the 4045.84 swing low and the 4043.08 range floor (near the 50% retracement) reopens the 4028.07 day low
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 480 pips is likely to expand
13:17 UTC
Recovering from London low, stalling below 4060 · RSI 52 · price 4,054.14
Higher lows since 4028.07, capped under 4060 inside Asian range.
Gold slid from the 4070.75 Asian high to a 4028.07 London low on a firm USD, then rebuilt higher lows at 4043.08 into the London-NY transition. The session high at 4060.14 met rejection, and price is holding near the 61.8% retrace at 4054 with RSI(14) neutral around 52 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 4,043.08, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4060.14 session high opens a test of the 4070.75 Asian high, the $4,070 cap noted in the digest
Break below the 4043.08 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and leaves the 4028.07 london low exposed
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 480 pips likely expands
13:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, capped below Asia high · RSI 54 · price 4,054.94
HH/HL chain since 07:00 UTC, trading mid-Asian range ahead of NY open.
London rallied from the 4028.07 London low, printing a higher low at 4043.08 and a higher high at the 4060.14 session high. Price is still inside the Asian range, below the 4070.75 Asia high where the 00:00 UTC push was rejected. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and the firm USD into the FOMC has capped the rebound so far.
Support: 4,043.08, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4060.14 session high brings the 4065.68 prior high and the 4070.75 Asia high into play
Break below the 4043.08 higher low ends the London HH/HL chain and exposes the 4028.07 London low
Loss of the higher-low line near 4050 would signal the London rally is fading into the NY open
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows from London low · RSI 55 · price 4,054.32
HH/HL chain off 4028, capped below 4060 session high.
Asia faded from the 4070.75 asia high to a 4028 london low as the USD bid returned. London has since printed higher lows at 4043, and the London-NY transition push to a 4060 session high met a rejection, with price now holding around 4054 above both EMAs.
Support: 4,043.10, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4043 higher low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain and exposes the 4028 london low
Close above the 4060 session high puts the 4070 asia high and the digest's $4,070 resistance back in play
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday rebound, compressing below London high · RSI 54 · price 4,052.92
Higher low at 4043 after the 4028 London low; 4043–4058 range below the 4070 cap.
Gold was rejected at the 4070.75 session high at the Asia open and slid to a 4028 London low as the USD bid returned. The London rebound stalled at 4058, and the pullback held a higher low at 4043, the 50% retracement of the London leg. Price sits mid-range at 4053 ahead of the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 4,043.08, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4058 London high reopens the 4070 session high, the support-turned-resistance cap
Loss of the 4043 higher low and the rising support line exposes the 4028 London low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC, about 6h out, could materially shift this read
Asia rejected the 4070 area at 4070.75 and slid to the 4028.07 london low into London open. The London rebound stalled at the 4058.24 london high, a lower high, and has retraced to the 50% fib of that leg, where the 4043.08 session low is holding. Price sits just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 46 as the USD bid holds at two-week highs into the Fed.
Support: 4,043.08, 4,039.60, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4043.08 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4039.6, then the 4028.07 london low
Recovery above the 4058.24 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4070.75 asia high back in play
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:48 UTC
Flat, compressing after London rebound · RSI 49 · price 4,048.90
Lower high 4058 under 4070, higher low 4043 above 4028; coiling.
Asia rejected the 4070.75 asian high near the $4,070 resistance and bled to a 4028.07 london low at London open, where buyers stepped in for a leg to 4058.24 before the USD bid capped it. The pullback low at 4043.08 held the 50% retrace of that leg, and price is now coiling between lower highs and rising lows around flat EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 4,043.08, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4058.24 london high breaks the lower highs line and puts the 4070.75 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 4043.08 pullback low and the 50% retrace exposes the 4028.07 london low along the rising lows line
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; current ATR of ~455 pips likely understates the post-decision range
Lower high 4058 under 4070 Asian high; pullback holding 50% of London leg.
Gold was rejected at the 4070 Asian high, then slid to a 4028 day low before London. The London bounce stalled at 4058 (london high) and has retraced to the 4043 pullback low, the 50% fib of the move. Price is now mid-London, compressed just under EMA20/50 and below 4050 psych with RSI(14) at 51, as a firm USD caps gold into FOMC.
Support: 4,043.10, 4,039.60, 4,028.10
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,058.24
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4043 pullback low and 61.8% fib at 4039.6 opens a retest of the 4028 day low
Reclaim of 4050 psych plus a break of the 4058 london high would end the lower-high sequence and put the 4070 asian high back in play
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Down from Asia high, London bounce retracing · RSI 47 · price 4,044.31
Lower high at 4058 below 4070.75 Asia high; pullback to 50% of London leg.
Asia session rejected 4070.75 and slid to 4028.1. London's open bounce stalled at 4058.2, a lower high, and price is now testing the fib 50% at 4043.2 below the 4050 round number the digest flags as gold's cap into the Fed. RSI(14) sits near 47 with price under both EMAs.
Support: 4,043.20, 4,039.60, 4,028.10
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,058.20, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the fib 61.8% at 4039.6 points to a revisit of the london low at 4028.1
M15 close back above the 4050 round number and the london high at 4058.2 reopens the asia high at 4070.75
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC, about 7h out, could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4058 under the 4070.75 Asia high, pullback into fib zone.
Asia sold off from the 4070.75 asia high to a 4028.07 london low as the USD held its bid into FOMC. London rebounded to 4058.24 but met rejection there, printing a lower high, and price is now back at 4047, sitting on the 38.2% fib and the EMA20/50 cluster with the pullback low at 4044.80 as the nearest shelf.
Support: 4,044.80, 4,039.60, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4044.80 pullback low exposes fib 61.8 at 4039.60, then the 4028.07 london low
M15 close above the 4058.24 london high breaks the lower highs line from the 4070.75 asia high
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:33 UTC
Intraday rebound stalling, lower high in place · RSI 48 · price 4,046.36
London bounce off the Asian low retracing toward the 38.2% fib, inside the Asian range.
Gold slid through Asia from the 4070.8 Asian high to a 4028.1 Asian low. The London open lifted it to a 4058.2 London high, but price has since faded back to the 4045.7 pullback low. It now sits on the 38.2% fib and a flat EMA20/50 cluster as the USD holds its bid into the Fed, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 4,045.70, 4,039.60, 4,028.10
Resistance: 4,058.20, 4,065.70, 4,070.80
What it said to watch
Close below the 4045.7 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4039.6, then the 4028.1 Asian low
Recovery above the 4058.2 London high breaks the lower-high line, with the 4065.7 prior high and 4070.8 Asian high above
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4058.24 below the 4070.75 Asian high; price inside the 4028–4071 Asian range.
Asia sold from the 4070.75 Asian high to 4028. London open marked the 4028.07 London low and drove a rebound to a 4058.24 London high, a lower high, before slipping back under 4050 psych as the USD stays bid into FOMC. Price is now testing the 38.2% fib of the London leg near 4046.7, with EMA20/50 flat around 4047 and RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 4,046.70, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,050.00, 4,058.24, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4058.24 London high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4070.75 Asian high
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 4046.7 exposes the 4028.07 London low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could resolve the Asian range in either direction
London higher low off Asian low, consolidating under session high.
London reversed the Asia-session slide from 4070.75 off a triple bottom at the 4028.07 london low and has stalled near the 61.8% asian fib (4054.45). The 4058.24 session high is capping, the 4049.80 pullback low is holding on rising support, and RSI(14) has eased to ~61 with the USD firm into the Fed.
Support: 4,049.80, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Close below the 4049.80 pullback low breaks rising support and the London higher-low chain, exposing 4043–4046
Close above the 4058.24 session high opens the path to the 4070.75 asian high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London open, pausing below 4058 · RSI 63 · price 4,055.27
Asia lower-low chain to 4028.07 reversed; London higher-low at 4049.80 holding.
Asia sold from the 4070.75 Asia high to a 4028.07 session low. London open reversed it past the 61.8% of the Asia drop to a 4058.24 London high, and the pullback found demand at 4049.80 near the 50% level. RSI(14) is around 63 with price above both EMAs, and the firm USD into FOMC has not capped the London trend so far.
Support: 4,049.80, 4,045.00, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4049.80 pullback low breaks the London trend line and exposes the 4045 Asia shelf
Clearance of the 4058.24 London high opens the 4065.68 NY range top from yesterday, then the 4070.75 Asia high
Loss of the Asia shelf puts the 4028.07 session low back in view
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London V-reversal off the Asian low; higher low at 4049.80 under the 4058.24 rejection.
Asia sold off from the 4070.75 Asian high to the 4028.07 Asian low, and London reversed the move from the open, reclaiming $4,050 and retracing roughly 70% of the Asian decline. The push met rejection at the 4058.24 London high, just above the 61.8% fib. The pullback held a higher low at 4049.80 with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around $5.3 per bar, as gold trades the $4,050 USD-sensitivity line into the Fed.
Support: 4,049.80, 4,044.40, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4049.80 higher low breaks London rising support and reopens the 38.2% fib at 4044.40, then the 4028.07 Asian low
Clearance of the 4058.24 London high exposes the prior range top at 4065.68 and the 4070.75 Asian high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; pre-FOMC USD strength has capped gold near $4,050
09:05 UTC
Rebound from London low, stalling below session high · RSI 64 · price 4,052.73
V-recovery off 4028 retracing the Asia sell-off; rejection at 4058, holding above 4050.
Gold sold off through the Asia session from the 4070.75 asian high. London open marked the low at 4028.07, and a ~$30 rebound reached 4058.24, about 70% of the Asia sell-off fib, before a rejection. Price is back near the 61.8% at ~4054 and holding the 4050 psych with RSI(14) ~64, while a firm USD into the FOMC keeps the session high capping for now.
Support: 4,050.00, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4058.24 session high reopens the 4070.75 asian high
Loss of the 4050 psych puts the rebound at risk, with the 50% fib at ~4049 and then the 4028.07 london low in view
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the London low, back above 4050 psych and testing the 61.8% fib of the Asian drop.
London has unwound most of the Asian slide. Price climbed from a 4028.07 london low in a clean higher-low chain, reclaiming the 4050 psych level and the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 4070.75 asian high, with RSI(14) near 68. Overhead, the 4061–4066 prior high band from Tuesday's NY rally sits close, while the digest notes a firm USD into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 4,050.00, 4,045.00, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4065.68 prior high reopens the 4070.75 asian high
Failure back below 4050 psych exposes the 4045 asian shelf, then the 4028 london low
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Fed press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London rebound testing it · RSI 64 · price 4,048.47
Asia lower highs and lower lows to 4028; London rebound into the Asia lows band.
Gold sold off through the Asia session from the 4070.75 asian high to a 4028.07 london low at the open, as the USD held two-week highs before the FOMC. London has since retraced about half that drop to 4048. Price is pressing the band between the 4044.6 asia lows and the 4051.47 swing high, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 4,044.60, 4,039.00, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,051.47, 4,054.45, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4051.47 swing high opens the fib 61.8 at 4054.45, then the 4070.75 asian high
A slip back below the 4044.6 asia lows and the ema20 near 4039 returns focus to the 4028.07 london low
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 54 · price 4,043.46
Lower highs through Asia; triple base at 4028 now retesting the breakdown zone.
Asia faded from the 4070.75 asian high to three tests of the 4028 session low. The London-open bounce has carried back into the 4044–4045 breakdown zone, which is also the 38.2% retrace of the Asian decline, while a firm USD keeps gold under the 4050 psych handle ahead of FOMC.
Support: 4,037.50, 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,045.40, 4,050.00, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4045.40 breakdown zone exposes the 50% retrace near 4049.40 and 4050 psych
Failure below the 4037.50 pullback low returns focus to the 4028 session low
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:48 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, early-London rebound · RSI 51 · price 4,038.74
Lower highs from 4070.75 broken; bounce off Asian low inside Asian range.
Gold slid from the 4070.75 Asian high to a 4028.07 Asian low as the USD stayed bid into FOMC. Early London bounced to a 4040.96 London high, breaking the Asian downtrend line. Price is pressing EMA20 near 4039 with RSI(14) neutral around 51, still inside the Asian range and below the fib 38.2 of the Asian drop at 4044.37.
Support: 4,028.07
Resistance: 4,040.96, 4,044.37, 4,050.00
What it said to watch
Failure at the 4040.96 London high keeps the rebound a lower high within the Asian drop
M15 close above the 4044.37 fib 38.2 (4045 shelf) extends the bounce toward 4050 psych
Loss of the 4028.07 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence, with yesterday's 4021 prior base next
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:34 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, early London bounce · RSI 45 · price 4,037.48
Lower highs since 4070.75, base forming at 4028.
Gold printed the 4070.75 Asia high, then bled lower all session on a lower-high chain as the USD pushed to two-week highs ahead of the Fed. Early London found demand at 4028 for a third test, a double bottom, and the bounce to 4038.87 has poked through the falling trendline and is stalling at EMA20 and the 23.6% retrace.
Support: 4,028.07, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,044.37, 4,051.47, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2 fib at 4044.4 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4051.5 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 4028 double bottom resumes the downtrend toward the 4000 psych level
Asia high at 4070.75 caps the window; TD's 4092 trigger sits beyond it
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, selling pace flattening · RSI 38 · price 4,034.57
Lower highs from Asia weekly high, basing near 4028 at London open.
Gold printed a weekly high at 4070.75 at the Asia open, was rejected there, and slid about $43 through the Asia session in a lower-high chain as USD firmed at two-week highs ahead of FOMC. Three tests of the 4028 session low have held, and the London open bounce is now pressing the descending trendline just under the 4037.7 lower high, with 38.2% of the Asia drop at 4044.
Support: 4,028.07, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,037.70, 4,051.47, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4037.7 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 4044 (38.2% of the Asia drop) and the 4051.47 swing high sit above
Failure to hold the 4028 session low extends the downtrend toward the 4000 psych level
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a push back toward the 4070.75 weekly high depends on USD reversing
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into London · RSI 24 · price 4,028.88
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4070.75 Asia high.
Gold has shed about $42 from the 4070.75 Asia high. It printed a steady lower-high/lower-low chain into the 4028 session low as the USD sits at two-week highs ahead of the Fed. RSI(14) is near 24 and price is below both EMAs heading into London open, with the 4000 psych level and Tuesday's 3989 prior low the next downside reference points.
Support: 4,028.24, 4,000.00, 3,989.15
Resistance: 4,034.59, 4,045.00, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4034.6 lower high and the falling highs trendline breaks the intraday down-chain
Failure to hold the 4028 session low extends the sequence toward the 4000 psych level
A rebound into the 4045 asia shelf (38.2% of the asia drop) would test the breakdown zone
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4070.75 Asia session high; price at the 50% retrace of Tuesday's rally.
Asia session rejected the 4070.75 weekly high and has stepped lower since, slicing through Tuesday's NY lows near 4055 as USD holds two-week highs into FOMC. Price is sitting on 4028–4030, the session low and the 50% retrace of Tuesday's 3989–4070 rally, with RSI(14) near 29 and the 4045 asia shelf capping bounces.
Support: 4,028.68, 4,020.30, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.47, 4,045.00, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4028.68 session low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4020, which lines up with Tuesday's London shelf
M15 close above the 4036.47 lower high, then the 4045 asia shelf, would break the Asia lower-high sequence
London open at 08:00 UTC is the first test of whether the Asia downtrend extends or the 50% retrace holds
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could reset intraday structure; 4000 psych and the 4070.75 weekly high are the outer markers
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia-open high at 4070.75.
Gold printed a weekly high at 4070.75 at the Asia open, was rejected there, then drifted lower under a descending trendline through the Asian session as USD pushed to two-week highs ahead of FOMC. Price now sits at 4031, near the 50% retracement of Tuesday's 3989–4071 rally and just above the 4028.68 session low, with RSI(14) at 26 heading into London open.
Support: 4,028.68, 4,020.30, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.47, 4,045.00, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4036.47 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Loss of the 4028.68 session low exposes the fib 61.8% at 4020, then the 4000 psych level
The 4045 broken shelf is the next resistance if the trendline gives way; the 4070.75 weekly high caps the Asian range
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian session LH/LL chain below broken Tuesday NY range.
Asia faded from the 4070.75 session high, dropping through the ny range low at 4054 and grinding a lower-high/lower-low chain into the 4030 asia low as the dollar holds two-week highs ahead of the Fed. Price is pinned at the session low about an hour before London open, with RSI(14) near 24 and every bounce capped beneath a descending line.
Support: 4,029.98, 4,020.20, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,036.47, 4,045.50, 4,054.32
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4036.5 lower high and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the asia low at 4030 exposes the tue ny shelf near 4020, then 4000 psych
Reclaim of the asia shelf at 4045.5 (38.2% of the asia drop fib) reframes the move as a retracement toward the ny range low at 4054
London open in ~1h; FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4070.75 Asia high; Tuesday's NY range broken to the downside.
Gold tagged the 4070.75 Asia high, also the weekly high, at the open, then broke below the 4054–4065 range left by Tuesday's NY session as USD pressed two-week highs into FOMC. Since then a steady lower-high/lower-low chain has carried price to a 4032.38 session low late in the Asian session, with RSI(14) near 31, heavy but not oversold.
Support: 4,032.38, 4,020.22, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,045.45, 4,051.47, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4032.38 session low exposes the 4020 pullback low from Tuesday's NY rally, then 4000 psych
A close back above the 4045.45 broken low (38.2% fib) would stall the decline; a close above the 4051.47 lower high (50% fib) breaks the lower-high chain
London open in about 2h is the first test of whether the Asian range low holds
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:33 UTC
Downtrend, steady grind lower through Asia · RSI 27 · price 4,033.55
Lower highs from 4070.75, pressing the session low.
Asia session faded the tag of the 4070.75 weekly high. Price has since carved lower highs down to the 4032 session low as the USD holds two-week highs ahead of FOMC. It now sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of Tuesday's 3989–4071 rally, with RSI(14) near 27 and the 4021 swing base aligned with the 61.8%.
Support: 4,032.40, 4,021.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,045.00, 4,051.50, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Holding below the 4045 asia shelf keeps the lower-high sequence intact into London open
Recovery through the 4051.5 lower high negates the intraday downtrend read, with the 4070.75 weekly high above
Break of the 4021 swing base (61.8% of the Tuesday rally fib) exposes the 4000 psych level
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the weekly high · RSI 31 · price 4,037.50
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, session low in development.
Gold was rejected at the 4070.8 weekly high at the start of Asia. It has since ground lower in a lower-high sequence under a descending trendline, printing a session low at 4035.3 as USD holds two-week highs into FOMC. Price is sitting just under the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's 3989–4071 rally, with RSI(14) near 31, soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,035.30, 4,031.00, 4,020.30
Resistance: 4,039.60, 4,046.80, 4,070.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4046.8 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 4035.3 session low exposes the 50% fib at 4031, then the 61.8% fib near 4020
Reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 4039.6 would mark the first sign of the Asia slide stalling
London open in under 2h is likely to expand the range from the current session low
FOMC 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 4070.8 weekly high is the upside reference
Lower highs from Asia open high, pressing session low.
Asia tagged the 4070.75 weekly high at the open and met rejection, then rolled into a chain of lower highs as USD held two-week highs ahead of FOMC. Price is now at the session low near 4036, below the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's 3989–4071 rally, after slipping through the 4044.75 broken shelf. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, with no reversal structure yet and the 50% fib at 4030 next below.
Support: 4,029.95, 4,020.32
Resistance: 4,044.75, 4,051.47, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 4044.75 broken shelf negates the Asia breakdown; the 4051.47 lower high sits above that
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 4030 exposes the 61.8% fib near 4020
London open (07:00 UTC) either extends below or rejects the Asian range low at 4035.98
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 4070.75 weekly high is the upside marker
Asian lower highs and lower lows off 4070.75, testing the 38.2% retrace.
After the rejection at the 4070.75 asian high, the Asia session has unwound part of Tuesday's 3989–4071 rally. Price is grinding through a chain of lower highs into the fib 38.2% at 4039.6, below both EMAs. RSI(14) near 32 and shrinking bar ranges show the slide losing pace, with the oil-led bid fading as USD holds two-week highs into FOMC.
Support: 4,039.60, 4,030.00
Resistance: 4,051.50, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the fib 38.2% at 4039.6 extends the lower-low sequence toward the fib 50% near 4030
A recovery above the 4051.5 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain and brings the 4070.75 asian high back into view
London open in roughly 2h is the first test of whether the compressed Asian range expands
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia after rejection at 4070.75.
Gold rallied from the 3989 Tuesday low to the 4064–4065 area during NY hours as softer oil eased Fed-hike pressure. Asia printed a 4070.75 high at the open and was rejected; price has since ground down below the ny range low at 4054.3 and is now sitting on the 38.2% fib near 4039.6 at the Asian session low, with RSI(14) near 28 heading into London open.
Support: 4,039.60, 4,030.00, 4,020.30
Resistance: 4,051.50, 4,054.30, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 4039.6 extends the pullback toward the 50% fib near 4030, with the 61.8% fib at 4020.3 below
Recovery above the 4051.5 lower high, then the ny range low at 4054.3, would break the Asian lower-high sequence
Failure to reclaim the asia high at 4070.75 keeps the rejection read intact
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 29 · price 4,042.56
Early Asia pushed above the prior high at 4065.7 to an asian high of 4070.8 and was rejected. Price then broke the overnight range low at 4054.3 and slid to the asian low at 4041.5, near the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's NY rally off 3989. Late Asia session, RSI(14) near 29 and price below both EMAs, as the oil-driven bounce fades into FOMC.
Support: 4,041.50, 4,030.00, 4,022.60
Resistance: 4,054.30, 4,065.70, 4,070.80
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4041.5 asian low exposes the 50% fib near 4030 and the 4022.6 swing low
M15 close back above the 4054.3 range low would negate the range break
Only a reclaim of the 4065.7 prior high and 4070.8 asian high would undo the false-break read
London open in about 3h is the first test of the asian low
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs off 4070.75, retesting NY breakout zone.
Late Asia session: gold printed a rejection at the 4070.75 Asian high and has carved lower highs since. It is giving back part of Tuesday's oil-driven rally from 3989 and sits on the session low at 4042.8, the old NY breakout zone, just above the 38.2% fib at 4039.6. RSI(14) near 30 and price below both EMAs, ATR ~520 pips.
Support: 4,042.80, 4,039.60, 4,030.00
Resistance: 4,051.50, 4,055.00, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
A close below the 4042.8 session low and the 38.2% fib at 4039.6 exposes the 50% fib near 4030
A recovery above the 4051.5 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line; the 4055 NY base then caps ahead of the 4070.75 Asian high
London open liquidity may decide whether the 4042–4044 retest holds
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 4070.75 session high; range floor broken, basing at 4043.
Asia session spiked to a 4070.75 session high above the NY range top, then rejected into a lower-high chain that broke the 4055 range floor and stalled at the 4043 session low. Price is compressing between that low and the 4051.5 lower high, still above the fib 38.2 of the oil-driven 3989–4070 rally, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 4,043.04, 4,039.60, 4,030.00
Resistance: 4,051.50, 4,055.00, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4043 session low exposes the fib 38.2 at 4039.6 and the fib 50 near 4030
Reclaim of the 4051.5 lower high and a return above the 4055 range floor negates the lower-high sequence
London open is the first test of the 4043–4051.5 box
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Asia pullback inside the prior-day rally, lower highs · RSI 30 · price 4,045.27
LH/LL chain from the 4070.75 asia high; late-NY 4055–4065 range broken lower.
Gold rallied from 3989 to 4070.75 on easing oil. Asia then rejected the asia high and broke the 4055 range floor, printing lower highs down to the 4044.58 asia low. Price now sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of that rally, with RSI(14) near 30 and the 4051.47 bounce high capping the late-Asia rebound.
Support: 4,044.58, 4,039.60, 4,032.12
Resistance: 4,051.47, 4,055.00, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4044.58 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4039.6 38.2% fib and the 4032 prior high
Recovery above the 4051.47 bounce high and back over the 4055 range floor breaks the Asia lower-highs line
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range low holds
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs after a false break above the NY high.
Gold rallied on Tuesday from 3989 on easing oil. The Asia session then printed a false break above the NY high at 4065.68, tagging a 4070.75 session high before rejection. Price has since fallen through the 4054 range floor to a 4044.58 session low, with lower highs capping each bounce and RSI(14) near 36; the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday move sits at 4039.6, near the 4032 prior break zone.
Support: 4,044.58, 4,039.58, 4,032.12
Resistance: 4,054.32, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4054 range floor and the lower highs line negates the pullback read
Failure to hold the 4044.58 session low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4039.6, then the 4032 prior break
Retest of the 4065.68 NY high / 4070.75 session high would re-open the upper range
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
False break of session high, then range break below 4054 range floor.
Asia session pushed above Tuesday's 4065.68 NY high to a session high at 4070.75. That move failed, and price sold through the 4054 range floor of the 4054–4065 NY range to a session low at 4044.58, with RSI(14) near 33. Price now sits between the 23.6% fib of the 3989–4070 rally at about 4051.5, which capped the last bounce, and the 38.2% fib near 4039.6. Gold is drifting lower in a quiet tape ahead of tonight's Fed decision.
Support: 4,044.58, 4,039.58
Resistance: 4,051.47, 4,054.32, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4054 range floor negates the range break and returns focus to the 4065–4070 session high
Failure to hold the 4044.58 session low exposes the 38.2% fib near 4039.6
A break of the Asia lower highs trendline near 4050 ends the micro lower-high sequence
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4070.75 false break; prior range floor lost.
Gold's rally off the 3989 Tuesday low came as oil eased. The Asia session poked to a 4070.75 session high above the 4065.68 prior high and then reversed. That false break was followed by lower highs and a drop through the 4054 range floor of the NY afternoon consolidation. Price is holding just above the 4044.58 session low, between the 23.6% and fib 38.2 retrace of the 3989–4070 move, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 4,044.58, 4,039.58, 4,032.12
Resistance: 4,054.32, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4044.58 session low exposes the fib 38.2 at 4039.6, then the 4032 breakout lvl from Tuesday's NY leg
Recovery above the 4054 range floor and the lower-highs line would neutralise the pullback read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4070.75 Asian high; 4054 range floor broken.
Asia session poked above the 4065.68 NY high to a 4070.75 Asian high, then reversed in a false break, slicing through the 4054 range floor to a session low at 4044.58. RSI(14) sits near 32. Price is sitting between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the 3989–4070.75 rally that ran through London-NY on easing oil.
Support: 4,044.58, 4,039.58, 4,029.95
Resistance: 4,054.32, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4044.58 session low exposes the 38.2 fib at 4039.6, then the 50% fib near 4030
Recovery back above the 4054.32 range floor neutralises the false-break read
Reclaim of the 4065.68 NY high and 4070.75 Asian high resumes the HH chain
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia false break above NY high, lower highs since, late-NY range floor broken.
Tuesday's London-NY rally from 3,989 to the 4,065.7 NY high came as oil eased. Early Asia pushed briefly to 4,070.75 and was rejected. A string of lower highs has since taken price through the 4,054 late-NY range floor to 4,045, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib levels of the rally, with RSI(14) near 29.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4,054 range floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 4,039.6 exposes the 4,032 NY pivot from the US-session breakout
Reclaim of the 4,065.7 NY high and 4,070.75 Asia high restores the higher-high sequence
Asia lower-highs trendline capping near 4,055–4,060 keeps the pullback structure intact
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian false break above prior high, then break below the late-NY range floor.
Asia session pushed a false break above Tuesday's 4065.68 prior high to a 4070.75 session high. Price then reversed through the 4054 range floor that held through late NY, printing a 4045.45 session low with RSI(14) near 31. The drop is retracing part of Tuesday's London-NY rally off 3989, which the digest ties to easing oil and lower Fed hike risk; price sits just above the fib 38.2.
Support: 4,045.45, 4,039.60, 4,030.00
Resistance: 4,054.32, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4054 range floor restores the prior 4054–4066 range read
Failure to hold the 4045 session low exposes the fib 38.2 near 4039.6, then the fib 50 at 4030
Acceptance back above the 4065.68 prior high and 4070.75 session high negates the false break
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC Warsh presser could materially shift this read
False break above NY high, slipping below late-NY range floor.
Tuesday's oil-driven rally from 3989 ran into a 4054–4065 range through late NY. The Asia session opened with a poke through the 4065.68 NY high to a 4070.75 Asia high that was rejected. Price has since slipped below the 4054.32 range floor to the 4051 session low, sitting on the EMA50 and the 23.6% rally fib with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 4,051.05, 4,042.20, 4,029.95
Resistance: 4,054.32, 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4054.32 range floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the 4051 session low and EMA50 exposes the 4042 ny breakout, then the 4030 fib 50 of the rally
Rejection again at the 4065.68 ny high / 4070.75 asia high keeps the false-break read intact
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst; ranges may compress into it
01:32 UTC
Range after rally, Asia fading · RSI 43 · price 4,055.31
4054–4066 range after the London-NY rally; Asia false break above the range top, now testing the range low.
Gold extended the London-NY rally from 3989 to the 4065 NY high as oil eased, then went sideways in a 4054–4066 range. Early Asia poked to a 4070.75 Asia high, and that move was rejected. Price is back at the range low near 4054 with RSI(14) at 43 and price below EMA20.
Support: 4,054.32, 4,050.00, 4,039.60
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4054.3 range low ends the range read and exposes 4050 psych, then the 38.2% fib near 4039.6
Reclaim of the 4065.7 NY high reopens the 4070.75 Asia high
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sideways 4054–4071 box after London/NY rally from 3989.
Gold rallied from the 3989 London low to the 4065.68 prior high as oil eased, then went sideways through NY. Early Asia pushed to a 4070.75 session high, a false break of the box that was faded back toward the 4055.76 session low, and RSI(14) sits near 48 with price just under EMA20.
Support: 4,055.76, 4,054.32, 4,039.58
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4054.32 range low ends the consolidation read and exposes the fib 38.2 at 4039.58
Acceptance back above the 4065.68 prior high and the 4070.75 session high reopens the rally structure
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 4054–4066 range after impulsive leg up; Asia poke above range top rejected.
Tuesday's rally off the 3989 London low, driven by oil easing toward $100, stalled near the 4065 range top in late NY and has compressed into a 4054–4066 band since. Early Asia spiked to the 4070.75 asia high and was rejected within the bar. Price is back mid-range above the 4057.67 asia low, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52.
Support: 4,057.67, 4,054.32
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4070.75 asia high breaks the range; the 4092 cta trigger is the next level above
Failure to hold the 4054.32 range low exposes the 23.6% rally fib near 4051
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 56 · price 4,062.68
Post-rally consolidation 4054–4066; Asia high rejected.
Gold rallied from the 3989.15 London low to the 4065.68 prior high through NY as oil eased, then compressed into a 4054–4066 range with rising lows. Asia probed 4070.75 and was rejected straight back inside the range. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and price is sitting just above EMA20.
Support: 4,057.67, 4,054.32, 4,051.49
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4070.75 Asia high breaks the consolidation and leaves the 4092 cta trigger as the next reference
Loss of the 4057.67 Asia low and then the 4054.32 range low breaks the rising lows, exposing the fib 23.6 at 4051.49
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ranges may stay compressed ahead of it
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the intraday driver behind the rally
Tight range below the Tuesday high after a 3989–4065 rally; new Asian session high quickly rejected.
The Tuesday rally ran from the 3989 London low to 4065 as oil eased, then flattened into a 4054–4066 consolidation through the NY session. Early in the Asia session, price spiked through the 4065.68 prior high to a 4070.75 session high. The next bar erased the spike, a false break that left price back mid-range, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,057.67, 4,054.32
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4070.75 session high negates the false break and brings the 4092 cta trigger into view
Failure to hold the 4057.67 asian low, then the 4054.32 swing low, breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the Tuesday rally fib retracement zone near 4040
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Uptrend, early Asia breakout under test · RSI 57 · price 4,065.39
London low at 3989 led to a NY rally, then a 4054–4066 consolidation; early Asia broke above it and is retesting.
Gold climbed from the 3989 London low into the 4060s during NY hours as oil eased, then held a 4054–4066 consolidation through the NY close. Early Asia pushed above the range top to a 4070.75 session high. Price has slipped back to retest 4065, with the rising lows from the range low still intact and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 4,065.68, 4,057.67, 4,054.32
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4065.68 range top would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 4057.67 asian low and then the 4054.32 range low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 4070.75 session high opens the path to the 4092 cta trigger
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser could materially shift this read
Tight range 4054–4066 after NY rally from 3989 London low.
Gold climbed from the 3989 London low through NY hours as oil eased, clearing the 4032 breakout lvl and topping at the 4065.68 session high. It has since held a 4054–4066 range, with early Asia pressing the top after a dip held at the 4057.7 asia low.
Support: 4,057.70, 4,054.30, 4,032.10
Resistance: 4,065.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4065.68 session high ends the range read; the 4092 CTA trigger is the next reference
Loss of the 4054.3 range low opens the 38.2% fib near 4036 and the 4032 breakout lvl
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read