Hot US CPI lifts the dollar across the board; gold -2.46% and silver -3.34% on day

Daily Wrap, Tuesday, 10 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Mixed: This was a hawkish dollar repricing, not classic risk-off: indices averaged -0.02% over 24h while gold fell 2.61%, CHF scored -0.22 and JPY 0, leaving USD alone at the top on 0.63.

In short

• US October CPI ran hot. Headline came in at 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% forecast and core at 0.3% vs 0.2%. USD tops our strength table at 0.63, our USD digest now has a December Fed hike ~fully priced, and the US 10y yield is above 5%.
• Metals took the hit: XAUUSD fell 2.46% and XAGUSD 3.34% on the day, with gold's low at 4013.74 just above the $4,000 handle. USDCHF rose 0.78% and USDCAD 0.52%. AUDUSD was the weakest major at -0.85%, on a range 2.08x a normal day.
• US stocks closed lower, with NAS100 -0.52% on CPI and Nvidia, while EUSTX50 gained 0.6%. Oil came off its lows, with USOil +1.88% since the New York Open after an 83.002 day low. Next up: Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, then German HICP and Lagarde tomorrow morning.

Themes

CPI resets the dollar; hike size is now the question

Our USD digest has a December Fed hike ~fully priced after the beat, so the hike itself is no longer a catalyst. Further dollar gains need Waller-style 50bp talk or a hawkish repricing of the 2027 path. Softer oil, the fading haven bid and any dovish speaker or soft data are the stated vulnerabilities.

Metals give back the peace-hope rally

Gold was rejected at $4,146–4,150 and slid toward $4,000 as the 10y rose above 5%, while silver fell back below its 21-, 100- and 200-day SMAs. Specs still hold a sizeable gold net long of 179.5K, trimmed from 186.5K. PBoC buying of +25.8t is the main cushion cited. XPTUSD fell 1.95% on the day alongside.

Neither yen nor franc acted as a haven

USDJPY rose 0.54% over 24h to press the 158.68-158.70 area, helped by weak Japanese data, though MOF intervention risk near 159 limits further yen losses per our JPY digest. The franc's haven premium has bled out since Trump called the war 'effectively over', leaving CHF at -0.22 on strength.

Crypto: CPI break plus a supply overhang

BTCUSD slipped below $74,000 after CPI. About $570M of longs were liquidated across BTC, ETH and XRP, and MARA sold 13,597 BTC and said more sales are coming. ZECUSD is the outlier at -8.42% over 24h, with an alert flagging -11.89% in 80 minutes even as Grayscale pledged $1 million to Zcash.

What moved

• XAU/USD −2.46% The hot CPI and hawkish Fed commentary lifted the US 10y yield 12bp to 5.012%. Gold was rejected again at $4,146–4,150, erasing Monday's weak-dollar and US-Iran peace-hope gains.
• XAG/USD −3.34% Selling began in Europe when Fed Governor Waller warned of a bigger hike, and the CPI beat extended it, reversing an Asian push to a 1.5-week high at $53.70-$53.75.
• AUD/USD −0.85% Hotter US CPI revived the dollar after Monday's rebound, and a narrower China trade surplus plus softer NAB business confidence had already kept the Aussie subdued.
• USD/CHF +0.78% The CPI beat and hawkish Fedspeak firmed December hike bets as the franc's haven premium kept bleeding, lifting the pair back above its 50-day SMA at 0.8227.
• USD/CAD +0.52% Firmer Fed hike pricing after CPI met a loonie already hurt by weak Canadian jobs and crude at its lowest since August on US-Iran diplomacy hopes.
• NAS100 −0.52% The Nasdaq 100 led US indexes lower on the hot CPI and weakness in Nvidia, with NVDA -5.44% over 24h.

Releases

• USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average 19.75K. It was overshadowed by CPI 15 minutes later, and our feed shows no distinct market reaction to the print.
• USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.4%. The beat drove the day's main move: USD finished top of the strength table at 0.63, XAUUSD fell 2.46% and USDCHF rose 0.78% on the day.
• USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.3%. The core beat met the threshold Waller had set for a bigger hike. The platform flagged USDSGD +0.18% within 15 minutes, and GBPUSD ended -0.74% over 24h.

Levels to watch

• XAU/USD 4,000.00 Round-number D1 support. The day's low at 4013.74 stopped just above it, and the H4 double-top neckline at 4027.5 is under test.
• AUD/USD 0.6843 Support on both D1 and H4 inside a descending channel; today's low printed at 0.68434, a whisker above it.
• USD/JPY 159.032 Top of the 156.08–159.03 range in place since late September; on H4, price sits just under the flat 158.6-158.85 cap.
• USD/CHF 0.8268 H4 resistance that marked today's high, after the lower-high sequence broke above 0.8255; 0.8313 is the next H4 resistance.
• EUR/USD 1.11448 First H4 support inside the 1.1104–1.1273 range, with the H4 trend tilting lower after CPI.

Ahead

• 23:30 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech Bowman has already said CPI signals persistent inflation pressure, so any lean toward a 50bp December move would test whether the dollar can extend from a fully priced 25bp. XAUUSD, USDJPY and BTCUSD are most exposed.
• 23:30 UTC USD Fed's Paulson speech Paulson is the other Fed voice tonight. Our digests flag a dovish-sounding speaker as the main thing that could unwind part of today's USD bid, especially against metals and AUD.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) German final HICP is forecast at 2.8%, unchanged from 2.8%, and a surprise would feed straight into ECB December pricing for EURUSD and EURGBP.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) The monthly reading is forecast at -0.1% (previous -0.1%), alongside the YoY print, as an early read on whether falling energy is pulling down headline inflation.
• 08:15 UTC EUR ECB's Nagel speech Nagel has called a December ECB hike 'obvious', so a repeat is priced, but any added hawkishness meets heavy leveraged-fund EUR shorts flagged by MUFG.
• 09:45 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Our EUR digest names a hawkish Lagarde as a potential trigger for a sharp short squeeze in EURUSD after the euro slipped below 1.1200 on CPI.

Into the next session, the focus is whether Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC give 50bp December talk any traction. Our digests flag that as the one thing that could extend the dollar move, with USDJPY sitting just under its 159.032 D1 range top.