US CPI at 08:30 ET: core seen at 0.2% m/m as Waller's hike warning weighs on metals

New York Open, Tuesday, 10 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Risk-on: On a 24h view risk appetite is firm: indices are up 1.69% on average while CHF (-0.29) and JPY (-0.16) are weak. Gold (-0.93%) and oil (-3.78%) are falling on de-escalation and a hawkish Fed rather than on risk stress.

In short

• US October CPI lands at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET). Core m/m is forecast at 0.2% (prev 0.3%) and headline m/m at 0.3% (prev 0.6%), with ADP's 4-week average at 13:15 UTC. Our USD digest has a December Fed hike ~84% priced.
• London belonged to the metals. After Fed Governor Waller warned of a larger hike, XAUUSD is -1.03% and XAGUSD -1.4% since the London Open, and USDCHF is +0.27%. FX stayed tight, with EURUSD ranging 0.59x a normal day.
• Oil keeps bleeding on US-Iran peace hopes: UKOil is -2.32% and USOil -1.68% on the day. European equities firmed, with ESP35 +1.05% since the London Open, while US futures eased (SPX500 -0.13%, NAS100 -0.25%).

Themes

CPI decides whether Waller's warning sticks

Waller's call for aggressive tightening if core accelerates stalled Monday's oil-driven USD slide, with DXY consolidating near 101.70. With a December hike ~84% priced, an in-line 0.2% core adds little. Desks see a soft print as the bigger repricing risk, since it would stack on the energy-led USD selling.

Oil's war premium keeps draining

WTI and Brent extended Monday's slide on US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear-talk hopes, with Brent's two-month low at $92.57. That helps EUR via terms of trade, while CAD is the weakest major on the 24h strength board (-0.32). Desks flag outsized short-covering risk on any setback in the talks.

Metals carry the hawkish Fed hit

Gold reversed Monday's run to $4,150 and silver dropped toward $52 as Waller kept a 50bp December move live. Silver is underperforming, with the gold/silver ratio at 77.92. Desks see a soft core as having room to unwind the Waller-driven drop, while a hot core remains a risk for gold.

What moved

• XAU/USD −1.03% Waller kept a 50bp December hike on the table and traders took profit into CPI, sending gold back below $4,100.
• XAG/USD −1.40% Waller's 'larger hike' warning lifted the USD and hit silver harder than gold, with the gold/silver ratio up to 77.92.
• USD/CHF +0.27% CHF's haven premium faded after Trump called the war 'effectively over', and Waller's hawkish remarks supported the USD.
• EUR/USD −0.12% Waller's warning of aggressive tightening if core CPI runs hot lifted the USD, and EURUSD gave back early gains to around 1.1220.
• ESP35 +1.05% Spanish and euro-area banks led (SAN.MC +3.51%, BNPP.PA +3.38%), but there is no single clear driver in our news feed.

Levels to watch

• XAU/USD 4,057.92 Nearest H4 support inside the 4030-4146 range, above the 4029.93 higher low.
• EUR/USD 1.1200 D1 support inside the five-week 1.1104-1.1273 range, just under the current price and beneath a falling EMA50.
• USD/JPY 158.77 D1 resistance that also caps the 157.26-158.77 H4 range, inside the 158.70-159.04 zone our JPY digest tags as intervention-sensitive.
• USD/CHF 0.8227 H4 resistance and the latest lower high in the downtrend from 0.8395; price is compressing just beneath it.

Ahead

• 13:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average The weekly private-payrolls read (prev 16.8K, no forecast) lands 15 minutes before CPI, so its main role is to set the USD tone into the main event.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) Headline is forecast at 0.3% after 0.6%, with softer energy in the background. USD, gold and silver are the most exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Core is forecast to cool to 0.2% from 0.3% and is the print desks say decides it. Given ~84% December hike pricing, our digests see more room for a USD move on a soft core than on a hot one; EURUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD are exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) The calendar shows 3.9% forecast vs 3.7% previous, but per the news the release is not expected to include 12-month changes, so the m/m figures carry the weight.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) The calendar lists 2.8% forecast vs 2.6% previous, with the same caveat that y/y changes may be absent from this report.
• 14:00 UTC EUR ECB's Cipollone speech This is the first ECB voice after CPI, following Lane's view that a December hike is prudent if the data don't shift; EURUSD and EURGBP are exposed.
• 16:45 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech Lane can confirm or soften his December-hike line, which matters in a market where leveraged funds hold heavy EUR shorts.
• 17:30 UTC EUR ECB's Escrivá speech It is a further read on ECB appetite for a December hike, a factor for EUR crosses.
• 18:30 UTC CAD BoC Summary of Deliberations BoC hike bets have been pared after the jobs miss and slowing wages, so the Summary shows whether policymakers lean the same way; USDCAD is exposed.
• 18:30 UTC GBP BoE's Pill speech After the 9-0 hike, desks are watching for December-hike versus hold leanings, with GBPUSD and EURGBP exposed.
• 20:30 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech Bowman is the first scheduled Fed voice after CPI and a chance to confirm or push back on Waller's larger-hike framing.

Watch core CPI against the 0.2% m/m forecast at 13:30 UTC and whether it moves the ~84% December hike pricing, with Bowman at 20:30 UTC the first Fed reaction.