Quiet Tokyo handover: AUD tops the board, NZD trails, gold slips before US PCE

Asia Open, Thursday, 29 October 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Quiet: Indices average 0.06% over 24h, there is no haven bid in JPY (-0.09) or CHF (0), and gold is down 0.16% against a 2.03% rise in oil, so risk appetite lacks conviction either way.

In short

• Little has changed since the Daily Wrap. Most FX ranges are well below a normal day, USDJPY sits at 157.782 and EURUSD at 1.11561. Gold is the main mover, down 0.29% since the last note.
• The Antipodean split is the standout on the strength board: AUD leads at 0.48 and NZD trails at -1.11. NZDUSD is clawing back part of the RBNZ flush, and a fresh headline shows Australia's Q3 trimmed mean CPI rising to 3.7% y/y from 3.6%.
• Our calendar has no scheduled Asia-Pacific release through Tokyo and Sydney. The next tests are US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB at 13:15 GMT, then Tokyo CPI and the BoJ late Thursday into Friday, per our desk.

Themes

Yen waits on Tokyo CPI and BoJ

No Japan data is scheduled inside this window. Tokyo CPI ex fresh food (f/c 2.6%) lands Thu 23:30 UTC, and the BoJ decision follows Fri 03:00 UTC, where a hold at 1.25% is expected. Our desk sees a plain hold as a non-event. The swing factor is Ueda's December signal, while MUFG flags 160 as the likely intervention threshold for USDJPY.

AUD-NZD divergence holds the Asia focus

AUD tops the strength board after hot CPI lifted RBA hike bets to about 78% for Nov 3, and AUDUSD reached 0.7054, its highest since Sep 23. NZD is the weakest major after the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold, and our desk notes curve pricing is still rich. Australia's Q3 PPI on Fri 00:30 UTC is the next local data point, ahead of the RBA on Nov 3.

What moved

• XAU/USD −0.29% Gold stays on the back foot after the hawkish 10-2 Fed hold, with December-hike odds and oil holding near $102 capping rebounds, per our desk.
• NZD/USD +0.08% The pair is retracing part of the one-bar flush that followed the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold at 2.75%, according to our H4 chart read.
• AUD/NZD −0.07% The cross is easing back from its highest level since March 2013 near 1.2600, a peak reached on hot Aussie CPI and the RBNZ hold.
• JP225 +0.26% No single clear driver in our news feed; the yen remains soft with USDJPY pinned near 158, per our desk.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 157.65 H4 support at the higher-low base after the failed range breakdown; price sits just above it, inside UOB's 157.55-158.05 intraday band.
• AUD/USD 0.70629 First H4 resistance above the broken 0.7005-0.7040 range; the day's high so far is 0.706, just beneath it.
• XAU/USD 4,000.00 D1 support at the floor of the broken October range, now being retested, with 3975.7 as the next support below.

Through Tokyo and Sydney, watch whether AUDUSD holds its H4 range break and whether NZDUSD's bounce off the RBNZ flush survives. Together they read how far the Antipodean divergence runs before US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC.