Silver slides 2.16% as USD steadies in Asia; US PCE and ECB decide the afternoon

London Open, Thursday, 29 October 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Quiet: Risk appetite is flat: indices average 0.05% over 24h and gold is down 0.01%, with JPY soft at -0.19 and CHF firm at 0.17, so the haven signals cancel out.

In short

• The dollar regained a little ground in Asia. Since the last note EURUSD is down 0.16% at 1.11399, GBPUSD is down 0.11% at 1.33124 and AUDUSD is down 0.13% at 0.70438. FX ranges stayed well below a normal day, with EURUSD at 0.52 of typical.
• Metals took the hit. XAGUSD fell 2.16% to 52.707, XPTUSD fell 1.45% and XAUUSD fell 0.55% to 4030.26. BTCUSD lost 1.74%, while JP225 finished up 0.57%.
• The European morning brings EZ sentiment at 10:00 GMT (ESI f/c 97.5). Then comes the US block at 12:30 UTC: core PCE YoY f/c 3.1% and GDP f/c 3.2%. The ECB follows at 13:15 GMT, with the deposit rate f/c 2.5%.

Themes

Metals sold hard ahead of PCE

Silver fell 2.16% since the last note to 52.707 and platinum 1.45%, while gold lost 0.55% to sit at 4030.26. Our desk links it to Warsh's firm inflation stance and December hike odds around 85%. With CTAs short across all signals per TD, the desk sees the bigger asymmetry in a soft PCE sparking short-covering rather than a hot print extending the slide.

EURUSD pinned near the yearly low into PCE then ECB

EURUSD trades at 1.11399, just above the 1.1110 area that UOB flags as the trigger for a sustained decline. US core PCE at 12:30 UTC lands before the ECB at 13:15 GMT, so the pair gets two shocks in quick succession. Our desk reads bearish consensus as crowded, with France fiscal risk an independent drag.

USD firmer since Asia open, still last on 24h board

USD claws back ground overnight, but it still ranks bottom of the 24h strength board at -0.21, while CAD leads at 0.51 after the BoC hike to 2.50%. USDCAD sits at 1.399, below the 1.4000 pivot BBH flagged. JPY is soft at -0.19 with USDJPY at 157.811 ahead of Tokyo CPI and the BoJ late Thursday into Friday.

What moved

• XAG/USD −2.16% Silver extended Wednesday's losses in Asia after failing again at $55.00 resistance, with Warsh's 2% inflation stance and roughly 84% December hike odds keeping the non-yielder offered, per our desk.
• XAU/USD −0.55% Gold slipped back below $4,050 as Fed hike bets and Iran risks revived USD demand, after the rebound stalled at the $4,070 support-turned-resistance.
• BTC/USD −1.74% There is no BTC-specific headline in our feed; our desk frames it as a macro-liquidity trade into core PCE, and the platform flagged a 1.11% hourly drop in BITUSD at 01:51 UTC.
• EUR/USD −0.16% EURUSD gave back part of its post-Warsh bounce on renewed USD demand in Asia, with traders sidelined ahead of the ECB, per our desk.
• JP225 +0.57% Our feed has no single clear driver for the Nikkei. The JPY digest cites upbeat AI earnings and a soft yen, and the index recovered after a 1.06% hourly drop flagged at 02:16 UTC.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1113 Floor of the three-week 1.1113–1.1269 range. The H4 chart shows a double low here within a lower-high downtrend.
• GBP/USD 1.3297 First D1 support beneath spot, in a downtrend of lower highs below the falling EMA(50); the October bounce was capped at a 50% retrace.
• AUD/USD 0.7040 Broken prior range top now being retested as support, inside an H4 run of higher highs and higher lows from the 0.6894 swing low.
• USD/CAD 1.3968 Six-week swing low under retest, with lower highs in place since 1.4299.

Ahead

• 10:00 UTC EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator Forecast 97.5 vs 97.9 previous. A softer print adds to the weak-growth case that already weighs on EURUSD near its yearly lows ahead of the ECB.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Consumer Confidence Seen unchanged at -17.9, it is a second-tier read on euro-area demand for EUR crosses before Lagarde.
• 12:30 UTC USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) Forecast 3.1% vs 3%. With a December Fed hike near 85% priced, our desk sees a soft print as the bigger risk for USD, while gold and silver are exposed to short-covering.
• 12:30 UTC USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) Forecast 0.3% vs 0.2%. The monthly core print is the cleanest read on whether the second hike gets pulled forward, which matters for USD, USDJPY and metals.
• 12:30 UTC USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized Q3 growth is forecast at 3.2% vs 2.2%, and it lands with PCE, so growth and inflation hit the dollar and US indices at once.
• 12:30 UTC USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index Forecast 3.5% vs 6.1%. It is a second inflation gauge in the same release that can reinforce or blur the PCE signal.
• 12:30 UTC USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) Headline is forecast to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%, keeping oil-driven inflation worries in focus for USD and rates-sensitive assets.
• 12:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 199K vs 194K. It is a labour-market check that is likely to be overshadowed by PCE unless it surprises sharply.
• 13:15 UTC EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility A hold at 2.5% is fully priced, so the reaction in EURUSD and EURGBP rests on the statement and press conference.
• 13:45 UTC EUR ECB Press Conference Lagarde's December wording decides direction. Our desk sees more squeeze potential in a hawkish nod than downside in a non-committal hold, unless 1.1110 breaks on a close.
• 15:50 UTC EUR ECB's Cipollone speech It is the first chance for a Board member to clarify or soften Lagarde's message while US markets are still open.

The 12:30 UTC core PCE print is the one to watch: with a December Fed hike largely priced, how the dollar and the sold-off metals react to it sets the tone before Lagarde speaks.