AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 2 November 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

23:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 34 · price 0.69971

Lower highs from 0.7068; 0.7013 floor broken, trading below 0.7000.

The post-FOMC spike to 0.7068 on Thursday's Asia session marked the week high. Each rally since has been capped lower, while the 0.7013 floor held through Thursday NY, Friday NY and Monday's London morning. That broken floor gave way at the London-NY transition on Monday as AUD lagged on pre-RBA de-risking despite a softer USD. Late NY pushed under the 0.7000 psych handle to a 0.6994 monday low, with price below the EMA(20) near 0.7008 and below the weekly open at 0.7026, and RSI(14) at 34.

Support: 0.69938

Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7013, 0.70256

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision and SoMP at 03:30 UTC, press conference 04:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
  • Hourly closes back above the 0.7013 broken floor would turn Monday's break into a false break
  • Failure to hold the 0.6994 monday low extends the lower-low sequence
  • A reclaim of the 0.7026 weekly open and the lower highs line breaks the sequence of lower highs
  • US midterm results overnight add two-way USD risk

22:04 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 37 · price 0.69979

Lower highs and lower lows; 0.7013-0.7014 floor broken, retested from below.

AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 0.7068 peak. The 0.7013-0.7014 prior lows held Thursday, Friday and Monday's open, then gave way in London hours Monday as AUD underperformed into the RBA after soft China PMIs. A NY-session retest stalled at 0.7021, and price now sits just under the 0.7000 psych handle near the 0.6994 week low, below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 37 and the lower highs line overhead.

Support: 0.69938

Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70135, 0.7034

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and Bullock's 04:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read around the 0.7000 psych handle
  • An H1 close back above the 0.7014 prior lows negates the range break and brings the lower highs line and 0.7034 monday high back into view
  • A retrace of the 0.7068 decline beyond its 38.2% level (~0.7022) would break the lower-high sequence
  • Acceptance below the 0.6994 week low extends the lower-low sequence
  • US midterms and JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC) add USD two-way risk to the structure

21:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday peak · RSI 33 · price 0.69948

Lower highs and lower lows; 0.7013 floor broken Monday London.

Since the 0.7068 peak in Thursday's Asia session after the hot CPI and Fed, H1 has printed a sequence of lower highs along a falling trendline. The 0.7013 prior floor held three times before London broke it on Monday. The NY bounce to 0.7021 faded back below the 0.7000 round number to a fresh week low at 0.6995. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 33, as AUD lagged into the RBA on soft China PMIs, Iran risk-off and a weak manufacturing PMI.

Support: 0.69946, 0.6900

Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70135, 0.70256

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and Bullock's 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; a hawkish hike versus a near-peak signal is the key split
  • An H1 close back above the 0.7013 prior floor negates the range break; the lower-highs trendline, weekly open at 0.7026 and 50% fib of the week's decline cluster near 0.7027-0.7031
  • Failure to hold the 0.6995 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the multi-month trend line near 0.6900
  • US midterm results overnight add two-way USD risk alongside the RBA

20:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday's peak · RSI 36 · price 0.70004

Lower highs from 0.7068; 0.7013-0.7014 range floor broken Monday, price pinned at 0.7000.

The post-CPI and FOMC rally topped at 0.7068 in Thursday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, with Friday's high at 0.7043 and Monday's weekly open at 0.7026 both lower. Friday's NY sessions held the 0.7013-0.7014 range floor twice, but Monday's London session broke through it and through the 0.7000 psych level as AUD lagged on weak China PMIs, Iran risk and pre-RBA trimming. A NY bounce to 0.7021 stalled at the range floor and EMA(20) zone and faded back to the 0.6996 monday low, with RSI(14) near 36, not yet oversold.

Support: 0.7000, 0.6996

Resistance: 0.7014, 0.7026, 0.7043

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (presser 04:30 UTC): hike guidance on further tightening vs near-peak could materially shift this read
  • H1 close below the 0.6996 monday low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 0.7000 psych handle
  • Reclaim of the 0.7014 range floor and the 0.7026 weekly open would neutralise the range break
  • Break above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.7043 fri high invalidates the downtrend read
  • US midterm results overnight and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC add USD-side event risk

19:02 UTC

Downtrend, pressing the 0.7000 handle · RSI 38 · price 0.70015

Lower highs from 0.7068 week high; 0.7014 base broken Monday.

AUDUSD has printed a series of lower highs since Thursday's 0.7068 high, with each rebound capped near the 61.8% fib. The 0.7014 base held through the Thursday and Friday NY sessions but broke in London on Monday as AUD underperformed on pre-RBA trimming, soft China PMIs and Iran-related risk-off. A first-hour-of-NY bounce off 0.6999 stalled at the 0.7021 NY high, below the 0.7026 weekly open, and price is back at the 0.7000 psych level with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.

Support: 0.7000, 0.6900

Resistance: 0.7014, 0.7021, 0.7026

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and the 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; a near-peak or hold outcome adds pressure on the 0.7000 psych level
  • H1 acceptance below 0.7000 extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.6900 trend line cited in the digest
  • Recovery through the 0.7014 broken base, the 0.7021 NY high and the 0.7026 weekly open would test the lower highs trendline
  • US midterm results overnight into Asia Wed add USD-side event risk to the structure

18:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 43 · price 0.70097

Lower highs from 0.7068; Thu–Fri range floor broken Monday, retest capped.

Lower highs have stacked up since the 0.7068 peak after Wednesday's hot CPI and FOMC, and the Thursday–Friday range floor at 0.7013–0.7014 gave way in Monday's London session, with a monday low at 0.6999 just under the 0.70 handle into the London-NY transition. The NY rebound stalled at 0.7021, beneath the old range floor and below EMA(20), and price has since slipped back toward the ny low at 0.7006. AUD lagged the majors on Monday as positioning was pared ahead of the RBA and soft China PMIs and Iran risk weighed.

Support: 0.70064, 0.69991

Resistance: 0.70135, 0.70256, 0.7034

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and Bullock presser 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
  • H1 close below the 0.6999 monday low confirms a lower-low beneath the 0.70 handle
  • Reclaim of the 0.7014 range floor, then the 0.7026 weekly open (near the 38.2% fib of the 0.7068–0.6999 drop), would challenge the lower-high line
  • Break of the lower-high line and the 0.7034 monday high would void the downtrend read
  • US midterm results overnight add two-way USD risk

17:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since post-FOMC peak · RSI 44 · price 0.70163

Lower highs from 0.7067; false break under 0.7000 reclaimed.

AUD/USD has printed lower highs since the 0.7067 prior high set after FOMC. The Thursday–Friday prior lows near 0.7014 gave way in Monday's London session as AUD underperformed into the RBA, but the dip stalled at 0.6999, a brief false break of the 0.7000 round number, before a first-hour-of-NY bounce back above 0.7014. Price still sits below EMA(20) near 0.7018 with RSI(14) around 44, and the 0.7021 bounce high and 0.7034 Monday high (near the 50% retrace of the decline) cap the recovery so far.

Support: 0.7014, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7034, 0.70675

What it said to watch

  • H1 close back below 0.7014 prior lows and the 0.7000 round number would confirm a lower-low and negate the false break
  • H1 close above the 0.7034 Monday high would break the lower-highs trendline and the sequence from the 0.7067 prior high
  • Acceptance above the 0.7021 bounce high and EMA(20) would shift the read toward a range rather than a downtrend
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and the 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; US midterm results overnight add two-way risk

16:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday peak · RSI 44 · price 0.70155

Lower-high sequence; false break below 0.70 handle reclaimed.

AUDUSD has carved lower highs since the post-CPI/FOMC peak at 0.7068 in Thursday's Asia session. The 0.7013 prior lows held from Thursday through Monday's open. London then pushed through them to 0.6999 as AUD lagged into the RBA. The dip under the 0.70 handle was reclaimed in early NY hours, a false break that leaves price at 0.7016 on the 23.6% retracement of the week high-low fib, just under the ema20 (0.7018), with RSI(14) near 44. Overhead, the weekly open at 0.7026 sits alongside EMA(50) and the 38.2% level, with the Monday high at 0.7034 the next layer.

Support: 0.70135, 0.69991

Resistance: 0.7018, 0.70256, 0.7034

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision at 03:30 UTC Tue and Bullock's 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
  • An H1 close back below the 0.7013 prior lows and acceptance under the 0.70 handle confirms a fresh lower-low
  • Recovery above the weekly open at 0.7026 and the lower-high line near 0.7030 would break the lower-high sequence, exposing the monday high at 0.7034
  • US midterm results overnight into Wed add USD-side headline risk

15:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs, rebound from 0.70 · RSI 47 · price 0.70183

Lower highs into 0.7014 floor; London break to 0.6999 reclaimed in NY.

AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's post-CPI peak at the 0.7068 prior high. The 0.7013–0.7014 range floor held four tests before London pushed through it today, as pre-RBA de-risking, soft China PMIs and a miss on the S&P manufacturing PMI weighed. The drop to a 0.6999 session low under psych 0.7000 was reclaimed in the first hour of NY as the USD softened, leaving a false break, and price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.7019 with RSI(14) recovering to ~47 from 32. The weekly open at 0.7026 lines up with EMA(50) and the 38.2% of the week decline fib. The Monday high at 0.7034 sits on the lower-highs trendline above.

Support: 0.70135, 0.69991

Resistance: 0.70256, 0.7034

What it said to watch

  • ISM Mfg PMI (15:00 UTC) lands in the current bar and Goolsbee speaks at 16:15 UTC; a USD move tests the 0.7026 weekly open or the 0.7014 range floor
  • H1 close back below the 0.6999 session low negates the false break and confirms a lower-low under psych 0.7000
  • Close above the 0.7034 monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence in place since Wednesday
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and Bullock presser 04:30 UTC: hawkish guidance puts the 0.7068 prior high back in view, while a dovish hike or hold pressures the 0.7014 range floor
  • US midterm results Tue could shift USD direction across the whole weekly structure

14:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 31 · price 0.70018

Range floor broken, testing 0.7000 handle.

AUDUSD has printed lower highs since the post-FOMC week high at 0.7068 in Thursday's Asia session, stepping down to 0.7043, 0.7034 and Monday's 0.7031 lower high. The 0.7013–0.7014 range floor held on Thursday, Friday and the Monday open, but gave way during London into the NY open, leaving a 0.6999 Monday low. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 31, as the Aussie underperforms on soft China PMIs, Middle East risk-off and position trimming before the RBA.

Support: 0.69991

Resistance: 0.70135, 0.70309

What it said to watch

  • H1 close back above the 0.7014 range floor would mark the break as a false break
  • Acceptance below the 0.6999 Monday low and the 0.7000 handle extends the lower-low sequence
  • A close above the 0.7031 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 0.7068 week high caps above that
  • US ISM Manufacturing today 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee 16:15 UTC could shift the USD side
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and Bullock's 04:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read

13:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 36 · price 0.70061

Lower highs from 0.7068; 0.7013 floor broken.

AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 0.7068 post-Fed peak. That sequence compressed price onto the 0.7013–0.7014 range floor, which held three tests before giving way in Monday's London session as risk-off, weak China PMIs and a soft Australian manufacturing PMI weighed into tomorrow's RBA. The Monday low at 0.7003 sits just above the 0.7000 psych handle, with price below EMA(20) near 0.7019, RSI(14) around 36 and the lower-highs trendline capping near 0.7028.

Support: 0.70034, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.70135, 0.70188, 0.70256

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the 0.7013 range floor would turn Monday's break into a false break
  • Sustained trade below the 0.7000 psych handle and the Monday low extends the lower-low sequence from 0.7068
  • Rallies that stall at EMA(20) near 0.7019 keep the lower-highs trendline structure intact
  • A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.7026 weekly open, toward the 50% fib near 0.7035, negates the downtrend read
  • US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could shift this read through USD
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC: the hike is priced, so guidance could materially reshape the structure

12:03 UTC

Downtrend, lower highs since Thursday's 0.7068 peak · RSI 35 · price 0.70046

Lower highs; Thu–Fri range floor near 0.7013 broken in London session.

Since the post-Fed/CPI peak at 0.7068 in Thursday's Asia session, the pair has printed a lower-highs sequence along a falling trendline. Supply has capped every bounce since, including the 0.7034 high after Monday's gap below the 0.7032 Friday close. The London session took out the Thursday–Friday range floor at 0.7013–0.7014 and set a day low at 0.7003, just above the 0.7000 round number. Safe-haven USD demand on Iran headlines drove the move, and price sits below EMA(20) near 0.7019 with RSI(14) at 35, not yet oversold. The weekly open at 0.7026 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7068 drop near 0.7028.

Support: 0.70034, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.70135, 0.70256, 0.70321

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (25bp hike to 4.85% largely priced) plus Bullock's 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
  • US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could move USD before the RBA
  • An H1 close back above the 0.7013 range floor would mark the break as a false break
  • Acceptance below the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7003 day low extends the lower-low sequence
  • An H1 close above the lower-highs trendline near 0.7030, which sits close to the weekly open and the Friday close, would break the falling structure

11:02 UTC

Downtrend from the week high, momentum soft · RSI 36 · price 0.70105

Lower highs since Thursday; 0.7013–0.7014 range floor broken in London.

The hot CPI print and the FOMC hour lifted the pair to a 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: the 0.7043 friday high, then the 0.7034 high just after Sunday's gap below the 0.7026 weekly open. The 0.7013–0.7014 range floor absorbed tests on Thursday, Friday and at Monday's open. It gave way during London as safe-haven USD demand and mixed China PMIs weighed on AUD, leaving a 0.7008 session low just above the 0.7000 round number. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.7022, and RSI(14) is in the mid-30s.

Support: 0.70083, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.70137, 0.70256, 0.70427

What it said to watch

  • Hourly close back above the 0.7014 range floor would mark the London break as a false break
  • Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number extends the lower-low sequence from the week high
  • Close above the lower-highs trendline (~0.7030) and the 0.7026 weekly open would neutralise the downtrend read
  • US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could shift the read during NY hours
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (hike to 4.85% forecast) is the main structural risk; guidance tone drives the 0.7000 reaction

10:03 UTC

Sideways to heavy after week-high rejection · RSI 42 · price 0.7021

Range 0.7013–0.7043 with lower highs pressing the floor.

After the hot-CPI run, AUDUSD was rejected from the 0.7068 week high early Thursday. It has since ranged 0.7013–0.7043, with every rebound stalling near the 38.2–50% fib and lower highs stepping down into Monday. The range low at 0.7013 has absorbed four tests, including both the Asia and London opens today, while price holds below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 42 as safe-haven USD flows and pre-RBA caution weigh on the Aussie.

Support: 0.7013, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7043, 0.7068

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.7013 range low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
  • Recovery through the 0.7034 monday high and the 0.7043 range top would break the lower highs sequence
  • ISM Manufacturing today at 15:00 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.7068 week high is the upside reference on a hawkish RBA

09:03 UTC

Range after fade from week high, lower highs · RSI 48 · price 0.7028

0.7013–0.7043 range, lower highs into flat base.

AUDUSD has faded from the 0.7068 week high, set in Thursday's Asia session after the hot CPI print. It has since compressed into a 0.7013–0.7043 range, with each session printing a lower high along the lower-highs line and the range top sitting near the 50% fib of the week's drop. Monday gapped below Friday's prior close on risk-off and soft China PMIs, but the range low held for a fourth time in a triple-bottom base, and the London open lifted price back to the weekly open, just above EMA(20) and below EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 48.

Support: 0.70256, 0.70132, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.70321, 0.70427

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and Bullock's 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; hawkish guidance would put the range top and 0.7068 week high in play
  • H1 close below the 0.7013 range low breaks the triple-bottom base and exposes the 0.7000 round number
  • A close above the lower-highs line and the 0.7032 prior close, then the 0.7043 range top near the 50% fib, would negate the lower-high sequence
  • US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC today could set USD direction for the NY session

08:03 UTC

Short-term downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.70198

Lower highs pressing on a flat 0.7013 floor.

The week high at 0.7068 printed in Thursday's Asia session after the hot CPI and the Fed. Thursday's NY session then reversed the move to the 0.7014 area, and lower highs at 0.7043, 0.7040 and the 0.7034 Monday high have formed against a week low near 0.7013. That floor has now seen four rejections, the latest during the London session today. Price sits below the EMA(20) near 0.7025 and the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 40, after weak China PMIs and Iran-driven risk-off gapped AUD lower at the open.

Support: 0.7013, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7025, 0.7034

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.7013 week low breaks the four-test floor and exposes the 0.7000 psych level
  • Close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.7034 Monday high, which matches the 38.2% fib of the week high-low drop, breaks the lower-high sequence
  • Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 0.7025 keeps the compression intact
  • US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC today could shift the USD side of the read
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC: a surprise hold or hawkish guidance could resolve the squeeze between the week low and the Monday high

07:03 UTC

Range, lower highs pressing a flat floor · RSI 37 · price 0.7017

Lower highs from 0.7067 against a 0.7013 base tested three times.

The hot AUD CPI print Wednesday and the Fed decision lifted the pair to a 0.7067 week high in Thursday's Asia session. That rejection unwound the whole leg by Thursday's NY session, and lower highs since then (0.7042, 0.7040, 0.7034) have stalled near the fib 50% of that decline. A triple low at 0.7013 has held on Thursday, on Friday and again after today's gap below the weekly open on weak China PMIs and Middle East risk-off, with price below EMA(20) near 0.7025 and RSI(14) in the high 30s.

Support: 0.7013, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7026, 0.7040, 0.7067

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.7013 triple low breaks the floor and exposes the 0.7000 round number
  • Recovery above the 0.7026 weekly open and EMA(20) would ease pressure on the floor; a close above the 0.7040 fib 50% ends the lower-highs sequence
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI today at 15:00 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (hike to 4.85% expected) and the 04:30 UTC presser could decide between the 0.7067 week high and 0.7000

05:03 UTC

Sideways after Thursday's sell-off, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 0.70222

0.7013–0.7043 range with a compressing lower-high ceiling.

Thursday's Asia-session high at 0.7068 unwound through London and NY into 0.7014. Since then H1 has held a 0.7013–0.7043 range, with the range top near the 50% retracement of that drop and each rebound printing a lower high. The week opened with a gap below Friday's prior close at 0.7032 on soft China PMIs and haven USD demand, retested the range base in Asia, and price now sits below the ema20 with RSI(14) near 41.

Support: 0.70135, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7028, 0.70321, 0.70427

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.7013 range base breaks the floor and exposes the 0.7000 round number
  • Recovery above the ema20 and the 0.7032 prior close fills the weekend gap; a break of the lower-high trendline near 0.7034 and the 0.7043 range top would end the range read
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC, with the guidance rather than the priced hike, could materially shift this read
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC today, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, is a USD-side risk for the range

04:03 UTC

Sideways to heavy, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 49 · price 0.70234

0.7013–0.7043 range after week-high rejection; highs compressing onto the floor.

Hot Australian CPI and the Fed meeting pushed the pair to the 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. That rejection unwound through London and NY, and price has since held a 0.7013–0.7043 range, testing the range floor three times: Thursday NY, Friday NY and Monday's gap-lower Asia open. Highs are stepping lower beneath the ema20 near 0.7028, RSI(14) is flat around 49, and risk-off plus weak China PMIs are keeping AUD heavy ahead of the RBA, with the 0.7000 psych level just below.

Support: 0.70132, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.70279, 0.70427

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.7013 range floor confirms a break and exposes the 0.7000 psych level
  • Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the 0.7043 range top would break the lower-highs sequence and reopen the week high at 0.7068
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and press conference at 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hold vs hawkish-hike split is the key asymmetry
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI today 15:00 UTC and Tuesday's midterms could move the USD side during NY hours

03:03 UTC

Range with lower highs, momentum soft · RSI 45 · price 0.70224

0.7013–0.7043 range below the 0.7068 week high; flat floor, lower highs.

Thursday's Asia-session spike to the 0.7068 week high, which followed the post-Fed bounce, was fully unwound once strong US GDP landed in the NY session. Since then the pair has held a 0.7013–0.7043 range, with three tests of the range floor (Thu, Fri, Mon) and lower highs at the 0.7043 friday high and the 0.7034 monday high, which sits at the 38.2% retracement. Monday opened with a small gap below Friday's 0.7032 close as Iran-driven risk-off lifted USD; price is back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 45, pressing toward the floor ahead of the RBA.

Support: 0.7013, 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7043, 0.7068

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.7013 range floor confirms a break of the three-touch low and exposes the 0.7000 round number
  • Recovery above the 0.7034 monday high and EMA(20) breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.7043 friday high is the range top
  • A return to the 0.7068 week high would first need acceptance above the 61.8% retracement near 0.7047
  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC (hike to 4.85% ~80% priced) could materially shift this read; guidance on further hikes is the swing factor
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 15:00 UTC could move USD during NY hours

01:03 UTC

Sideways after failed spike, lower highs forming · RSI 45 · price 0.70282

Range 0.7013–0.7068 with lower highs pressing a flat floor.

The post-FOMC push to the 0.7068 prior high early Thursday unwound fully in the NY session after the US GDP beat. The post-FOMC drop has since printed lower highs at 0.7043 (Friday high) and 0.7040 against a range floor near 0.7013, now tested three times. Monday's Asia open gapped below Friday's close on Iran-driven risk-off and briefly probed the floor before demand returned, but the bounce is stalling at the 38.2% fib near 0.7034. Price sits just under a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) at 45, and the week open at 0.7026 is acting as the pivot.

Support: 0.70256, 0.70135

Resistance: 0.7034, 0.70427

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC and 04:30 presser could materially shift this read
  • H1 close below the 0.7013 range floor breaks the multi-day base
  • Close above the 0.7043 Friday high ends the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.7068 prior high
  • US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC is a USD-side risk to the range

00:03 UTC

Range after Thursday's sell-off, below EMAs · RSI 47 · price 0.70268

Lower highs from 0.7068 week high, flat floor at 0.7013.

The hot AUD CPI print and the post-FOMC push carried price to a 0.7068 week high in Thursday's Asia session. That rejection was followed by a sell-off into the NY session on strong US GDP to 0.7014. Since then H1 has held a 0.7013–0.7043 range, with rebounds capped near the 50% fib of that drop and a lower-highs line in place. Monday opened with a gap below Friday's close at 0.7032 on Iran-driven risk-off, tested the range floor again and recovered above psych 0.7020, with price sitting under EMA(20) and RSI(14) flat near 47.

Support: 0.7020, 0.7013

Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7043, 0.7068

What it said to watch

  • RBA decision Tue 03:30 UTC: guidance on further hikes could materially shift this read
  • H1 close below the 0.7013 range floor breaks a support tested on four days this week
  • Reclaiming Friday's close at 0.7032 and the EMA(20) puts the 0.7043 range top and lower-highs line back in focus
  • Failure to hold psych 0.7020 keeps pressure on the range floor
  • US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC: a test of the NY session reaction near the range edges

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