Range break lower, now retesting old range floor from below.
After two weeks boxed between roughly 0.7012 and the 0.7042 range top, with a spike to the 0.70675 window high, AUDUSD broke lower on the dovish read of the RBA hike and printed a 0.69536 swing low. The USD-led rebound after the midterms carried price back above the 0.7000 round number but stalled at the 0.70216 rebound high, near the 61.8% retracement and just under the old range floor. Price sits between a flat EMA20 below and the EMA50 overhead, and ATR(14) near 22 pips is elevated against the earlier range phase.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.7042, 0.70675
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.70216 rebound high would put price back inside the old range and open the path to the 0.7042 range top
Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number would point back toward the 0.69536 swing low
A break above the lower-high trendline from the window high would negate the lower-high sequence
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC, then US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend from 0.7068, sharp rebound testing it · RSI 51 · price 0.70127
Lower highs from 0.7068 swing high; rebound from 0.6954 swing low into 50-61.8% fib.
After the 0.7068 swing high, AUDUSD formed lower highs inside a late-October 0.7013-0.7043 range. It broke lower after the RBA's dovish hike and printed a 0.6954 swing low. USD weakness after the US midterms then drove a 60-pip recovery back above the 0.7000 round number. Price is now retesting the old range floor around the 50% fib, with the 0.7022 rebound high just under the 61.8% level. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 23 pips from the high-teens seen during the October range.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7022 rebound high and the 61.8% fib reopens the 0.7043 range top, with the 0.7068 swing high beyond
Failure back below the 0.7000 round number puts the 0.6954 swing low back in focus
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the larger catalyst for the USD-led rebound
14:03 UTC
Range with a failed downside break, rebounding · RSI 48 · price 0.70117
Two-week 0.7007-0.7068 range broke lower to 0.6954, now recovered back inside.
AUDUSD held a 0.7007-0.7068 range for two weeks. The dovish RBA hike pushed it through the floor to a 0.6954 swing low, with EMA20 crossing below EMA50 on the way down. USD softness after the midterm result drove a sharp rebound back above the 0.7000 round number. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the 0.7068-0.6954 leg, pressing EMA50 near 0.7013, with the fib 61.8 at 0.7024 overhead and ATR(14) expanding to about 23 pips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.7024, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above the fib 61.8 at 0.7024 shifts focus to the 0.7040 range cap, where highs clustered repeatedly
Recovery through the 0.7068 range high would fully negate the breakdown
H4 close back below the 0.7000 round number revives the false-break-fail scenario toward the 0.6954 swing low
US ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today and AU Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since 0.7068; range floor lost.
AUDUSD spent most of the window in a 0.7013-0.7040 range. A push to the 0.7068 swing high failed, and the dovish RBA hike then knocked price through the range floor to a 0.6954 swing low. Price has rebounded off the 0.6960 low cluster into the 0.7000 psych level, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the 0.7068-0.6954 leg. EMA20 is flat at about 0.6997 and sits below EMA50, while ATR(14) has expanded to around 21 pips from roughly 13 during the range.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7013, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7013 range floor would put price back inside the old range and negate the breakdown
Rejection at the 0.7000 psych level, followed by a break of the 0.6954 swing low, would extend the lower-low sequence
US ADP and ISM Services today (13:15 and 15:00 UTC) could materially shift the read via USD
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC; a weak print would bring the 0.6960 low cluster back into focus
06:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending below former range · RSI 29 · price 0.6961
Lower highs and lower lows since range break below 0.7013.
AUDUSD spent two weeks in a 0.7013–0.7067 range before losing the range floor early this week, after the dovish RBA hike and softer metals prices. Since then it has printed a sequence of lower highs (0.7034, 0.6997, 0.6980) and a fresh swing low at 0.6954, even as the USD sold off on the Democratic sweep. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50 and ATR(14) has expanded to ~21 pips, while RSI near 29 shows stretched downside momentum.
Support: 0.6954, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6997, 0.7013, 0.7067
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7013 range floor would undo the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6954 swing low exposes the 0.6900 round number
A recovery through the 0.6997 lower high, at the 38.2% retracement of the drop, would break the lower-high sequence
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC is a secondary risk
Broke below multi-day range floor and 0.7000, now pressing the swing low.
AUDUSD held a 0.7014–0.7040 range for most of late October, but the spike to 0.7068 failed. The drop from 0.7068 then cut through the range floor and the 0.7000 round number after the RBA's dovish hike, with weaker metals adding pressure. Since then the pair has printed a clean sequence of lower highs, the latest at 0.6990, and lower lows into the 0.6960 swing low. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 20 pips, so the move reads as a trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7014
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6960 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.6950 psych
Close back above the 0.6990 lower high breaks the lower-high line
Reclaim of the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7014 range floor would negate the range-break read; the 0.7000 level also sits near the 38.2% retracement of the drop from 0.7068
US midterm results and Iran headlines overnight could materially shift this read, with crowded AUD shorts adding squeeze risk
US ADP and ISM Services on Wed and the Australia Trade Balance on Thu 00:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts