AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Rebound off week low, stalling just above 0.70 · RSI 56 · price 0.70033
Mon–Tue lower highs broken Wednesday; now a tight 0.7001–0.7022 range.
AUD/USD bled lower from the 0.7034 Monday high through the post-RBA selloff, printing a 0.6954 week low in Wednesday's Asia session. Broad USD selling after the US midterm result then drove a roughly 68-pip rebound through the lower-highs line and back above 0.70 into London. Since the 0.7022 Wednesday high, price has held a 0.7001–0.7022 range through NY. It now sits on a flattening EMA(20), RSI(14) has eased to the mid-50s, and price is just under the 23.6% level of the Wednesday rally fib.
Support: 0.70012, 0.6960, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 0.7001 NY low breaks the range floor and exposes the 38.2% Wednesday rally fib near 0.6996, then the 50% near 0.6988
A close above the 0.7022 Wednesday high brings the weekly open at 0.7026 and the Monday high at 0.7034 into play
A return below the Tuesday low near 0.6960 would put the 0.6954 week low back in focus and negate the lower-highs line break
Australia Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC (f/c 1,200M) is the next AUD-specific catalyst for the 0.70 handle
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift the USD-driven rebound
Mon–Wed lower highs broken; tight 0.7001–0.7022 range since Wednesday London.
AUDUSD bled from Monday's 0.7034 week high into a 0.6954 week low during Wednesday's Asia session, briefly undercutting Tuesday's post-RBA low. USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep then drove a 68-pip reversal through the lower-highs line into London. Since the 0.7022 Wed high, price has held a tight range through NY, with EMA(20) rising into the 0.7001 range low and RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.7001, 0.6996, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7001 range low and EMA(20) exposes the 0.6996 fib 38.2 and a deeper retrace of Wednesday's rally
Acceptance above the 0.7022 Wed high reopens the 0.7026 weekly open and the 0.7034 week high
Loss of the 0.6954 week low would negate the false-break read and resume the lower-lows sequence
Australia Trade Balance at Thu 00:30 UTC could shift this read
US jobless claims at Thu 13:30 UTC and Friday's NFP could shift this read, given the rebound is USD-led
Lower-high trendline broken; post-rally range above round number.
Monday and Tuesday printed a sequence of lower highs from the 0.7034 Monday high, and the post-RBA slide extended to a 0.6954 week low in Wednesday's Asian session. A USD-led reversal on the US midterm result then took the pair back through the descending lower-highs trendline and the 0.7000 round number, with the Wednesday rally topping at the 0.7022 Wed high in London. NY hours have compressed into a 0.7001–0.7020 range as the ADP beat pared USD losses; price holds above EMA(20) near 0.7002 and EMA(50) near 0.6990, with RSI(14) cooling to the high 50s.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.7000 round number and EMA(20) opens a deeper retrace of the Wednesday rally toward the fib 50% near 0.6988
H1 close above the 0.7022 Wed high exposes the weekly open at 0.7026 and the Monday high at 0.7034
Failure to hold 0.6988 would leave the 0.6954 week low as the next structural reference
Australia Trade Balance (Thu 00:30 UTC) could reshape the Asian session read
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and Friday NFP could materially shift the USD-led move
20:03 UTC
Rebound from week low, momentum stalling below week open · RSI 61 · price 0.70082
Mon–Tue lower highs broken by Wednesday impulse; NY-session consolidation 0.7001–0.7022.
Monday and Tuesday printed a run of lower highs from the 0.7034 week high, and post-RBA selling extended into Wednesday's Asia-session week low at 0.6954. Broad USD selling after the Democratic midterm sweep drove a ~68-pip impulse through Asia and London. That move broke the Mon–Tue lower highs, reclaimed psych 0.7000 and stalled at the 0.7022 Wed high, just under the 0.7026 week open. NY hours have held a tight 0.7001–0.7020 consolidation above EMA(20), and RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 while price holds the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday rally.
Support: 0.7001, 0.69956, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7026 week open puts the 0.7034 week high back in play and turns the week's net move positive
Loss of psych/EMA(20) at 0.7000 and a close below the 38.2% fib at 0.6996 would signal the Wednesday rally is retracing deeper
Break back below the 0.6954 week low resumes the post-RBA lower-low sequence
Australia Trade Balance (Thu 00:30 UTC) could shift the consolidation, with US jobless claims Thu and NFP Fri as the larger USD catalysts
V-shaped recovery from 0.6954, now a tight 0.7001–0.7022 range above 0.7000.
After a Monday-Tuesday grind lower from the 0.7026 weekly open, extended by Tuesday's dovish RBA hike, AUDUSD marked a 0.6954 week low in Wednesday's Asian session. Broad USD selling on the midterm result then drove a 68-pip rally into London, breaking the lower-highs line. Since the 0.7022 london high, the NY session has held a tight range, with the 0.7000 psych level and EMA(20) absorbing the dip to 0.7001 while RSI(14) eases from the low 70s to near 62.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6988, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7026, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.7000 psych level and EMA(20) would undo the breakout and expose the 50% fib at 0.6988
Acceptance above the 0.7022 london high and the 0.7026 weekly open would open a retest of the 0.7034 week high
Failure at 0.6988 shifts focus back to the 0.6954 week low
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC are the larger USD-side risk
Lower highs carried AUDUSD from Monday's 0.7034 week high to a 0.6954 week low early Wednesday, with the RBA decision extending the slide through Tuesday's Asia session. The midterm-driven USD selloff then powered a 68-pip Wednesday rally from late Asia into London, reclaiming the 0.7000 round number and stalling at the 0.7022 Wed high just under the 0.7026 weekly open. Through the NY session the pair has held a 0.7001–0.7022 band; the pullback low tagged EMA(20) at the round number, a shallow ~30% retrace of the Wednesday rally, with RSI(14) holding near 62.
Support: 0.70012, 0.7000, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7001 pullback low and the 0.7000 round number breaks the higher lows from Wednesday
Acceptance above the 0.7022 Wed high and 0.7026 weekly open exposes the 0.7034 week high
A deeper pullback into the 38.2–50% zone of the Wednesday rally (0.6996–0.6988) would test the breakout
Return below the 0.6954 week low restores the Mon–Tue lower-high sequence
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC (~6h) and US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC ahead of Friday NFP could materially shift this USD-led read
Lower-high sequence broken Wed; ranging 0.7001–0.7022 since London.
Monday and Tuesday printed a clean lower-high sequence. The post-RBA selloff extended into Wednesday's Asia session, where a dip below Tuesday's low to the 0.6954 week low quickly reversed. The USD-led rebound on the Democratic midterm sweep then carried price through the descending trendline and back over 0.7000 into London morning, topping at the 0.7022 rally high. NY hours have held a 0.7001–0.7020 range above EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing from ~65 to ~60, the pullback contained in the upper rebound fib zone and the 0.7000 round number absorbing two NY dips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69876, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.7000 round number and EMA(20) would expose the fib 50% at 0.6988
Clearing the 0.7022 rally high opens the 0.7034 week high, Monday's Asia-session top
Loss of the 0.6954 week low would negate the false break and resume the lower-high sequence
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC (~7.5h) could shift the read in the Asia session; US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack Thu 13:30–13:50 UTC follow
Lower highs from Monday's 0.7034 week high carried price to a 0.6954 week low in Wednesday's Asian session. The dip under Tuesday's post-RBA lows reversed into a false break. The USD selloff after the Democratic midterm sweep then drove a 68-pip rebound through Asia and London, reclaiming the 0.7000 round number and breaking the lower-high trendline, with the session high at 0.7022. NY hours have held a tight consolidation above the 0.7005 range low and EMA(20) near 0.6996, while RSI(14) has cooled to ~63 despite the mixed US ADP and ISM data.
Support: 0.7005, 0.7000, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.7005 range low and 0.7000 round number exposes the 38.2% rebound fib near 0.6996
Close above the 0.7022 session high and 0.7026 weekly open opens the 0.7034 week high
AU Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 1200M) could shift the read in the Asian session
A return below the 0.6954 week low revives the lower-low sequence ahead of US claims Thu and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC
Lower-high line broken Wed; tight 0.7007–0.7022 range below session high.
From Monday's 0.7034 week high the pair carved a sequence of lower highs. The dovish RBA hike on Tuesday and London follow-through extended the slide to a 0.6954 week low in Wednesday's Asia session. USD weakness after the Democratic midterm sweep then drove a ~68-pip rebound through late Asia and London that broke the lower-high line, reclaimed 0.7000 and topped at the 0.7022 session high; since then price has compressed above the 0.7007 pullback low with EMA(20) rising toward 0.6995 and RSI(14) cooling from near 70.
Support: 0.70071, 0.6995, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
ISM Services (15:00 UTC, f/c 54.8) lands this bar and could materially shift this read during NY hours
H1 close below the 0.7007 pullback low exposes ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 0.6995
Failure back below 0.6995 would turn Wednesday's breakout into a false break
H1 close above the 0.7022 session high puts the weekly open 0.7026 and week high 0.7034 in play
AU Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 1200M) during the Asia session
Mon–Tue lower-high sequence broken; price pressing the week open from below.
Monday and Tuesday sold off from the 0.7034 week high to the 0.6954 week low in Wednesday's Asian session, with Tuesday's leg driven by the dovish RBA hike. The USD flush after the Democratic sweep lifted the pair through the lower-high line from Asia into London, reclaiming the 0.7000 round number and EMA(20) near 0.6994 and retracing about 78.6% of the week's decline. RSI(14) near 71 is overbought as price stalls beneath today's high at 0.7022 and the 0.7026 week open, with the London low at 0.7007 holding the first pullback.
Support: 0.7007, 0.7000, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7026, 0.7034
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8), preceded by S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC, could materially shift this read within the hour
H1 close above the 0.7026 week open exposes the 0.7034 week high and a full retrace of the week's decline
Loss of the 0.7007 London low breaks the rebound trendline and puts the 0.7000 round number and EMA(20) in focus
AU Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 1200M) lands in the Asian session; a miss reopens the path toward the 0.6954 week low
13:02 UTC
Downtrend this week, sharp rebound from week low · RSI 67 · price 0.70117
Lower-high trendline broken; price above 0.7000, pausing under the day high.
The week sold off from the 0.7034 week high set early Monday. A run of lower highs carried price through Tuesday's dovish RBA hike and into the 0.6954 week low during Wednesday's Asia session. From there a 68-pip rally into the London open broke the lower-highs trendline, reclaimed the 0.7000 round number and moved price back above EMA(20), helped by broad USD selling after the Democratic Congress sweep. Price is now holding a tight 0.7007–0.7016 band under the 0.7022 day high, with RSI(14) near 67 and the 0.7026 weekly open overhead.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6990, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.7026 weekly open puts the 0.7034 week high back in play and erases the week's losses
A drop back below the 0.7000 round number exposes EMA(20) near 0.6990 and the 38.2% rally fib at about 0.6996
Loss of the 50% rally fib near 0.6988 would turn the breakout into a false break and reopen the 0.6954 week low
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today; strong prints could reverse the USD dip that fuelled the rally
AU Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC could shift the Asia session read around 0.7000
Mon–Tue lower-high sequence broken; V-shaped rebound off week low back above 0.7000.
The Wednesday rally began in the Asia session at the 0.6954 week low and accelerated into London open. It lifted the pair back through the 0.7000 psych level and the downtrend line of lower highs from Monday's 0.7034 week high, as USD sold off on the Democrats' Congress sweep and lower Treasury yields. Price is now stalling at the 0.7022 session high, just under the 0.7026 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 71 and ema20 at 0.6988 well below, roughly at the 50% retracement of the Wednesday rally.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69884, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70216, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.7000 psych level would put the breakout in question and expose ema20 near 0.6988
Acceptance above the weekly open at 0.7026 and the 0.7034 week high would erase the Mon–Tue decline
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; Australia Trade Balance follows Thu 00:30 UTC
A return below the 0.6954 week low would resume the lower-low sequence
11:03 UTC
Week's downtrend interrupted by a sharp rebound · RSI 64 · price 0.7011
Lower-high sequence broken, V-shaped recovery from the week low.
After opening the week at 0.7026, the pair slid through Monday's London session and Tuesday's post-RBA trade, printing successive lower highs down to a 0.6954 week low early Wednesday in Asia. The Democratic Congress sweep and softer USD then fuelled a 68-pip rally from Asia into London. It broke the lower-high trendline and reclaimed the 0.7000 psych level and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 64, though EMA(20) is still just below EMA(50). The advance stalled at 0.7022, the Monday high, just under the weekly open at 0.7026.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6987, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7022, 0.7026, 0.7034
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.7034 week high would clear the Monday high / weekly open cluster and erase the week's sell-off range
Failure to hold the 0.7000 psych level puts the ema20 near 0.6987 in focus, aligned with the 50% level of the Wed rally fib
A break below the 0.6954 week low would reinstate the lower-low sequence
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; Australia Trade Balance follows Thu 00:30 UTC
Lower-highs line broken, 76% of week's decline reclaimed.
AUDUSD opened the week at 0.7026, sold off through Monday's London session and again on Tuesday's dovish RBA hike, then made its week low at 0.6954 in early Asia today. The Democratic sweep knocked USD lower and lifted AUD 60 pips through Asia into London, back above 0.7000 psych, EMA(20) near 0.6985 and EMA(50). That rally broke the lower-highs line from Monday's 0.7034 week high, and price now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the week's decline with RSI(14) at 69, just below overbought.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6985, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7026, 0.7034
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 0.7000 psych would return price to the post-RBA range
Acceptance above the 0.7026 weekly open exposes the 0.7034 week high and a full retrace of the week's decline
A pullback that fails to hold ema20 near 0.6985 would mark the rally as corrective within the downtrend
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could reverse the USD-led bounce, with Australia Trade Balance due Thu 00:30 UTC
Lower highs since Monday broken; reclaim of 0.7000.
Sellers drove a run of lower highs from the 0.7026 weekly open through Monday and Tuesday. The dovish RBA hike knocked the pair under 0.7000, and a fresh week low printed at 0.6954 in Wednesday's Asia session. Broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep then fuelled a 50-pip rebound into the London open, breaking the falling lower-highs line and reclaiming EMA(20) and the 0.7000 round number. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the week's decline, just under the weekly open and Monday's 0.7034 week high.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6978, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.70256, 0.7034, 0.70427
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.7000 round number would turn the lower-highs breakout into a false break
A close above the 0.7034 week high clears the week's lower-high sequence and puts last week's 0.7043 prior high in view
Losing EMA(20) near 0.6978 returns focus to the 0.6954 week low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific risk
Lower highs and lows from Monday's 0.7034 high, V-shaped bounce from 0.6954 pressing the lower-highs line.
AUDUSD opened the week at 0.7026 (week open) and was sold through Monday's NY session and Tuesday's post-RBA London open, which delivered a dovish hike. That run of lower highs and lows reached a 0.6954 week low in Wednesday's Asian session, below the 0.6961 Tuesday low. Since then the pair has retraced 40-odd pips, helped by risk relief after the Democratic Congress sweep. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50), clearing the 38.2% fib of the week's drop at 0.6984, and RSI(14) has lifted to the low 60s. It now sits at the 0.7000 psych level and the lower-highs trendline, just below the 61.8% retracement near 0.7003.
Support: 0.6984, 0.6961, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70256, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7000 psych and the lower-highs line breaks this week's sequence and opens the 0.7026 week open, then the 0.7034 week high
Rejection at 0.7000 that loses the 38.2% fib at 0.6984 keeps the downtrend read intact and points back toward the 0.6961 tue low
A break below the 0.6954 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
AU Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific risk
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound challenging it · RSI 58 · price 0.69862
Lower highs and lows since Monday; descending trendline broken.
Lower highs from Monday's 0.7034 week high carried AUDUSD to a 0.6954 week low in early Wednesday Asia trade, with the dovish-read RBA hike driving Tuesday's leg lower. The Asia-session rebound on the Democratic sweep and a softer USD has cleared the descending trendline and the 0.6980 broken high. Price is back above EMA(20) at 0.6975, just above the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline, and is testing EMA(50) near 0.6987 with RSI(14) near 58. The Tue high at 0.6997 and the 0.7000 round number sit just overhead.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6975, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.6997, 0.7026, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.6980 broken high returns price beneath the descending trendline and revives the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 0.6997 Tue high / 0.7000 keeps the downtrend structure intact; a close above opens the 0.7026 week open
Failure to hold the 0.6954 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, then AU Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open; Wednesday Asia bounce off the week low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the week opened near 0.7026. The RBA's dovish hike during Tuesday's Asia session pushed it through 0.7000, and supply capped the London-NY bounce at the tue high of 0.6997. Wednesday's Asia session swept to a new week low at 0.6954, then a rejection of that low reversed it 28 pips as the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD. Price has reclaimed the ema20 and is pressing the descending lower-highs line and the 38.2% fib of the week drop near 0.6984, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.6972, 0.6960, 0.6954
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.6997, 0.7034
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the lower-highs line and the 38.2% fib at 0.6984, then the tue high at 0.6997 and the 0.7000 pivot, would break the lower-high sequence and bring the week high at 0.7034 back into view
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.6972 keeps the downtrend intact, with the tue low at 0.6960 and the week low at 0.6954 next
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could reverse the election-driven USD weakness behind this rebound
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open; week-low undercut reclaimed.
Lower highs have stacked under a lower-high trendline since the week high at 0.7034 in Monday's Asia session, just after the 0.7026 week open. Price lost the 0.7000 psych level during NY hours Monday, and the RBA's dovish hike to 4.85% extended the slide to the tuesday low at 0.6961 into London open. Wednesday's Asia session undercut that to a week low at 0.6954 before softer USD on early midterm tallies lifted price back, leaving it pinned at EMA(20) near 0.6972 and below EMA(50) at 0.6987, with RSI(14) near 45 capped below 60 on each bounce this week.
Support: 0.69614, 0.69536
Resistance: 0.69801, 0.69866, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the week low at 0.6954 resumes the lower-low sequence and voids the false break read
Holding above the tuesday low at 0.6961 keeps the reclaim intact
Acceptance above the session high at 0.6980 and the ema50 at 0.6987 tests the lower-high trendline; a close above psych 0.7000 breaks the downtrend structure
US midterm Senate calls and ADP (13:15 UTC) / ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia high; fresh week low printed.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia high at 0.7034. Monday's NY session took it under 0.7000, and the RBA's dovish hike during Tuesday's Asia session, followed by the London open, extended the slide to 0.6961. Tuesday's NY bounce stalled below 0.7000, and Wednesday's Asia rebound faded at a lower high of 0.6980 before breaking the 0.6961 prior low to a fresh week low at 0.6954, despite USD softness on early midterm tallies. Price sits below the ema20 near 0.6971, which has capped hourly closes since Tuesday's NY afternoon, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.69536
Resistance: 0.69614, 0.69705, 0.69801
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the 0.6961 prior low would mark the week-low break as a false break
A move through the 0.6980 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Holding below the ema20 near 0.6971 keeps the pullbacks capped
Failure to hold the 0.6954 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, plus final midterm calls, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; flat base forming at 0.6960.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7034 peak, sitting well under the 0.7026 weekly open. Tuesday's dovish RBA hike broke 0.7000 in Asia and London extended to 0.6961. NY's rebound stalled at 0.6997, the 50% retracement of the week's drop, and the midterm-driven USD dip in Wednesday Asia was capped at 0.6980 (asia high), with price back below ema20 near 0.6973. The week low at 0.6960 has held three tests, and RSI(14) is near 40 after a ~28 trough on Tuesday, a higher RSI low against flat-to-lower price lows.
Support: 0.69595
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6980 asia high and the lower highs trendline breaks the sequence since Monday
Failure to hold the 0.6960 week low extends the downtrend into fresh two-week lows
Reclaiming the 0.7000 round number would put price back above the 50% fib retracement of the week's drop
US midterm calls plus ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, basing near the 0.6960 week low.
AUDUSD has printed successive lower highs since Monday's 0.7034 high. The dominant legs came in Monday's NY session and at Tuesday's London open, after the RBA's dovish hike, breaking the 0.7000 psych level and reaching a 0.6960 week low. Tuesday's NY bounce stalled at 0.6997, near the 50% fib of the week's decline. Wednesday's Asia session lift to 0.6980 on the PMI beats has faded back under EMA(20) at 0.6974, a rejection, with RSI(14) near 41 and no divergence at the lows.
Support: 0.69595
Resistance: 0.69742, 0.69801, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.6980 asia high and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.6960 week low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of 0.7000 psych would put price back above the 50% fib of the week's decline
US midterm results and ADP/ISM Services (13:15–15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since weekly open; tight base above week low.
Price has made lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7026 weekly open. Monday's London session broke the 0.7000 handle, and Tuesday's dovish RBA hike extended the slide to 0.6961 at London open, with a marginal new week low at 0.6960 late in NY. The NY bounce stalled at 0.6997, a lower high at the 50% retracement of the week's drop, and faded after the JOLTS beat firmed the USD. Price is now holding a tight Asian range just under the EMA(20) near 0.6974, with RSI(14) around 40 and ATR compressed to roughly 8 pips.
Support: 0.69595, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.69972, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6997 lower high and the 0.7000 handle would break the lower-high line and the downtrend sequence, putting the weekly open at 0.7026 in view
Failure to hold the 0.6960 week low confirms another lower low, with the 0.6950 round number next
Midterm results and Wed ADP (13:15 UTC) / ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Australia Trade Balance Thu 00:30 UTC sits at the edge of the next session
Lower highs since Monday; 0.6960 low tested twice.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7034 high, and the dovish-read RBA hike broke the 0.7000 psych level in Tuesday's Asia session before the London open extended the drop to 0.6961. The pre-NY bounce stalled at 0.6997, a rejection just under 0.7000 near the 50% of the week's decline, and the strong JOLTS print pushed price back toward the lows. Price retested the 0.6960 week low late Tuesday and now sits just below EMA(20) near 0.6972, with RSI(14) near 41, higher than at the first low.
Support: 0.69595, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6972, 0.7000, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7000 psych and the lower-highs line would break the week's sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6960 week low opens the 0.6950 round number
Recovery through the 0.7026 week open would erase the post-RBA leg
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services could materially shift this read