Higher lows since late-June base, capped below 0.6960.
AUDUSD carved a rounded base near 0.6865 through late June and has been grinding higher lows since, coiling in the 0.6900-0.6960 band the digest flags. EMA20 and EMA50 sit below price and have turned flat-to-up, but the 0.6960 swing high repeatedly caps the recovery. ATR is compressed, consistent with a two-way range awaiting a fresh USD catalyst.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68649, 0.6860
Resistance: 0.69596, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6960 opens the 0.6980 range top
Failure to hold 0.6900 exposes the 0.6865 swing low then 0.6860
Price carved a rounded bottom off the 0.6865 swing low and has recovered into a 0.6900–0.6960 range, chopping sideways as hawkish-RBA and hawkish-Fed impulses offset. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 and price holds above both, but ATR(14) has compressed as momentum stalls below the 0.6960 range high. The bounce keeps 0.6900 as the near pivot with the recent 0.6960 cap the level to clear.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6960 opens the path toward 0.6980 key resistance
Loss of 0.6900 support exposes the 0.6865 swing low
US CPI Tue Jul 14 could materially shift this range read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend base, recovered into range · RSI 52 · price 0.69433
Range-bound below 0.6960, higher lows off the base.
Price sold off from the early-month 0.7055 high to a base near 0.6865, then recovered into a 0.6900-0.6960 range and is now consolidating around 0.6943, capped below the 0.6980 resistance the digest flags. ATR(14) has compressed toward ~18 pips as hawkish-RBA versus hawkish-Fed narratives offset, keeping the tape sideways. EMA20 and EMA50 sit just below price after the rounded recovery.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 flips the 1-3wk read to the upside
Loss of 0.6900 range low exposes the 0.6865 swing low
US CPI Tuesday could materially shift this range read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend stabilising, base forming · RSI 54 · price 0.69433
Coiled range above mid-June low.
The prior H4 downtrend bottomed near 0.6865 in mid-June and has since rebuilt into a coiled range between 0.6900 support and the 0.6960 swing high. Recovery off the base has printed rising lows with price now back above both EMAs, while ATR(14) has compressed as the pair chops sideways. Hawkish-RBA versus hawkish-Fed leaves the tape range-bound below 0.6980, consistent with the offsetting macro read.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68649
Resistance: 0.69596, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6960 opens the path to the 0.6980 range top
Failure to hold 0.6900 exposes the 0.68649 swing low
US CPI Jul 14 could materially shift this range read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend basing into range · RSI 51 · price 0.69359
Range-bound, higher lows since mid-June base.
Price sold off from the early-June 0.7085 area to a 0.6865 base, then carved higher lows to reclaim the 0.6900 floor and stall under the 0.6960 swing high. The pair is now coiling around EMA20 in a 0.6900-0.6960 range with ATR(14) compressing, consistent with the RBA-vs-Fed standoff keeping AUD pinned. EMA50 sits below spot as the earlier downtrend flattens into a base.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6960 opens the path to the 0.6980 uob pivot
Loss of 0.6900 range floor exposes the 0.6865 base low then 0.6835
US CPI (Jul 14) is the dominant catalyst that could break this coil
13:03 UTC
Range after downtrend, basing · RSI 49 · price 0.69359
Coiling 0.6900-0.6960 above the 0.6865 low.
The decline from early-June highs near 0.7088 bottomed at 0.6865 in late June; price has since based and is coiling in a 0.6900-0.6960 range with a series of higher lows. ATR(14) compression and near-flat EMAs reflect the coil, consistent with the hawkish-RBA versus hawkish-Fed standoff keeping AUDUSD two-way. Price sits back on EMA20 after stalling at the 0.6960 range top.
Break below 0.6900 range floor exposes 0.6860 then 0.6835
US CPI Jul 14 is the dominant catalyst that could break this coil
09:03 UTC
Downtrend stalled, now ranging · RSI 52 · price 0.69368
0.6900–0.6960 range after multi-day slide.
AUDUSD rolled over from 0.7075 through late June into a base near 0.6865, then recovered into a tight 0.6900–0.6960 band where the EMA20 and EMA50 have flattened and are coiling with price. ATR compression around 15 pips reflects the contracting range, consistent with the digest's read of the Aussie pinned by a hawkish Fed and Iran safe-haven bid offsetting RBA tightening talk. 0.6960 has capped rebounds twice while demand has held above 0.6900.
Support: 0.6915, 0.6900, 0.6870
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 invalidates the range read and opens the squeeze toward 0.7070
Failure of 0.6900 exposes the 0.6870/0.6835 support cluster
US CPI on Jul 14 could materially shift this read via Fed repricing
09:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, base building · RSI 49 · price 0.69368
Recovered off lows, coiling 0.6900–0.6960.
The early-June break from 0.7075 drove a multi-day downtrend that bottomed near 0.6865, and price has since carved a series of higher lows back toward the 0.6960 cap. Action is now compressing between lower highs and rising lows, with ATR(14) around 19 pips reflecting the coil; USD firmness on the hawkish FOMC minutes and Iran risk-off has kept the Aussie pinned in the 0.6900–0.6960 band.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6960/0.6980 breaks the coil and opens short-squeeze upside
Failure to hold 0.6900 exposes the 0.6865 swing low and 0.6835 200-dma
US CPI Jul 14 is the key test of the hawkish-Fed repricing driving USD
Price sold off from the early-window 0.7088 high to a 0.6865 base mid-June, then rounded higher and is now consolidating in a 0.6900-0.6980 range. Rallies have stalled below 0.6960 as firm USD on hawkish FOMC Minutes and Iran-driven risk-off offsets RBA rhetoric, per the digest. A series of higher-lows off 0.6865 keeps price pressed against the EMA20 with the 0.6980 range top still unbroken.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 opens the 1-3wk upside case
Failure to hold 0.6900 exposes the 0.6865 swing low then 0.6830 200-dma
US Jobless Claims / China CPI could shift this range read
AUDUSD sold off from 0.708 to a 0.6865 base through mid-window, then carved higher lows and reclaimed the 0.690 handle, consistent with the RBA-vs-firm-USD standoff keeping the pair boxed ~0.6900-0.6980. Price is now curling within that range, holding above EMA50 but capped near the 0.6956 swing high. ATR(14) around 18 pips shows compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6882, 0.68649
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6980, 0.7012
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 opens the 1-3wk upside case flagged in context
Loss of 0.6900 exposes the 0.6882/0.6865 base
China CPI/PMI and Jul 14 US CPI could break the range read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend fading, basing · RSI 53 · price 0.6936
Consolidation above 0.6865 base.
AUDUSD sold off through June from the 0.7075 shelf to a 0.6865 base, and has since carved a tight 0.6900-0.6956 consolidation as the pair sits pinned between hawkish RBA support and a safe-haven USD bid. ATR(14) has compressed near 15 pips, and price is now holding the EMA20/EMA50 cluster after basing above the 0.6865 low. Recent higher lows off 0.6865 mark a shallow recovery but the June downtrend structure caps the tape below 0.6956.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6956 opens the path toward the 0.6980 cap
Failure to hold the 0.6900 pivot exposes the 0.6865 swing low
US CPI Jul 14 could materially shift this range read
Higher lows off double bottom, capped below 0.6956.
AUDUSD carved a double bottom near 0.6865 after the multi-week slide from 0.7010, and has since built higher lows to reclaim both H4 EMAs. Price is now consolidating in a 0.6906-0.6956 band, with AUD pinned near 0.6920 between hawkish RBA support and a geopolitics-driven USD bid. Tight ATR(14) around 15 pips reflects compression beneath the 0.6956 swing high.
Support: 0.6906, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6956 opens the path toward the 0.6980 cap
Failure to hold the 0.6906 pivot re-exposes the 0.6865 swing low
China CPI/PMI and FOMC Minutes could materially shift this read