AUDUSD sold off ~80 pips into a sub-0.7000 spike low after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC repriced the Fed toward a September hike. Price has since clawed back into a 0.7000-0.7040 consolidation but lower highs persist, with two attempts to reclaim 0.7037-0.7041 capped during NY hours. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) hovering mid-40s.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.70412
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.7000 confirms a lower-low and opens 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.70412 needed to neutralise the lower-high structure
Australian CPI on 24 Jun 01:30 UTC is the key domestic catalyst that could break this range
23:02 UTC
Downtrend after FOMC drop, now consolidating · RSI 44 · price 0.70165
Lower highs, holding above 0.7000.
AUDUSD shed roughly 80 pips into mid-week as the hawkish FOMC repricing hit the high-beta Aussie, breaking below the prior 0.7060-0.7075 base. The recovery attempt stalled at 0.7037 and price has since drifted back toward the 0.7000 handle, holding below both H1 EMAs. Lower highs remain the dominant structure with RSI sitting in the low 40s.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.7000 confirms a lower low and opens the path toward 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.7050 pivot needed to neutralise the lower-high sequence
Australia CPI on 24 Jun and S&P PMIs on 23 Jun are the key catalysts that could reset this range
Lower highs, ranging 0.7000-0.7040 since the drop.
AUDUSD shed roughly 80 pips into a sub-0.70 spike low at 0.69946 after the hawkish FOMC flip mid-week, then clawed back to a 0.7037 recovery high as a softer USD and US-Iran de-risking lifted risk appetite. Price has since drifted back toward the 0.7000 handle, trading below EMA20 and EMA50 which have crossed bearish on the impulse. Structure is a post-FOMC range with lower highs capped by 0.7037 and 0.7050.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Decisive H1 close below 0.7000 confirms continuation toward the 0.6890 area
Reclaim of the 0.7050 pivot needed to neutralise the lower-high structure
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst that could break this range
22:02 UTC
Downtrend after FOMC break, now consolidating · RSI 43 · price 0.7015
Lower highs above the 0.7000 handle.
AUDUSD held a tight 0.7065-0.7085 band through midweek before the hawkish FOMC drop sliced through 0.7050 to a 0.6995 spike low in a single NY session. The subsequent bounce stalled at 0.7037, and price has since drifted back to the 0.7013 area on a string of lower highs, trading below both H1 EMAs with RSI(14) capped under 50.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7050
What it said to watch
A decisive break of the 0.7000 handle opens the path to the 0.6995 spike low
Reclaim of the 0.7050 pivot would neutralise the lower-highs structure
Australia PMIs (22 Jun) and CPI (24 Jun) are the next domestic catalysts that could shift this read
AUDUSD broke down through the week's 0.7070-0.7088 base after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot flip, spiking sub-0.7000 before reclaiming the handle. The recovery has stalled into a series of lower highs capped around 0.7035, with price now hovering near 0.7013 below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) sits mid-40s, reflecting the soft, range-bound tone since the NY-session drop.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6995
Resistance: 0.7035, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close above 0.7050 invalidates the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the 0.6995 spike low
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after impulse · RSI 44 · price 0.7013
Lower highs, range 0.7000-0.7040.
AUD/USD broke down after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC, shedding roughly 80 pips through the 0.7050 pivot to a 0.6994 spike low. Since then it has consolidated the 0.7000–0.7040 band below EMA20, with each bounce capping at lower highs and RSI(14) holding sub-50. The 0.7040 lower-high and 0.7000 psychological handle remain the week's battleground.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050, 0.7026
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.7000 confirms a lower low, opening 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.7040 lower-high needed to neutralise the downside structure
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst and could reset this read
AUDUSD shed ~80 pips after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC, breaking down from the 0.7065-0.7088 band and spiking to 0.6995 before reclaiming the 0.7000 handle. Since then it has consolidated 0.7000-0.7037 with RSI(14) stuck in the mid-40s, capped by a descending series of lower highs and trading below both H1 EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 0.7037 session high rejected the last bounce, leaving the 0.7000 psych level as the immediate battleground.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7050, 0.70879
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.7000 opens the path toward the 0.6995 spike low and 0.6890
Reclaim of the 0.7050 pivot needed to negate the lower-highs structure
Australia CPI (24 Jun) is the key domestic catalyst and could materially shift this read
AUDUSD shed ~80 pips into the NY session midweek after the hawkish Fed flip, spiking to a 0.69946 low before a US-Iran de-risking bounce lifted price back toward 0.7037. That recovery has since stalled, printing lower highs and rolling back toward the 0.7000 handle, with price trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) capped in the low-40s.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.7000 opens the path to the 0.69946 swing low and 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.7050 pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst and could reset this read
AUDUSD broke lower after Wednesday's hawkish Fed, shedding ~80 pips into a 0.69946 spike low before clawing back to the 0.7000 handle. Price has since coiled between 0.7000 and the 0.7035 session high, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) sitting in the low 40s. Lower highs from the 0.70725 pre-FOMC level remain the dominant intraday structure.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7035, 0.7050, 0.70725
What it said to watch
Decisive H1 close below 0.7000 psych opens 0.69946 swing low and below
Reclaim of the 0.7050 pivot would break the lower-high sequence
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst and can reset this read
AUDUSD broke sharply lower through 0.7050 on Wednesday's hawkish FOMC hold, spiking to a 0.6995 low before a partial bounce. Price now coils around 0.7013 beneath EMA20 and EMA50, with lower highs capping into 0.7037 and RSI(14) subdued in the mid-40s. The 0.7000 handle has held repeated tests since the drop.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst that could shift this read
H1 close above 0.7050 pivot invalidates the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 opens the path back toward the 0.6995 swing low
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after impulse · RSI 44 · price 0.70159
Lower highs, basing above 0.7000.
AUD shed roughly 80 pips into the NY session as the Fed's hawkish flip drove the dollar bid, breaking the prior 0.7065-0.7080 base and spiking to 0.69946. Price has since clawed back to consolidate sub-0.7040, but a string of lower highs caps the bounce and 0.7000 has been retested twice. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) stuck mid-40s.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7040 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.7000 opens the path toward 0.6890
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst ahead
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after FOMC drop · RSI 44 · price 0.70159
Lower-highs, ranging above 0.7000.
AUDUSD broke sharply lower into the NY session post-FOMC, shedding ~80 pips and spiking to 0.69946 as the Fed flipped its 2026 path to a hike. Price has since clawed back to the 0.7000-0.7037 band but sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) capped in the mid-40s. The 0.7037 session high has rejected the recovery while the 0.7000 psych handle keeps absorbing dips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.7050 pivot would neutralise the lower-high structure
Decisive break of 0.7000 psych handle opens the path toward the 0.69946 spike low
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst into next week
AUDUSD broke down hard on yesterday's hawkish Fed flip, spiking sub-0.7000 to a 0.69946 week low before clawing back to 0.7035 on the softer USD and US-Iran de-risking. That recovery has since faded back toward 0.7000 with price sitting under both EMA(20) and EMA(50); each bounce this session has stalled into lower highs near 0.7035-0.7041.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7035, 0.70412
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.7000 confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.6890 area
Reclaim of 0.7035 then 0.7050 would neutralise the lower-high structure
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst and could reset this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after drop · RSI 44 · price 0.70175
Lower-highs, ranging above 0.7000 after impulsive break.
AUD/USD broke sharply lower into yesterday's NY session after the hawkish Fed flip, shedding ~80 pips through 0.7000 to a 0.69946 spike low. Price has since consolidated 0.7000–0.7037 with the spike low holding, but rallies keep stalling at lower highs and price trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) sits mid-40s, reflecting the muted bounce.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7045
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.70000 psych handle reopens the 0.69946 spike low
H1 close back above 0.70370 session high challenges the lower-highs structure
Australia CPI on 24 Jun is the key domestic catalyst that could shift this read
AUDUSD broke down hard on Wednesday's hawkish-hold Fed, slicing through 0.7050 to briefly under 0.7000 before US-Iran de-escalation aided a bounce back toward 0.7040. Since then NY hours have faded that recovery back to ~0.7020, leaving price under EMA20/EMA50 with a series of lower highs at 0.7041, 0.7037 and 0.7035. RSI(14) is mid-40s, reflecting a corrective bounce that has lost steam.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7035, 0.7040, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7050 pivot invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7000 psych handle reopens the 0.69946 swing low
HIGH-impact AU CPI Jun 24 01:30 UTC could materially reshape this read
Wednesday's hawkish-Fed flip drove the sharp H1 break through 0.7050 and briefly under 0.7000, leaving price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Since then a US-Iran de-escalation and softer USD have fuelled a grind back toward 0.7037, but each push has stalled and price has slipped back to 0.7020. Higher lows off 0.69946 keep the recovery intact while 0.7000 holds.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.7000 reopens the week low at 0.69946
Reclaim of 0.70370 session high would extend the recovery toward the 0.7050 pivot
AU CPI Jun 24 is the next high-impact test for this read
Lower highs since FOMC, consolidating above week low.
AUDUSD broke the 0.7050 weekly pivot during the hawkish Warsh FOMC reset, shedding ~80 pips to test 0.7000 and a 0.69946 low before clawing back. Price is now grinding just above the round number with RSI(14) recovering toward the midline, the US-Iran detente cushioning the downside. The recovery has stalled under a series of lower highs near 0.7040.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
A clean H1 close below 0.7000 opens the 0.6890 downside objective
Reclaim of the 0.7050 weekly pivot negates the lower-highs structure
Australian CPI on Jun 24 (01:30 UTC) is the next high-impact catalyst
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 44 · price 0.70241
Lower highs, recovery off week low.
AUDUSD was slammed roughly 80 pips lower through the 0.7050 pivot on Wednesday's hawkish-Warsh FOMC, printing a week low at 0.69946 before clawing back toward 0.7025. Price is grinding just above a recovering EMA20 but stays below EMA50, with the lower-highs structure from the 0.70879 week high still intact. The US-Iran detente capped USD strength and cushioned the slide, leaving the pair pinned between the 0.7000 psych handle and the reclaimed mid-range.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7050, 0.70879
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.7050 pivot would negate the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych opens 0.6890/0.6830
Australian CPI Jun 24 could materially shift this read
The Fed's hawkish Warsh hold drove AUDUSD ~80 pips lower through 0.7050 and briefly below the 0.7000 handle midweek. Two probes of 0.7000 (lows 0.69946 then 0.70006) held, and price has recovered to 0.7024, reclaiming EMA20 but still capped well below EMA50. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold but sits sub-50, consistent with corrective rather than impulsive recovery.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close below 0.7000 negates the double bottom and opens 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.7050 pivot needed to neutralise the post-FOMC drop
Australian Trimmed Mean CPI Jun 24 01:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near 0.7000 · RSI 47 · price 0.70241
Range break lower, basing 0.7000–0.7040.
AUD/USD lost its Monday-Wednesday 0.7060–0.7088 range when the hawkish Warsh FOMC flip dragged price ~80 pips through 0.7050 and briefly below 0.7000 into the NY session. Since then it has based twice around 0.7000 and recovered toward 0.7040, but lower highs are capping the bounce, leaving price wedged inside 0.7000–0.7040. RSI(14) has lifted off its post-drop low back toward the midline as the selling stalls.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.70751
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close below 0.7000 reopens 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.7040 needed to ease the downside pressure
US S&P Global PMIs Jun 23 and Australian CPI Jun 24 are the next catalysts for this read
Lower highs since the break, holding above 0.7000.
AUD/USD broke sharply lower after the hawkish Fed dot-plot flip, slicing ~80 pips through 0.7050 and briefly under 0.7000 in the NY session. Price has clawed back to the 0.7015 area but remains pinned below EMA20 and EMA50, with each bounce printing lower highs into 0.7041 then 0.7033. The 0.7000 handle has so far held as support after the post-FOMC washout.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70334, 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.70334 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.7000 opens the 0.6890 zone flagged by SocGen
AU Trimmed Mean CPI on Jun 24 is the next major catalyst for this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend since FOMC, attempting to stabilise · RSI 43 · price 0.70156
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.7040.
AUDUSD rolled over hard into the NY session after the Fed's hawkish dot-path flip, breaking the 0.7050 shelf and printing a low just under 0.7000 before a US-Iran risk-on bounce lifted it back to 0.7040. That recovery has since faded into a sequence of lower highs, with price now grinding the 0.7000 handle again and holding below both EMAs. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s, recovering from oversold but with no upside reclaim yet.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7041
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close below 0.7000 opens 0.6890
Reclaim of 0.7040 bounce high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (Jun 24) is the next major catalyst for this read
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, pressing lows · RSI 38 · price 0.70015
Lower highs since FOMC, testing 0.7000.
Price knifed through 0.7000 to 0.69946 during Wednesday's hawkish-Fed slide, then recovered toward 0.7040 on the US-Iran de-escalation USD softness. That bounce has since faded into a sequence of lower highs and price sits back on the 0.7000 handle, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) near 37 reflects the loss of upside momentum into the NY session.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close below 0.7000 opens the path toward the 0.69946 swing low
Reclaim of the 0.7050 pivot needed to ease the lower-highs structure
AU CPI on 24 Jun is the key near-term risk to this read
AUD/USD was knocked through 0.7000 to 0.69946 on Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut, then bounced to ~0.7040 as the US-Iran MoU drained the USD bid. That recovery has since faded under a string of lower highs and price is grinding back into the 0.7000 handle, holding well below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.69946 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6890 area
Reclaim of the 0.7050 pivot needed to ease the lower-highs structure
AU Trimmed Mean CPI 24 Jun is the key risk that could reset this read
Wednesday's hawkish Fed flip slammed AUD through the 0.7050 pivot and briefly below the 0.7000 psych handle to 0.69946 before a corrective bounce stalled near 0.70412. Since then price has carved lower highs through the NY session and is back testing the 0.7000 handle, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s, reflecting the corrective tone without an outright extreme.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70396, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.69946 confirms a lower low and reopens the week low
Reclaim of the 0.7050 pivot needed to neutralise the post-FOMC downtrend
AU Trimmed Mean CPI on Jun 24 is the key catalyst that could shift this read
AUDUSD broke hard through 0.7050 into the FOMC hawkish hold, tagging 0.69946 before a softer USD and the US-Iran de-escalation drove a corrective bounce to 0.70412. That recovery has faded against a string of lower highs and price is back retesting the 0.7000 handle, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) sub-40.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close below 0.7000 / 0.69946 confirms lower-low extension
Reclaim of 0.70412 recovery high needed to ease the bearish read
AU Trimmed Mean CPI (Jun 24) is the next major catalyst for this pair
AUDUSD broke down hard through 0.7050 on Wednesday's hawkish Fed dot-flip, spiking to a 0.69946 week low before a softer USD and US-Iran de-escalation funded a corrective bounce to the 0.7040 region. That recovery stalled at lower highs around 0.70334–0.70412 and price has since rolled back toward 0.7000, now trading below both EMA20 and EMA50. RSI sits in the low 40s, consistent with the corrective-within-downtrend read.
Support: 0.70071, 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70334, 0.70412
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.7000 opens deeper pullback toward the week low
Reclaim of 0.70412 session high needed to neutralise the lower-high structure
AU Trimmed Mean CPI Jun 24 01:30 UTC is the key test of the RBA path
AUDUSD broke down through the 0.7050 pivot on Wednesday's hawkish Fed dot-flip, with the NY session driving an ~80 pip leg that swept sub-0.7000 (low 0.69946) before clawing back to 0.70412. That recovery has since faded — price trades back at 0.70142, under both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI sub-50. The structure remains a sequence of lower highs capped beneath the broken pivot.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70225, 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.70500 would neutralise the lower-highs structure
Sustained loss of 0.7000 reopens the downside toward week low and below
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed today 12:30 GMT could shift USD and this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend after Fed-driven break · RSI 37 · price 0.70097
Lower highs, retesting 0.7000.
The hawkish Fed dot-plot flip slammed AUDUSD ~80 pips through 0.7050 to a sub-0.7000 low at 0.69946 on Wednesday. The corrective bounce to 0.7040 has faded under a series of lower highs through the NY session, and price is now back retesting the 0.7000 handle with RSI(14) sub-40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.69946 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 0.70412 needed to break the lower-highs structure
AU Trimmed Mean CPI (Jun 24) is the key event risk for this read
Lower highs since the 0.6995 break; range capped under 0.7040.
AUDUSD broke down ~80 pips through 0.7050 into a 0.69946 low on the hawkish Fed repricing, then a softer USD on the US-Iran de-escalation funded a corrective bounce to 0.70412. That recovery has stalled below EMA20 near 0.7028 and price is sliding back toward the 0.7000 handle with RSI under 50, leaving the bounce looking like a pullback within the broader break.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.70412
What it said to watch
Sustained loss of the 0.7000 psych handle opens the path back toward the 0.69946 swing low
Reclaim of EMA20 near 0.7028 and the 0.70412 bounce high would neutralize the bearish structure
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
AUDUSD was sliced lower in yesterday's NY session as Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut flipped the 2026 dot path to a hike; the pair cut through 0.7050 and briefly broke 0.7000 to 0.69946 before clawing back. Price has since based in the 0.7020-0.7041 zone but trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, leaving the recovery capped. The 0.69946 dip and reclaim of 0.7000 reads as a false break, but lower-high structure persists into the European session.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.70412 needed to extend the recovery off the FOMC low
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the 0.69946 swing low
AU Trimmed Mean CPI Jun 24 is the next high-impact catalyst for this read
Lower highs after sharp break, basing above 0.7000.
AUDUSD sliced through 0.7050 and spiked sub-0.7000 to 0.69946 after Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut flipped the USD higher, before clawing back into the low 0.703s. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with the bounce capping under 0.70412 — a series of lower highs since the break. The 0.7000 handle was tested and held on the spike, but recovery momentum has flattened with RSI cycling in the low 40s.
Support: 0.70058, 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the 0.69946 sweep low and SocGen 0.6890 objective
H1 close back above 0.70412 needed to challenge the broken 0.7050 level
AU Trimmed Mean CPI Jun 24 is the next high-impact catalyst for this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 45 · price 0.70377
AUDUSD spent Monday through Wednesday capped between 0.7045 and 0.7088 before the hawkish Warsh-led Fed sliced the pair ~80 pips through 0.7050 and into a sub-0.7000 session low at 0.69946. Price has since clawed back to the 0.7038 area, stalling around the 50% retracement of the FOMC drop near 0.7045. Recovery has carved a series of higher-lows but remains below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold toward the mid-40s.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7045, 0.7072, 0.70879
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.70720 (pre-fomc) needed to negate the lower-high structure
Failure to hold the recovery higher-lows reopens 0.70000 psych and the 0.69946 week low
AU PMIs (Jun 22) and HIGH-impact AU CPI (Jun 24) are the next domestic catalysts
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 45 · price 0.70377
Lower high then sharp break, bounce underway.
The hawkish Fed under Warsh torched AUD: price sliced through 0.7050 and swept sub-0.7000 to a 0.69946 low before clawing back to 0.7037. H1 sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with structure firmly lower after the break, though RSI has lifted off oversold as the recovery off 0.70058 builds a series of higher lows. The 0.70412 session high is the first cap on that bounce.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.7053
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.70530 needed to negate the post-FOMC lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 on a retest opens the 0.69946 sweep low and below
AU Trimmed Mean CPI Jun 24 01:30 UTC could materially reset this read
AUDUSD held a tight 0.706-0.708 band through Tuesday-Wednesday before breaking sharply lower into the NY session on the hawkish FOMC under Warsh, printing 0.69946 before a recovery bounce stalled at the 0.70412 recovery high. Price is now fading back toward 0.7030, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI sub-50. The 0.7000 psych level and the 0.69946 swing low frame the downside.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412
What it said to watch
Close below 0.7000 psych opens path to the 0.69946 swing low
Reclaim of 0.70412 recovery high needed to ease the breakdown read
Australian CPI (Jun 24) is a high-impact risk that could reshape this read
AUDUSD broke sharply lower into the NY session as Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut and the dot-plot flip lifted the USD, dropping price from the 0.7072 area to a 0.69946 session low. A corrective bounce has since stair-stepped back toward the 0.7035 region, but price remains below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold into the mid-40s. The 0.70412 intraday high caps the rebound while 0.7000 psych support held on the flush.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.70725
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.70412 would extend the bounce toward the 0.70725 pre-fomc shelf
Loss of 0.7000 psych / 0.69946 session low opens a deeper leg lower
US Jobless Claims & Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD-driven read
AUDUSD held a tight 0.7060–0.7075 band through Wednesday's NY session before the FOMC bar gutted it — hawkish Warsh and a hot US retail print drove a break that swept below 0.7000 to 0.69946 in the first hour of the reaction. Price has since clawed back to 0.70328, basing around 0.70140 but stalling under today's 0.70412 high, with the EMA20 near 0.7055 now capping overhead.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.7055, 0.70725
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.7055 ema20 needed to negate the FOMC break
Failure to hold 0.70000 psych reopens the 0.69946 week low and below
Australian CPI on Jun 24 01:30 UTC is the next high-impact driver
AUDUSD held a tight 0.7060-0.7080 band into mid-week before a hawkish Warsh-led FOMC and a higher dot plot triggered a sharp slide to 0.6995 during the NY session. Price has since clawed back to 0.7033 but trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold. The recovery has carved a series of higher lows off the 0.6995 base.
Support: 0.7013, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7072
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.7072 would negate the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych opens a deeper pullback
Australian CPI on Jun 24 could materially shift this read
Lower high then impulsive break, now corrective bounce.
AUDUSD broke hard out of its 0.7060-0.7075 range during the NY session as the hawkish FOMC under Warsh and a hot US retail sales print bid the dollar, spiking through 0.7000 to a 0.69946 low. Since then price has clawed back to 0.7040 but sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), keeping the structure corrective. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold to mid-40s as the bounce retests the underside of the broken range.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70725
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.70725 prior range would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych reopens the swing low at 0.69946
US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend the dollar move
Broke below week's range, recovering off 0.6995 low.
AUDUSD spent the week pinned in a tight 0.7060-0.7088 band before the hawkish Warsh FOMC and hot US retail sales drove a ~380 pip slide through 0.7000 into the NY session, tagging 0.6995. Price has since clawed back to 0.7040 in a stair-step recovery but trades below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI rebounding off oversold toward neutral. The 0.7000 psych zone is now the pivot — area to watch for whether the recovery holds or stalls.
Support: 0.70127, 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7055, 0.70879
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.70550 would ease the post-FOMC downside read
Failure to hold 0.70000 reopens the 0.6995 swing low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the USD bid
Range break lower, sweeping 0.7000 then recovering.
AUDUSD broke sharply lower into the NY session as Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut and hot US retail sales lifted the dollar, slicing through the 0.7065-0.7075 band that had held since Monday and sweeping the 0.7000 psych level to 0.69946. Price has since clawed back to 0.7036 but sits below a falling EMA20 (~0.7044) with RSI(14) recovering from oversold near 46. The corrective bounce is a retest of the broken range floor from below.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7044, 0.70725
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.7072 prior high would negate the FOMC range break
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych opens deeper pullback toward the 0.69946 swing low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed today 12:30 UTC could re-accelerate this move
03:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, retracing · RSI 44 · price 0.70358
Broke midweek range, lower high then sharp drop, now recovering.
AUDUSD held a tight 0.7050–0.7088 band through midweek before the hawkish Warsh FOMC and hot US retail sales triggered a sharp range break, slicing to a 0.69946 week low during NY hours. Price has since clawed back to 0.70358, recovering just over half the drop but still trading below EMA20 and EMA50 on H1. The 0.7000 psych level held on the spike and is acting as the pivot for the recovery.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7070, 0.70821
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.70700 needed to negate this week's lower-high structure
Loss of 0.70000 psych reopens the 0.69946 week low
US Jobless Claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend the post-FOMC USD bid
02:02 UTC
Downtrend after FOMC break · RSI 44 · price 0.7032
Broke this-week range, recovering off low.
AUDUSD held a 0.7045–0.7088 band most of the week before the hawkish FOMC presser and higher dot plot drove a sharp NY-session break, slamming the pair to a 0.69946 low. Price has since clawed back toward the broken 0.7050 pivot but trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with lower-highs intact through the week. The 0.7050 pivot is now the immediate area to watch on the bounce.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7050, 0.70879
What it said to watch
Sustained break below 0.7000 opens the path toward the 0.69946 low and lower
Reclaim of 0.7050 pivot would negate the post-FOMC break read
US Initial Jobless Claims today 12:30 UTC could extend or unwind USD strength
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 44 · price 0.7032
Range break lower, retracing.
AUDUSD broke sharply lower into the NY session after the hawkish FOMC repricing bid the USD, slicing through the 0.7050 pivot to print 0.6995 before grinding back to 0.7032. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold as price retraces roughly half the drop, but it trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with this-week's lower-highs intact. The 0.7050 pivot now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.7050 negates the range-break read
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the 0.6995 session low
Australia CPI Jun 24 is the next major catalyst for this pair
AUDUSD spent most of the week pinned in a 0.7060–0.7080 range before the hawkish FOMC and US retail sales beat triggered a sharp break lower, flushing to 0.6995. Price has since clawed back to 0.7025 but trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) lifting off oversold. The prior 0.7050 support now caps as overhead resistance.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70415, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.7050 needed to negate the downside break
Hourly close below 0.7000 confirms a fresh lower low toward 0.6995
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could re-drive the USD leg
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 41 · price 0.70246
Lower highs, breakdown below 0.7050 then sweep of 0.7000.
AUDUSD ground out lower highs all week before the hawkish Fed hold under Warsh forced a sharp leg down, slicing the 0.7050 breakdown level and sweeping the 0.7000 psych line to a 0.69946 fomc low. Price has since clawed back above 0.7000 into 0.70246, but sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) lifting off oversold near 40. The 0.70313 session high caps the early recovery.
Support: 0.70068, 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70313, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.70500 breakdown would negate the lower-high structure
Failure to hold the 0.7000 psych line reopens the 0.69946 fomc low
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could re-energise the USD leg
AUDUSD ground sideways around 0.7060-0.7075 for most of the week before a hawkish FOMC dot-plot shift slammed it ~80 pips lower into the NY session, tagging 0.69946 before a shallow bounce to 0.7022. Price is well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) coming off oversold, and the 0.7000 psych level is now the magnet flagged by the macro read. The 0.7050 prior support has flipped to immediate overhead resistance.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.70415, 0.7050, 0.70697
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 0.7000 opens the undershoot toward 0.69946 and lower
Reclaim of 0.7050 would negate the breakdown and lower-highs structure
US Initial Jobless Claims / Philly Fed (Thu 12:30 UTC) is the next USD-side catalyst
AUDUSD spent most of the week pinned in a 0.7050-0.7088 band before a sharp NY-session drop following the hawkish FOMC dot-plot repricing, tagging 0.6995 and shedding the entire range floor in two bars. Price has since stabilised near 0.7020 but trades well below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) collapsed into the low 30s. The 0.7050 prior floor is now overhead resistance, with 0.7000 the immediate magnet below.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69946
Resistance: 0.7050, 0.7075, 0.70879
What it said to watch
Hold below 0.7000 confirms continuation toward the prior session low
Reclaim of 0.7050 range floor would negate the breakdown
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed (Thu 12:30 UTC) could extend or unwind the USD leg