21:05 UTC
Downtrend from September high, stalling into a base · RSI 56 · price 0.70059
LH/LL since the 0.7237 Sep high; three-week range 0.6894–0.7017 now being tested at the top.
AUDUSD has carried a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the 0.7237 September high, and the falling EMA(50) on D1 near 0.7040 still sits just above price. The last three weeks built a base between the 0.6894 swing low and the 0.7017 range top. The Oct 14 retest held within ten pips of the late-September low, giving a double bottom outline. Hawkish RBA repricing and a softer USD lifted the pair four sessions straight, through the sept downtrend line and into the range top, with the 38.2% retracement of the Sep–Oct decline at 0.7025 directly overhead.
Support: 0.6990, 0.6894, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.7040, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- D1 close above the 0.7017 range top completes the double bottom and opens a path to the 0.7040 ema50 and the 50% retracement at 0.7066
- A move back below the 0.6990 ema20 returns price to the middle of the range and weakens the base read
- A break of the 0.6894 swing low negates the double bottom and exposes the 0.6865 june low
- Recovery of 0.7140, the sept pivot where mid-September consolidation broke down, would end the lower-high sequence
- RBA Governor Bullock (Oct 23) and Australian Q3 CPI (Oct 28) could decide whether the hawkish repricing behind this rally holds
- US flash PMIs (Oct 23) are a risk to the soft-USD leg ahead of next week's Fed meeting