21:06 UTC
September downtrend, early-stage rebound · RSI 53 · price 0.7018
Lower highs and lows from the 0.7237 Sep high; double bottom near 0.6900 with the 0.7013 neckline cleared.
AUDUSD has corrected since the 0.7237 Sep high, printing lower highs and lower lows into an early-October double bottom at 0.6903/0.6894, the oct low. This week's four-session rebound came on hawkish RBA repricing after Hauser's inflation warning and a softer USD. It reclaimed the 0.7000 round number, closed above the 0.7013 neckline and broke the lower-high line, and Thursday's dip back toward 0.7000 is a first retest. Overhead, the oct high at 0.7036 and the still-falling ema50 near 0.7055 cluster at the 38.2% retracement of the Sep–Oct drop, so the swing trend filter has not yet turned.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6894, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7055, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- A daily close back below the 0.7000 round number undermines the double bottom breakout; losing the 0.6894 oct low would resume the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6865 june low
- A daily close above the 0.7036 oct high and the ema50 near 0.7055 opens the 50% retracement at 0.7066 and the 61.8% near 0.7106
- AU flash PMIs tonight and RBA Gov. Bullock on Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read, as could US flash PMIs later Friday
- Bullock and Q3 CPI on Oct 28, followed by next week's Fed decision, are the larger tests for the rebound
- Middle East and oil-driven risk-off is the main override to the rate-driven support