21:05 UTC
Transitioning: Sept downtrend stalling, base forming · RSI 51 · price 0.70359
Double bottom near 0.6900, neckline 0.7013 cleared.
The July–September advance peaked at the 0.7237 Sept high on Sep 9. A five-week lower-high/lower-low decline followed and found a floor twice near 0.6900, on Oct 1 and at the 0.6894 Oct low on Oct 15. Last week's +1.2% rally, driven by hawkish RBA repricing and a softer USD, carried price through the 0.7013 neckline and the Sept downtrend line, back above EMA(20) and fractionally above a flattening EMA(50) at 0.7028. The next cap is the 50% fib of the Sept–Oct decline at 0.7066, which sits alongside the SMA cluster near 0.7070; RSI near 51 shows momentum has only reset to neutral.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7013, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7066, 0.7140, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7066 fib 50% opens the 0.7140 lower high, with the 0.7237 Sept high beyond
- Close back below the 0.7013 neckline undercuts the double bottom and re-exposes the 0.6894 Oct low
- Repeated daily closes under EMA(50) at 0.7028 would show the swing filter has not turned
- AU Q3 CPI (Wed 00:30 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read