Failed push above Friday high, lower high then session low.
The weekly open gapped about 9 pips below the 0.70359 Friday close. Early Asia session price filled the gap and briefly took out the 0.70379 Friday high, but the push stalled at the 0.70393 session high. The rejection unwound the whole move to a 0.70254 session low, with price now below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.70254, 0.70221, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.70379, 0.70393
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.70359 Friday close would neutralise the rejection read
Failure to hold the 0.70254 session low opens Friday's 0.70221 swing low, then the 0.7000 psych level
Renewed acceptance above the Friday high and 0.70393 session high turns the move from a false break into a breakout
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, then AU Q3 CPI and the FOMC on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed push to new high · RSI 36 · price 0.70267
Weekly-open gap filled, false break above Friday high, sharp reversal to open.
The Sunday open gapped about 9 pips below the 0.7036 Friday close. Price filled the gap and briefly cleared the 0.7038 Friday high to a 0.7039 session high, then three bars of selling took it back to the session low near 0.7025. That leaves price at the 38.2% retracement of Friday's rally, below both EMAs in thin early Asia trade, with AUD still carried by RBA hike repricing into the week.
Support: 0.70254, 0.70221
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.70379, 0.70393
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7025 session low extends the drop toward the 0.7022 swing low from Friday NY
Recovery back above the 0.7036 Friday close would neutralise the false break and put the 0.7038 Friday high and 0.7039 session high back in play
Holding the 38.2% retracement near 0.7026 keeps Friday's rally structure intact
AU Q3 CPI (Wed 00:30 UTC) and Wednesday's FOMC are the next scheduled catalysts
23:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling after a rejection at the highs · RSI 37 · price 0.70291
Friday's HH/HL chain capped by a false break above the Friday high on the Asia open.
Friday's rally from 0.7004 ran on RBA hike repricing despite firm US PMIs. Monday's thin early-Asia open gapped down to 0.7027, filled the gap and printed a sweep high at 0.70393, just above Friday's 0.70379 top. That false break was rejected back to 0.7029, putting price below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.7027, 0.70221, 0.70044
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.70393
What it said to watch
Closes back above the 0.7036 fri close would negate the rejection and put the 0.70393 sweep high back in play
Loss of the 0.7027 gap open (38.2% of the Friday rally fib) exposes the 0.7022 swing low, then the 0.7004 friday low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; AU CPI and FOMC on Wednesday are the main event risk for the range
23:03 UTC
Uptrend from Friday's 0.7004 low, stalling at the highs · RSI 45 · price 0.70337
Weekend gap filled; marginal new session high above Friday high rejected.
Early Asia session opened on a ~9-pip gap lower to the 0.7027 gap low and filled it within two bars. Price then pushed to a 0.70393 session high, just above the 0.70379 Friday high, before an outside rejection bar returned it to the 0.7034 asia base. That base sits inside Friday's higher-low line, built on the RBA-repricing rally that US PMIs capped.
Support: 0.70337, 0.7027, 0.70221
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.70393, 0.7045
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.70393 session high negates the false break and brings uob resist at 0.7045 into view
Loss of the 0.7034 asia base and the 0.7027 gap low breaks Friday's higher-low line
0.7022 swing low lines up with the 50% of the friday rally fib; a break there unwinds half the move
Thin Asia session liquidity; AU Q3 CPI and Bullock on Wed are the next major catalysts
22:46 UTC
Uptrend, pushing to new highs in thin open · RSI 57 · price 0.70391
Weekly-open gap filled, Friday high broken, higher lows intact.
The weekly open gapped about 9 pips lower to 0.7027, but the gap filled inside the first hour of the Asia session. Price has since cleared the Friday high at 0.70379 to a session high at 0.70392, extending Friday's upleg from 0.70044 on hawkish RBA repricing. ATR is compressed under 3 pips in thin early trade, with the 0.7045 resist zone (UOB 0.7045-0.7070) the next cap above.
Support: 0.70379, 0.70337, 0.7027
Resistance: 0.70392, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.70379 Friday high, followed by loss of the 0.70337 pullback low, turns the breakout into a false break
A move through the 0.70392 session high into the 0.7045 resist zone tests the lower edge of UOB's 0.7045-0.7070 band
A return to the 0.7027 weekly open sits near the 38.2% retracement of the Friday upleg; a break below it erodes the higher-low sequence
Thin Asia liquidity ahead of Wed's Q3 CPI and FOMC can exaggerate small moves
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at weekly open · RSI 53 · price 0.70371
Higher lows from 0.7004; weekend gap filled, marginal new high.
The week opened with a 9-pip gap down to 0.7027, which filled within the first hour. That extended Friday's NY-session higher-low chain, part of the leg from 0.7004 built on hawkish RBA repricing, to a 0.70387 session high. RSI(14) near 53 and ATR under 3 pips reflect thin early-Asia trade, with price holding above the rising trendline and the 0.70337 intraday low.
Support: 0.70337, 0.7027, 0.70221
Resistance: 0.70387, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.70387 session high and 0.7040 round number extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 0.70337 intraday low puts the 0.7027 gap low back in focus
Break of the 0.70221 swing low and the rising trendline voids the higher-low structure
AU CPI and FOMC on Wednesday are the week's main event risk; liquidity stays thin through the Asia session
22:17 UTC
Uptrend from Friday's London low, stalling at the highs · RSI 49 · price 0.70343
Friday HH/HL chain intact; Sunday gap down filled, new high rejected.
On hawkish RBA repricing, Friday climbed in higher lows from the 0.7011 London low, cleared the 0.7024 Asian range high and topped at 0.7038 late in NY hours. Sunday's open gapped down to the 0.7027 gap low and filled within two bars. The poke to the 0.7039 Sunday high was rejected straight back to 0.7034 in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.7027, 0.70232, 0.70113
Resistance: 0.70387, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 gap low (38.2% fib of the London low–Friday high leg) breaks the Friday higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.7023 NY swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.7022 and the 0.7011 London low
Acceptance above the 0.7039 Sunday high turns the false break into a breakout toward UOB resistance at 0.7045
No events in the next 8h; AU CPI (Wed 00:30 UTC) and the FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the scheduled catalysts that could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing Friday high · RSI 58 · price 0.70378
Higher lows since Friday's Asia low; weekly open gap filled.
The weekly open gapped about 9 pips lower to the 0.7027 gap low. The gap filled within the first hour of thin early-Asia trade, and price is now back at the 0.7038 Friday high. Friday's higher-low trendline from the 0.7004 Asian low is intact, with RSI(14) in the high 50s and no extreme.
Support: 0.7034, 0.7027, 0.7022
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7045
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7038 Friday high brings the 0.7045-0.7070 resist zone into play
Rejection at 0.7038 followed by a loss of the 0.7034 open range floor would turn the gap fill into a false break
A break below the 0.7027 gap low and the trendline near 0.7022 ends the higher-low sequence
Sunday liquidity is thin. Wednesday's AU Q3 CPI and the FOMC decision are the main scheduled risks to this structure
Higher lows from 0.7004; Monday gap almost filled.
Friday stepped higher from the 0.7004 Asian low to a 0.70379 Friday high. The dip to 0.7022 on the US PMI beat was bought during NY hours as RBA hike repricing held AUD firm. Monday opened with a gap down to the 0.7027 gap low and has nearly filled it back to 0.7035 in thin early Asia trade; RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7022, 0.7004
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 gap low leaves the gap open and puts the 0.7022 pmi dip low in play
Clearance of the 0.70379 Friday high opens the 0.7045 uob cap
Failure to hold the 0.7022 pmi dip low breaks the Friday higher-low chain toward the 38.2% fib
No calendar events in the next 8h; AU CPI Wed 00:30 UTC and the FOMC later Wed are the scheduled shift risks
Friday HH/HL chain to 0.70379; Monday gap low held above prior higher low.
Monday's Asia open gapped about 9 pips lower to a 0.70270 gap low. That low held at Friday's last higher low and above the 38.2% fib of Friday's rally, and price has since recovered to 0.7034, just under the 0.70359 friday close. Friday's London and NY sessions built a clean HH/HL chain from 0.70044 to the 0.70379 friday high as AUD stayed firm on RBA hike repricing; RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 0.7027, 0.70221
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.70379
What it said to watch
A move through the 0.70359 friday close fills the gap; an M15 close above the 0.70379 friday high extends the HH/HL sequence
A break of the 0.70270 gap low, then the 0.70221 swing low, ends Friday's higher-low chain and opens the 50% fib near 0.7021
Thin early Asia liquidity can exaggerate moves; Tuesday's US data and Wednesday's AU CPI and FOMC are the larger scheduled risks this week
21:16 UTC
Friday uptrend interrupted by a weekend gap down · RSI 44 · price 0.70315
Higher-low chain from 0.70044, gap below Friday close.
The week opened with a 9-pip gap below the 0.70359 Friday close. The gap low at 0.7027 held just under Friday's last higher low, and price has recovered to 0.7031, back inside the gap and near the 23.6% fib of the Friday rally. That rally ran from 0.70044 to the 0.70379 Friday high on RBA hike repricing, building higher lows through NY, including the 0.70221 swing low, before firm US PMIs capped it.
Support: 0.7027, 0.70221
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.70379
What it said to watch
A fill of the gap to the 0.70359 Friday close keeps the higher-low chain intact; a break of the 0.70379 Friday high extends it
Loss of the 0.7027 gap low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.70221 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Thin pre-Asia liquidity at the week open; oil and Middle East headlines could distort early price action
21:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening into the close · RSI 60 · price 0.70359
NY breakout above Asian range; higher lows at 0.7022, 0.7028 and 0.7033.
London stayed inside the 0.7004–0.7024 Asian range. NY then broke the Asian high at 0.7024, with RBA hike repricing behind AUD, and printed higher lows up to a 0.70379 day high. The week closed at 0.7036 after a shallow late-session dip to a late low at 0.70334, still above rising support and the fib 38.2 at 0.7028.
Support: 0.70334, 0.70277, 0.70241
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.7045
What it said to watch
Sunday reopen may gap away from the 0.7036 close; the first bars decide whether the late low at 0.70334 holds
A close back below the fib 38.2 at 0.7028 breaks the higher-low chain and rising support; the Asian high at 0.7024 sits beneath
A move through the 0.70379 day high puts the 0.7045–0.7070 res zone in play
AU Q3 CPI (Wed 00:30 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read