Double bottom at 0.6894-0.6903 broken above the 0.7013 neckline; higher lows since 0.6894.
AUDUSD carved a double bottom at 0.6903/0.6894 and has since built higher lows, clearing the 0.7013 neckline as hawkish RBA repricing after Hauser and a softer USD lifted the pair back over 0.70. The pullback from the 0.7036 oct high held at the 0.6994 swing low, close to the 23.6% retracement of the 0.6894-0.7036 leg, and EMA20 sits above EMA50 after the rally. ATR(14) has eased to around 18 pips, so the range is compressing just under the 0.7042 window high.
Support: 0.7013, 0.6994, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6994 swing low would undercut the neckline retest and expose the 0.6936 higher low
Close above the 0.7036 oct high and the 0.7042 window high would extend the higher-high sequence
RBA Gov. Bullock speech Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift hike pricing and this read
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are the next USD test
Middle East/oil risk-off would pressure the neckline regardless of RBA tone
Higher lows since 0.6894; shallow pullback holding 0.70 handle.
AUDUSD has printed higher lows since the 0.6894 3-week low. The rebound came on hawkish RBA repricing after Hauser's inflation warning and a softer USD, and the advance stalled at the 0.7036 recent high, just short of the 0.7042 prior high from the start of the window. The pullback found demand at the 0.6994 pullback low, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the rally and on the rising higher-low trendline, and price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50 with the 20 over the 50. ATR(14) near 18 pips is compressed versus the mid-month selloff, so the 0.7036–0.7042 cap is the level that has been tested and is the next decision point.
Support: 0.6994, 0.6950, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7036 recent high and 0.7042 prior high extends the higher-high sequence
H4 close below the 0.6994 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and the 0.70 handle
Loss of the 0.6950 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) would put the 0.6894 3-week low back in focus
AU flash PMIs tonight 22:00 UTC and Bullock's speech Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift RBA hike pricing
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC are the USD-side risk
13:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 56 · price 0.70071
Double bottom 0.6903/0.6894, neckline break now retesting.
AUDUSD carved a double bottom at 0.6903/0.6894 and cleared the 0.7013 neckline in a rally to the 0.7036 swing high. Hawkish RBA repricing after Hauser's inflation warning and a soft USD drove the move. Three bars of pullback have taken price back under the neckline and onto the 0.7000 round number, just below EMA20, while EMA20 still sits above EMA50. ATR(14) near 18 pips is well down from the early-window selloff, so this is a contained retest rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69818, 0.69482
Resistance: 0.70126, 0.70361, 0.70423
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 38.2% fib at 0.6982 undercuts the neckline breakout and opens the 61.8% fib near 0.6948
Close back above the 0.7036 swing high and 0.7042 window high would extend the higher-high sequence toward 0.7070
Australian flash PMIs at 22:00 UTC and Bullock on Fri could reprice RBA hike odds and shift the 0.7000 retest
US Services/Manufacturing PMIs and UoM inflation expectations on Fri at 13:45/14:00 UTC are a USD rebound risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6894 low; double bottom with 0.6903.
The 0.6903 and 0.6894 lows form a double bottom. Price has since made higher highs and higher lows, cleared the 0.7013 neckline on RBA hike repricing and the soft US housing data, and held EMA20 above EMA50. The advance stalled at the 0.7036 swing high, just under the 0.7042 window high and at the 0.7030-0.7035 cap flagged in the digest. Price is now retesting the neckline area with EMA20 near 0.7003 and the 0.7000 psych level just below. ATR(14) has compressed to around 18 pips from 25+ during the early-month selloff.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6982, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.7013, 0.7036, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 0.7000 psych and the 38.2% fib at 0.6982 would test the higher-low line near 0.6990 and weaken the double bottom read
Loss of the 0.6936 higher low would break the swing sequence off the 0.6894 low
H4 close above the 0.7036 swing high and 0.7042 window high would extend the higher-high sequence
AU flash PMIs tonight 22:00 UTC and Bullock on Oct 23 could test the neckline; AU Q3 CPI on Oct 28 is the larger structural catalyst
US PMIs Friday and the FOMC next week could shift USD and the 0.7036 cap
05:04 UTC
Uptrend off a double bottom, momentum fading at highs · RSI 61 · price 0.70119
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6894 low; neckline break at 0.7013 now being retested.
A double bottom formed at 0.6903 and 0.6894, and the RBA-driven hawkish repricing carried price through the 0.7013 neckline to a 0.7036 swing high, with EMA20 holding above EMA50 through the rally. The latest bar slipped back to the neckline. Price is now probing the 0.7000 psych handle, which coincides with the rising trendline and sits just above the 38.2% fib at 0.6982. ATR(14) has compressed to about 17 pips from the mid-October expansion, so the advance is losing pace below the window high at 0.7045.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6982, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.7000 psych and the rising trendline would mark the neckline break as a false break and expose the 38.2% fib at 0.6982, then the ema50 near 0.6970
H4 close above the 0.7036 swing high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 0.7045 window high
Australian flash PMIs (22:00 UTC) and Bullock's speech (Oct 23, 10:00 UTC) could reprice RBA hike odds and shift this read
Iran headlines and US Jobless Claims driving a safe-haven USD bid could cap AUDUSD near the swing high
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.6894 low; double bottom neckline at 0.7013 broken.
A double bottom at 0.6903/0.6894 completed with the break above the 0.7013 neckline, after hawkish RBA repricing lifted AUD to three-week highs. Price has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6936 higher low, and EMA20 has crossed above EMA50. ATR(14) near 16 pips sits well below the early-window swings, so the advance is orderly rather than expanding, and price is stalling just under the 0.7036 window high with the 0.7045 prior high above.
Support: 0.7013, 0.7000, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.7013 neckline would turn the breakout into a false break, with the 0.7000 round number next
A close above the 0.7036 window high opens the 0.7045 prior high at the top of the window
Break of the rally trendline and the 0.6982 38.2% rally fib would expose the 0.6936 higher low and weaken the double bottom read
AU Flash PMIs at 22:00 UTC and Bullock on Oct 23 test the RBA hike premium behind the four-day run
US jobless claims Thursday and US flash PMIs Friday could revive USD and shift this read