AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 24 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near 0.7000 · RSI 27 · price 0.70122
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237 top.
AUDUSD has printed a clean lower-high sequence from 0.7237 through 0.7187 and the 0.7140 lower high, with a lower-high trendline capping every bounce and lows stepping down from 0.7108 to 0.7074 and now the 0.7006 swing low. The pair lost the 0.7100 handle midweek as soft AU flash PMIs met a yield-driven USD bid. Today's mixed jobs data, with a headline beat but unemployment up to 4.6%, did not lift it. Price is now grinding in a tight 0.7005–0.7045 band just above the 0.7000 psych level, with RSI oversold, both EMAs overhead and ATR(14) near 21 pips.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 0.7006 swing low
Recovery above the 0.7045 bounce high and then the 0.7074 prior low (near the 50% fib) would mark the first break of the lower-high rhythm
Lower-high trendline and the 0.7140 lower high remain the structural cap on the downtrend
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 (+25bp to 4.60% consensus) and AU CPI Wed could materially shift this read
US durable goods, UoM inflation expectations and Fed speakers Fri are the near-term USD risk
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new lows · RSI 24 · price 0.70106
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; the 0.7105-0.7140 range broke lower.
Price has printed a sequence of lower highs (0.7237, 0.7187, 0.7149, 0.7140) since mid-month, and this week it broke the multi-day range floor near the 0.7074 prior low. The break came as soft Australian flash PMIs met a hawkish-Fed repricing and US yields above 5%. Price is now pressing a fresh swing low just above the 0.7000 psych level, with RSI oversold and ATR(14) expanding to around 20 pips as the leg extends.
Support: 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 0.7000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 0.7045 bounce high and then the 0.7074 prior low would put price back inside the broken range
A break above the descending lower-high trendline near 0.7140 invalidates the downtrend read
US durables and UoM inflation expectations Fri could shift the read, as could the RBA decision Tue Sep 29 (consensus +25bp)
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 26 · price 0.70267
Lower highs since 0.7237; stalling above 0.7017 swing low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.7237 early-month peak, and the 0.7075–0.7140 range gave way this week. Soft Australian flash PMIs and US yields above 5% drove the break. Price is now holding a tight 0.7017–0.7045 band: the swing low sits below and the range cap above, with RSI oversold and ATR(14) easing back to about 21 pips after the expansion. Price is below both EMAs and EMA20 is under EMA50, so the lower-high sequence along the trendline from 0.7237 remains intact.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7045, 0.7092, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7017 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7000 round number
Recovery above the 0.7045 range cap opens a retrace toward the 0.7092 prior low, which is also the 61.8% fib of the 0.7140–0.7017 drop
A break above the 0.7140 lower high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
RBA decision on Sep 29: a hold versus the consensus 25bp hike could materially shift this read
Fedspeak (Paulson today, Williams Fri) and Friday's Durable Goods, via US yields, are the main near-term USD driver
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 top; range break below 0.7074.
Lower-high sequence from the 0.7237 top (0.7187, 0.7140) has capped every recovery, and the week-long 0.7090–0.7140 range gave way after the hot US PMIs and rising US yields lifted the USD. Price cut through the prior low at 0.7074 to a new swing low at 0.7017 and is now holding just above the 0.7000 psych level, with EMA20 below EMA50 and RSI in oversold territory. ATR(14) has expanded to about 22 pips on the break, which fits a trend extending rather than compressing.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70744, 0.7101, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7074 prior low would mark the break as a potential false break
A recovery into the fib 38.2 near 0.7101 is the first test of the lower-high structure; a close above 0.7140 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
Sustained trade below the 0.7017 swing low and the 0.7000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims today 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson remarks could shift the USD-yield driver
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 04:30 UTC: a hold or a dovish hike could pressure the 0.7000 area
Lower highs have stepped down from the 0.7237 peak through 0.7187 and the 0.7140 lower high, with a descending trendline capping each rally. Price broke out of the 0.7092–0.7140 consolidation this week after weak Australian flash PMIs and blowout US PMIs lifted the USD. The drop took out the 0.7074 prior low and has stalled between the 0.7017 swing low and the 0.7043 bounce high, with RSI oversold and ATR(14) expanding to about 21 pips.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7074, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7074 prior low would mark the range break as a false break and put the 61.8% fib near 0.7093 in play
Failure to hold the 0.7017 swing low exposes the 0.7000 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
Descending trendline near 0.7127 and the 0.7140 lower high cap the structure; a close above both invalidates the lower-high read
Trump-Xi summit headlines and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) today; RBA decision Sep 29 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 swing high; range floor broken.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs from the 0.7237 swing high, with each rally capped under a descending trendline, and the week's 0.7092–0.7140 range gave way mid-week as soft Australian flash PMIs met blowout US PMIs and a US yield surge. The drop cleared the prior low at 0.7074 and set a fresh swing low at 0.7025, with price holding well below both EMAs and ATR(14) expanding to around 20 pips. RSI near 30 reflects stretched downside momentum. The 0.7000 psych level is the next reference below.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70744, 0.70919, 0.7140
What it said to watch
AU August jobs at 01:30 GMT: a second job loss or unemployment at 4.6%+ could extend the move beyond the swing low toward 0.7000 psych
H4 closes back above the prior low at 0.7074 and the range floor near 0.7092 would weaken the range break read
The 38.2% fib near 0.7106 and the lower highs trendline around the 0.7140 range top cap any rebound structurally
Fedspeak and US Jobless Claims today could shift the US-yield driver behind the move