Lower highs from London high, flat base at 0.7006-0.7007.
AUDUSD has carved lower highs since the 0.70447 London high. The US new home sales beat and firmer yields drove a NY-session slide to a 0.70055 day low, and a spike to 0.70327 during NY hours met rejection and was fully reversed. Since the NY close price has compressed in a 0.7007–0.7013 band under the range top, with ATR(14) under 3 pips as the Asia session opens.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70135, 0.70186, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70055 day low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Close above the 0.70135 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 0.70186 lower high is the next reference
Recovery through the 0.70327 spike high would negate the NY-session downtrend read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables/UoM later Friday could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.70085
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; tight Asian range above the swing low.
AUD slid from the 0.7045 London session high as strong US data, hawkish Fedspeak and 5%+ yields lifted USD. The NY spike high at 0.7033 faded into a 0.70055 swing low. Early Asia session is compressing between 0.7008 and the 0.7013 Asian high, and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70133, 0.70186, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70055 swing low extends the lower-low chain and exposes 0.7000 psych
M15 close above the 0.70186 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2% fib near 0.7020 in play
Rejection at the 0.7013 Asian high keeps the downtrend intact; the descending lower-highs line sits near 0.7023
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durable goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 0.7033 spike high would neutralise the NY-session selloff
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in post-NY range · RSI 43 · price 0.70097
Lower highs from 0.7045; tight 0.7006–0.7013 box after NY close.
London's poke above the Asian high to 0.7045 was rejected. NY then broke the 0.7017 Asian low as US data beats and the 5.085% 7-year auction lifted yields, and the 16:15 UTC spike to 0.7033 faded fully, leaving a chain of lower highs. Price is now boxed between the 0.7006 NY low and the 0.7013 range top, just above 0.7000 psych, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7013, 0.70186, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7006 NY low puts 0.7000 psych, the 200-DMA-area support in the AUD digest, directly in play
Close above the 0.7013 range top and the 0.7019 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Recovery through the 0.7033 spike high negates the NY downtrend read
Trump-Xi headlines during Asia, then Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.70095
Lower highs from the London open high; post-NY consolidation 0.7006–0.7019.
Lower highs have stepped down from the 0.7045 london high, and NY broke under 0.7020 as yield-driven USD strength extended. The 16:15 UTC spike high at 0.7031 was rejected and the pair printed the ny low at 0.7006. It is now compressing in a thin 0.7006–0.7019 range top band just above 0.7000 psych, with ATR(14) contracted to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.70312, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7006 ny low exposes 0.7000 psych
Close above the 0.7019 range top breaks the post-NY compression; the 0.7031 spike high and the descending trendline sit above
Fib 38.2% of the london high–ny low leg at ~0.7021 lines up with the range top area
Trump-Xi headlines during the thin Asia session could move this read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday are the next scheduled USD risk
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.70122
Lower highs from London open; tight 0.7006–0.7019 range after NY.
AUD/USD has bled lower from the 0.7045 London high as the USD bid extended on hawkish Fedspeak and US data beats. A NY spike to 0.7031 was rejected at the 61.8% fib of the drop and fully retraced. Since 18:00 UTC price has been pinned in a thin 0.7006–0.7019 range, with the session low at 0.7006 tested three times and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.70327, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7006 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close above the 0.7019 range top reopens the 0.7031 NY spike high near the 61.8% fib
London high at 0.7045 caps the day's lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 0.70112
Lower highs from 0.7045; tight base 0.7007–0.7016 above 0.7000.
London faded a false break of the Asian high to 0.7045. NY then broke the Asian low at 0.7017 and printed a 0.70055 swing low as claims and new home sales beats lifted the USD, and the 0.7033 lower high was fully rejected. Post-NY trade is compressing 0.7007–0.7016 into the new Asia session, under the descending trendline and just above 0.7000 psych.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7017 asian low would put the 0.7033 lower high and descending trendline back in play
Failure to hold the 0.70055 swing low exposes 0.7000 psych
Trump-Xi headlines during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday are the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from London open; tight post-NY range 0.7006–0.7017.
London open briefly pushed above the Asian high to 0.7045, then reversed into a descending trendline of lower highs. During NY hours, USD strength on data beats and hawkish Fedspeak took out the Asian low at 0.7017 for a session low at 0.7006, and the rebound to the 0.7031 spike high met rejection near the 61.8% fib of the decline. Price is now compressing just under the old Asian low in thin post-NY trade, RSI(14) 42, ATR about 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.70312
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7017 (old Asian low) breaks the lower-high chain and targets the 38.2% fib near 0.7020
Failure to hold the 0.7006 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
Only a push through 0.7031 spike high clears the descending trendline
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and US durables 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high; tight base 0.7007–0.7017 after NY close.
AUDUSD faded from the London high at 0.7045 and broke the Asian low at 0.7017 during NY hours as US data beats and hawkish Fed talk lifted the dollar. The 16:15 UTC spike to 0.7031 was sold into a day low of 0.70055. After NY close, price is compressing between the 0.7007 base low and 0.7017 below EMA20/EMA50, with lower highs intact, RSI(14) at 45 and ATR near 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.7007, 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.7031, 0.7045
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.70055 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.7000 psych
A reclaim of the 0.7017 asian low breaks the lower-highs chain and reopens the 0.7031 spike high
Repeated holds at the 0.7007 base low keep the post-NY range read in play
Trump-Xi headlines during the Asia session could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing near day low · RSI 48 · price 0.70129
Lower highs capping, lows flattening near 0.7006.
AUD/USD faded from the 0.7045 London high and extended lower in NY as US claims and home-sales beats kept USD bid. The 16:15 UTC pop to the 0.7032 spike high was rejected and fully reversed to a 0.70055 day low. Price is now basing just above 0.7000 psych into the Asia session, with lower highs at 0.7016–0.7019 capped beneath the prior Asia low and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70175, 0.7032
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7018 Asia low breaks the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% retrace of the London high–day low drop sits near 0.7020
Loss of the 0.70055 day low puts 0.7000 psych in play
Spike high at 0.7032 marks the top of the NY range; only a reclaim changes the downtrend read
Thin early Asia liquidity; Trump-Xi headlines are the near-term risk to this read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.70113
Lower highs from the London high, flat floor near 0.7006.
The London high at 0.7045 was rejected. NY then broke the 0.7023 prior floor and slid to a 0.7006 session low as hawkish Fedspeak and US data beats kept USD bid. The NY spike high at 0.7033 was fully sold, and price is now basing in a 0.7006–0.7019 band under the lower-highs line into the Asia handover, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.7023, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7006 session low exposes the 0.7000 round number
Close above the 0.7019 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.7023 prior floor back into play
Recovery through the 0.7033 spike high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Trump-Xi meeting headlines during Asia could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.70096
Lower highs from London high; lows compressing above 0.7000.
London high at 0.7045 was rejected and the Asian range low near 0.7017 gave way in NY. A beat on US claims and new home sales, plus hawkish Fed speakers, extended the USD bid, and the 0.7031 spike high faded within the hour. Late in the NY session, price is capped by a lower-high line near 0.7011–0.7016 and is sitting just above the 0.70055 day low, with 0.7000 psych below.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7016, 0.70312, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7016 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the descending sequence; 0.7031 spike high is next overhead
Break of the 0.70055 day low exposes 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.7045 london high would negate the session downtrend read
Trump-Xi headlines during the thin Asia session could move AUD sharply; Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) follow Friday
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 36 · price 0.70075
AUD broke below the Asian low near 0.7017 during NY hours as US claims and home sales beat and hawkish Fed commentary lifted the dollar. The 16:15 UTC spike high at 0.7031 was fully retraced, and the bounce off the 0.70055 day low stalled at the 0.70186 swing high, near the 50% retrace. Price is now pressing the day low late in NY with RSI(14) near 36, not oversold.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.70312
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70055 day low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.70186 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Recovery through the 0.70312 spike high would signal the NY selloff has been fully rejected
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC and US durables 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London high; tight range above window low.
London's push above the Asian range high to 0.70447 was a false break. US claims and new home sales beats, plus a 5.085% 7-year auction, kept the pair sliding through NY to a window low at 0.70055, and the mid-NY spike high at 0.70327 met rejection. Late NY, price is compressing between 0.7010 and 0.7019, under the 0.70186 lower high and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70186 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 0.70205–0.70251 fib zone of the session high-to-low move into play
Failure to hold the 0.70055 window low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.70327 spike high and the lower-high trendline would invalidate the NY downtrend read
Trump-Xi headlines in the Asia session could jolt AUD; Fed's Williams Fri 09:15 UTC is the next scheduled risk
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.70127
Lower highs from London high; tight 0.7010–0.7019 box above session low.
The mixed AU jobs print at 01:30 UTC briefly tested the 0.7018 asian low. London's 0.7045 high was rejected, and NY broke the Asian range on firm US data and hawkish Fedspeak. The 16:15 UTC ny spike hi at 0.7033 capped a lower high, and price is now compressing at 0.7010–0.7019 just above the 0.70055 session low, late NY with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7018, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7018 asian low invalidates the compression-at-lows read
Failure to hold the 0.70055 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.7033 ny spike hi breaks the lower-high trendline from the London high
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; Asian range broken to the downside.
The London high at 0.7045 capped the session. NY broke the Asian range low near 0.7017 as hawkish Fedspeak and firm US data lifted the USD, and the 16:15 UTC spike high at 0.7032 was rejected and fully retraced. Price is now compressing at 0.7010–0.7019 late in the NY session, just above the 0.7006 session low, with the 0.7000 psych level below and RSI(14) subdued near 35.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.7023, 0.70327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7019 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 0.7023 london low next
Failure to hold the 0.7006 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.7032 spike high would negate the lower-highs trendline
Thin liquidity into Asia session; Fed's Williams Fri 09:15 UTC and US durables 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from the London high; late-NY coil at 0.7010–0.7019 just above the day low.
London swept the Asian high to 0.70447 and reversed. NY extended the slide on the US claims and home-sales beats. The 16:15 UTC spike to 0.70327 met rejection and faded fully into a 0.70055 day low; price now coils below EMA20 under a 0.70186 lower high, RSI(14) ~40.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.70327, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70186 lower high breaks the intraday lower-high chain and targets the 0.70205 38.2% fib of the London high–day low drop
Failure to hold the 0.70055 day low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Spike high at 0.70327 sits near the London-high trendline; a break there invalidates the downtrend read
Williams Fri 09:15 UTC, then Durable Goods 12:30 UTC; Trump-Xi headlines remain an unscheduled risk
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 43 · price 0.70107
Lower-high/lower-low chain below Asian low, pressing session low.
London's push above the Asian range to 0.7045 failed. Beats in US claims and home sales, with yields above 5%, then drove the pair through the 0.7017 Asian low during NY hours. A mid-NY spike to the 0.7033 spike high was fully rejected, printing a fresh session low at 0.70055, and price now sits late-NY under the descending trendline, just above 0.7000 psych.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.70327
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.70186 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.70055 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.7033 spike high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Trump-Xi headlines are a live risk to AUD sentiment
Moves back into the 38.2% fib of the London-high-to-session-low leg (near 0.7020) would signal the selling is stalling
19:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing late NY · RSI 50 · price 0.70143
Lower highs from 0.7045 London high; lower lows below Asian low.
After a London rejection at 0.7045, USD strength on Thursday's US data beats pushed the pair through the Asian low at 0.7018 during NY hours to a session low of 0.70055. The 16:15 UTC spike high at 0.7033 was fully retraced, adding another lower high on the trendline. Price is now compressing at 0.7012–0.7019 late NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7018, 0.70327
What it said to watch
Close back above the asian low at 0.7018, which lines up with the spike fib 50% at 0.7019, eases the downside read
Break of the 0.70055 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Only a move above the 0.7033 spike high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Trump-Xi headlines in Asia and Friday's US durables and Fedspeak could reset the range
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs from London peak · RSI 47 · price 0.70125
Lower-high/lower-low chain; NY spike to 0.7033 fully faded, new session low 0.7006.
After the mixed AU jobs print dipped the pair to 0.7017 in Asia, the London high at 0.7045 capped the move and price has stepped lower since. Strong US claims and home sales data extended the slide through NY, and the 16:15 UTC spike high at 0.7033 was fully rejected into a fresh session low at 0.7006. Late NY now sits mid-range below the 0.7019 swing high, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70186, 0.70327, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7019 swing high breaks the latest lower high
Loss of the 0.7006 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.7033 spike high would invalidate the lower-high chain from the London high
US Durable Goods Fri 12:30 UTC and Williams at 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high 0.7045; NY broke Asian low, new day low 0.70055.
Lower highs have held since the 0.7045 London high, and NY broke the 0.7017 asia low as USD firmed on strong claims and yields above 5%. The 16:15 UTC spike high at 0.7031 met rejection near the 61.8% fib and the lower-high trendline. Price is now drifting just under 0.7017 after a new day low at 0.70055.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.70312, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.70055 day low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.7017 asia low would stall the downtrend leg
Break above the 0.7031 spike high breaks the lower-high trendline
Trump-Xi headlines are live risk into the thin late-NY and Asia session
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 42 · price 0.70132
LH/LL chain from the 0.7045 London high; late-NY bounce off a fresh session low.
The mixed AU jobs print knocked price to 0.7017 in Asia. Rejection at the 0.7045 London high then set up a lower-high sequence, and US data beats (claims, new home sales) extended the leg to 0.7007 in the NY session. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.7031 lower high fully faded, and the last bar swept the prior low to a 0.70055 session low before closing back at 0.7013, well below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70055, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70205, 0.70312, 0.70447
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7031 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain and the lower-highs trendline read
Failure to hold the 0.70055 session low puts the 0.7000 psych level in play
Reclaim of the fib 38.2 at 0.7020 (London high to session low) would signal the late-NY bounce has legs
Friday's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 40 · price 0.70116
Lower-high sequence from 0.7045; NY spike to 0.7033 fully reversed, price back near session low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.7045 London high. USD strength on beats in claims and new home sales pushed it through the 0.7017 Asian low to a 0.7007 session low. The 16:15 UTC spike to 0.7033 met rejection at the lower-high trendline, near the 61.8% fib, and price has slid back to 0.7012 late in NY hours.
Support: 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.70327
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7007 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaiming the 0.7017 Asian low would stall the latest leg down
M15 close above the 0.7033 lower high breaks the trendline and the downtrend read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday are the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from 0.7045; trading below the Asian low late in NY.
London's poke above the Asian range to the 0.7045 london high failed. NY then broke the 0.7017 asian low on firm US claims and yields, printing a 0.7007 ny low. The 16:15 UTC spike was rejected at the 0.7033 ny high, a lower high, and price has faded back below 0.7017 after London close.
Support: 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.70327, 0.70447
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7007 ny low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.7017 asian low turns it into a retest rather than resistance
A break above the 0.7033 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the london high
Fed's Hammack (18:00 UTC) and Williams (09:15 UTC Fri) could shift the USD/yield driver
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 45 · price 0.70189
Lower highs from 0.7045 London high; NY broke the 0.7017 Asian low, now back testing it.
London faded from the 0.7045 london high, and NY pushed through the 0.7017 asian low to a 0.7007 ny low as firm US claims and home sales kept USD bid. The late-NY spike met rejection at 0.7033, near the 61.8% fib of the London-NY sell-off. It has fully retraced, putting price back at the asian low with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.7017, 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.70327, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7017 asian low reopens the 0.7007 ny low and 0.7000 psych
Recovery above the 0.7023 london low and the 0.7033 spike high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Trump-Xi headlines are the main near-term risk into a thin Asia session
Asian range broken both ways; NY false break of the Asian low, lower high forming.
The London high at 0.7045 was rejected, and a steady slide followed as USD stayed bid on firm US data. NY broke the Asian low at 0.7018 and printed a 0.7007 session low. The break failed: a sharp 16:15 UTC rebound reached 0.7033, and price is now fading into late NY near the 50% fib at 0.7026, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.7018, 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70327, 0.70447
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7018 Asian low re-exposes the 0.7007 session low and 0.7000 psych
M15 close above the 0.7033 rebound high reopens the 0.7045 London high
Rejection below 0.7033 leaves a lower high in place under the 50% fib
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp NY rebound now fading · RSI 48 · price 0.70241
Lower highs from the London high, NY sweep below the Asian low reclaimed, rebound retracing.
London faded from the 0.7045 london high. The 14:00 UTC US new home sales beat extended the slide through the 0.7017 asian low to a 0.7007 ny low in NY hours, just above 0.7000 psych. A 26-pip rebound to 0.7033 has since given back about a third, and price at 0.7024 is sitting on the london low after London close.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017, 0.70069
Resistance: 0.70327, 0.70447
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.7017 asian low, which lines up with the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib, reopens the 0.7007 ny low
Holding the 0.7023 london low and a close above the 0.7033 rebound high puts the 0.7045 london high back in view
Trump-Xi headlines overnight and Friday's Williams speech, US durables and UoM inflation expectations could shift this read
False break below London range, price back inside 0.7023–0.7033.
London was rejected at the 0.7045 london high and ranged 0.7023–0.7033. Firm US claims and new home sales then drove NY through the range floor and the 0.7017 Asian low to a 0.7007 ny low just above 0.7000 psych. A 24-pip rebound reclaimed the range floor and stalled at the 0.7033 rebound high, near the 61.8% retrace of the London-high to NY-low drop.
Support: 0.7023, 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70327, 0.70391, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7023 range floor reopens the 0.7007 ny low
Acceptance above the 0.7033 rebound high puts the 0.7039 asian high and 0.7045 london high in view
Break of 0.7000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Trump-Xi headlines remain a near-term risk for AUD in thin late-NY trade
Lower highs from London high; NY break of Asian low reclaimed.
Lower highs from the 0.7045 London high held all day as USD stayed firm on beats in claims and home sales. NY pushed through the Asian low at 0.7017, set by the mixed AU jobs dip, to a session low of 0.7007 just above 0.7000 psych, then a single 16:15 UTC bar reclaimed about 18 pips to 0.7030. That false break stalled at the 61.8% fib of the London high–session low drop.
Support: 0.7017, 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70312, 0.70408, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7031 spike high and 61.8% fib opens the Asian high at 0.7041, then the London high at 0.7045
Slip back below the Asian low at 0.7017 negates the false break and puts the session low at 0.7007 and 0.7000 psych back in play
After London close liquidity thins; Trump-Xi headlines remain a near-term risk for AUD
Lower highs from London high 0.7045; Asian low broken in NY, now being retested from below.
London's 0.7045 high capped the session. Strong US claims and new home sales then drove the NY slide through the Asian low at 0.7017 to a session low at 0.7007, just above 0.7000 psych. The current bounce is retesting the broken Asian low from below. Lower highs remain intact under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.7023, 0.70336
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.7017 asian low keeps the lower-high chain intact
M15 close back above the 0.7023 london low (near the 200-DMA) undercuts the breakdown read
Close above the 0.7034 ny high and the descending trendline flips intraday structure
Break of the 0.7007 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
Trump-Xi headlines could shift this read at short notice; Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from London high; Asian low and London range broken in NY.
London opened with a spike to the 0.7045 London high that was rejected. NY then broke the 0.7023 London low and the 0.7017 Asian low, printing a session low at 0.7007 as firm US claims and home sales kept USD bid. Price is pausing just above 0.7000 psych, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet stretched.
Support: 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.7023, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7017 asian low negates the range break and puts the 0.7023 london low / 38.2% fib zone back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7007 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
Rebounds capped below the lower-highs trendline from the 0.7045 london high keep the sequence intact
Trump-Xi headlines are a live risk into the Asia session
Asian range broken to the downside; lower-high chain through NY session.
London's push above the Asian range to the 0.7045 london high was rejected. Firm US claims and new home sales kept USD bid, and the NY session broke the 0.7017 asian low on the 15:00 UTC drop to a 0.7007 session low. Price is sitting just above 0.7000 psych, with RSI(14) near 27 and the lower-high chain intact from 0.7029.
Support: 0.70069, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.7029, 0.70447
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 0.7017 asian low would mark a false break of the Asian range
A break of the 0.7007 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
An M15 close above the 0.7029 lower high negates the intraday lower-high chain
Trump-Xi headlines are a live risk to AUD in the coming hours; Fed's Williams speaks 09:15 UTC Fri
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 31 · price 0.7011
Asian range low broken in NY session; lower-high chain from London high.
Lower highs from the 0.7045 London high through the 0.7029 lower high gave way in the NY session. After the US new home sales beat, price broke the 0.7017 asian low set on the mixed AU jobs data and printed a session low at 0.7009. RSI(14) near 31, with price sitting just above 0.7000 psych.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.7029, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7017 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Break of the trendline from the London high, then a close above the 0.7029 lower high, ends the lower-high chain
Loss of 0.7000 psych extends the session low sequence
Fed speakers or US yield swings in late NY hours could shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in NY · RSI 30 · price 0.70119
Lower highs since London high, Asian low broken.
London's rejection at 0.7045 started a lower-highs sequence, capped last at the 0.7034 lower high. In NY, price broke the 0.7023 range floor and the 0.7017 asian low and printed a session low at 0.7009, with US yields near 19-year highs keeping USD bid. RSI(14) sits near 30 after the flush.
Support: 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7017, 0.7023, 0.70336
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7017 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold 0.7009 session low exposes the 0.7000 round number
Reclaim of 0.7023 range floor and the lower-highs trendline near 0.7029 would neutralise the breakdown read
No scheduled AUD/USD events in the next 8h; US yield swings remain the main driver
15:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 40 · price 0.70213
Range break lower in NY after a failed London push.
London's push above the Asian range to 0.7045 (london high) failed, and price has printed lower highs since. The 0.7023–0.7034 range broke lower around the 14:00 UTC US new home sales beat, putting in a session low at 0.7018 just above the 0.7017 asian low. RSI(14) near 40 is not stretched.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.7034, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7023 range floor would mark the NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7017 asian low exposes the 0.7000 round number
Break of the lower highs trendline and the 0.7034 ny high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Untimed Trump-Xi meeting headlines could materially shift this read
London close at 16:00 UTC may thin liquidity near the session low
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 30 · price 0.70192
Lower highs from London high; 0.7023 floor broken in NY.
London faded from its 0.7045 high on a lower-high chain. Supply capped the NY high at 0.7034, and the 0.7023 floor that held through the London-NY transition broke at 14:00 UTC as firm US claims and home-sales data kept USD bid. Price now sits just above the 0.7017 Asian low set after the mixed AU jobs report, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.70336, 0.70447
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7017 asian low opens the 0.7000 round number
M15 close back above the 0.7023 broken floor would mark a false break
A reclaim of the 0.7034 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline from the london high
Untimed Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 33 · price 0.70198
Lower-high sequence off the 0.7045 London high; NY broke below the 0.7023 range floor.
London's push above the Asian range to the 0.7045 London high failed. Price has since printed lower highs, most recently the 0.7034 lower high, and in the first hour of NY slipped through the 0.7023 range floor as USD stays bid on yields and the claims beat. RSI(14) is near 33, not yet stretched, and the Asian low at 0.7017 is the next level beneath.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.70336, 0.70447
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7023 range floor would mark the break as a false break and return price to the NY range
Failure to hold the 0.7017 Asian low exposes the 0.7000 round number
A close above the 0.7034 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the London high
Trump-Xi meeting headlines today could jolt AUD risk appetite
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, pressing floor · RSI 38 · price 0.70226
Lower highs into flat 0.7023 floor, descending-triangle shape.
AUDUSD has faded from the 0.7045 London high in a string of lower highs under a descending trendline, and is now pressing the 0.7023 range floor early in the NY session after firm US claims and home sales. The 0.7017 Asian low, set after the mixed AU jobs print, is the next reference below. RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7017 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.7023 range floor confirms the descending-triangle break
Close above the descending trendline and the 0.7034 lower high neutralises the intraday pressure, with the 0.7045 london high above
Trump-Xi meeting headlines today could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Flat after London reversal, lower highs · RSI 50 · price 0.70278
Tight 0.7023–0.7034 range capped by lower highs off the London high.
London briefly broke the Asian range high to the 0.7045 london high, then reversed. Since then price has compressed in a 0.7023–0.7034 range through the NY open, with a series of lower highs capping it and RSI(14) flat near 50. The Asian floor sits at the 0.7017 jobs low, printed after the AU employment data showed unemployment rising to 4.6%.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7034 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.7045 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7023 session low exposes the 0.7017 jobs low, then 0.7000 psych
Trump-Xi headlines and US New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could break the compression
13:46 UTC
Intraday down from London high, now flat · RSI 47 · price 0.70266
Tight 0.7023–0.7034 range under a lower-high trendline.
AUD dipped to the 0.7017 jobs low on the mixed Aussie labour data in Asia, then rebounded through the Asian high. London rejected that rally at 0.7045 as US yields stayed firm. Since late London, and into NY hours after the firm claims print, price has ranged between 0.7023 and 0.7034, just under the 61.8% jobs-low fib. Buyers have defended the range floor four times, while the lower-high trendline caps rallies.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7034, 0.7039, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 range floor exposes the 0.7017 jobs low
Close above the 0.7034 range top and the lower-high trendline reopens the 0.7039 asian high, then the 0.7045 london high
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and unscheduled Trump-Xi headlines could break the NY range
13:32 UTC
Sideways, heavy below EMAs · RSI 43 · price 0.70266
0.7023–0.7034 range since London-open rejection; flat lows, capped highs.
The mixed AU jobs data drove the pair to a 0.7017 Asian low, and it rebounded into London. The 0.7045 London high was rejected, and price has since held a tight 0.7023–0.7034 range. That range sits at the 61.8–78.6% retracement of the Asian low–London high fib. Six tests of the range floor held through the US claims beat, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs about 90 minutes into NY.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70336, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 range floor exposes the 0.7017 Asian low and the 0.7000 round number
M15 close above the 0.7034 range top invalidates the range read and reopens the 0.7045 London high
Paulson Fedspeak, 14:00 UTC New Home Sales and Trump-Xi headlines could break the range with US yields near 5.13%
13:03 UTC
Sideways after London rejection, compressed range · RSI 54 · price 0.70303
Tight 0.7023–0.7032 range below descending highs.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 0.7039 to a London high of 0.7045 but reversed. That false break dropped price into a tight 0.7023–0.7032 range, with firm US yields keeping AUD heavy. NY session opens with price pressing the range top, RSI(14) near 54, ATR(14) under 5 pips, and the descending highs line from the London high still capping.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7039, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 range top and the descending highs line opens a retest of the 0.7039 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7023 range low exposes the 0.7017 Asia low set after the AU jobs data
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC), US New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) and Trump-Xi headlines could break the range
12:47 UTC
Heavy since London high, stalling in tight range · RSI 47 · price 0.70281
Lower highs compressing into a flat 0.7023 floor, early NY.
The London-open push above the Asian high reversed from the 0.7045 london high. Price has since been boxed in a 0.7023–0.7032 range, with lower highs pressing on a flat range floor tested five times as firm US yields weigh on AUD. US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT left the range intact. The 0.7017 asia low printed just after the AU jobs data.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 range floor exposes the 0.7017 asia low
Close above the 0.7032 range top, which sits at the 38.2% fib, opens a retest toward the 0.7045 london high
Fed's Hammack at 12:50 and Paulson at 13:00 GMT, then US New Home Sales at 14:00 GMT, could break the NY range
Trump-Xi summit headlines are a live risk to the range read
Lower highs from 0.7045 capping a flat 0.7023 base.
London pushed briefly above the Asian range to a 0.7045 london high, was rejected, and has since held the 61.8% retracement of the asian low-london high leg. Since 09:00 UTC price has compressed between the 0.7023 session low and a 0.7032 range top, printing lower highs as firm US yields keep AUD heavy into US jobless claims.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7045
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT), then Fed's Hammack (12:50) and Paulson (13:00), could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7023 session low exposes the 0.7017 asian low
M15 close above the 0.7032 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings the 0.7045 london high back into view
Trump-Xi summit headlines remain a live swing factor for AUD
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.70269
Lower highs from London high, flat base at 0.7023–0.7025.
London faded from the 0.7045 london high. A chain of lower highs, most recently the 0.7032 lower high, has pressed price into a tight 0.7023–0.7032 band into the NY open, with US yields keeping USD bid. Price sits inside the Asian range above the 0.7017 asian low printed after the mixed AU jobs data; RSI(14) is near 42 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7045
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.7023 session low exposes the 0.7017 asian low
A recovery above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and opens the path back toward the 0.7045 london high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak within the hour could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi meeting headlines today are a risk-tone swing factor for AUD
Lower highs capping a 0.7024 floor; Asian high false break rejected.
London's poke above the Asian high to 0.7045 failed within a bar. Since then a chain of lower highs, the latest at 0.7032, has pressed price onto the 0.7024 session low, with firm US yields keeping USD bid. RSI(14) sits near 38 and ATR(14) is about 4.6 pips. The Asian low at 0.7017, set after the mixed AU jobs print, is the next reference below.
Support: 0.70236, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70323, 0.70391, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7024 session low exposes the 0.7017 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the London downtrend line and reopens the 0.7039 Asian high
A reclaim of the 0.7045 London high would invalidate the false-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Fed's Hammack and Paulson, land around the NY open and could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi meeting headlines today could jolt AUD during NY hours
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London rejection, momentum soft · RSI 40 · price 0.70281
London false break above the Asian high, then lower highs into a 0.7024–0.7032 box.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.7039 to print a london high of 0.7045, then reversed. Price has since compressed between the london low near 0.7024 and a lower high at 0.7032, with the 0.7017 asian low from the mixed jobs print below. Price trades under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40, as 5%+ US yields keep USD firm.
Support: 0.70242, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70323, 0.70391, 0.70447
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack and Paulson, could break the 0.7024–0.7032 box
M15 close below the 0.7024 london low exposes the 0.7017 asian low and the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close above the 0.7032 lower high reopens the 0.7039 asian high
Trump-Xi summit headlines are a live risk for AUD during the NY session
Lower highs from 0.7045 London high pressing a flat 0.7024 session low.
London's false break above the 0.7039 Asian high failed at 0.7045, the London high. Price has since been capped by a 0.7032 lower high and is pressing the 0.7024 session low, which has held three times. The 0.7017 Asian low from the mixed AU jobs print sits just below, and the USD bid on 5%+ yields has kept bounces shallow.
Support: 0.7024, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7039, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7024 session low exposes the 0.7017 asian low, then the 0.7000 round number
Reclaiming the 0.7032 lower high and the 38.2% fib breaks the London lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) plus Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could shift this read at the NY open
Trump-Xi summit headlines are a near-term swing factor for AUD
Lower highs since London high, flat base at 0.7025.
London open pushed above the asian high to a 0.7045 london high but was rejected, falling back through the Asian range to a 0.7025 london low as USD holds firm on 5%+ yields. Price is now compressing beneath a 0.7032 lower high (38.2% retrace of the London drop) with RSI(14) near 38. The 0.7017 asian low set after the mixed AU jobs print is the next reference below.
Support: 0.7025, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70323, 0.7039, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7032 lower high breaks the post-London sequence and opens the 0.7039 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7025 london low exposes the 0.7017 asian low, then the 0.7000 round number
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC plus Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines remain a wildcard for AUD during NY hours
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off London high · RSI 36 · price 0.70254
False break above Asian high, lower highs into session low.
London open pushed through the Asian high to a 0.7045 London high and was rejected. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.7032, the 38.2% retracement of that drop, and is pressing the 0.7025 session low with RSI(14) near 36. The 0.7017 Asian low, set after the mixed Australian jobs print, sits below, with firm US yields keeping AUD heavy.
Support: 0.70247, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70323, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7032 lower high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7025 session low exposes the 0.7017 asian low, then the 0.7000 round number
Reclaim of the 0.7045 london high would turn the London false break into a range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak into NY open could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are a live risk for AUD during the session
London false break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 0.7039 to a 0.70447 session high, then reversed back inside. That false break ran to a 0.70255 London low, now twice tested, and price sits near the lower half of the London drop fib. The Asian range (0.7017–0.7039) was set by the post-jobs dip to the Asian low, with USD firm on the yield surge.
Support: 0.70255, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70255 London low exposes the 0.7017 Asian low, then 0.7000 psych
Recovery above the 0.7039 Asian high, back toward the 0.70447 session high, negates the false-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are a near-term AUD risk
10:03 UTC
Intraday range, sellers active after London high rejection · RSI 44 · price 0.7031
0.7017–0.7045 range since the jobs low; higher low at 0.7026, lower high forming.
London pushed through the Asian high to 0.7045 and was rejected. Price then slid to a 0.7026 London low, which still holds above the 0.7017 jobs low set after the mixed AU employment print. At 0.7031, price sits below EMA20/50 and under the fib 50% of the London drop at 0.7035, with USD firm on the yield backdrop.
Support: 0.7026, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7035, 0.7045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 50% at 0.7035 reopens the 0.7045 London high
Break of the 0.7026 London low puts the 0.7017 jobs low and the higher-low line from overnight in play
Failure to hold 0.7017 exposes the 0.7000 psych level
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are a live risk for AUD during NY hours
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off London high · RSI 38 · price 0.70276
False break above Asian range, back inside lower half.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 0.7038 to 0.7045. Supply capped it there and price slid back to a session low at 0.70255, lower highs every bar. Price is now sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the rally off the 0.7017 jobs low, set on the mixed AU jobs print with unemployment up to 4.6%, while broad USD strength on yields keeps pressure on.
Support: 0.70255, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70377, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.70255 session low exposes the 0.7017 jobs low
Failure at 0.7017 puts the 0.7000 psych level in play
Recovery above the 0.7038 asian high negates the false-break read; 0.7045 london high above
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Fedspeak 12:50–13:00 could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines (timing unknown) are a risk-sentiment swing factor for AUD
09:31 UTC
Intraday range, momentum soft after London rejection · RSI 38 · price 0.70286
Range 0.7017–0.7045; London false break above Asian high reversed to range base.
London open briefly broke the Asian high at 0.7039 and tagged the London high at 0.7045, but was rejected back to the London low at 0.7025. That low matches yesterday's NY low, and price sits near the 61.8% of the Asia low–London high fib, below the ema20 near 0.7033, with RSI(14) near 38. The session low at 0.7017 printed after the mixed AU jobs data (39.5K beat, unemployment up to 4.6%), with the USD-yield channel still the dominant driver.
Support: 0.70255, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7039, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7025 london low exposes the 0.7017 session low and a lower-low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.7033 and the 0.7039 asian high puts the 0.7045 london high back in focus
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Fed's Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines (timing unconfirmed) are a risk-sentiment swing factor for AUD
False break above Asian high, lower highs back toward session low.
London pushed through the 0.7039 Asia high to a 0.7045 london high at 08:00 UTC, then failed. The false break has unwound to the 0.7026 session low, just under the 61.8% fib of the Asia low–London high move. The 0.7017 Asia low printed after mixed Australian jobs data (39.5K beat, unemployment up to 4.6%), and USD strength on yields near 5.13% keeps AUD heavy.
Support: 0.70255, 0.7023, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70276, 0.7039, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 0.7025 session low expose the 0.7023 jobs low and the 0.7017 asia low
Recovery above the 61.8% fib at 0.7028 and back over the 0.7039 asia high neutralises the false-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines (time not given) are a risk-sentiment swing factor for AUD
False break of Asian high, lower highs through mid-London.
Soft detail in the AU jobs data (unemployment up to 4.6%) set the 0.7017 jobs low in Asia. London pushed through the asian high and prior NY high to a 0.7045 london high, was rejected, and has slid back to 0.7029. Price is now between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 0.7017–0.7045 move, testing the 0.7027 swing low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.70275, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 swing low exposes the 0.7017 jobs low
Loss of the 0.7017 jobs low puts 0.7000 psych in view
Recovery above the 0.7039 asian high negates the false-break read and reopens the 0.7045 london high
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines (timing unknown) are a live risk for AUD
Range inside the Asian range after a failed London push above the Asian high.
Mixed Australian jobs data at 01:30 UTC knocked the pair to the 0.7017 asian low. It then rebounded, and the London open briefly cleared the 0.7039 asian high to a 0.7045 london high before rejection. Price is back inside the range near 0.7032, a roughly 50% retrace of the Asia rebound. RSI is neutral at 44, price sits under both EMAs and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.70307, 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70391, 0.70447
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7045 london high negates the false-break read
Loss of the 0.7031 london low exposes the 0.7027 asia swing, then the 0.7017 asian low
A break of 0.7017 would extend Wednesday's lower-low sequence toward the 0.7000 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are unscheduled risk for AUD
08:32 UTC
Range after Asian low, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 0.70326
Higher lows off 0.7017, London break of the Asian high rejected.
London pushed through the Asian high at 0.7039 to a 0.7045 session high but was rejected. The last full bar gave back the move and closed back under both EMAs. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the 0.7017–0.7045 leg, with the asian low printed after the jobs release showed full-time employment falling and rebounds capped by yield-driven USD strength.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7045
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7030 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 0.7017 asian low
M15 close back above the 0.7039 asian high would negate the false break; the 0.7045 session high then comes back into view
US Initial Jobless Claims and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak during the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are an unscheduled risk for AUD
08:16 UTC
Short-term recovery off the jobs low, stalling · RSI 54 · price 0.70382
Higher lows since 0.7017; early-London push above Asian high rejected.
AUD tagged a 0.7017 jobs low after unemployment rose to 4.6%, then built a chain of rising lows through Asia. Early London poked above the Asian range high to a 0.7045 session high, but the move was rejected back toward 0.7038. Price holds above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR around 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.70326, 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7045 session high reopens the post-PMI high at 0.7049
Loss of the 0.7033 higher low breaks the rising lows and puts the 0.7027 swing low and 50–61.8% fib zone in play
A break under the 0.7017 jobs low would resume the post-PMI downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, followed by Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are an unscheduled risk for AUD
Higher-low chain off the 0.7017 asia low, capped at the 0.7043 prior high.
AUD shed about 70 pips from 0.7090 through Wednesday's NY session on the hot US PMIs and 5%+ yields. It extended to a 0.7017 asia low after the mixed jobs print, with unemployment at 4.6%. Since then a rising trendline of higher lows has lifted price into early London, where the push above the Asian high stalled at the 0.7043 prior high, just shy of the 38.2% retracement of the decline.
Support: 0.70326, 0.70296, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 prior high opens the 38.2% retracement near 0.7045 and the 0.7049 swing high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.7033 swing low ends the higher-low sequence; the 0.7030 higher low is next
Loss of the 0.7017 asia low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, higher lows · RSI 63 · price 0.70418
Higher-low chain from 0.7017; London open pressing Asian range high.
Early London is pushing through the Asian high at 0.7039 into the 0.7042 ny high, where Wednesday's post-PMI consolidation topped out. Since the 0.7017 asian low that followed the soft-leaning AU jobs data, M15 has printed higher lows at 0.7027, 0.7030 and 0.7033. RSI(14) is near 63, not stretched.
Support: 0.70391, 0.70326, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 ny high opens the 0.7049 swing high
Slip back below the 0.7039 asian high marks a false break of the Asian range
Break of the 0.7033 higher low and the rising higher lows trendline ends the intraday HL chain; 0.7017 asian low then back in view
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are an unscheduled risk for AUD
AUD/USD has rebuilt from the 0.7017 session low set after the mixed Australian jobs print (4.6% unemployment), printing higher lows at 0.7027 and 0.7033 into the London open while the 0.7039 range cap has turned back four probes. Price is pinned around EMA50 with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR at roughly 4.4 pips; the post-PMI NY high at 0.7043 sits just above.
Support: 0.70326, 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7039 range cap and 0.7043 NY high breaks the Asian-London compression higher
Loss of the 0.7033 London low, then the 0.7027 higher low, breaks the higher lows chain back toward the 0.7017 session low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines today are a live risk for AUD in either direction
07:16 UTC
Downtrend paused, higher lows since Asia low · RSI 56 · price 0.70356
Asian range 0.7017–0.7039; rising lows under flat 0.7039 cap.
After Wednesday's slide from 0.7090 on the US PMI beats, Asia printed a 0.7017 low on the mixed jobs data (UR 4.6%), then built rising lows at 0.7027, 0.7030 and the 0.7033 higher low. Early London is pressing the Asian high at 0.7039, which has capped two tests, with the late-NY high at 0.7043 just above.
Support: 0.70326, 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70391, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 ny high clears the Asian high cap and opens the 0.7049 swing high
Break below the 0.7033 higher low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.7027 swing low
Loss of the 0.7017 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Williams at 08:10 UTC, Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 54 · price 0.70339
Higher lows off 0.7017 session low, capped below 0.7040.
Wednesday's slide from 0.7090 on the US PMI and yield surge extended after the 01:30 UTC Australian jobs print, where unemployment rose to 4.6%, and AUD/USD dipped to a 0.7017 session low under the prior NY low. The rebound since has printed higher lows at 0.7027 and 0.7030 along a rising trendline, but the pair was rejected at the 0.7039 Asia high into the London open, and the ny cap at 0.7043 sits just above.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70253, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70391, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7043 ny cap clears the Asia high and exposes the 0.7049 swing high
Loss of the 0.7030 higher low breaks the rising trendline and brings the 0.7025 prior ny low back into play
A break of the 0.7017 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are an unscheduled risk for AUD
Higher lows since jobs low, flat cap at 0.7039-0.7043.
The 01:30 UTC AUD jobs print (unemployment 4.6% vs 4.5% forecast) drove a false break below the NY low to a session low of 0.7017, reclaimed within the hour. Asia has since printed higher lows at 0.7027 and 0.7030 under a flat cap at the 0.7039 session high and 0.7043 NY high, with price above EMA20 but just under EMA50 heading into London open.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70391, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7039 session high and 0.7043 NY high breaks the Asian cap and opens the 0.7049 swing high
Loss of the 0.7030 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 0.7027 swing low and 0.7017 session low back in play
Williams at 08:10 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.7017 pressing the Asian high, inside the 0.7017–0.7043 range.
The unemployment miss (4.6% vs 4.5%) sent price to a 0.7017 session low, a false break under the 0.7025 NY low that was reclaimed quickly. Late in the Asia session, a higher-low chain (0.7027, 0.7030) now presses the 0.7039 Asian high just below the 0.7043 NY cap, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70253, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70391, 0.70428
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7043 NY cap after London open breaks the overnight range top
Failure to hold the 0.7030 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.7025 NY low and the 0.7017 session low
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are an unscheduled risk for AUD in either direction
06:16 UTC
Post-jobs recovery, higher lows under range top · RSI 54 · price 0.70362
Asian range 0.7017–0.7039, rising lows pressing into the session high.
The mixed AU jobs print (unemployment 4.6%) knocked the pair to an Asian low at 0.7017, but late Asia has built higher lows at 0.7027 and 0.7030 along a rising trendline. Price is pressing the Asian high near 0.7039, just under EMA50, with the NY high at 0.7043 capping the overnight range.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70387, 0.70428
What it said to watch
Close above the asian high at 0.7039 and the ny high at 0.7043 breaks the overnight range ahead of London open
Loss of the 0.7030 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes 0.7027, then the asian low at 0.7017
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines today are an unscheduled risk for AUD
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a late-Asia range · RSI 53 · price 0.70309
Lower highs from 0.7100; post-jobs range 0.7027–0.7038 above the 0.7017 session low.
The mixed Australian jobs print (unemployment 4.6%) knocked AUDUSD to a 0.7017 session low in the Asia session before demand lifted it back into a 0.7027–0.7038 range, with a higher low at 0.7027 on the rising trendline. Price is sitting near the 38.2% of that bounce and flat around EMA20 ahead of London open, with the 0.7043 NY high capping above.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70377, 0.70428
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7027 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.7017 session low
M15 close above the 0.7038 range top opens the 0.7043 NY high
Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC, US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
AUD/USD dropped to a 0.7017 jobs low on the mixed Australian labour print (unemployment 4.6%) at 01:30 UTC, then carved a higher low at 0.7027 during the Asia session. Late-Asia recovery met rejection at the 0.7038 Asian high for a second time, with Wednesday's 0.7043 NY high above that.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70377, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 Asian high opens the 0.7043 NY high
Break of the 0.7027 higher low and rising trendline returns focus to the 0.7017 jobs low
London open, Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines remain a live risk for AUD
Post-jobs V-recovery, higher low at 0.7027, pressing the Asia high.
The soft Aussie unemployment print (4.6%) knocked AUDUSD to a session low of 0.7017 in early Asia, extending Wednesday's PMI-driven slide. The break of the 0.7025 area failed: price carved a higher low at 0.7027, near the 50% retrace of the rebound, and is now testing the 0.7038 Asia high ahead of London open.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70377, 0.70428
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7043 swing high, which capped the overnight range, extends the rebound structure
Failure to hold the 0.7027 higher low or the rising support line reopens the 0.7017 session low
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off jobs low · RSI 60 · price 0.70347
Higher low above 0.7017, capped under NY range top.
The mixed Aussie jobs print at 01:30 UTC swept the prior NY low to 0.7017 before a recovery. Late Asia has since set a higher low at 0.7027 and is pressing the 0.7038 session high, just beneath the 0.7043 NY range top that capped the post-PMI drift. RSI(14) sits near 60; price is above EMA20 but still under EMA50.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70377, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7043 NY range top reopens the 0.7049 pmi bounce high from Wednesday's US PMI selloff
Failure to hold the 0.7027 higher low exposes the 0.7017 jobs low again
London open and Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) could shift this read; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines are larger event risk
The NY slide on the US PMI beat ran from 0.7055 to a 0.7025 ny low. The mixed Australian jobs print (UR 4.6%) then drove a sweep to a 0.7017 swing low, a false break that was quickly reclaimed. Late Asia has printed a higher low at 0.7027, with the 0.7037 asian high capping three tests.
Support: 0.70266, 0.70253, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70376, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 asian high opens the 0.7043 ny high, then the 0.7049 prior high
Loss of the 0.7027 higher low and the 0.7025 ny low puts the 0.7017 swing low back in play
Williams at 08:10 UTC, US claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
Post-data low at 0.7017, higher low at 0.7027, capped below 0.7037 bounce high.
The mixed Australian jobs data at 01:30 UTC extended Wednesday's PMI-driven slide to a 0.7017 session low. That briefly undercut the 0.7025 NY low before price reclaimed it. Late Asia has printed a higher low at 0.7027 and is sitting at the 61.8% fib of the 0.7043–0.7017 leg, just under the 0.7037 bounce high, with ATR(14) near 5 pips.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 bounce high clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.7043 swing high
Loss of the 0.7027 higher low breaks the rising support and reopens the 0.7017 session low
London open in ~2h, Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are the main risk-sentiment catalyst for AUD today
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after data low · RSI 45 · price 0.70304
Post-jobs sweep and rebound, now consolidating 0.7027–0.7037.
The mixed Australian jobs print (unemployment 4.6%, full-time jobs lower) swept the prior NY session low and set a data low at 0.7017. Price rebounded to a bounce high at 0.7037, and the pullback low at 0.7027 sits near the 50% retracement of that post-data bounce. Late Asia is ranging just under EMA20 with RSI(14) at 45, still below the asian high at 0.7041.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7041
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the pullback low at 0.7027 puts the 0.7017 data low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.7037 bounce high and the 0.7041 asian high invalidates the consolidation read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after sweep · RSI 45 · price 0.70292
Lower highs since NY high; Asia swept prior low then bounced.
Mixed Australian jobs data (unemployment 4.6% vs 4.5%) pushed the Asia session through yesterday's ny low at 0.7025 to an asia low of 0.7017. That sweep snapped back to a bounce high at 0.7037, and price now sits near the 38.2% bounce fib around 0.7029, with the lower highs line from the 0.7043 ny high still capping.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7017 asia low confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 0.7037 bounce high and the lower highs line breaks the intraday sequence
Loss of the 0.7025 ny low again puts the bounce fib retracement past 61.8%
Trump-Xi summit headlines and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.70296
Lower highs from NY high; post-jobs low rejected, mid Asian range.
The mixed AU jobs report at 01:30 UTC (unemployment 4.6% vs 4.5%) pushed AUD through yesterday's 0.7025 prior low to a 0.7017 session low. The break did not hold, and the rebound stalled at the 0.7037 Asian high under the lower-highs line from the 0.7043 NY high. Price is back near 0.7030, mid-range, with RSI(14) neutral around 46 late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.7025, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7043
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7025 prior low reopens the 0.7017 session low
Close above the 0.7037 Asian high and the lower-highs line exposes the 0.7043 NY high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines are the main risk-sentiment swing factor for AUD today
Lower highs since NY session; post-jobs sweep to 0.7017 retraced, now fading.
The slide from 0.7100 through London and NY, extended by the US PMI beat, resumed after the mixed Aussie jobs data (unemployment 4.6%). The jobs selloff swept below the 0.7025 prior low to a 0.7017 jobs low before rebounding. That bounce met rejection at 0.7037, a bounce high below the 0.7042 range top that held through the Asian range, and price is back near 0.7028 with RSI(14) around 43.
Support: 0.7025, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7037, 0.7042
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7025 prior low exposes a retest of the 0.7017 jobs low
An M15 close above the 0.7042 range top breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from NY high; false break of NY low reclaimed.
In the Asia session, the soft full-time jobs detail and 4.6% unemployment pushed AUD through the NY low at 0.7025 to a session low of 0.7017. The false break reclaimed quickly, but the rebound met rejection at 0.7037, the rebound high near the 78.6% fib of the NY high-to-session low leg. Price is back under EMA20 near 0.7031 with RSI(14) at 46, and the lower-highs line from the NY high remains intact.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70369, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 rebound high and lower-highs line would break the sequence from the 0.7043 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.7025 NY low reopens the 0.7017 session low, with the 0.7000 round number below
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines today are the main risk-sentiment catalyst for AUD
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, V-shaped rebound in Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.70333
Lower highs since US PMI drop; Asia false break of pre-data low.
Mid-Asia session, the mixed AU jobs report (unemployment 4.6%, full-time jobs down) pushed price through the 0.7029 pre-data low to a 0.7017 session low. The drop then retraced to 0.7033, near the 78.6% level of the jobs drop, with RSI(14) back to a neutral 50. Price sits just above EMA20 and below EMA50, under the asian high at 0.7038 and the late NY high near 0.7042.
Support: 0.7029, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70376, 0.70425, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7042 late ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.7049 pmi bounce high
Failure back below the 0.7029 pre-data low puts the 0.7017 session low back in play
Rejection at the 0.7038 asian high keeps the post-PMI downtrend structure intact
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia rebound · RSI 49 · price 0.70346
Lower highs since 0.7043; false break of the NY low reversed to near the lower-high line.
Mixed AUD jobs data at 01:30 UTC (unemployment 4.6% vs 4.5%) swept the 0.7029 pre-data low and the 0.7025 NY low to a 0.7017 session low. Price then snapped back about 85% of the Asia drop to 0.7035, sitting just under the lower-high line from the 0.7043 swing high and the 0.7038 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.7029, 0.70253, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.70376, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 Asian high breaks the lower-high line and exposes the 0.7043 swing high
Slip back below the 0.7029 pre-data low puts the 0.7025 NY low and 0.7017 session low back in play
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, rebound off jobs low · RSI 48 · price 0.70324
Lower highs intact; failed break under 0.7025 reclaimed.
Mixed Aussie jobs data at 01:30 UTC showed unemployment at 4.6% vs 4.5% forecast. It knocked price through Wednesday's 0.7025 NY low to the 0.7017 jobs low, but the break failed and the Asia session has since recovered most of the drop, back toward the 0.7029–0.7038 pre-data range. The lower-high sequence from the 0.7049 swing high is intact, and the rebound is stalling at the descending trendline near 0.7035, just under the 0.7038 Asia high.
Support: 0.7029, 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70376, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 asia high and trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, opening the 0.7043 ny high and 0.7049 swing high
Failure back below the 0.7029 pre-data low puts the 0.7017 jobs low and 0.7000 psych back in view
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC), US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7043; overnight range broken lower in Asia.
Asia session broke below the overnight 0.7030–0.7043 range after the mixed AU jobs print (unemployment 4.6%), undercutting Wednesday's post-PMI prior low at 0.7025 to a session low at 0.7017. The bounce has reclaimed 0.7026, the 38.2% fib of the 0.7043–0.7017 leg, with the 0.7030 broken low and descending highs from the 0.7043 bounce high capping above.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7017
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.70376, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7025 prior low reopens the 0.7017 session low
M15 close above the 0.7030 broken low and the 0.7038 asian high would break the descending highs
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Trump-Xi summit headlines today are the main risk-sentiment catalyst for AUD
Lower highs from 0.7043; overnight range broken lower.
The mixed Australian jobs report (unemployment 4.6%) knocked AUD/USD out of its overnight 0.7029–0.7043 range, extending yesterday's US PMI-driven slide to a session low at 0.7017. That break also took out the prior low at 0.7025 from the NY session, leaving price under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 24. The Asia high at 0.7038 and the NY high at 0.7043 cap the lower-highs sequence.
Support: 0.7017, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70253, 0.70376, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7025 (prior low) would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7017 session low opens the 0.7000 round number
A reclaim of the 0.7038 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline
A stall near the 38.2–50% post-NY fib (0.7027–0.7030) would keep the downtrend read intact
Trump-Xi summit headlines and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low in Asia · RSI 25 · price 0.70226
The 01:30 UTC Aussie jobs release knocked AUDUSD through the pre-jobs low at 0.7029 and yesterday's post-PMI NY low at 0.7025, printing a jobs low at 0.7023 early in the Asia session. RSI(14) sits near 25. The 0.7000 psych level is 23 pips below, and the broken NY low is the first cap overhead.
Support: 0.70226, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70253, 0.7029, 0.70376
What it said to watch
Jobs actuals are not yet in the feed. A confirmed miss vs the 20K forecast could extend the break toward 0.7000 psych.
A move back above the 0.7029 pre-jobs low would turn the 0.7025 break into a false break.
An M15 close above the 0.7038 pre-jobs high breaks the lower-high chain; 50–61.8% of the 0.7043–0.7023 leg sits at 0.7033–0.7035.
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could shift this read later in the day.
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low on AU jobs release · RSI 29 · price 0.70263
Lower highs since NY afternoon; Asian range broken to the downside.
The AU jobs release at 01:30 UTC broke the Asian range to the downside. Price cleared the 0.7029 Asian low and the prior NY low to print a jobs low at 0.70235, extending the lower-highs sequence from the 0.7043 NY range top that followed Wednesday's US PMI selloff. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme, and the 0.7000 psych level sits about 26 pips below.
Support: 0.70235, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7029, 0.70376, 0.70428
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7029 (asian low) would mark the jobs-bar break as a false break
Failure to hold 0.70235 (jobs low) leaves 0.7000 psych as the next reference
Reclaim of 0.70376 (asian high) breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Jobs actuals not yet in feed; Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in a post-selloff range · RSI 38 · price 0.70322
Lower highs capping a 0.7025–0.7043 range after the US PMI leg lower.
AUD/USD fell from the pre-pmi high at 0.7069 to 0.7025 as hot US flash PMIs and 5%+ 10Y yields lifted the dollar. The rebound stalled at the ny high of 0.7043, which is also the 38.2% of that PMI leg. The AU jobs release bar swept below the Asian low and prior floor to a jobs low of 0.70235, then snapped back to 0.7032, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.7029, 0.70235, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70376, 0.70428, 0.70687
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70235 jobs low confirms a lower low and opens the 0.7000 psych level
Close back above the 0.70376 asian high, then the 0.70428 ny high / 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7029 asian low after the jobs spike keeps the range floor under pressure
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing below EMAs · RSI 48 · price 0.70355
Lower highs after PMI sell-off; tight Asian range above day low.
AUD/USD fell ~87 pips from 0.7113 after the hot US flash PMIs, bottoming at the 0.7025 day low in NY. The bounce stalled at the 0.7043 bounce high, the 38.2% of the PMI drop. Asia is holding a tight 0.7029–0.7041 range below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR compressed to about 3 pips ahead of the AU jobs print.
Support: 0.7029, 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70408, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
AU August jobs at 01:30 GMT (f/c 20K, unemployment 4.5%) is likely to resolve the compressed Asian range, with ATR expansion expected
M15 close below the 0.7029 asian low and 0.7025 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.7000 psych
Close above the 0.7041 asian high and the 0.7043 bounce high (38.2% PMI fib) opens the 0.7049 lower high
US 10Y holding above 5.05% keeps the structure heavy; US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next USD risk
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in consolidation · RSI 40 · price 0.70339
Tight 0.7025–0.7043 band after sell-off, Asia session edging to lows.
AUD/USD has been boxed in a 0.7025–0.7043 band since the NY afternoon. That follows Wednesday's sell-off from 0.7113, driven by the US PMI beat and 10Y yields above 5.05%, with price barely clearing the 23.6% of the sell-off fib. The early Asia session has leaked to a new asian low at 0.7029, still above the ny low of 0.7025, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR compressed to under 4 pips ahead of AU jobs.
Support: 0.7029, 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
AU August jobs at 01:30 GMT (f/c 20K, prior -15.8K, unemployment f/c 4.5%) is likely to break the compressed range
M15 close below the 0.7025 ny low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 0.7000 psych level in play
M15 close above the 0.7043 range top reopens the 0.7049 pmi high from the NY session
Failure to hold the 0.7029 asian low keeps the drift inside the band tilted to the downside
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, slow grind lower in Asia · RSI 32 · price 0.70306
Lower highs below NY afternoon range, pressing NY low.
The London-led selloff accelerated on the US PMI beat, bottoming at the 0.7025 NY low before a 0.7036–0.7043 NY afternoon range with its range top near 0.7042. Early Asia has slipped out of that range after the soft AU manufacturing PMI, printing lower highs into 0.7031 with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70425, 0.70494
What it said to watch
AU August jobs at 01:30 GMT (f/c 20K, prior -15.8K) could materially shift this read within the next few bars
M15 close below the 0.7025 ny low confirms a lower-low and puts the 0.7000 psych level in view
Recovery back above the 0.7042 range top negates the Asia range break
A spike through the 0.7049 pmi bounce high would break the post-PMI lower-high sequence
Asia lower highs trendline capping since 23:15 UTC; a close above it signals the drift is stalling
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC keep USD yield risk live
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in early Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.70329
Lower lows; post-NY range 0.7036–0.7042 broken to the downside.
Asia slipped out of the 0.7036–0.7042 post-NY range after soft AU flash PMIs, printing a fresh session low at 0.7032. The ny low at 0.7025 from the post-US PMI selloff sits just below. RSI(14) is near 38 with price under both EMAs, and ATR is only ~3.4 pips ahead of AU jobs.
Support: 0.70318, 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70408, 0.70428, 0.70494
What it said to watch
AU August jobs at 01:30 GMT (~1h) could materially shift this read; ATR is set to expand sharply
Failure to hold the 0.7025 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.7041 range top returns price to the post-NY range; the 0.7043 evening high sits just above it
A push through 0.7049 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence from the NY selloff
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in tight range · RSI 39 · price 0.70337
Post-PMI low, lower highs, now testing range floor.
AUDUSD sold off through NY on the US PMI beat and yield spike, printing the day low at 0.7025. The bounce stalled at 0.7043, just above the 38.2% retracement of the PMI drop fib. Price then held a 0.7036–0.7041 range, capped by the range top, for six hours. Early Asia is pressing the range floor at 0.7033 with RSI(14) at 39, and the spike low at 0.7030 is the next level beneath.
Support: 0.70296, 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70408, 0.70494
What it said to watch
AU August jobs at 01:30 GMT (f/c 20K, prior -15.8K) is likely to set the Asian range; a second job loss would expose the day low and the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close below the 0.7030 spike low confirms the range floor giving way toward the 0.7025 day low
Close back above the 0.7041 range top and the lower highs trendline shifts focus to the 0.7049 bounce high
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.70343
Lower highs capped by 0.7042 range top after the US PMI selloff.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC knocked AUDUSD from 0.7068 to a 0.7025 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 0.7049 bounce high and then at the 38.2% fib near the 0.7042 range top, leaving a lower-highs sequence. Early Asia is slipping under the 0.7036 range floor toward the 0.7030 rollover low ahead of the Aussie jobs data.
Support: 0.70296, 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70425, 0.70494
What it said to watch
AU jobs at 01:30 UTC (f/c +20K, prior -15.8K) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.7025 NY low confirms a lower-low and brings the 0.7000 psych level into view
Failure to hold the 0.7030 rollover low extends the slide out of the NY-afternoon range
A recovery above the 0.7042 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 0.7049 bounce high next