AUDUSD has printed lower highs from the 0.7237 peak through 0.7187 and 0.7140, and this week broke below the 0.7092–0.7140 range floor as US yields above 5.1% and Fed-hike repricing extended the three-week slide. Price is now consolidating just above the 0.7004 swing low and the 0.7000 psych level, with the 0.7045 swing high capping the bounce. ATR(14) has eased to about 19 pips from the breakdown bar, and EMA20 is holding below EMA50, which keeps the bearish cross state in place.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70717, 0.7092
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7004 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.7045 swing high puts the fib 50% at 0.7072 in play; a reclaim of the 0.7092 range floor challenges the lower-high trendline
RBA decision Tue 29 Sep 04:30 UTC: guidance on further hikes could materially shift this read
US ADP, GDP and personal spending on Wed 30 Sep, plus US yield direction, feed the USD side of the pair
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; tight base above 0.7004.
Clean lower-high sequence from 0.7237 through 0.7187 and the 0.7140 lower high, with the break of the 0.7074 prior low extending the leg to a 0.7004 swing low as surging US yields and Fed hike pricing weigh on AUD. Price has spent the last three sessions in a 0.7004–0.7045 consolidation just above the 0.7000 psych level, capped by the ema20, with EMA20 still below EMA50. ATR(14) has eased to about 19 pips from the expansion bars earlier in the week, a sign the move is pausing rather than extending.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7004 swing low and the 0.7000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
Sustained trade above the ema20 near 0.7045 opens a retracement of the 0.7140–0.7004 leg toward the 0.7074 prior low, near its 50% level
The lower highs trendline and the 0.7140 lower high need to be reclaimed before the downtrend read changes
RBA decision Tue 29 Sep 04:30 UTC: a 'one-and-done' signal or a surprise hold could materially shift this read
US UoM inflation expectations today at 14:00 UTC could re-price Fed hike odds and US yields
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237 peak; tight base 0.7004-0.7045.
AUDUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs (0.7237, 0.7187, 0.7140) and lower lows (0.7108, 0.7074, 0.7004) over the window. The break below the 0.7074 prior low came as hot US flash PMIs and 19-year-high US yields lifted the USD, taking the pair to its lowest since early August. Price has since compressed into a 0.7004-0.7045 base just above the 0.7000 psych level, with ATR(14) easing to about 20 pips and both EMAs overhead in bearish alignment.
Support: 0.7004, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7045, 0.7074, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7004 swing low and 0.7000 psych would extend the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.7045 range top and the 0.7074 prior low (near the 50% fib of the 0.7140-0.7004 leg) would challenge the downtrend read
Lower highs trendline from 0.7187 caps rallies; a break above the 0.7140 lower high invalidates the structure
US Durable Goods and UoM inflation expectations today could shift yields and this read
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 04:30 UTC, then Australian monthly CPI Wed, are the next major volatility risks
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near 0.7000 · RSI 29 · price 0.70131
Lower highs since 0.7237 peak; range break lower, now basing above 0.7000.
Lower highs have held since the 0.7237 early-month peak, with the 0.7140 lower high capping the most recent bounce. Wednesday's strong US PMIs knocked price out of the mid-month 0.7100-0.7140 range and extended the slide to a 0.7004 swing low, just above the 0.7000 psych handle. Since then price has compressed between the swing low and the 0.7045 swing high, with ATR(14) near 19 pips, RSI oversold and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7000 psych handle extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.7045 swing high and the 0.7074 prior low (near the fib 50%) would signal a deeper retracement of the leg from 0.7140
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 04:30 UTC: a hold or dovish guidance versus a hawkish hike could materially shift this read
US UoM inflation expectations today at 14:00 UTC as the nearer-term USD-side risk to the 0.7000 area
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.70043
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 top; price pressing 0.7000 psych.
Clean lower-high, lower-low sequence since the 0.7237 top. Each rally has capped under the lower-high trendline, the latest at 0.7140. Wednesday's hot US PMIs and hawkish Fed talk broke the pair through the 0.7075 prior low and out of the 0.7075-0.7140 range, taking price to the 0.7000 psych level. ATR(14) has expanded to about 20 pips from low-teens mid-window, and RSI in the low 20s shows a stretched move, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both.
Support: 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7045, 0.7075, 0.7140
What it said to watch
An H4 close below 0.7000 psych extends the lower-low sequence into fresh window lows
Recovery above the 0.7045 bounce high, then the 0.7075 prior low (near the fib 50%), would be the first break in the lower-high structure
A push through the lower-high trendline and 0.7140 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 04:30 UTC: a hike is priced, so guidance on further hikes could materially shift this read
US durables and UoM inflation expectations Friday feed Fed hike pricing and US yields, the main driver of the move