Lower highs since the rejected NY spike, compressing in early Asia.
The NY spike to the 0.70387 spike high was rejected within the bar. Since then, a descending trendline of lower highs has pressed price to 0.70149, near the 78.6% retracement of the London low–NY high rally. Early Asia trade is thin and ranges have compressed to about 2 pips ahead of the RBA, where a fully priced hike leaves guidance as the swing factor.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70285, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision 04:30 UTC and Bullock press conference 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read; expect ATR expansion from compressed levels
Break below the 0.70113 ny low exposes the 0.70073 london low and the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close above the 0.7020 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.70285 asian high
23:31 UTC
Drifting lower off NY spike, now flat · RSI 45 · price 0.70156
Lower highs from 0.7039, tight 0.7015–0.7020 range in early Asia.
The NY-hours spike high at 0.7039, which coincided with Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming the USD, was rejected. Price has since faded through lower highs into a tight 0.7015–0.7020 early-Asia range near the 78.6% level of the london low–NY high retrace. RSI(14) is neutral at about 45 and bar ranges are compressing ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.7015, 0.7011, 0.7007
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7028, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7015 range low exposes the 0.7011 swing low and the 0.7007 london low
M15 close above the 0.7020 range top reopens the 0.7028 asian high, with the 0.7039 spike high above
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's NY spike to the 0.7039 spike high, likely on the Iran sanctions-relief headlines that trimmed the USD, was fully rejected. That left a false break of the 0.7029 range top. Price has since printed lower highs back to the 78.6% of the NY spike fib and is compressing between 0.7015 and the 0.7020 minor high in early Asia, with ATR shrinking into the RBA.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70113, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7015 session low exposes the 0.7011 NY low, then the 0.7007 London low
Reclaiming the 0.7020 minor high and the 0.7029 range top would break the lower-high sequence; the 0.7039 spike high marks the upper limit
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7039 spike; compressing 0.7015–0.7020 in early Asia.
The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.7039 spike high cleared the 0.7029 session high but reversed within a bar, coinciding with US-Iran sanctions headlines that trimmed the USD's gains. Price has since slipped through a chain of lower highs to the 0.7015 ny low, and now sits under ema20 and the ema50 near 0.7020, with RSI(14) near 41. ATR is compressed at about 2.7 pips in thin early Asia trade ahead of the RBA; the 38.2% of the spike fade sits near 0.7024.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70111, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read; current ATR understates event risk
M15 close below the 0.7015 ny low exposes the 0.7011 swing low, then the 0.7006 day low near the 0.7000 mark
M15 close above the ema50 near 0.7020 and the lower highs trendline eases the fade read, bringing 0.7024 (spike fade 38.2%) and the 0.7029 session high back in focus
Re-acceptance above the 0.7039 spike high would invalidate the false break read
22:32 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower since NY spike · RSI 45 · price 0.70183
Lower highs after rejected NY spike, back inside Asian range.
The NY-session spike to the 0.70387 spike high on the Iran sanctions-relief reports was fully rejected, a false break above the 0.70285 Asian high. Price has faded back into the range on a sequence of lower highs and is now compressed at 0.7015–0.7020 into the NY close. RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and ATR is about 2.6 pips in thin trade ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70146, 0.7011, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70285, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC presser (~6h away) could break the 0.7011–0.7029 box in either direction
Failure to hold the 0.70146 ny low exposes the 0.7011 double low and the 0.70073 day low
An M15 close above the 0.7021 lower high and the descending trendline shifts focus back to the 0.70285 asian high
22:17 UTC
Sideways, mild lower-high drift after NY spike · RSI 47 · price 0.70194
Spike high rejected, lower highs, late-NY lows holding.
The 16:00 UTC spike to the 0.7039 spike high came as USD pared gains on the Iran sanctions-relief headlines, but it was rejected within a bar. Since then AUDUSD has printed lower highs capped near 0.7021 under a descending trendline, while the late-NY low at 0.7015 has held. Price sits on EMA20 and the 61.8% retrace of the London low–spike high move, with ranges compressing (ATR under 3 pips) as the new Asia session opens ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.7015, 0.7011, 0.7007
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7028, 0.7039
What it said to watch
RBA decision 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC: hawkish vs pause guidance could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.7021 lower highs and the descending trendline ends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.7028 asia high, then the 0.7039 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.7015 late-ny low reopens the 0.7011 ny low and the 0.7007 london low
22:03 UTC
Sideways, fading from NY spike · RSI 46 · price 0.70176
Lower highs off 0.70387 spike, holding 0.7015 floor.
The NY-hours spike to 0.70387 on the Iran sanctions-relief headline was rejected. Price then carved lower highs down to the 0.7021 area and is pressing the late NY low at 0.70146. It now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the 0.70073–0.70387 leg in thin rollover trade, inside the 0.70062–0.70387 day range, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70113, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC press conference land in the coming Asian session and could materially shift this read
Break of the late NY low at 0.70146 exposes the swing low at 0.70113, then the Asian low at 0.70062
M15 close above the lower highs at 0.7021 eases the pullback structure; prior high 0.70287 and spike high 0.70387 sit overhead
Lower highs since the NY spike high, back inside the Asian range.
A spike high at 0.7039 during NY hours, likely tied to the Iran sanctions-relief headlines that trimmed DXY, poked above the Asian high at 0.7028 and was rejected within a bar. Price has since bled back through the spike retrace to around 0.7017 along a descending line of lower highs, sitting just above the late low at 0.7015 in thin pre-RBA trade.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70112, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70285, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close below the late low at 0.7015 exposes the swing low at 0.7011, then the day low at 0.7006 and the 0.7000 psych level
A close above the descending line and the 0.7021 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and put the Asian high at 0.7028 back in play
Reclaiming the 0.7039 spike high would invalidate the false-break read
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and the Bullock presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with guidance the key driver
21:32 UTC
Drifting lower after spike fade, basing into NY close · RSI 43 · price 0.70173
Lower highs off 0.70387 spike high; compressing 0.7015–0.7021 inside the 0.70062–0.70387 day range.
The NY-afternoon spike to the 0.70387 spike high, on US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines, was fully rejected. Price has since printed lower highs down to a 0.70146 ny low and sits near the 78.6% level of the 0.70113–0.70387 fib, with the 0.7021 late cap holding into the NY close. The pair is pinned near 0.7017 ahead of the RBA, and ATR has shrunk to roughly 3 pips a bar.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70113, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70283, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC, plus Bullock at 05:30, lands in the upcoming Asia session and could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.70146 ny low and 0.70113 swing low exposes the 0.70062 asian low and 0.7000 psych
M15 close above the 0.7021 late cap and 0.70283 asian high negates the lower-high sequence off the spike high
21:17 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower since 16:00 UTC spike · RSI 40 · price 0.70195
Range 0.7007–0.7029 with a rejected false break above; lower highs into late NY.
A 16:00 UTC spike to the spike high at 0.70387 came as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed USD gains. It was fully unwound, sending price back inside the 0.7007–0.7029 range, and NY printed lower highs into a late NY low at 0.70146. Price is near 0.7020 in thin post-NY trade, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 3 pips ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70285, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70146 late ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.70073 london low
Acceptance below the london low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.70285 range top, the 61.8% of the spike fib, reopens the 0.70387 spike high
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could break the range either way
21:05 UTC
Intraday fade, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 41 · price 0.70169
Lower-high/lower-low sequence off the 0.7039 session high, holding above the day low.
The NY spike to the 0.7039 session high was rejected within the bar, and price has since bled lower through a chain of lower highs, pinned near 0.7000–0.7020 into the RBA. Late NY it sits at 0.7017, the 78.6% retracement of the 0.7011–0.7039 NY leg, just above the 0.7015 ny low, with the Asian range (0.7006–0.7028) still containing the session.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70113, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70211, 0.70285, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7015 ny low exposes the 0.7011 swing low and the 0.7006 day low
M15 close above the 0.7021 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 0.7028 asian high is the next cap
Holding the 78.6% level of the ny leg fib near 0.7017 keeps the rally partially intact
RBA decision and statement at 04:30 UTC (~7h), then Bullock at 05:30 UTC; guidance could reset the range either side, with 0.7039 session high the upside marker
The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.70387 spike high, which coincided with the Iran sanctions-relief headline, broke the 0.70287 prior high but was fully rejected. The spike fade has since printed lower highs down to the 0.70146 late low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 43. Late-NY trade is back inside the 0.7007–0.7029 day range ahead of the RBA, with ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70113, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.70211, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.70146 late low exposes the 0.70113 ny low, then the 0.70073 london low
Recovery above the 0.70211 lower high neutralises the spike fade. The 0.70287 prior high remains the range cap
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and Bullock's presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read. The guidance, not the priced hike, is the swing factor
Lower highs since the NY spike, inside the Asian range.
The NY-session spike to the 0.7039 spike high on the Iran sanctions headline failed straight back inside the Asian range (0.7006–0.7028). Since then price has printed steady lower highs along a descending trendline into the 0.7015 session low, a quiet pre-RBA drift below the 0.7021 lower high with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.70146, 0.7011, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70285, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 lower high breaks the descending trendline and returns focus to the 0.7028 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7015 session low exposes the 0.7011 swing low, tested twice during London and NY hours, then the 0.7006 day low
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (~8h) and Bullock's presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read; hike-and-pause guidance puts the 0.7006 day low in focus
Only a sustained move back above the 0.7039 spike high would reverse the false break read
20:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY spike · RSI 38 · price 0.70162
Lower highs from 0.7039, back inside Asian range.
The Iran sanctions-relief headline that trimmed DXY produced a NY spike to 0.7039. It was a false break of the 0.7028 Asian high, and price quickly fell back inside the range. Price has since posted steady lower highs under a descending trendline into late NY, with the bar at 0.7016 closing just above the 0.7011 swing low that held twice today.
Support: 0.7011, 0.7007, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7025, 0.7028
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read; 0.7025 gap fill and 0.7028 Asian high sit just above
Failure to hold the 0.7011 swing low exposes the 0.7007 session low and the 0.7000 psych level
RBA decision and guidance Tue 04:30 UTC (~8h) could materially reset this range
20:03 UTC
Range-bound, drifting lower from NY spike · RSI 42 · price 0.70181
Lower highs since 0.7039 spike, mid-range inside 0.7006–0.7039.
The weekend gap lower was filled in Asia. The pair then held a 0.7006–0.7039 range, with a range floor at 0.7006–0.7007 from the Asia and London lows. The NY spike to the 0.70387 spike high on the Iran sanctions headline was a false break above the 0.70287 prior high and was quickly rejected. Lower highs since have pulled price back to 0.7018, sitting on the evening low near the 78.6% level of the NY spike fib, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 0.70166, 0.7011, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.70166 evening low exposes the 0.7011 swing low from the London open and NY dip
The minor high at 0.7021 capping keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a close above the 0.70287 prior high negates it
A break of the 0.7006 range floor puts the pair back under 0.7000
A retest of the 0.70387 spike high would reopen the top of the session range
RBA decision and guidance Tue 04:30 UTC (~8.5h), then Bullock at 05:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Range-bound, fading from NY spike · RSI 40 · price 0.70191
0.7006–0.7029 day range, lower highs since NY spike rejection.
Monday opened on a gap lower with the firm USD. Asia recovered to the 0.7028 range top, and London-NY then chopped inside 0.7007–0.7029. The NY spike to 0.70387 on the Iran sanctions-relief headlines was rejected within a bar, and a lower-highs chain has since pulled price back to 0.7019, just above the 0.70174 swing low and on the 61.8% fib of the day's range.
Support: 0.70174, 0.70108, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.70174 swing low exposes the 0.70108 london low, then the 0.70062 session low
A close back above the lower highs line and the 0.70287 range top would reopen the 0.70387 spike high
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC, then Bullock at 05:30 UTC, lands in the Asia session and can break the 0.7006–0.7029 range either way
US-Iran headlines remain a spike risk in thin post-NY trade
19:32 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 49 · price 0.70206
False break above Asian range high at 0.7039; lower-high sequence into late NY, price mid-range.
The weekend gap down from 0.7025 filled during NY hours. A 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.70387 spike high on Iran sanctions-relief headlines then failed back inside the range, and a lower-highs line has capped price since. Price is sitting between the 50% and 61.8% of the day-range fib (0.7022/0.7019), just under ema20 and above the 0.70174 swing low, pinned into Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.70174, 0.7011, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70235, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70174 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.7011 double low
Loss of the 0.70062 Asian low breaks the day range and exposes 0.7000
Close back above ema20 and the 0.70287 prior high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the spike high back into view
RBA decision 04:30 UTC and Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC; the guidance tone could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.70387 spike, inside 0.7007–0.7029 day range.
Monday opened on an 18-pip gap lower and spent Asia and London ranging 0.7007–0.7029. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.70387 spike high on Iran sanctions-relief headlines was a false break of the range top. Price has since printed lower highs and sits near 0.7017, around the 78.6% of the NY spike fib, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.70113 ny low exposes the 0.70073 london low and the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.70287 range top reopens the 0.70387 spike high
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
0.7007–0.7029 range with higher lows; spike above range top rejected.
Monday opened about 18 pips below Friday's 0.7025 close on the firmer USD. Price then held a 0.7007–0.7029 range through Asia and London, printing higher lows. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 0.7039 spike high on Iran sanctions-relief headlines failed, and late NY has faded back through the range top to the pre-spike base near 0.7016, around the 78.6% spike fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.7016, 0.7011, 0.7006
Resistance: 0.7023, 0.7029, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.7023 ema20 and 0.7029 range top reopens the 0.7034–0.7039 spike high
Loss of the pre-spike base at 0.7016 puts the 0.7011 swing low and higher-lows line in focus
Break of the higher-lows line exposes the 0.7006 day low and 0.7000 psych
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC: hike fully priced, guidance tone could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs after NY spike · RSI 49 · price 0.70217
Day range 0.7006–0.7029; lower highs pressing a flat 0.7020 base.
A NY-session spike to the 0.7039 spike high came on US-Iran sanctions-relief reports that softened the USD. It failed back into the day's range below the 0.7028 asia high. Late NY, lower highs are pressing the 0.7020 spike base, which sits at the 50% level of the day-low-to-spike-high fib, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70113, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7020 spike base (61.8% fib at 0.7019) exposes the london low at 0.7011
Loss of the 0.7011 london low puts the day low at 0.7006 and 0.7000 psych in view
Break of the lower-highs trendline and a close above the 0.7028 asia high reopens the 0.7039 spike high
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
Higher lows since London; NY false break above asian high, lower high at 0.7034.
Monday's gap down from Friday's 0.7025 close was filled in Asia. The NY spike to the 0.7039 session high came as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed USD gains, but it faded back under the 0.7028 asian high in a false break, leaving a lower high at 0.7034. Late NY price is flat at 0.7024 between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London-to-NY leg, with the 0.7020 swing low just below.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70113, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.70285, 0.7034, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7028 asian high reopens the 0.7034 lower high and the 0.7039 session high
Loss of the 0.7020 swing low exposes the 0.7011 pullback low and the higher-lows trendline
A break of the 0.7007 london low would undo the day's higher-low sequence
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (Asia session) could materially shift this read; ATR ~6 pips is likely to expand sharply
Post-spike consolidation below asian high, rising lows since London.
Week opened with an ~18-pip gap lower on USD strength, and the 0.7006–0.7028 Asian range has since been retraced. The NY spike to the 0.70387 session high was rejected within one bar, and a 0.7034 lower high followed. Late-NY price is compressing in a 3-pip band between the 0.7025 range base and the 0.7029 asian high, with rising lows intact from the 0.7007 London low through the 0.70113 ny low, and the 0.70201 swing low near the 61.8% of the spike leg.
Support: 0.70255, 0.70201, 0.70113
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.7034, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7029 asian high and 0.7034 lower high reopens the 0.70387 session high
Loss of the 0.7025 range base exposes the 0.70201 swing low; below the 0.70113 ny low the rising lows line breaks
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (hike fully priced, guidance decides) could materially shift this read during Asia session
Higher lows from 0.7006; false break above Asian high.
Asia filled Monday's gap-down from 0.7025. During NY hours, a 16:15 UTC spike broke the 0.7029 asian high and ran to the 0.7039 spike high as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the USD bid, but it was rejected and a lower high at 0.7034 followed. Price is back below 0.7029, near the 50% retrace of the spike and above the 0.7020 swing low and the line of rising lows.
Support: 0.7020, 0.7011, 0.7006
Resistance: 0.7029, 0.7034, 0.7039
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7029 asian high invalidates the false-break read, with the 0.7034 lower high and 0.7039 spike high above
Break of the 0.7020 swing low exposes the 0.7011 ny low and the rising lows line
Loss of 0.7011 puts the 0.7006 asian low and 0.7000 psych back in play
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (25bp hike fully priced) could materially shift this read; guidance language is the swing factor
17:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at Asian high · RSI 55 · price 0.70271
Higher lows from 0.7007; late NY spike to 0.7039 rejected, lower high at 0.7034.
Sunday's gap has been filled at 0.7025, and London and NY printed higher lows at 0.7007, 0.7011 and 0.7020 along the rising lows line. A late NY spike to the 0.7039 session high, alongside Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming the dollar, met rejection and was followed by a lower high at 0.7034. Price is back at the 0.7029 Asian high, the 38.2% of the NY swing fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.7025, 0.70205, 0.70113
Resistance: 0.70285, 0.7034, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7034 lower high reopens the 0.7039 session high
Failure to hold the 0.7025 gap fill, the 50% of the NY swing fib, puts the 0.7020 higher low in play
Break below the 0.7020 higher low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.7011 NY low
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% priced, guidance decisive) could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Two-way range, higher lows since London · RSI 54 · price 0.70281
0.7006–0.7029 day range; late-NY probe above failed back to asian high.
After the weekend gap lower, Monday ranged 0.7006–0.7029 through Asia and London. A 16:15 UTC spike, alongside Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming the dollar, hit the 0.7039 spike high but faded to the asian high near 0.7029. After London close price sits on that level with a higher low at 0.7021, holding the ny swing fib, and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 0.70207, 0.70113, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.7034, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7034 swing high reopens the 0.7039 spike high and undoes the false-break read
Loss of the 0.7021 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the ny low at 0.7011, then the london low at 0.7007
Repeated closes back under the asian high at 0.7029 keep the day's range intact
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC, with guidance against crowded AUD shorts, can reset the Asian range
Broke above day's range top; spike rejected, higher low at 0.7020.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 0.7025 close. The day held a 0.7007–0.7028 range, with the Asian high at the range top, until a late-NY spike to a 0.7039 session high that was rejected back to 0.7020. Buyers stepped in at that spike low, and price is back above the range top with rising lows from the 0.7007 day low intact. RSI(14) at 57 is mid-range; AUD is steady on a fully priced RBA hike while USD stays firm on Fed hike bets.
Support: 0.70285, 0.70201, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.7028 range top returns price to the day's range
Break of 0.7020 spike low undercuts the rising lows line
Close above 0.7039 session high extends the range break; the 0.7039 spike top is the 100% level on the spike fib
Loss of 0.7007 day low marks a lower-low
RBA decision and statement Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 50 · price 0.70229
0.7007–0.7029 day range; false break above day high rejected.
Sunday's gap down filled in Asia. London and NY have since chopped inside 0.7007–0.7029, with the london low at 0.70073 and the ny low at 0.70113 both holding. The 16:15 UTC spike to 0.70387 above the day high was fully rejected. Price is back near the 61.8% of the spike fib at 0.7022, just above the ny base at 0.7016, and RSI(14) is flat at 50.
Support: 0.7016, 0.70113, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, with USD hike pricing in focus, could shift this read
M15 close above the 0.70287 day high reopens the 0.70387 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.7016 ny base exposes the 0.70113 ny low and the 0.70073 london low
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major volatility risk for the range
A 23-pip bar after London close broke the 0.7016–0.7021 range, cleared the NY high at 0.7029 and the Asian range top, and printed a spike high at 0.7039. RSI(14) sits near 65. The weekend gap lower has been fully reversed, and higher lows off the London low at 0.7007 underpin the move ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70287, 0.7016, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.70387, 0.7050
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the NY high at 0.7029 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the range base at 0.7016, below the 61.8% fib near 0.7019, returns price to the day's range
Close above the spike high at 0.7039 opens the round number at 0.7050
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday breakout higher after range chop · RSI 68 · price 0.70346
Range break above 0.7029 range top, spike high 0.7039.
After the weekend gap down to 0.7007, the 16:15 UTC bar broke the day's 0.7006–0.7029 range. It cleared the Asian high, the NY high and Friday's 0.7031 to print a 0.7039 spike high. The feed shows no scheduled catalyst for the move. The 23-pip bar dwarfs the ~6-pip ATR, RSI(14) sits near 68, and price is holding just above the former range top after London close.
Support: 0.70287, 0.70218, 0.70113
Resistance: 0.70387, 0.7050
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7029 range top turns the move into a false break
A retrace toward the 61.8% spike fib at 0.7022 tests whether the breakout holds; the higher lows line and the ny low near 0.7011 sit below
Close above the 0.7039 spike high opens the 0.7050 round number
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Range-bound, fading from session high · RSI 41 · price 0.70165
0.7006–0.7029 day range, lower-high risk after second rejection at top.
The weekend gap down to 0.7006 filled during Asia. Supply capped 0.7028–0.7029 twice, at the Asian high and again at the NY session high. The NY pullback found demand at the 0.7011 ny low, and price now sits below ema20, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London rally, as USD firmness on Fed hike pricing holds AUD near 0.70.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7011 ny low exposes the 0.7007 london low and 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.7020 reopens a test of the 0.7029 session high
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could move USD late in the NY session
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC; guidance on further hikes could break the day range
16:03 UTC
Sideways, rising lows inside day range · RSI 45 · price 0.70184
Range 0.7006–0.7029, higher lows since London.
The weekend gap down from the fri close at 0.7025 filled in Asia, and Monday has ranged 0.7006–0.7029 since, with lows stepping up from the london low at 0.7007 to the ny low at 0.7011. NY poked the day high at 0.7029, met rejection and fell back to the ny low. Price is now coiling at the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg, just under both EMAs, as firm USD on Fed hike pricing caps the upside.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7011 ny low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the london low at 0.7007, then 0.7000 psych
M15 close above the 0.7029 day high invalidates the range read, with the fri close at 0.7025 capping first
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Sideways, mild downside drift since NY rejection · RSI 42 · price 0.70171
Range inside Asian 0.7006–0.7028 band, higher lows from London.
AUDUSD gapped lower at the open on firm USD, filled the gap in Asia and has since ranged inside the Asian band. NY poked marginally above the Asian high to a 0.7029 session high, was rejected to a 0.7011 NY low, and is now pinned near 0.7017 as the market squares up ahead of the RBA. RSI(14) sits near 42. London low 0.7007 and the NY low form a rising trendline of higher lows beneath the market, while the 0.7021 bounce high caps the late-session drift.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70287
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.7021 bounce high reopens a test of the 0.7029 session high.
A break of the 0.7011 NY low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.7007 London low and the 0.7000 psych level.
Price is sitting near the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY swing; holding there keeps the range read intact.
Fed's Cook speaks at 17:15 UTC today, a possible catalyst in thin late-NY trade.
The RBA decision at 04:30 UTC Tuesday, with the press conference at 05:30 UTC, could reset the Asian range. A 4.60% hike is fully priced, so the guidance matters more than the move itself.
15:31 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 44 · price 0.70181
0.7007–0.7029 day range; NY false break of asian high, higher low at 0.7011.
Monday's gap-down open filled during Asia, and the pair has since held a 0.7007–0.7029 range. Early NY poked 0.7029 by less than a pip before a rejection back to the 0.7011 ny low, which printed a higher low above the 0.7007 london low; price sits at the 50% fib of the London-to-NY swing, below both EMAs, with AUD pinned near 0.70 ahead of Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70253, 0.70287, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7025 lower high and the 0.7029 asian high breaks the day range; 0.7042 friday high is the next reference
Loss of 0.7011 ny low, and then 0.7007 london low, exposes the 0.7000 psych level and breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could move USD during the NY session
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% priced); guidance and SMP tone can break the range either way
15:17 UTC
Range-bound, fading from session high · RSI 48 · price 0.70179
0.7006–0.7029 intraday range; false break above Asian high, lower high forming.
NY hours briefly pushed past the Asian high of 0.70283 to a 0.70287 session high, then reversed 17 pips to the 0.70113 NY low. Price is back at 0.7018 mid-range, just under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 48 as the pair stays pinned near 0.70 ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70239, 0.70287, 0.70423
What it said to watch
Break below the ny low at 0.70113 exposes the london low at 0.70073 and the 0.7000 psych level
Recovery above the london high at 0.70239 reopens the 0.70287 session high
M15 close above the 0.70287 session high voids the false break read and brings the friday high at 0.70423 into view
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.7006–0.7029 day range; NY false break of Asian high rejected, higher lows intact since London.
AUD/USD gapped below the 0.7025 fri close on the USD-bid Monday open and has held a 0.7006–0.7029 range since, with the 0.7006 day low set in Asia. NY poked 0.4 pips above the Asian high to the 0.70287 session high and was rejected to a 0.7011 ny low. Price is back at 0.7019, near the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg and hugging EMA20/50, ahead of Fed speaker Cook and the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7011 ny low breaks the rising lows from the 0.7007 london low and exposes the 0.7006 day low
Recovery above the 0.7025 fri close brings the 0.7029 session high back into play; acceptance above it invalidates the range read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC are the main event risk for the Asian range
14:47 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from session high · RSI 41 · price 0.70149
False break above Asian high, lower high forming below 0.7025.
The NY session rally from the 0.7007 session low poked 0.70287, a pip above the Asian high, and was rejected. Price has since slipped back through the 0.7018 ny swing low, the ny rising line and the 61.8% of the NY leg, with RSI(14) near 41. Monday's gap down from the 0.7025 friday close was filled but not held as USD stays firm on hawkish Fed repricing.
Support: 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70179, 0.70249, 0.70287
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7007 session low exposes the 0.7000 round number
Recovery above the 0.7018 ny swing low and the broken ny rising line neutralises the rejection
M15 close above the 0.70287 session high turns the false break into a range break
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone; the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the larger range risk
14:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 60 · price 0.7024
Range 0.7006–0.7029, higher lows since 10:15 UTC, capped at range top.
The weekend gap was filled during Asia. London's 0.7007 low held just above the 0.7006 Asian low, and higher lows since have carried price into the NY session, where a poke to a 0.70287 session high was met with rejection just above the 0.7028 Asian high. Price is rotating around 0.7024 early in NY hours, with USD firm on Fed hike pricing and AUD pinned ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70179, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7029 session high breaks the Asian range top and exposes the friday high at 0.7042
Loss of the 0.7018 higher low (50% fib) breaks the higher-lows trendline; below the london low at 0.7007, the 0.7000 round number is next
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Range, upper half, early NY · RSI 63 · price 0.70249
0.7006–0.7029 day range, higher lows since London.
Monday's roughly 18-pip gap below Friday's 0.7025 close was filled during Asia. Since then the pair has ranged 0.7006–0.7029, with the 0.7007 London day low holding above the Asian low. Early NY poked marginally through the Asian high to a 0.7029 day high before stalling, leaving price back at the Friday close as a firm USD on Fed hike pricing meets RBA hike bets.
Support: 0.70179, 0.70073
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7029 day high breaks the Asian-range cap and exposes the 0.7042 friday high
Loss of the 0.7018 swing low breaks the rising support from the London low
Break of the 0.7007 day low opens the 0.7000 psych level
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the NY session read
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the dominant event risk for the next Asia session
14:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.70252
Higher lows off london low, capped at Asian high.
Monday's weekend gap down from 0.7025 is now fully filled. Early NY printed a marginal session high at 0.70287, just above the 0.70283 Asian high, before closing back below it, while the higher low at 0.70179 held near the 50% retrace of the rally from the london low. AUD is holding up despite firm USD and elevated US yields as the market positions into Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70179, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.7031, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70287 session high turns the rejection into a range break and opens the friday range top at 0.7031, then the 0.70423 friday high
Failure to hold the 0.70179 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the london low at 0.70073, with the 0.7000 round number below
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since late London · RSI 59 · price 0.70235
22-pip session range 0.7006–0.7028; early-NY higher low at 0.7018 under a lower high at 0.7027.
The weekend gap lower on broad USD strength was filled in Asia. London sold twice toward the 0.7007 london low but held above the Asian low at 0.7006, and the late-London rally met rejection at 0.7027, just under the 0.7028 asian high. Early NY is holding a higher low at the 0.7018 ny low near the 50% retrace, with RSI(14) around 59 and AUD pinned into tomorrow's RBA.
Support: 0.70179, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70268, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 asian high breaks the session range and exposes the 0.7042 friday high
Loss of the 0.7018 ny low breaks the higher-lows trendline; below the 0.7007 london low, 0.7000 psych comes into view
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC, is the main event risk to this range
Inside Asian range 0.7006–0.7028; lower high at 0.7027 after higher low at 0.7007.
The rebound from the 0.7007 London low stalled at a 0.7027 session high early in NY. That leaves a lower high under the 0.7028 Asian high, which already filled the weekend gap lower. Price is back on the 0.7020 pivot low, close to the 38.2% retrace of the rebound, and still inside the Asian range as firm US yields cap AUD ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70268, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and the Asian range
Loss of the 0.7020 pivot low exposes the 50% rebound fib near 0.7017 and then the 0.7007 london low
Break of 0.7006 and the 0.7000 psych level would resolve the Asian range lower
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range 0.7006–0.7028; London lows held above Asian low.
Monday opened with an 18-pip gap down that was filled during Asia, with the Asian high at 0.7028 marking the session peak. London printed two dips (0.7011, then the 0.7007 london low) that held above the 0.7006 Asian low. The rally out of the second dip met rejection at the 0.7027 session high just under the Asian high, and early NY is easing toward the 0.7020 ny low as the USD holds firm on yields ahead of RBA.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70268, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.7042 friday high
Loss of the 0.7020 ny low puts the 0.7015–0.7017 fib 50–61.8% zone of the late-London rally in play
Break of the 0.7007 london low reopens the Asian low and 0.7000 psych
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Range, NY rebound into range top · RSI 57 · price 0.7023
0.7006–0.7028 day range; double low at 0.7006/0.7007, NY higher low.
Monday opened with an 18-pip gap lower from Friday's 0.7025 close on the firm USD. Asia filled the gap up to the 0.7028 Asian high, then London sold back to the 0.7007 London low, holding just above the 0.7006 Asian low. Early NY rebounded from that double low to a 0.7027 NY high and is now pressing the range top near the ~0.7024 200dma. RSI(14) ~57, and ATR is a tight 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.70201, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70268, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7027 NY high and 0.7028 Asian high breaks the day range; the next reference is the 0.7042 Friday high
Holding the 0.7020 pullback low keeps the NY rising-low line and the NY rally fib 38.2% (~0.7019) intact
Failure back through the 0.7007 London low exposes the 0.7000 psych level and a break of the double bottom
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and presser at 05:30 UTC are the main event risk for this range
12:47 UTC
Range-bound, bounce off London low stalling · RSI 59 · price 0.70228
Inside Asian range 0.7006–0.7028; London swing 0.7007–0.7027.
The weekend gap from 0.7025 was filled in Asia, and price is still inside the Asian range of 0.7006–0.7028. A 19-pip rally from the London low at 0.7007 met rejection at the 0.7027 session high into the London-NY transition, with firm US yields and hawkish Fed remarks keeping AUD heavy ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.7018, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70268, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.7042 friday high
Loss of the ema20 near 0.7018 puts the London swing midpoint 0.7017 and the 0.7007 london low back in play
Break of 0.7006 opens the 0.7000 psych level
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Range-bound, bounce off London low · RSI 60 · price 0.70221
Asian range 0.70062–0.70283 intact; higher lows since the 0.70073 London low.
Monday opened on an 18-pip gap below Friday's 0.7025 close, which filled during Asia into the 0.70283 Asian high. London printed a lower low at 0.70073 but stayed above the 0.70062 Asian low. The NY-open rally around Bowman's remarks stalled at 0.70268, a rejection just under the Asian high, and price sits mid-range above the fib 50% at 0.7017 with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.7017, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70268, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70283 Asian high breaks the day's range and exposes the Friday high at 0.7042
Loss of the fib 50% at 0.7017 puts the 0.70073 London low and 0.7000 psych back in focus
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (25bp hike to 4.60% priced) could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 62 · price 0.70235
Inside Asian range 0.7006–0.7028, pressing gap fill.
The weekly open gapped about 18 pips lower. The London selloff then held at 0.7007, the London low, just above the 0.7006 Asian low, while hawkish Fed talk kept USD firm. Since 10:15 UTC, higher lows have lifted price back to 0.7025, closing the gap to Friday's close with the first hour of NY underway. Price remains inside the Asian range, with the 0.7028 Asian high overhead.
Support: 0.70146, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7025, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7028 Asian high breaks the session range and puts the 0.7042 Friday high in play
Rejection at the 0.7025 gap fill plus loss of the 0.7015 higher low would return price toward the London low
A break of the 0.7007 London low and 0.7000 psych would take price out of the bottom of the Asian range
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could shift USD intraday; the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the larger event risk
12:02 UTC
Intraday lower highs, rebounding off London low · RSI 53 · price 0.70184
Descending highs from 0.70283; 0.70073 low holding, price retesting trendline.
Asia filled the Monday gap lower and printed its high at 0.70283. London then set lower highs and a session low at 0.70073 as hawkish Fedspeak kept USD firm. Price has recovered into 0.7019–0.7020 ahead of NY, testing the descending trendline and the 50–61.8% fib of the Asia high to London low leg, with RSI neutral and the EMAs flat.
Support: 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline and the 0.70239 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.70283 asia high back in view
Rejection at the trendline keeps the london low at 0.70073 in play, with the 0.7000 psych level beneath
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, now in progress, could shift the USD leg in the first hour of NY
Lower highs off Asian high; bounce into 61.8% of London leg.
Monday's gap below Friday's 0.7025 close filled in Asia to the 0.7028 asian high. London then printed lower highs and a 0.7007 london low as Fed-driven USD strength persisted. The late-London bounce is retesting the 0.7017 lower high at the 61.8% retrace, with ATR near 4 pips ahead of the NY open.
Support: 0.70073, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7017 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7024 london high, then the lower-high trendline near 0.7020
Failure below the 0.7007 london low exposes the 0.7006 asian low and the 0.7000 psych level
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.70138
Lower highs and lower lows through London, bounce off session low.
The Monday gap down to 0.7006 (gap low) on the firmer USD was filled in Asia up to the asian high at 0.7028. London then printed a london high at 0.7024 and a lower high at 0.7017 before a new session low at 0.7007. Price is bouncing to 0.7014, capped just under EMA20 and the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 40 and the 0.7000 psych level 14 pips below.
Support: 0.70073, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7017 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain and exposes the 0.7024 london high
Failure to hold the 0.7007 session low opens the 0.7006 gap low and the 0.7000 psych level
A close above the descending trendline from the 0.7028 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC (Cook 17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 0.70115
Lower highs from 0.7028 Asia peak, pressing session low.
Asia ran from the 0.7006 asia low to a 0.7028 asia high. London then printed lower highs at the 0.7024 london high and the 0.7017 lower high, and set a fresh 0.7007 session low as hawkish Fed talk kept USD bid. Price sits just above the asia low and 0.7000 psych, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.70073, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7017 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; the asia high at 0.7028 caps above that
Loss of the 0.7007 session low and 0.7006 asia low exposes 0.7000 psych
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD leg
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this structure
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.70126
Lower highs 0.7028 → 0.7024 → 0.7017; lows stepping down to 0.7007.
AUDUSD gapped about 18 pips lower at the weekly open on USD firmness from hawkish Fedspeak and oil. Asia filled the gap to the 0.7028 asia high, where it met rejection. London printed lower highs at 0.7024 and 0.7017 and a session low at 0.7007, just above the 0.7006 weekly open, with price holding below both EMAs into the late-London hour.
Support: 0.70073, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7007 session low and 0.7006 weekly open exposes the 0.7000 psych figure
Close back above the 0.7017 lower high breaks the micro-downtrend; 0.7024 london high, also near the 200dma, is the next cap
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC during early NY hours could extend the USD leg
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the main event risk for AUD after the NY session
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 42 · price 0.70105
Weekend gap filled into Asian high, then lower highs and lower lows since 04:15 UTC.
AUDUSD gapped about 18 pips lower at the open, filled the gap into the 0.7028 asian high, then saw rejection there. Price has since printed lower highs at the 0.7024 london high and the 0.7017 lower high, sliding to a 0.7007 session low as firm US yields and hawkish Fedspeak keep USD bid. Price is below EMA20/EMA50 and just above the 0.7006 asian low; RSI(14) near 42 is not stretched, and the 0.7000 psych figure sits beneath.
Support: 0.70073, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.7006 asian low exposes the 0.7000 psych figure, which the digest flags as a pivot for AUD
M15 close above the 0.7017 lower high breaks the London trendline and the lower-high sequence
Recovery above the 0.7024 london high, the 61.8% retracement zone, neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD during NY hours; RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC
10:32 UTC
Downtrend since Asian high, pressing lows · RSI 42 · price 0.70086
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; price testing the Asian low.
Monday gapped about 18 pips lower from Friday's 0.70249 close and filled the gap in Asia to a 0.70283 Asian high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at the 0.70239 London high and 0.70174, and it is now back at 0.70073, just above the 0.70062 Asian low, with a firm USD on hawkish Fed pricing capping rebounds.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70062 asian low exposes the 0.7000 round number
Reclaim of the 0.70174 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence; 0.70178 is the 50% asian high fib
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read, with the RBA decision due Tue 04:30 UTC
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs from Asia peak · RSI 39 · price 0.70098
Lower highs through London, pressing gap-open day low.
AUDUSD gapped about 18 pips lower from Friday's 0.70249 close. The Asian rebound stalled at 0.70283 (asian high), and London has since printed lower highs at 0.70239 and 0.70174 as hawkish Fed pricing and firm yields keep USD bid. Price is now sitting just above the 0.70062 day low. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR is about 4.5 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.70062 day low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close above the 0.70174 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 0.70239 london high would neutralise the session downtrend
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could shift USD tone during NY hours
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for this read
10:02 UTC
Sideways, soft lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.70144
Lower highs from the Asian high, compressing above the London low.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 0.7015 low. Asia recovered from the 0.7006 monday low to a 0.7028 asian high on the USD-firm, RBA-hike backdrop. London has faded that move with a lower high at the 0.7024 london high. Mid-London, price sits on the 61.8% of the Asian range fib near 0.7014, holding above the 0.7011 london low, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.70108, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70174, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7017 micro high, then the 0.7024 london high, would break the lower-high trendline read
Failure to hold the 0.7011 london low exposes the 0.7006 monday low and the 0.7000 psych figure
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone into NY; the RBA decision on Tue 04:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Lower high after Asia peak, compressing above London low.
Monday gapped lower to the 0.70062 Asia low, and Asia filled the gap to a 0.70283 Asia high on hawkish RBA bets before firm USD pulled it back. London opened with a drop to the 0.70108 London low, and the bounce stalled at the 0.70239 London high, a lower high on the trendline. Price is holding near the 50% fib of the Asia move, just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral around 47.
Support: 0.70108, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70239 London high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.70283 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.70108 London low exposes the 0.70062 Asia low and the 0.7000 psych level
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could shift USD tone during NY hours; RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the larger event risk
09:31 UTC
Sideways, soft below EMAs · RSI 46 · price 0.7016
London range 0.7011–0.7024, lower highs off the Asian high.
Monday opened with a gap down from Friday's 0.7025 close as USD firmed on hawkish Fedspeak. Asia recovered to the 0.7028 asian high but stalled short of a full gap fill. Mid-London, price is range-bound between the 0.7011 london low and the 0.7024 london high, with a lower-high trendline capping from the Asian high and RSI(14) neutral near 46 ahead of tomorrow's RBA.
Support: 0.7011, 0.7006, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7024, 0.7028
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7024 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.7028 asian high
Failure to hold 0.7011 london low exposes the 0.7006 asian low and 0.7000 psych
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could shift the read; RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC likely keeps the range compressed until then
Lower highs inside Asian range, London low untested.
Monday opened with an 18-pip gap lower. Asia filled it to the asian high at 0.7028, then London sold back to a london low at 0.7011, and the 08:00 UTC bounce met rejection at 0.7024 for a lower high. Price sits at 0.7013, just under the friday low of 0.7015 and below both EMAs, with a firm USD and US yields above 5% pressing AUD into Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.70108, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 0.7011 opens the asian low at 0.7006 and the 0.7000 psych figure
A close back above the friday low at 0.7015 and the lower-high trendline toward the london high at 0.7024 would neutralise the drift
A break of the asian high at 0.7028 invalidates the lower-high read
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift USD tone during the NY session
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC keeps the 0.7000 figure in focus into Asia
AUD/USD opened the week on a gap below Friday's 0.7025 close. The Asia session recovered to the 0.7028 Asian high, about half the retrace of the week-low rally, before London printed a 0.7011 low and a 0.7024 lower high. Price is fading back toward the London low after that rejection, with RSI(14) near 44 and both EMAs overhead, as a firm USD and pre-RBA positioning keep AUD pinned above the 0.7000 round number.
Support: 0.70108, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.7011 London low exposes the 0.7006 week low and the 0.7000 round number
An M15 close above the 0.7024 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.7028 Asian high
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) during NY hours could extend the USD bid
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.70163
Asian gap-fill rally rejected; London printing lower highs above 0.7011.
Monday opened with a weekend gap down to the 0.7006 asian low, below Friday's 0.7025 close. Asia filled the gap to the 0.7028 asian high. Early London faded that move to a 0.7011 london low near the 78.6% retrace of the asian leg fib, and the bounce stalled at a 0.7024 lower high, with USD firm on oil and hawkish Fed pricing.
Support: 0.70111, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70239, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7024 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.7028 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7011 london low exposes the 0.7006 asian low and the 0.7000 psych figure
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC in NY hours could shift the USD leg of this read
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the larger pending catalyst for AUD
08:32 UTC
Sideways, inside the Asian range · RSI 45 · price 0.70204
Weekend gap filled; lower high under Asian high, higher low above Asian low.
The weekend gap lower came on a firm USD (Iran headlines, Fed hike bets) and was filled during the Asia session. The Asian high at 0.70283 then capped, and the London open dipped to 0.70108 before rebounding to 0.70239. Price is hovering at the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia-London fib, still inside the Asian range and below a lower-highs line drawn from the Asian high.
Support: 0.70175, 0.70108, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70239, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 0.70239 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the asian high at 0.70283 back in play
Loss of the pullback low at 0.70175 exposes the london low at 0.70108
Break below the asian low at 0.70062 takes price out of the Asian range toward the 0.7000 psych level
Friday high at 0.70423 is the next reference if the Asian range resolves higher
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The Monday gap down to 0.7006 filled during the Asia session, but supply capped the Asian high at 0.7028. London opened with a dip to 0.7011, a higher low above the Asian low, and price has recovered about 75% of that drop to test the London high at 0.7024. The pair is still inside the Asian range, ATR is near 4 pips, and a firm USD on Fed hike pricing keeps the range tight into RBA.
Support: 0.70108, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70239, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 0.7028 breaks the Asian range and exposes the friday high at 0.7042
Failure at the london high at 0.7024 keeps the London dip retracement in play toward 0.7011
A break of the london low at 0.7011 undercuts the higher low and points to the asian low at 0.7006, then the 0.7000 psych level
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major catalyst; hawkish or 'done' guidance could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Two-way, rebounding inside Asian range · RSI 46 · price 0.70209
Asian range 0.7006–0.7028; London higher low at 0.7011.
The weekend gap down to the 0.7006 asian low was filled during Asia, capping at the 0.7028 asian high before the London open slide to a 0.7011 london low. That low held above the Asian base, and the 07:45 UTC bar retraced about 58% of the drop to 0.7021. The USD bid from weekend Iran/oil headlines and Fed hike bets keeps the pair pinned just above 0.7000 psych.
Support: 0.70108, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.7011 london low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.7006 asian low and 0.7000 psych
Acceptance above the 61.8% retrace (~0.7022) brings the 0.7028 asian high into play; a break there reopens the 0.7042 friday high
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 31 · price 0.70142
Asia gap-fill rally fully faded; London open printed a new session low at 0.70108.
The weekend gap lower was filled in Asia, with a rally to the 0.70283 asian high just above Friday's close. That high was rejected, and a lower-high sequence has since retraced about 79% of the Asia rally, with the London open pressing to a 0.70108 session low as USD/yield strength weighs into Tuesday's RBA. Price is holding near the 61.8% fib with RSI(14) around 31, and the descending trendline capped the 07:30 UTC bounce near 0.7016.
Support: 0.70108, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70202, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70108 session low exposes the 0.70062 asian low, then the 0.7000 psych floor
Close above the descending trendline and the 0.7020 breakdown shelf invalidates the lower-high sequence, with the 0.70283 asian high above
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (25bp hike priced); positioning into the event and US 10y yields above 5% could shift this read
07:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after Asia rally faded · RSI 31 · price 0.7014
Lower highs from 0.7028 Asian high, retraced ~78.6% of Asia rally.
The weekend gap lower was filled during the Asia session, with the rally reaching the gap fill near 0.7025. It was rejected at the 0.7028 Asian high, and lower highs since have taken price back to a 0.7011 London low at the London open, the 78.6% level of the Asian rally fib, as firm US yields keep AUD heavy into Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.7011, 0.7006, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.7025, 0.7028
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7011 london low exposes the 0.7006 asian low and the 0.7000 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.7020 breakdown level breaks the lower-high sequence
Asian rally fib 61.8% at ~0.7015 is the first overhead test of the current bounce
US 10y yield strength and positioning into the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could extend the move either way
07:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 29 · price 0.70112
Lower-high chain off the 0.70283 Asian high; London open broke the 0.7016 shelf.
Asia filled Sunday's weekend gap up to the 0.70283 asian high, met rejection and has printed lower highs since. The London open extended the slide through the 0.7016 broken shelf to 0.7011, about 77% back into the Asian leg, with RSI(14) near 29. The backdrop is firm USD on rising US yields and Fed hike bets ahead of Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7016, 0.70202, 0.70283
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.70062 asian low exposes the 0.7000 psych floor and confirms a fresh intraday lower-low
A recovery above the 0.7016 broken shelf and the 0.70202 lower high would neutralise the lower-high chain
A move back to the 0.70283 asian high would negate the Asian leg retracement
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Tuesday's Fed speakers could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 32 · price 0.70154
Lower highs since 0.7028, testing Friday's low.
The weekend gap lower to the 0.7006 Asian low was filled during Asia, but the rally stalled at the 0.7028 Asian high just above Friday's close. Since then there has been a steady run of lower highs back to the 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally, with Friday's low at 0.7015 under test into London open. RSI(14) is near 32 as firmer US yields weigh ahead of Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.7015, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70202, 0.70249, 0.70283
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.7015 Friday low exposes the Asian low at 0.7006 and the 0.7000 psych level
A break above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.7020 lower high neutralises the intraday downtrend
A reclaim of the Friday close at 0.7025 puts the 0.7028 Asian high back in play
The RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asian gap-fill rally · RSI 40 · price 0.70194
Lower highs since Asian high, holding above session low.
AUD gapped about 18 pips lower at the weekend open on firmer US yields and oil. The Asia session filled the gap, but the rally was rejected at the 0.7028 Asian high, and lower highs since have pushed price back below both EMAs into the London open. The 0.7016 session low is holding for now, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.7016, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7025, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7016 session low exposes the 0.7006 Asian low and 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.7025 Fri close breaks the lower-high trendline and re-opens the 0.7028 Asian high
Move through the Asian high brings Friday's NY high at 0.7042 (friday high) back into view
London open is imminent and could extend or break the Asian range
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (25bp hike priced) is the next major risk for this read
06:32 UTC
Short-term pullback after gap fill · RSI 36 · price 0.70182
Lower highs and lows inside the Asian range.
The weekend gap down to the 0.7006 Asian low was filled during Asia. The rally stalled at the 0.7028 Asian high, and a run of lower highs has since pulled price back to the 0.7016 swing low, near the 50% retrace. Price sits just under the ema20 into London open, with AUD heavy on firmer US yields ahead of Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.7016, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70214, 0.70249, 0.70283
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the lower-highs line and the 0.7025 friday close reopens the 0.7028 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7016 swing low exposes the 0.7006 asian low and the 0.7000 psych level
London open in ~30 min typically expands the Asian range; a break either side resets the read
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major risk; pre-positioning could distort intraday structure
06:16 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 0.70184
Lower highs off 0.7028 Asian high, retracing the gap-fill rally.
Monday opened with a gap down to the 0.7006 Asian low as US yields and hawkish Fed pricing stayed firm. Asia then filled the gap and printed an Asian high at 0.7028, but a run of lower highs has pulled price back to the 0.7018 pullback low, near the 50% fib of that rally, with RSI(14) at 41 heading into London open. The Friday low at 0.7015 is the next reference below, and the Friday high at 0.7042 remains the upper bound.
Support: 0.70176, 0.7015, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.7025, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7015 friday low exposes the 0.7006 asian low and the 0.7000 psych floor
Recovery above the 0.7025 gap fill and the 0.7028 asian high negates the lower-high sequence
A sustained move above 0.7028 brings the 0.7042 friday high back into range
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the main event risk; ranges may stay compressed ahead of it
Gap-down filled, lower highs since 04:15 UTC, holding 38.2% fib.
The Monday gap-down to 0.70062 was bought through Asia and closed above Friday's close, capping at the asia high 0.70283 before a drift back to a fib 38.2 hold near 0.70198 ahead of London open. The pair is steadying above 0.7000 psych as firm US yields weigh into Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.70198, 0.7015, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.70198 fib 38.2 exposes the friday low at 0.7015 and then 0.7000 psych
Reclaim of the 0.70283 asia high reopens the friday high at 0.70423
London open is the first test of the Asian range; RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Asian up-leg stalled, pulling back · RSI 50 · price 0.70209
Asian higher-low chain broken, minor lower low at 0.7020.
Monday opened about 18 pips below the 0.7025 friday close. Asia climbed from the 0.7006 asian low to fill the gap, then met rejection just under 0.7030 at the 0.7028 session high. Price has since broken the Asian trendline and sits on the 38.2% fib near 0.7020, back below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50, as USD/yield strength keeps AUD heavy into Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.70186, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70283, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7019 swing low exposes the 50–61.8% fib at 0.7017–0.7015
Recovery above the 0.7025 friday close and 0.7028 session high reinstates the Asian up-leg, with the 0.7042 friday high next above
London open in ~75 min tests the Asian range; loss of the 0.7006 asian low puts 0.7000 psych in play
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Asia recovery from gap-down, momentum stalling · RSI 57 · price 0.70231
Higher-low chain off 0.7006, gap filled, lower highs under 0.7028.
Monday Asia opened with a ~18-pip gap down to the 0.7006 session low as USD and yields stayed firm. Price then built a higher-low chain, filled the gap to Friday's 0.7025 close and was rejected at the 0.7028 session high. It is now easing onto the asian hl cluster at 0.7021, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR under 3 pips late in the Asia session, ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7015, 0.7006
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7036, 0.7042
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7021 asian hl exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.7020, then the 0.7015 friday low
An M15 close above the 0.7028 session high reopens the 0.7036 prior high and the 0.7042 friday high
A drop back through the 0.7006 session low puts the 0.7000 handle in play
RBA decision on Tue 04:30 UTC keeps ranges compressed until then; guidance on further hikes could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 71 · price 0.70264
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; weekend gap filled.
The week opened with a gap lower on USD and yield strength, but Asia session demand stepped in at the asian low of 0.7006, just above 0.7000. Price then built a steady HH/HL chain that filled the gap back to the friday close at 0.7025. It is now stalling at the 0.7028 session high with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.70249, 0.70209, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70283, 0.7031, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7028 session high reopens Friday's prior range top near 0.7031, with the friday high at 0.7042 beyond
Failure to hold the friday close at 0.7025 and the asian trendline puts the 0.7021 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 0.7020 in focus
Loss of the asian low at 0.7006 would negate the Asia recovery and expose 0.7000
London open in under 2h may test whether the Asian range holds
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 68 · price 0.70274
Higher-low chain through Asia, weekend gap filled.
AUD opened Asia gapped about 18 pips below the 0.70249 Friday close on firmer US yields. It carved an Asian low at 0.70062, then a steady higher-low chain along the Asia trendline filled the gap. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the 0.70283 Asian high just under the 0.70312 Friday range high, with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR(14) about 2.9 pips.
Support: 0.70249, 0.70227, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70283, 0.70312, 0.70423
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.70227 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and the higher-low chain
A close back below the 0.70249 Friday close puts the gap fill in question, with 38.2% fib support near 0.7020
An M15 close above the 0.70312 Friday range high opens the 0.70423 Friday high
London open could set a new session range around the 0.70283 Asian high
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% priced), about 24h out; positioning into it may compress ranges
04:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia open · RSI 71 · price 0.70266
Weekend gap lower filled; higher-low chain from 0.70062 capped at the Asia high.
Asia opened with an 18-pip gap below Friday's 0.70249 close on the yield-driven USD bid. Buyers held the 0.70062 Asia low above 0.7000, and a steady higher-low trendline has since filled the gap into a 0.70283 Asia high. RSI(14) near 71, ranges tight with ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 0.70249, 0.70227, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70283, 0.70307, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.70249 gap fill and 0.70227 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Close above the 0.70283 Asia high opens Friday's late range top at 0.70307, then the 0.70423 friday high
Deeper pullback toward the 50% of the Asia leg fib (0.70173) would put the 0.70062 Asia low back in focus
London open is the next liquidity test of the Asia range; RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the main scheduled catalyst
04:16 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, testing gap fill · RSI 66 · price 0.70271
Higher-low chain off the Monday gap low; price back at Friday's close under the Friday late range.
Monday opened on an ~18-pip gap down to the 0.7006 gap low. The Asia rally has since stepped up in a clean higher-low chain along rising support and filled the gap back to Friday's 0.7025 close. Price now sits just under the Friday range top near 0.7031, RSI(14) at 66, with the tape in RBA-watch mode and a hike fully priced.
Support: 0.70227, 0.70128, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70313, 0.70359, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7031 friday range top opens the 0.7036 london high, then the 0.7042 friday high
Break of the 0.7023 higher low and the rising support line would stall the Asia rally structure, with 0.7013 asia pivot next
Loss of the 0.7006 gap low exposes 0.7000 psych and invalidates the gap-fill read
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (hike to 4.60% priced): the guidance tone could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at gap fill · RSI 66 · price 0.70242
Higher-low chain off the Monday gap low; capped at session high after the gap fill.
Asia opened Monday with an 18-pip gap lower to the 0.7006 session low on firmer US yields and hawkish Fed talk. A steady higher-low chain has since filled the gap to Friday's 0.7025 close. Price is stalling just under the 0.7026 session high with RSI(14) near 66, holding above the 0.7021 breakout from the early spike high.
Support: 0.70209, 0.70137, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70259, 0.70307, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7021 breakout and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain; the 0.7014 swing low is next
Close above the 0.7026 session high puts the 0.7031 friday cap in play, with the 0.7042 friday high beyond
Loss of the 0.7006 session low would reopen the gap-down read
Rejection at the gap fill during the London open would point to a retrace toward the fib 50% near 0.7016
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major catalyst and could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling at gap fill · RSI 60 · price 0.70242
Higher-low chain off the 0.7006 session low; weekend gap filled at the Friday close.
AUD gapped about 18 pips lower at the Monday open on firmer US yields, bottomed at the 0.7006 session low, then built a steady higher-low chain through the Asia session. That chain has filled the gap back to the Friday close. Price is now pausing just under the 0.7026 session high with RSI(14) near 60, and the rising trendline and the 0.7022 higher low sit directly below.
Support: 0.70227, 0.70181, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70255, 0.7031, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7026 session high exposes the 0.7031 prior pivot, then the 0.7042 Friday high
A break of the rising trendline and the 0.7022 higher low ends the Asia higher-low chain, with the fib 38.2 at 0.7018 the next reference
Loss of the 0.7006 session low reopens 0.7000 psych
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC press conference are the main event risk for this structure
03:31 UTC
Uptrend off the weekend gap low, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 0.70244
Higher-low chain through Asia, pressing session high at gap fill.
AUDUSD gapped about 18 pips lower at the open on firmer US yields and Fed hawkishness, but Asia has built steady higher lows off the 0.7006 session low and is now at the gap fill at 0.7025, Friday's close. RSI(14) near 63 is cooling from the last push, and the 0.7021 prior high sits just below as the first support.
Support: 0.7021, 0.70137, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70255, 0.7031, 0.70423
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.7025 gap fill, followed by a close back below the 0.7021 prior high, would stall the higher-low chain
A hold above the gap fill brings the 0.7031 fri swing into view, with the 0.7042 fri high above
A break of the 0.7014 swing low, which also sits on the rising trendline, breaks the Asia uptrend and exposes the 0.7006 session low
London open in roughly 3.5h is the next test of the Asian range; the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the major event risk
03:17 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the gap low · RSI 63 · price 0.70254
Higher-low chain through Asia, weekend gap filled, pressing Friday's close.
Monday opened with an 18-pip gap lower to the 0.7006 gap low on firmer US yields and hawkish Fed commentary. The Asia session has since filled the gap, stacking higher lows back to Friday's 0.7025 close and clearing the 0.7021 asia high with RSI(14) near 63. Supply capped Friday's late NY trade at 0.7031, and the 0.7042 friday high sits above.
Support: 0.7021, 0.7013, 0.7006
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.7042
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.7021 asia high would turn the breakout into a false break
A pullback that holds the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asia leg (0.7018–0.7016) keeps the higher-low chain intact
Loss of the 0.7013 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.7031 late cap opens the path to the 0.7042 friday high
A return to the 0.7006 gap low would reopen the weekend gap
The RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the Asia low, testing the weekend gap fill.
Mid-Asia session, AUD/USD has climbed from the 0.7006 asia low in a higher-low chain along a rising trendline and now sits at 0.7023, just shy of the 0.7025 gap fill level (Friday's close). With RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) around 4 pips, the move is a slow grind, and the 0.7006–0.7023 Asian range is still developing as positioning stays cautious into Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70137, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.7031, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7025 completes the gap fill and brings the 0.7031 prior swing, then the 0.7042 friday high, into view
Failure to hold the 0.7014 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.7006 asia low puts the 0.7000 psych level back in play
Shift in US yields or Fed commentary ahead of London open could reverse the Asia-session climb
RBA decision Tue 29 Sep 04:30 UTC is the next major AUD event risk
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 62 · price 0.70212
HH/HL chain through Asia, pressing into Friday-close gap fill.
Monday opened with a gap down from the 0.7025 fri close, and early selling on firmer US yields ran into the asian low at 0.7006. Since then the Asia session has built a steady higher-low chain along the rising tl back to 0.7021, with the swing low at 0.7013 and higher low at 0.7019 marking the steps, leaving the gap nearly filled. Price is hugging EMA50 with RSI(14) near 62, not stretched.
Support: 0.70186, 0.70128, 0.70062
Resistance: 0.70249, 0.70359, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7025 fri close fills the gap and brings Friday's 0.7036 prior high into view, then the 0.7042 fri high
Break below the 0.7019 higher low and the rising tl would stall the Asia HH/HL chain; losing the 0.7013 swing low exposes the 0.7006 asian low and 0.7000 psych
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major risk event for this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday recovery after weekend gap lower · RSI 61 · price 0.70199
Higher lows since Asia open, capped near 0.7021.
Asia session opened with a gap lower to 0.7007 from Friday's 0.7025 close, following higher US yields and Hammack's hawkish Fed comments. Price has since built rising lows off the 0.7006 session low and is pressing the 0.7021 session high, which has capped twice. The gap fill at 0.7025 sits just above, with Friday's high at 0.7042 beyond that.
Support: 0.70167, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70212, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 session high puts the 0.7025 gap fill in play
Break of the rising lows and the 0.7017 higher low returns focus to the 0.7006 session low
Loss of the session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday recovery after weekend gap down · RSI 59 · price 0.7019
Higher lows off 0.7006 session low, capped just under 0.7021 session high.
Monday opened about 18 pips below Friday's 0.7025 close as firmer US yields and hawkish Fed commentary weighed. Asia session has since built higher lows off the 0.7006 session low and is pressing the 0.7021 session high, with price sitting just under the EMA50.
Support: 0.7013, 0.7006, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7025
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7021 session high puts the 0.7025 gap fill in play
Loss of the 0.7013 higher low and rising support turns focus back to the 0.7006 session low and 0.7000 psych
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major event risk for this read
02:02 UTC
Intraday recovery after weekend gap lower · RSI 58 · price 0.70181
Higher lows off session low, capped at session high.
Asia session opened with a roughly 18-pip weekend gap lower to 0.7007 as firmer US yields weighed. Price has since carved rising lows from the 0.7006 session low and is pressing the 0.7019–0.7021 session high, while the gap to the 0.7025 friday close stays unfilled. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR(14) is around 4 pips, which fits quiet pre-RBA trade.
Support: 0.70133, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70209, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 session high opens a gap fill toward the 0.7025 friday close, with the 0.7042 friday high beyond
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 0.7013 higher low returns focus to the 0.7006 session low and 0.7000 psych
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major AUD driver; positioning may stay compressed until then
01:47 UTC
Flat after gap-down open, higher lows in Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.70148
0.7006–0.7020 Asian range, weekend gap to 0.7025 unfilled.
Monday opened 18 pips below Friday's 0.7025 close as firm US yields and hawkish Fed commentary kept USD bid. The Asia session low at 0.7006 held above 0.7000 psych, and higher lows have since built into a 0.7006–0.7020 range. The session high sits at the 38.2% retrace of the Friday high–session low drop, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70209, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 session high opens the gap fill toward Friday's 0.7025 close
Loss of the 0.7006 session low exposes 0.7000 psych and breaks the Asia higher-low sequence
Friday high at 0.7042, the NY spike top, caps any extension beyond the gap fill
No scheduled data in the next 8h; the RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the main event risk for this range
Asia session HH/HL sequence off 0.7006, capped below session high.
AUD opened the week gapping about 18 pips below the 0.7025 Friday close as rising US yields weighed. Price bottomed at the 0.7006 session low, and Asia session buying has since printed a chain of higher lows up to 0.7013, with the 0.7020 session high still capping price. Price sits just above EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.70131, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70209, 0.70249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 session high opens a gap fill toward the 0.7025 friday close
Break below the 0.7013 higher low ends the rising trendline sequence, exposing the 0.7006 session low and 0.7000 psych
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and US yield moves remain the main risks to this read
01:17 UTC
Short-term recovery after gap-down open · RSI 49 · price 0.70157
Higher lows off Asia session low, capped under session high; weekend gap unfilled.
Monday opened with an 18-pip gap below Friday's 0.7025 close as US yields and hawkish Fed talk weighed. The Asia session has since built rising lows from the 0.7006 session low, and the pullback held 0.7013 near the 50% of the session rally fib. Price sits just under the 0.7018 session high, RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and the gap fill level at 0.7025 remains open.
Support: 0.70128, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70184, 0.70209, 0.70249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7018 session high exposes the 0.7021 open spike and the 0.7025 gap fill
Break of the 0.7013 pullback low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 0.7006 session low and 0.7000 psych
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the next major catalyst; pre-event positioning may keep Asia ranges compressed
Weekend gap down; higher lows from Asian low, capped below Asian high.
The week opened about 18 pips below Friday's 0.70249 close as firmer US yields and hawkish Fed commentary weighed. The early Asia session set an Asian low at 0.70062, and price has since printed higher lows back to 0.7018, just under the 0.70209 Asian high, still below EMA50. RSI(14) sits near 54 and ATR(14) is about 3.7 pips, so flow is thin and ranges are compressed.
Support: 0.70105, 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70209, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70209 Asian high points toward a gap fill at the 0.70249 Friday close
A gap fill that holds above 0.70249 puts the 0.70423 Friday high back in view
A break of the 0.70105 higher low and trendline returns focus to the 0.70062 Asian low and the 0.7000 psych level
A push in US 10y yields during Asia hours could cap the recovery ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision at 04:30 UTC
00:47 UTC
Down on the weekend gap, now stabilising · RSI 44 · price 0.70157
Gap-down open; early Asia range 0.7006–0.7021, gap to Friday close unfilled.
AUD/USD opened the week about 18 pips below Friday's 0.7025 close as firm US yields and hawkish Fed commentary weighed. Early Asia dipped to a 0.7006 session low, just under Friday's 0.7008 trough, then recovered to 0.7016. Price is sitting on EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 4 pips; the 0.7021 session high has capped the rebound so far.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70209, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 session high puts the 0.7025 Friday close gap fill in play, with the Friday high at 0.7042 above
Loss of the 0.7006 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the main event risk; pre-meeting positioning keeps ranges tight
US 10y yield moves remain the dominant driver during Asia
00:32 UTC
Gap lower, sideways in early Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.70125
Asian range 0.7006–0.7021 with lower highs, weekend gap unfilled.
AUDUSD opened the week about 18 pips below Friday's 0.7025 close as hawkish Fed rhetoric and firmer US yields revived USD demand, and early Asia has since ranged 0.7006–0.7021 with the gap unfilled. Session highs are stepping lower (0.7021, 0.7019, 0.7015) along a lower-highs trendline. Demand stepped in at the 0.7006 session low, keeping price just above the 0.7000 psych level.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70153, 0.70209, 0.70249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7021 session high reopens the gap fill toward 0.7025
A close back above the 0.7015 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Break of the 0.7006 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC is the main scheduled risk to this range
00:16 UTC
Gapped lower, ranging · RSI 44 · price 0.70132
Monday gap below Friday close; early Asia range 0.7006–0.7021.
Early Asia session opened with an ~18-pip gap below the 0.7025 Friday close. The opening spike to the 0.7021 session high faded, and the session low at 0.7006 sits just above 0.7000 psych, with price mid-range near 0.7013 and RSI(14) around 44. USD demand on hawkish Fed talk and firmer yields keeps AUD heavy into Tuesday's RBA.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70209, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7021 session high puts the gap fill toward the 0.7025 friday close in play
Loss of the 0.7006 session low exposes 0.7000 psych
NY rejection at the 0.7042 friday high marks the upper limit of recent structure
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, gap lower at weekly open · RSI 36 · price 0.70086
Lower highs through early Asia, gap below Fri close unfilled.
AUDUSD opened the week about 18 pips below Friday's 0.7025 close as hawkish Fed talk and firmer US yields revived USD demand. Early Asia session has carved lower highs from the 0.7021 session high to a 0.7006 session low, just above the 0.7000 psych level, with RSI(14) near 36 and ranges tight ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70062, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70209, 0.70249, 0.70423
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.7006 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Recovery above the 0.7021 session high puts the gap to the 0.7025 fri close in play
A full gap fill above the 0.7025 fri close brings the 0.7042 fri high back into range
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's guidance on further hikes could materially shift this read