AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 28 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, pausing at 0.7000 · RSI 40 · price 0.70182
Lower highs since 0.7237; tight base 0.7004-0.7042.
Lower-high sequence intact since the 0.7237 peak, stepping down through 0.7187 and the 0.7140 lower high. That high gave way to a roughly 136-pip slide to the 0.7004 swing low, driven by USD strength and Fed-hike repricing. Since then price has held a narrow range between 0.7004 and the 0.7042 range high, just above the 0.7000 psych mark. ATR(14) has compressed to about 18 pips while price sits below both EMAs, which points to a pending break with the RBA as the catalyst.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70423, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7042 range high breaks the base and opens the 38.2% fib near 0.7056 and the 0.7074 prior low
Failure to hold the 0.7004 swing low and the 0.7000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC: hike guidance, not the priced 25bp, could materially shift this read
Australia Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC and US ADP Wed 12:15 UTC as follow-through risk
Lower-high line from 0.7187 caps any recovery unless reclaimed; a push through the 0.7140 lower high would negate the downtrend structure
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 0.7000 · RSI 42 · price 0.70187
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; tight range 0.7004-0.7045.
Lower-high sequence intact since the 0.7237 top, with the descending trendline capping each rally. The latest leg from the 0.7140 prior high reached a 0.7004 swing low above the 0.7000 psych mark on USD strength from Fed hike repricing and 5.20%+ US yields. Price has since held a narrow 0.7004-0.7045 range top for four sessions below both EMAs. ATR(14) near 17 pips points to compression into Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70888, 0.71398
What it said to watch
RBA decision and guidance Tue 04:30 UTC, with crowded AUD shorts, could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 0.7004 swing low and 0.7000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.7045 range top brings the 0.7089 prior pivot and the 50% fib near 0.7072 into view
Descending trendline near 0.7082 has capped every rally since the 0.7237 top. A break above it challenges the downtrend read
US JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak Tue could move USD independently of the RBA outcome
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; tight base 0.7004-0.7044.
Swing structure has stepped lower all month, from the 0.7237 top to the 0.71398 lower high and a fresh swing low at 0.70036. US 10y yields above 5.20% and rising Fed hike odds drove last week's slide. Since then price has compressed into a 40-pip base between the swing low and the 0.7044 range top, just above the 0.7000 psych level. ATR(14) near 16 pips, well down from the breakdown bars, and EMA20 holding below EMA50 keep the pair pinned under its averages, with the range top capping two bounce attempts.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could break the compression either way
H4 close below the 0.70036 swing low and 0.7000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 0.7044 range top opens the prior low at 0.7074, near the fib 50% of the lower high to swing low leg
Reclaim of the 0.71398 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
US JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers, with PCE and NFP later in the week, as USD-side risk
Lower highs since 0.7237; tight base 0.7004-0.7045.
Lower-high sequence intact from the 0.7237 top through the 0.7187 and 0.7140 pivots. Price has since based in a 0.7004-0.7045 box, with the swing low at 0.7004 retested at the weekly open just above the 0.7000 psych figure. The prior leg lower was driven by the global bond sell-off and Fed-hike pricing. ATR(14) has compressed to about 16 pips from 40+ during the leg lower, and price holds below both EMAs, so the base reads as a pause inside the downtrend ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70717, 0.71398
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could break the 0.7004-0.7045 compression either way
H4 close below the 0.7000 psych figure and the 0.7004 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.7045 range top opens a retrace toward the fib 50% at 0.7072, near the old 0.7074 low
A move through the lower-highs trendline and the 0.7140 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
Australia August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC and US JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC as follow-up risk
Lower highs / lower lows since 0.7237; tight base over 0.7004.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak. The slide from the 0.7140 swing high broke the prior low at 0.7075 and has stalled in a narrow 0.7004–0.7043 range above the 0.7000 psych level, with yield-driven USD strength behind the three-week decline. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 17 pips and price opened the week on a small gap lower, holding below both EMAs ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision.
Support: 0.7004, 0.7000, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7075, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7004 swing low and 0.7000 psych extends the lower-low sequence toward the UOB target at 0.6970
Close above the 0.7043 range top opens a retest of the prior low at 0.7075, near the 38.2% of the slide
Recovery through the 0.7140 swing high and the lower highs trendline would break the downtrend structure
RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and presser 05:30 UTC could break the compression; guidance on further hikes is the swing factor
US ADP and PCE Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC keep the USD yield driver in play