Lower highs since 0.7237 peak; week-long range broken lower.
Lower-high structure has held since the 0.7237 early-month peak, with each bounce capped below the prior one and EMA20 running under EMA50. Price broke the 0.7004-0.7044 range after the RBA's 'dovish hike' and firm, Fed-hike-bid USD, printing a 0.6966 swing low beneath the post-RBA low at 0.6978. ATR(14) near 22 pips is expanding out of the prior range compression. The 61.8% fib of the 0.7140-0.6966 leg sits near 0.7073 and lines up with the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.70036, 0.70447, 0.70732
What it said to watch
Australian August CPI in ~10.5h; a hot print could lift price back toward the range floor at 0.7004
US ADP and core PCE on Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read via the USD leg
H4 close back above the 0.7004 range floor turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6966 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 0.6900 round number
Reclaim of the 0.7044 range top and the 61.8% fib near 0.7073 would challenge the lower-highs trendline
Lower highs since 0.7237; week-long 0.7004-0.7042 range broken lower.
Three weeks of lower highs from 0.7237 through 0.7187 and the 0.7140 lower high, with each leg printing a fresh low. The week-long 0.7004-0.7042 range gave way after the RBA's dovish hike and a yield-bid USD, pushing price to a 0.6972 swing low. ATR(14) near 21 pips is expanding modestly off the range. Both EMAs sit overhead, with EMA20 below EMA50, and RSI near 30 is approaching stretched territory.
Support: 0.6972, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.7042, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7004 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Recovery through the 0.7042 range high voids the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6972 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
AU August CPI in ~10.5h could materially shift this read
US ADP and core PCE Wed add USD-side event risk
A close above the 0.7140 lower high or the trendline would break the lower-highs structure
AUDUSD has printed a lower-high sequence from the 0.7237 top through 0.7187, 0.7140 and the 0.7042 range top. EMA20 sits below EMA50 and price trades beneath both. The latest leg pushed briefly through the round number to a 0.6978 swing low after the RBA's 'dovish hike', and firm Fed-hike pricing is keeping the USD bid. Price has since settled back into a 0.7005-0.7042 consolidation, with ATR(14) near 20 pips, a compressed regime relative to the mid-month expansion.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7042, 0.7078, 0.7140
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 0.6978 swing low would extend the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.7042 range top and the descending trendline would break the lower-high pattern, with the 61.8% fib at 0.7078 next
A move back above the 0.7140 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
Aug AU monthly CPI on Wed 30 Sep 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US ADP and GDP on Wed 30 Sep, plus JOLTS and Fedspeak today, could move this pair through the round number
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new lows · RSI 38 · price 0.6990
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; week-long range broken lower.
The September decline from 0.7237 has printed a clean sequence of lower highs, with the 0.7140 lower high still capping the structure. After a week of compression between the 0.7004 range floor and the 0.7045 range top, the latest bar broke lower to a 0.6978 swing low, just above the channel floor near 0.6970. The RBA's fully priced hike to 4.60% and a firm USD on 5.27% 10Y yields and Fed-hike pricing account for the pressure. ATR(14) near 19 pips is modest, and price sits below both EMAs, which remain bearishly stacked.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.7045, 0.7140
What it said to watch
Aus August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (trimmed mean f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read
H4 close back above the 0.7004 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6970 channel floor extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 0.7045 range top reopens the path toward the 0.7140 lower high
US JOLTS and the Fedspeak slate today are the main external driver of the USD leg
Lower highs and lower lows in a descending channel, now basing in a tight range.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs from 0.7187 and lower lows down to the 0.7004 swing low, the lowest since Aug 4. The move tracked a firm USD on October Fed hike repricing, while the fully priced RBA hike to 4.60% added little. Over the past week price has compressed into a 0.7004-0.7042 range just above the 0.7000 psych handle, with ATR(14) contracting from the sell-off leg. Price sits below both EMAs, and the bearish EMA20/50 alignment is intact; the range high and the prior low at 0.7074 cap the retracement of the 0.7140-0.7004 leg, and the channel top runs near 0.7094.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.70447, 0.70744, 0.7094
What it said to watch
Bullock's RBA press conference at 05:30 UTC could break the compression either way
H4 close above the 0.7042 range high opens the prior low at 0.7074 and the 50% fib retracement
Failure to hold the 0.7004 swing low and the 0.7000 psych handle exposes the channel low near 0.6978
A sustained move above the channel top near 0.7094 would invalidate the descending-channel read
US JOLTS today, AU monthly CPI Wed 01:30 UTC and ADP Wed 12:15 UTC are the next range-break catalysts
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; tight range 0.7004-0.7042.
A sequence of lower highs from 0.7237 through the 0.7140 lower high defines the three-week downtrend, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both. Since the 0.7004 swing low, the pair has held a 40-pip consolidation just above the 0.70 figure, capped by the 0.7042 range high. ATR(14) has eased to about 17 pips while firm USD demand on higher US yields limits rebounds.
Support: 0.70036, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.70423, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
RBA decision 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could break the 0.7004-0.7042 range
H4 close below the 0.7004 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6975 channel low
H4 close above the 0.7042 range high opens the fib 50% near 0.7072 and the 0.7074 prior low
Lower-highs trendline near 0.7080 caps the structure while price holds below it
AU CPI Wed 01:30 UTC and US ADP Wed 12:15 UTC add follow-through risk