21:06 UTC
Pullback deepening, lower highs since Sep 9 · RSI 36 · price 0.70132
61.8% retrace of Jun–Sep advance, lower-high chain.
The Jun 30–Sep 9 advance from the 0.6865 june low to the 0.7237 sep high has been more than half unwound over three weeks. The move formed a lower high near 0.7140 on Sep 21, then a 75-pip drop on Sep 23 as hawkish Fed repricing lifted USD, and the RBA's dovish hike added no floor. Price is now below EMA20 and a flattening ema50 near 0.7100, and is in a retest of the 61.8% fib at 0.7007 just above the 0.7000 handle, with the late-July rally trendline already broken.
Support: 0.7007, 0.6912, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7051, 0.7100, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 61.8% fib and 0.7000 exposes the july low at 0.6912
- Recovery above the 50% fib at 0.7051 and the ema50 near 0.7100 would break the Sep trendline and the lower-high sequence
- AU August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC; a soft Trimmed Mean adds pressure on the 61.8% fib
- US core PCE and ADP Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg