AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Downtrend after range breakdown, momentum stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.6985
Lower highs from the 0.7039 week high; consolidating below the broken 0.7003 range floor.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's 0.7025 close. Price chopped between the range floor near 0.7003 and the 0.7039 week high through Monday, until Tuesday's Asia-session RBA 'dovish hike' flipped a spike to the 0.7029 rba high into a break through the floor. London's retest stalled at 0.7007, near the 50% fib of the week-high-to-low move, and NY extended to a 0.6966 week low on a firm USD. Since then price has held a tight 0.6985 consolidation above the post-rba low, just under EMA(20) near 0.6989, with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s after the oversold dip.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7029, 0.7039
What it said to watch
AU monthly CPI at 01:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; trimmed mean vs 3.6% f/c is the core signal
H1 close back above the 0.7003 range floor and 50% fib would neutralise the breakdown, with the lower highs trendline near 0.7014 and the 0.7029 rba high above
Failure to hold the 0.6978 post-rba low would reopen the 0.6966 week low and confirm a lower-low sequence
US ADP and core PCE from 12:15 UTC Wednesday are the next USD test for this structure
22:04 UTC
Downtrend after range breakdown, rebound stalling · RSI 44 · price 0.69845
Lower highs since Tuesday's RBA spike; bounce capped below EMA20.
AUD/USD broke below the 0.7005–0.7040 range that had held since Thursday. The RBA's 'dovish hike' during Tuesday's Asia session reversed a spike to the rba high at 0.7029, and a firm, Fed-hike-bid USD extended the slide to the week low at 0.6966 in the NY session. The rebound has stalled at 0.6989, just under the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline and near the 38.2% of the 0.7039–0.6966 fib drop, with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6990 (ema20 and lower-highs trendline) opens a retest of the week open at 0.7007 and the broken range floor
Failure to hold the rba low at 0.6978 exposes the week low at 0.6966; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the rba high at 0.7029 invalidates the post-RBA breakdown read
Australian August CPI (Wed 01:30 UTC) and US ADP/core PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range break lower; lower highs and lower lows since the RBA decision.
The 0.7005–0.7045 range that held from Thursday through Monday gave way on Tuesday's RBA decision. The initial spike to the 0.7029 RBA high reversed as Bullock's hesitancy and a firm, Fed-hike-bid USD pushed price through the range floor and 0.7000 psych, and the NY session extended to a 0.6966 week low. The late bounce stalled at 0.6990, where EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the RBA drop converge, and lower highs at 0.7029, 0.7007 and 0.6989 define a descending trendline, with RSI(14) recovering to ~43 from the low 30s.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7005, 0.7029
What it said to watch
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~10.5h): a print at or above 4.2% y/y could test the ema20/fib zone and the 0.7005 range floor
H1 close back above the 0.7005 range floor negates the range-break read
Rejection at 0.6990 ema20/fib keeps the descending trendline and lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 0.6978 post-RBA low and the 0.6966 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US ADP and Core PCE from 12:15 UTC Wed could materially shift this read via the USD leg
Thu–Mon 0.7004–0.7045 range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows through Tuesday.
AUDUSD held a 0.7004–0.7045 range from Thursday into Monday after a gap-down weekly open at 0.7007. The RBA's 'dovish hike' in Tuesday's Asia session reversed the pop to the 0.7029 rba high into a range break below 0.7000, and a firm, Fed-hike-bid USD stretched the slide to a 0.6966 week low during NY hours. The late-NY bounce stalled at 0.6989, the 38.2% fib of the post-RBA drop and EMA(20), leaving price under the lower-highs line and the weekly open, with RSI(14) near 44 and below 50.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.70068, 0.70287
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6990 (38.2% fib, EMA20) would break the lower-highs line from the rba high
Rejection below the weekly open at 0.7007 keeps Tuesday's downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the rba low at 0.6978 re-exposes the 0.6966 week low
Australian August CPI at Wed 01:30 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y, trimmed mean 3.6%) could materially shift this read
US ADP and core PCE on Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the USD-side risk to the structure
Lower highs and lower lows since the RBA break of last week's 0.7004–0.7042 range.
Tuesday's Asia-session RBA 'dovish hike' broke AUDUSD out of last week's 0.7004–0.7042 range. A firm USD then extended the slide into the NY session to a week low at 0.6966, below the 0.6978 rba low. London's rebound stalled at the weekly open near 0.7007 and set a second lower high under the lower-highs line from the rba high at 0.7029. The late-NY bounce is holding just under 0.7000 psych, capped near 0.6990 at the 38.2% retracement of the post-RBA drop and EMA(20). RSI(14) has recovered to ~44 from near 30.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70068, 0.70287
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7007 weekly open and the lower-highs line would break the post-RBA sequence
Reclaim of 0.7000 psych puts the 0.7029 rba high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.6966 week low extends the lower-low sequence; a slip back under the 0.6978 rba low is the first sign
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed (f/c 4.0% y/y, trimmed mean 3.6%) and Waller remarks tonight could materially shift this read
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the USD-side risk to the structure
Lower highs, lower lows off Monday's 0.7039 high; Monday range broken.
AUDUSD gapped lower at the weekly open (0.7007 vs Friday's 0.7025 close), held a 0.7005–0.7039 range through Monday, then broke down in the Asia session on the RBA drop. The 'dovish hike' took price to the 0.6978 rba low. London's rebound stalled at the week open near 0.7007, a fresh lower high. NY hours extended to a 0.69655 week low as Treasury yields kept the USD bid, and price now sits under ema20 (~0.6988) with RSI(14) near 36, off oversold but not diverging.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.6988, 0.70068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7007 week open breaks the lower-highs trendline and negates the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.69655 week low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6950 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.6978 rba low and ema20 would put price back inside the RBA drop fib 38–50% zone (0.6990–0.6997)
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC: trimmed mean ≥3.8% could lift price back through the rba low; ≤3.4% pressures the week low
Fed's Williams/Waller tonight and core PCE tomorrow 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD leg
The week opened with a gap lower to 0.7007 from Friday's 0.7025 close, and Monday's 0.7039 high capped the prior 0.7004–0.7045 range. In Tuesday's Asia session the RBA's 25bp hike drew a pop to 0.7029 that was rejected. Price broke through the 0.7000 psych level after Bullock's hesitant presser. A firm, yield-driven USD then extended the drop during NY hours to a new week low at 0.6966, below the 0.6978 rba low. Lower highs at 0.7029, 0.7007 and 0.6996 keep price under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 31, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.7000, 0.70068
What it said to watch
AUD CPI Wed 01:30 UTC: a print at or above 4.2% y/y could lift price back through the 0.6978 rba low toward the 0.7000 psych level
An H1 close back above the lower highs trendline and 0.7000 psych would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Hold of the 0.6966 week low vs extension toward the 0.6950 psych level on a soft CPI print
Fed's Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00 UTC) tonight, then ADP/Core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC, could shift the USD leg
Weekly open at 0.7007 sits near the 50% retracement of the week drop, a cap if any rebound develops
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low · RSI 34 · price 0.6977
Range breakdown below 0.7000, lower highs since Monday.
AUD/USD held a 0.7004–0.7045 box through last week and Monday. The RBA 'dovish hike' in the Asia session produced a pop to the 0.7029 rba high that fully reversed once Bullock flagged a hold debate, breaking the 0.7000 psych handle. London's rebound stalled at the weekly open near 0.7007, the third lower high on the trendline, and the NY session pushed to a fresh week low at 0.6972 beneath the 0.6978 post-RBA low, with price under EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 0.6972, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 0.7000 psych and the 0.7007 weekly open would break the lower-highs trendline and negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.6972 week low leaves the 0.6950 round number as the next reference
A recovery through the 0.7029 rba high would put price back inside the prior range
AU August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read; Fed speakers today and US ADP/PCE Wed add USD-side risk
15:03 UTC
Downtrend after post-RBA range break · RSI 36 · price 0.69839
Lower highs below broken 0.7004–0.7043 range.
AUD/USD broke below last week's 0.7004–0.7043 range after the RBA's 'dovish hike' in Tuesday's Asia session. The initial pop to the 0.7029 rba high reversed to a 0.6978 week low as Bullock flagged a debated hold, and a firm USD added weight. The London-session bounce stalled at the 0.7007 weekly open, between the 50% and 61.8% of the rba leg fib, and price has slipped back beneath EMA(20) near 0.7000 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and lower highs intact since Monday's 0.7039 peak.
Support: 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70068, 0.70287
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7007 weekly open reclaims the broken range floor and breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6978 week low extends the post-RBA lower-low structure
Repeated H1 closes above EMA(20) near 0.7000 would signal the retest is failing
Australian August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (~10.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot print brings the 0.7029 rba high back into view
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC today and Wednesday's ADP/PCE are the USD-side risk to the structure
14:03 UTC
Downtrend after range break, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 0.69936
Range floor broken, lower highs below 0.7007.
AUDUSD ranged roughly 0.7004–0.7047 from Wednesday into Monday. In today's Asia session the RBA's dovish hike produced a spike to the 0.7029 rba high, and Bullock's hold-debate comments then broke the range floor and printed the 0.6978 day low. London retested that low near 0.6980, and the bounce into the London-NY transition stalled at 0.7007, the week open and about 57% of the rba drop fib; price is now back below the ema20 (~0.7001) and the 0.7000 round number. RSI(14) sits near 41 with a sequence of lower highs since the rba high, while a firm USD on Fed-hike pricing remains the backdrop.
Support: 0.6984, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7001, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7007 week open and the lower-highs line invalidates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6984 ny low and 0.6978 day low confirms a lower low below today's double test
US JOLTS/Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) and Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AU Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC: a hot print risks a reclaim of the 0.7000 round number toward the 0.7029 rba high; a soft print opens the path below 0.6978
Lower highs since Wednesday; range break below 0.7005 retested from below.
AUD/USD ranged 0.7005–0.7050 from Wednesday through Monday on a sequence of lower highs. The RBA's 'dovish hike' in today's Asia session spiked price to 0.7029, then broke the range floor to a week low at 0.6978. London's bounce stalled at 0.7007, in the 50–61.8% zone of the RBA drop fib. That makes the move a retest of the broken range floor from below, and price now sits under the 0.7000 psych level, EMA(20) near 0.7002 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7006, 0.7029
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7006 range floor would neutralise the range-break read
Loss of the 0.6978 week low, tested twice today, extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 0.7029 rba high would break the post-RBA lower highs
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then AU Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; bounce into prior support.
H1 has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.7069 top. Friday's 0.7042 and Monday's 0.7039 highs both capped below that line, and today's RBA spike to the 0.7029 RBA high was rejected. Bullock's hold-debate reveal drove the Asia-session drop to the 0.6978 RBA low. London has since retraced to the 0.7000 psych level, which sits inside the RBA drop fib between its 38.2% and the 61.8% fib at 0.7009. Price is still just under the EMA20 near 0.7004, and RSI(14) is around 44, off this morning's lows.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.70093, 0.70287
What it said to watch
H1 closes above the ema20 at 0.7004 and the 61.8% fib at 0.7009 would extend the retracement toward the weekly open at 0.7007 and the RBA high at 0.7029
Failure to hold the 0.7000 psych level puts the 0.6978 RBA low back in focus; a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
US JOLTS and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via the USD leg
AU August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (~13h), then US ADP 12:15 UTC, are the next scheduled catalysts for the pair
Lower highs; Thu–Mon range broken lower, now retesting the 0.7000 area.
Lower highs from 0.7070 Wednesday to 0.7042 Friday and 0.7039 Monday. The 0.7004–0.7040 range that held Thursday to Monday gave way in the Asia session after the RBA's dovish hike to 4.60%, and the 05:00 UTC bar printed the 0.6978 rba low as firm US yields added pressure. Demand appeared twice near 0.6980, and the London rebound has lifted price back to the 0.7000 psych, just under the weekly open at 0.7007 and the 38.2% of the Monday high to RBA low drop, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7007, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7007 weekly open reclaims the broken range floor and weakens the lower-highs read
Rejection at the 0.7000 psych keeps the retest intact; a break below the 0.6978 rba low extends the downtrend
Recovery through the 0.7039 monday high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus heavy Fedspeak today could shift the read
Aus monthly CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (f/c 4.0% YoY, trimmed mean 3.6%) could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower after RBA · RSI 31 · price 0.69832
Lower highs since Thursday; 0.7004–0.7039 range broken to the downside.
The week opened on an 18-pip gap below Friday's 0.7025 close, and price held a 0.7004–0.7039 range through Monday, with the week high set during Monday's NY session. The RBA's 'dovish hike' in Asia today produced a spike to 0.7029 that faded into a 30-pip drop through the range floor to 0.6978, extending the lower highs in place since Thursday (0.7045, 0.7042, 0.7039). London is holding just above the RBA low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.7003, which now aligns with the broken range floor, and RSI(14) is near 31.
Support: 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.7029, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7004 range floor and EMA(20), near the 38.2% retrace of the week high to RBA low drop, would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6978 RBA low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6975 channel floor
US JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak today, then Australian August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 0.7029 rba spike and a close above the 0.7039 week high would break the lower-highs line
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, range floor broken on RBA · RSI 34 · price 0.69914
4-day 0.7005–0.7042 range lost; lower highs, fresh low 0.6978.
From Wednesday through Monday price held a 0.7005–0.7042 range under a run of lower highs. In the Asia session, the RBA's priced hike first spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7029 rba high. Bullock's cautious presser then flipped it into a drop through the range floor to the 0.6978 rba low. Since the London open, price has held a tight 0.6983–0.6999 band just above the london low. The bounce is capped under the 38.2% of the rba impulse (~0.6997), the 0.7000 psych level and EMA(20) near 0.7006, with RSI(14) near 34 and the firm USD rates bid adding pressure.
Support: 0.6983, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7005, 0.7029, 0.7042
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.7005 range floor and EMA(20) would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6978 rba low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6975 channel support flagged in the digest
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak into Waller at 19:00 UTC during NY hours could shift the USD leg of this read
Aus August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (trimmed mean f/c 3.6%) in ~16.5h could reprice the rba high/range top zone
The lower highs line from Wednesday's 0.7045 high is the cap to monitor on any squeeze toward 0.7029
Lower highs from Monday; 0.7005–0.7039 range broken lower.
Monday's range topped at 0.7039 in the NY session, then printed lower highs into Tuesday's Asia session. The in-line RBA hike to 4.60% produced an rba spike to 0.7029 that faded fast, taking out the weekly open at 0.7007 and the 0.7000 psych to an rba low of 0.6978 during the presser, as USD strength on Fed-hike bets dominated. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 30, holding a tight 0.6983–0.6999 band into London.
Support: 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7000 psych and the 0.7007 weekly open would mark the break as a false break; the fib 38.2% of the Monday high to rba low leg sits at ~0.7001
Failure to hold the 0.6978 rba low extends the lower-low sequence
Lower highs line from Monday's 0.7039 through the 0.7029 rba spike now caps near 0.7025
US JOLTS and Fed speakers today, then AU Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower after range break · RSI 29 · price 0.6992
Thu–Mon range 0.7004–0.7042 broken lower; lower highs intact.
After Wednesday's London-NY slide off 0.7090, AUD/USD held a 0.7004–0.7042 range from Thursday through Monday. Inside that range the lower highs stepped down at 0.7042, the 0.7039 monday high and today's 0.7029 rba high. The RBA's fully priced hike to 4.60% gave only a brief pop before a sell-the-fact break of the range floor to a 0.6978 rba low during the presser, with a firm USD on Fed-hike odds adding pressure. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.7010, and RSI(14) around 29 is the most stretched reading of the 0.7090 drop.
Support: 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.7029, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.7004 range floor would turn today's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6978 rba low confirms a lower-low below the 0.6975 channel support flagged in the digest
Close above the 0.7029 rba high and 0.7039 monday high breaks the lower highs sequence
US JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak today, then AU Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (~18h), could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; 0.7004 range floor broken in Asia session.
AUD/USD has printed successive lower highs since Wednesday's 0.7094 start. The 0.7004–0.7045 range held from Thursday through Monday, and Monday's NY-session high at 0.7039 stalled again under the lower-highs trendline. The in-line RBA hike spiked price to 0.7029 in the Asia session, but that move met rejection, and the reversal during Bullock's presser cut through the 0.7004 range floor and 0.7000 psych to a session low at 0.6978, just above 0.6975 channel support. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.7012 with RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold, and ATR(14) expanded to roughly 11 pips on the break.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.7004, 0.7012, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.7004 range floor and 0.7000 psych would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6978 session low exposes 0.6975 channel low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.7012 and the 0.7022 38.2% retrace of the wed-tue decline challenges the downtrend read; the monday high at 0.7039 and the lower highs trendline sit above
US JOLTS and Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC today, then Australia CPI Wed 01:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Down from 0.7103, now ranging above 0.7000 · RSI 47 · price 0.70169
Lower highs pressing into a flat 0.7004–0.7007 base.
AUDUSD has spent four sessions boxed in 0.7004–0.7045 since Wednesday's London-to-NY slide from 0.7103. Each bounce has stalled below the 38.2% fib at 0.7042, and highs have stepped lower along a lower-highs trendline to the 0.7039 monday high. The fully priced RBA hike to 4.60% triggered a two-way Asia-session spike from 0.7005 to the 0.7029 rba spike high that was fully retraced. That leaves price flat on EMA(20) (~0.7017) and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 47, while the weekly open at 0.7007 and the range floor at 0.7004 have held on every test above the 0.7000 round number.
Support: 0.70068, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70387, 0.70423
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.7029 rba spike high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending-highs sequence and exposes the monday high at 0.7039 and the 38.2% fib at 0.7042
An H1 close below the 0.7004 range floor and the 0.7000 round number would resolve the consolidation lower and extend Wednesday's slide
RBA presser at 05:30 UTC, US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, and Australian monthly CPI on Wed 01:30 UTC could each break the range
Repeated failure to hold the weekly open at 0.7007 would put the range floor under direct pressure
Pennant after Wednesday's drop: lower highs from 0.7045, higher lows off 0.7006.
AUDUSD fell about 80 pips from 0.7105 into Wednesday's NY session as higher US yields and Fed hike repricing lifted the USD, and it has compressed since Thursday into a pennant. Lower highs at 0.7045, 0.7042 and Monday's 0.7039 week high have been capped near the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday's drop. Higher lows have formed off the 0.7004 swing low and Monday's 0.7006 weekly low. Price is back below the ema20 near 0.7016, with RSI(14) around 41 and ATR near 7 pips, and Monday's rally stalled well above Friday's prior close at 0.7025 before fading.
Support: 0.70062, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7016, 0.70249, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision and statement at 04:30 GMT, then Bullock at 05:30 GMT, land inside the next bar and could resolve the pennant either way
H1 close below the 0.7004 swing low and 0.7000 psych breaks the pennant floor and resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the lower-highs line near 0.7038 and the week high reclaims the prior close area and 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the higher-lows line at 0.7009 and the weekly low puts the 0.7000 psych back in play
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into the NY session, can reprice the USD leg
Contracting range after Wednesday's impulsive drop.
AUDUSD has compressed in a 0.7004–0.7045 band since Wednesday's slide into the NY session from 0.7106. Lower highs and higher lows are narrowing the range, and the 38.2% retracement of that drop sits at the range top, capping rebounds. Monday gapped down to the 0.7007 weekly open, and the NY-hours spike to the 0.7039 Monday high faded. Price now sits just below the ema20 near 0.7018 with RSI(14) around 43, as firm USD and 5%+ US yields keep the pair pinned above the 0.7000 psych level into the RBA.
Support: 0.7007, 0.7004, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7018, 0.7039, 0.7045
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and the 05:30 GMT presser are the likely catalyst to resolve the higher lows / lower highs compression
H1 close below the 0.7004 week low and 0.7000 psych extends Wednesday's decline
H1 close above the 0.7039 Monday high and 0.7045 range top breaks the lower highs sequence and the 38.2% retracement cap
Holding back above the ema20 at 0.7018 returns price to the middle of the range
Wednesday's AU CPI at 01:30 GMT is a follow-up test for the range after the RBA
Lower highs over a flat 0.7004–0.7008 base, compressing.
Since Wednesday's London-NY slide from 0.7104, AUDUSD has compressed between the 0.7004 swing low and a falling line of lower highs: the 0.7045 prior high Thursday, 0.7042 Friday and Monday's high at 0.7039, each set during NY hours and then faded. The week opened on a gap down to the 0.7006 weekly low, below Friday's 0.7025 close, as the USD stayed firm on Treasury yields at 2007 highs. Price sits just under the ema20 and EMA(50) in the Asia session with RSI(14) near 44, and the psych 0.7000 floor is still intact ahead of the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70062, 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7018, 0.70387, 0.70447
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and Bullock's 05:30 GMT presser could materially shift this read; hawkish guidance meets crowded AUD shorts
H1 close back above the ema20 near 0.7018 turns the focus to the lower-highs trendline and the monday high at 0.7039
A break of the trendline and the 0.7045 prior high, near the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday slide, would end the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the weekly low and the 0.7004 swing low exposes the psych 0.7000 level
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers during NY hours are the next USD-side risk
Wednesday's London-NY transition sell-off from 0.7108 to 0.7025 set the week's direction as surging US yields lifted the USD. Since Thursday price has compressed in a 0.7004–0.7042 range above the 0.7000 psych, with the range top sitting at the 38.2% of that sell-off fib and a lower high at 0.7039, Monday's high. Price is now back at Monday's gap-down weekly open, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 40 into the RBA decision.
Support: 0.7007, 0.7004, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7018, 0.7039, 0.7042
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and Bullock's 05:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; guidance tone matters more than the fully priced hike
H1 close below the 0.7004 range floor and the 0.7000 psych extends the downtrend out of the range
Reclaiming ema20 near 0.7018 and closing above the 0.7039 Monday high and 0.7042 range top breaks the lower highs line
AU CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next event risk for the range
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's NY-session drop from 0.7116 to 0.7025, driven by a firm USD and surging US yields. Since Thursday, price has compressed into a tight band above the 0.7004 week low and the 0.7000 round number. Each rally has stalled below the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday's drop, and a lower-highs sequence runs 0.7045 → 0.7042 → 0.7039, with the Monday high rejected during NY hours. Monday opened with a gap below the 0.7025 Friday close and has since slipped back under the H1 EMA20 near 0.7018. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s ahead of the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7018, 0.70249, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.7004 week low and the 0.7000 round number resolves the base lower
An H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.7039 Monday high breaks the compression
Failure to reclaim the 0.7025 Friday close leaves Monday's gap unfilled
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak are the USD-side risk later in the session