AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and flattening at week lows · RSI 27 · price 0.69448
Lower highs since Tuesday's RBA break of 0.7000; tight base above 0.6942.
The pair opened the week at 0.7007 and topped at 0.7039 in Monday's NY session. It then broke below 0.7000 on Tuesday's RBA 'sell the news' hike during the Asia session, and the softer trimmed-mean CPI extended the slide through Tuesday's low at 0.6966 on Wednesday. The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 at the NY open met rejection under the lower-highs trendline, and firm US growth data drove a fresh week low at 0.6942, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 27, in oversold territory. Late NY and early Asia trade has compressed into a 5-pip band just above the week low, with ATR(14) contracting to around 9 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69655, 0.69874, 0.70068
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.6942 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
A recovery above Tuesday's low at 0.6966 would put the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% fib of the week's drop (~0.6979) in play
An H1 close above the 0.6987 PCE high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read; the weekly open at 0.7007 sits just above
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC fall inside the coming Asia session
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7039 top. The RBA hike sold off in Tuesday's Asia session, and the soft core CPI print extended the slide below 0.7000. The post-PCE spike to the 0.6987 pce high in the first hour of NY stalled short of the 50% level of the week decline and met rejection as USD recovered on strong GDP and Chicago PMI data. Price is now pinned near the 0.6942 week low, below EMA(20) at 0.6957 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) oversold near 27.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6957, 0.69655, 0.69874
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the tue low at 0.6966, back over EMA(20), would ease the downtrend read
A break of the lower highs trendline and the 0.6987 pce high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6942 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
AUD Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) and RBA FSR (01:30 UTC) in the Asia session, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's RBA high.
AUDUSD topped at 0.7039 on Monday and has printed lower highs since the RBA 'dovish hike' in Tuesday's Asia session broke it through the 0.7000 psych level. The soft trimmed-mean CPI added a leg to the 0.6958 cpi low on Wednesday. The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 met rejection in the first hour of NY as strong GDP and Chicago PMI revived the USD. Price now sits at the 0.6942 week low, below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 29 in oversold territory. The descending trendline and the week decline fib (38.2% ~0.6979) frame any rebound.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6987, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC fall in the Asia session and could reset the week low
A close back above the 0.6958 cpi low would signal the NY-hours extension losing traction
Reclaiming the 0.6987 pce spike and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6942 week low leaves the 0.6900 round number as the next reference
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Wednesday range broken lower in NY hours.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's Asia-session reversal from 0.7029 on the RBA's dovish hike. Wednesday's soft trimmed-mean CPI rally and the post-PCE spike to the 0.6987 lower high both stalled under the lower-high line. Strong US GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints then drove a NY-session break of Tuesday's 0.6966 low to a fresh week low at 0.6943, leaving price under ema20 (0.6961) and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.69426, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.69874, 0.70068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 and Tuesday's 0.6966 low would neutralise the range-break read
Close above the 0.6987 lower high breaks the lower-high line; 38.2% of the RBA leg fib sits near 0.6976
Failure to hold the 0.6943 week low exposes the 0.6900 round number
A recovery to the 0.7007 week open would erase the week's post-RBA decline
Australia trade balance (00:30 UTC) and RBA FSR (01:30 UTC) in the Asia session, then US ISM at 14:00 UTC Thursday, could materially shift this read
Successive lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7039 peak.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7039 NY-session peak. The heaviest legs came in the Asia session: Tuesday on the RBA's dovish hike and Wednesday on the soft trimmed-mean CPI. The post-PCE bounce to 0.6987 was fully reversed in the first hour of NY as US growth beats lifted the dollar, taking price to a week low at 0.6947, well under the ema20 near 0.6964. RSI(14) near 28 is oversold, and the last five bars have compressed into a 4-pip band.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.6982, 0.70068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 0.6964 (just over Wednesday's 0.6958 post-CPI low) would be the first reclaim of the averages since Tuesday
Close above the 38.2% fib at 0.6982, where the lower-high trendline also sits, breaks this week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6947 week low exposes the 0.6940 round number
AU Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) and RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 UTC) in the Asia session could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday are the next USD catalyst; reclaiming the 0.7007 weekly open would reverse the week's decline
18:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since Monday · RSI 32 · price 0.69481
Stepped lower-high sequence, fresh week low into NY.
The week opened at 0.7007 and topped at 0.7039 in Monday's NY session. Since then every rally has printed a lower high, and Tuesday's dovish RBA hike broke the 0.70 handle. Wednesday's soft trimmed-mean CPI set the cpi low at 0.6958, and the post-PCE spike to 0.6987 was rejected in the first hour of NY as strong US activity data restored the USD bid. That rejection extended the move to a fresh week low at 0.6947. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.6965 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 32. The week's decline fib 38.2% at 0.6982 lines up with the pce spike overhead.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69874, 0.70068
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6958 cpi low and EMA(20) near 0.6965 would stall the lower-low sequence
A break of the lower highs trendline and a close above the 0.6987 pce spike would challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6947 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward psych 0.69
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift USD pricing
AU Trade Balance 00:30 UTC and RBA Financial Stability Review 01:30 UTC, then US ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Weekly open at 0.7007 caps the structure; only a reclaim there would neutralise the week's decline
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low · RSI 32 · price 0.6949
Lower highs since the RBA spike; Wednesday's CPI low broken in NY.
Since Monday's 0.7039 week high, rebounds have capped progressively lower: the 0.7029 RBA spike on Tuesday, 0.6994 in Wednesday's Asia session, then the 0.6987 PCE spike. Each high sat below the prior one before NY hours broke the 0.6958 cpi low from the soft trimmed-mean print. The post-PCE bounce was fully reversed as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, leaving price at a fresh 0.6949 week low with EMA(20) near 0.6971 overhead and RSI(14) near 32, just short of oversold.
Support: 0.69489, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.6971, 0.69874
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.6958 cpi low would turn the NY break into a false break
A reclaim of EMA(20) near 0.6971 and the 0.6987 pce spike would break the lower-highs trendline off the RBA high
Failure to hold the 0.6949 week low leaves the 0.6900 round number as the next reference; a bounce toward the Mon high–week low fib 38.2% near 0.6983 would test the lower-highs line
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC, could shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday are the next USD catalyst for the downtrend read
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low · RSI 31 · price 0.6949
Lower highs since Tuesday's RBA spike; Asian range broken lower.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's RBA 'dovish hike' spike to 0.7029. That reversal took price back below the 0.7007 weekly open, and today's soft trimmed-mean CPI drove the Asia-session drop to the 0.6958 cpi low. In the NY session, the pop to 0.6987 on the core-PCE miss was rejected at the lower high. The GDP and Chicago PMI beats then pushed price through the Asian range and the cpi low to a fresh week low at 0.6949. Price sits below EMA(20) (~0.6967) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 31, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6987, 0.7007
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6958 cpi low would turn today's range break into a false break
Reclaim of the 0.6987 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 38.2% retrace of the week's drop sits just below at ~0.6983
Failure to hold the 0.6949 week low leaves the 0.6900 round number as the next reference
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift the USD leg after the core-PCE miss
AU Trade Balance and RBA Financial Stability Review (Thu 00:30/01:30 UTC) land in the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's RBA spike high.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's Asia-session RBA spike to 0.7029. The dovish-sounding hike reversal and Wednesday's soft trimmed-mean CPI each drove a leg lower from there. The soft US core PCE lifted price to the 0.6987 pce high at the NY open, but the move met rejection below the lower-highs trendline. The pair then slipped to a fresh week low at 0.6951 during NY hours and now sits under the ema20 and the 0.6958 cpi low. RSI(14) near 36 with price below both EMAs keeps the H1 sequence in a downtrend.
Support: 0.69505
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.6970, 0.69874
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6951 week low extends the post-RBA leg to a new lower-low
Recovery above the 0.6958 cpi low and the ema20 near 0.6970 would ease the immediate downside pressure
Close above the 0.6987 pce high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reclaims the 38.2% of the post-RBA leg
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then Aus Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's RBA reversal.
AUD has printed steady lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's post-RBA reversal broke 0.7000. The soft trimmed-mean CPI then extended the slide in the Asia session. The spike to the 0.6987 pce high on the US data release was rejected under the descending trendline, even though PCE undershot, and early NY hours have since set a new week low at 0.6952, taking out the 0.6958 cpi low. Price sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 0.6952, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6987, 0.7007
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.6958 cpi low would turn today's break into a false break
Acceptance above the descending trendline and the 0.6987 pce high, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
0.7007 lower high, just above 0.7000, is the level that invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6952 week low leaves the 0.6900 psych level as the next reference
RSI(14) pushing below 30 would put H1 in oversold territory
Aus Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) and RBA FSR (01:30 UTC) could shift the Asia session read; Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari are due late NY
Lower highs from 0.7039; tight 0.6958–0.6987 range since CPI.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7039 peak, and the biggest legs came in the Asia session. On Tuesday the RBA reaction broke 0.7000, and this morning the soft trimmed-mean CPI took price to the 0.6958 week low. The core PCE miss lifted price to the 0.6987 pce high, close to the 38.2% of the weekly fib, during NY hours, but the spike was rejected back under EMA(20) near 0.6976. That leaves a tight range above the 0.6966 range low, with RSI(14) near 40 holding mid-range rather than oversold.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6987, 0.7007
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6987 pce high and the lower-highs trendline opens the path to 0.7007 weekly open
Failure to hold the 0.6966 range low and 0.6958 week low confirms another lower low
Sustained trade back above ema20 at 0.6976 would mark the first shift in the lower-highs sequence
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers tonight could extend or unwind the PCE reaction
Aus Trade Balance 00:30 UTC and RBA FSR 01:30 UTC land in the Asia session, where this week's largest moves occurred
Lower highs/lower lows since RBA; tight 0.6958–0.6981 base.
AUD/USD held a 0.7005–0.7040 range from Thursday into Monday. That range gave way after Tuesday's RBA spike to the 0.7029 rba high reversed in the Asia session on Bullock's cautious guidance, leaving a string of lower highs since. Wednesday's soft trimmed-mean CPI extended the slide to a 0.6958 week low, and price has since compressed between that level and the 0.6981 post-cpi hi, sitting just above the 0.6966 tue low, below a falling EMA(20) near 0.6974 and with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.7000, 0.70287
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) land within the next bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.6958 week low extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 0.6981 post-cpi hi and the lower highs trendline challenges the downtrend read; the 0.7000 round number aligns with the 61.8% of the rba-cpi fib
Recovery through the 0.7029 rba high would negate the post-RBA reversal; AU trade balance and RBA FSR Thu 00:30–01:30 UTC are the next domestic risk
Lower highs / lower lows since Tuesday's range break, tight post-CPI consolidation.
The week opened on a gap lower near 0.7007 and ranged 0.7005–0.7039 through Monday. Tuesday's dovish RBA hike during the Asia session then broke the range floor and the 0.7000 psych level, and NY extended the move to the 0.6966 tue low, with each bounce capped along a descending trendline of lower highs. Today's softer trimmed-mean CPI printed a 0.6958 week low, and price has since compressed 0.6966–0.6981 beneath the ema20 at 0.6978, with RSI(14) near 39 and the rebound still short of the 38.2% fib of the RBA leg at 0.6985.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.6985, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6985 38.2% fib and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence, with 0.7000 psych next above
Failure to hold the 0.6966 tue low and 0.6958 week low confirms a further lower-low
AU Trade Balance (Thu 00:30 UTC) and RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 UTC) are the next AUD-side risks
Lower highs since Monday; tight base above week low.
The pair broke out of the Thursday–Monday 0.7004–0.7042 range during Tuesday's Asia session on the RBA's dovish hike, extended to the tue low of 0.69655 in NY hours, then printed a new week low at 0.69583 on today's trimmed-mean CPI miss. Since then price has compressed in a 20-pip band beneath EMA(20). Rallies have faded at a lower high of 0.69808 and the descending trendline off Tuesday's high, with RSI(14) holding around 40. The weekly open at 0.70068 and 0.7000 psych sit well above as the broken range base.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.7000, 0.70068
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.69808 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.69583 week low extends the lower-low sequence from Monday's high
Recovery of 0.7000 psych and the 50% retrace of the Mon–Wed drop puts the weekly open at 0.70068 back in play
AU Trade Balance (Thu 00:30 UTC) and RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 UTC) are the next AUD-side risk
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7039, basing above week low.
The week opened with a gap lower to 0.7007. The last push back to 0.7039 in Monday's NY session gave way after the RBA's dovish hike in Tuesday's Asia session. That flushed the pair through 0.7000, and NY hours extended the drop to the Tuesday low at 0.6966. Today's soft trimmed-mean CPI knocked price from the pre-cpi high at 0.6994 to a new week low at 0.6958, but the pair has since recovered and is compressing just under ema20 near 0.6977. RSI(14) is holding around 40 and the lower-high trendline from Tuesday is capping each bounce.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.69943, 0.70068
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and August PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.6958 week low extends the lower-low sequence; holding above the 0.6966 tue low keeps the current base intact
H1 close above ema20 and the lower-high trendline near 0.6981 opens a test of the 0.6994 pre-cpi high
Recovery above 0.7000 into the 0.7007 weekly open (≈61.8% of the Monday high to week low fib) would invalidate the lower-high structure
Lower highs since RBA reversal; tight base above 0.6958-0.6966.
The RBA 'dovish hike' reversed Tuesday's Asia-session pop at 0.7029. That broke the Thursday–Monday 0.7004–0.7042 range and started a post-RBA drop, which extended to a 0.6958 week low on today's trimmed-mean CPI miss. Price is now compressing in the low 0.697s beneath EMA(20) near 0.6980 with RSI(14) around 40, and the Tuesday low at 0.6966 was retested and held into London. Lower highs are intact: the CPI spike high at 0.6994 sits near the 50% retrace of the post-RBA drop, just under the 0.7007 weekly open.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.6994, 0.7007
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.6994 CPI spike high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6966 Tuesday low exposes the 0.6958 week low
Reclaiming the 0.7007 weekly open returns price to the prior range and negates the range break
Lower-high/lower-low sequence below the weekly open, consolidating near the week low.
The RBA hike spike to 0.7029 in Tuesday's Asia session was rejected and reversed below 0.7000 after Bullock's cautious guidance. That RBA reversal extended into a Tuesday NY-session low at 0.6966 and set a clean run of lower highs from Monday's 0.7039 week high. Wednesday's in-line CPI and soft trimmed mean printed a fresh week low at 0.6958. Price is now pinned below EMA(20) near 0.6980 with RSI(14) near 43, while the 0.6994 CPI high and the 0.7007 weekly open sit overhead.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.69943, 0.70068
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6994 cpi high breaks the lower-highs trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6966 tue low and the 0.6958 week low confirms another lower-low
Sustained hold back above ema20 near 0.6980 would signal the RBA reversal is stalling into range
Lower highs 0.7029/0.7007/0.6994 and lower lows 0.6966/0.6958, price basing just above week low.
The week opened at 0.7007 after a gap below Friday's 0.7025 close. Monday stayed in a 0.7005–0.7039 range until Tuesday's Asia session, when Bullock's 'peak may be in' comments after the dovish RBA hike turned the move and took the pair through 0.7000. NY hours extended the slide to the Tue NY low at 0.6966. Wednesday's in-line CPI and soft trimmed mean spiked price between the cpi high at 0.6994 and a fresh week low at 0.6958, printing a third lower high along the trendline. Price is holding below the EMA20 near 0.6982 and the EMA50 near 0.6993, although RSI(14) made a higher low (~33 vs ~30) at the new price low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69817, 0.69943, 0.70068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6994 cpi high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of 0.7000 and the 0.7007 weekly open (61.8% of the week range fib) would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6966 Tue NY low and a break of the 0.6958 week low would void the RSI divergence and extend lower lows
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 near 0.6982 keep pullbacks capped inside the downtrend
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
AU Trade Balance (Thu 00:30 UTC) and the RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 UTC) are the next AUD-side risk
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.7000 after Monday range broke.
Monday held a 0.7005–0.7039 range above the weekly open. The break came in Tuesday's Asia session, when AUD reversed after Bullock's 'dovish hike' and slid through 0.7000, with NY-session follow-through to the Tue low at 0.69655. Wednesday's Asia CPI bar (soft trimmed mean) printed a fresh week low at 0.69583 before recovering partly. Price sits under the EMA20 near 0.6982 and a lower-high trendline, and each bounce has stalled below the prior lower high.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6982, 0.69943, 0.70068
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.69943 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.69583 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.7000 and the 0.70068 weekly open, which sits near the 61.8% fib of the week's decline, would return price to Monday's range
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
AU Trade Balance and RBA Financial Stability Review early Thu add Asia-session risk
Lower highs and lower lows from the post-RBA reversal.
AUDUSD topped at 0.7039 on Monday. It then reversed through 0.7000 psych during Tuesday's Asia session after Bullock's 'dovish hike' undercut the RBA move, and extended to a Tue low of 0.6966 into the NY session. A double cap at 0.6989 held the bounce, and Wednesday's AU CPI spike briefly broke it before the trimmed-mean miss produced a false break and rejection to a fresh week low at 0.6958. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.6983, which is sloping lower, and RSI(14) is near 39. Each recovery this week has stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the RBA drop fib.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6983, 0.69894, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.6989 double cap and ema20 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6958 week low confirms another lower-low in the downtrend
Reclaiming 0.7000 psych, near the 61.8% of the RBA drop fib, would challenge the post-RBA structure
Stepped lower highs and lower lows from 0.7039 to 0.6958.
The week opened at 0.7007, below last Friday's 0.7025 close, and capped at 0.7039 on Monday. Tuesday's RBA hike produced a spike to the 0.7029 rba high, then a rejection on Bullock's 'peak may be in' comments. The NY session extended the slide to the 0.6966 tue ny low. Today's soft trimmed-mean CPI knocked price from the 0.6994 cpi high to a fresh week low at 0.6958, leaving a clean series of lower highs with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.69583, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69943, 0.70067, 0.70287
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6994 cpi high and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs; 0.7000/0.7007 tue high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.6958 week low extends the lower-low sequence below the 38.2% level of the rba leg fib
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read via USD and yields
A move back above the 0.7029 rba high would negate the post-RBA downtrend structure
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.7000; Asian range broken on CPI.
AUDUSD gapped lower at the 0.7007 weekly open and has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7039 peak. Tuesday's RBA pop to the 0.7029 rba high reversed into 0.6978 after Bullock's less-urgent guidance, and NY hours extended the move to the 0.6966 tue ny low. A tight Asian range capped at 0.6989 then broke on the Aus monthly CPI release, printing a fresh week low at 0.6958, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.70067, 0.70287
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6989 asia range top, also the 38.2% retrace of the week's decline and near EMA(20), would neutralise the CPI break
Failure to hold the 0.6958 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.7000 and the 0.7007 weekly open would break the lower-highs trendline from the rba high
US ADP and core PCE from 12:15 UTC today, plus month/quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows after range break; tight Asia range capped at ema20.
AUDUSD held a 0.7006–0.7039 range around the 0.7007 weekly open on Monday. It broke lower on Tuesday after the RBA's 'dovish hike': the spike to the 0.7029 RBA high reversed on Bullock's hold comments, and NY extended to a 0.6966 week low as US 10Y yields pushed above 5.2%. The rebound stalled at 0.6989, the 38.2% retracement of the RBA drop and now level with a flattening EMA(20), and the Asia session has compressed between the 0.6976 Asia low and that cap with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.70068, 0.70287
What it said to watch
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC: a hot print could revisit 0.7000 and the weekly open at 0.7007, while a soft print puts the 0.6966 week low in play
An H1 close above the 0.7007 weekly open, near the 61.8% retracement, breaks the post-RBA lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6976 Asia low exposes the week low at 0.6966
A sustained hold above ema20 at 0.6989 would turn the Asia range into a broader base
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
The rba high at 0.7029 caps the week's post-decision structure
00:03 UTC
Downtrend since RBA, pausing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.69878
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.7000 after breaking the prior week's 0.7005–0.7045 range.
The week opened with a gap lower at 0.70068 and drifted inside the prior range until Tuesday's Asia session. Price spiked to the 0.70287 RBA high on the hike, then Bullock's comments that the board had debated holding drove a reversal through the 0.7000 psych level to the 0.6978 post-RBA low, with the move extending to a 0.69655 week low in the NY session on a firm USD. The late-NY bounce has stalled at the 38.2% fib of that drop, near 0.6990. Price is flat just below EMA(20) at about 0.6989 in quiet Asian hours, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70068, 0.70287
What it said to watch
AU monthly CPI at 01:30 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y, trimmed 3.6%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.70068 weekly open would negate the post-RBA lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6978 post-RBA low reopens the 0.69655 week low
Rejection at the 50–61.8% fib (0.6997–0.7005) keeps the RBA high out of reach
US ADP and core PCE from 12:15 UTC Wed are the next USD-side risk